2013 FA arms

[JohnBriggs12]

This may be the 127th time I have proposed this, but go get Javier Vazquez:

 

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2012/12/javier-vazquez-may-return-wants-to-join-contender.html

 

He pitched nearly 200 innings with a 3.69 ERA in 2011 with the Marlins. His only truly terrible year (at least relatively given his career) came with the Yankees the year before. 9 of the 10 years before that he threw 200+ innings, and the year he didn't he threw 198. Plus, he's 3 years removed from a Cy Young caliber season with the Braves. Not a world beater, but consistently solid and injury free, and there's enough there to believe he has enough left in the tank for a comeback season. Yes, he gives up the long ball, and of course it would have to come at the right price.

 

And at least we wouldn't have to worry about the Yankees getting involved.

 

I'm in Chicago, and the White Sox fans wanted him out of there badly. So to say he only had one bad year is wrong. He was bad in Chicago 2 out of 3 years.

 

I'd take him for the right price (very, very cheap and very incentive laden), but no way is he a number 2. No way I'd give him a rotation spot either. Bring him in and let him earn it. There's a lot of question marks. He hasn't been a number 2 since his days in Montreal. I'd put the over/under for HR allowed at about 33. Anytime he's pitched in a hitter friendly park, he's not been good. He's an extreme flyball pitcher. It's no accident his two best recent years were with Atlanta and Florida. His Florida numbers are very deceiving too. That year he allowed a line drive percentage of 23%. Major league average is 19-20% He also has the disturbing tendency to sail through a lineup twice then boom, lose it quickly before a manager can react. Career wise, he allows a .466 slugging percentage the 3rd time through the lineup.

 

He's just as likely to post an ERA over 4.50 as he is to post one under 4 at this stage.

 

Be careful what you wish for here. I think the lack of activity by Melvin has some of you guys doing too much wishful thinking looking for that magic guy. Vazquez isn't it.

[Ennder]

I'd love Vazquez but I don't know that he sees us as contenders.

[colbyjack]

Be careful what you wish for here. I think the lack of activity by Melvin has some of you guys doing too much wishful thinking looking for that magic guy. Vazquez isn't it.

 

For the record, I'm not suggesting that Vazquez should be the No. 2 starter or that he's any kind of "magic guy," nor is this a response to Melvin's lack of movement (as I really do like the patience he displayed in making the additions he did for the bullpen). I just have always liked Vazquez during his career and think he could provide valuable depth for a team with legitimate postseason aspirations. It could allow the Brewers to be creative with the rest of their staff, possibly pushing a guy to the bullpen and/or back to AAA for added seasoning to provide mid/late season reinforcements.

 

And if the Red Sox are perceived as contenders (one of the teams that has shown interest in Vazquez), the Brewers should be too. That said, as others have suggested, the money would have to be right, and that alone could squash the idea.

[brewcrewdue80]

via MLBTR:

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2013/01/cardinals-notes-lohse-diaz-alvarez.html

 

Lohse rightly has yet to receive an offer this winter! I was going to respond to an above statement on Vazquez giving you just as likely a chance of pitching above 4.5 to under 4.0. Well Lohse for his career has only 3 seasons out of 12 where he's been an under 4era pitcher. And 5 have been 5 or above! I think my opinion that Lohse will re-sign with Stl is going to turn true. I just wonder if Stl's offer reaches 10mil or more now.

What's happening with Lohse could be good for QO'd teams down the road in the player accepting it.

 

 

Anyway, Vazquez. Considering what he's been paid over his history, I would think he stands to get 5-7mil from a team that decides they want him. What would be your idea of what price you offer to him? It is rather disconcerning to me to see a player return to baseball after retiring as I feel majority of return from retirements are due to financial problems. Which scares me as a person likely to not give 100% the majority of the time once paid. At Vazquez's age that is. Having been a former Yankee I just think deep down there's a tie in with what Pettite having retired/comeback and now getting a great payday that Vazquez is trying to take advantage to join a team like Boston/NY who don't need to care about money or results as Vazquez can be replaced with more money thrown to someone else who's available on the market.

And like stated above, you're looking at a SP who gives up the HR. Would you accept a 180-200IN season from Vazquez with 25-34HRs given up? That's what he'd project to which would equate to a HR+ per start.

There are guys out there I'd take before Vazquez and at an equal or less cost. At least they've played within the last year.

[Mass Haas]

Gee, do you think Javier Vazquez expressed the scouts last night? Were the Brewers there? That's like Greinke's last start before the trade to Anaheim in terms of beneficial impact.

[brewcrewdue80]

Howell and Frasor have deals in place with the Dodgers/Rangers respectively. That would leave only Farnsworth/Rauch as RPs Melvin had any interest in.

 

In comparison Howell is set to make 2.85Mil with incentives to earn just over 4mil.

Frasor's deal is for 1.5mil.

[nate82]

Valverde for 1-2m would be a very nice deal for the Brewers. He may even come cheaper than that.

[monty57]

Lohse rightly has yet to receive an offer this winter! I was going to respond to an above statement on Vazquez giving you just as likely a chance of pitching above 4.5 to under 4.0. Well Lohse for his career has only 3 seasons out of 12 where he's been an under 4era pitcher. And 5 have been 5 or above! I think my opinion that Lohse will re-sign with Stl is going to turn true. I just wonder if Stl's offer reaches 10mil or more now.

What's happening with Lohse could be good for QO'd teams down the road in the player accepting it.

 

No one is going to give up a 1st rounder for Lohse and still pay him what he wants, so the odds of him returning to St Louis have to be pretty high. Other players will see this, and teams are going to have to be very careful about making qualifying offers in the future, as most "marginal" players (good players who teams may not give up a 1st rounder for) will accept. Therefore teams will only make the offer if they are absolutely certain they want the player back for an expensive one-year deal. There are going to be a lot less "sandwich" picks in the future.

[Roderick]

No one is going to give up a 1st rounder for Lohse and still pay him what he wants, so the odds of him returning to St Louis have to be pretty high.

 

Doubtful. Lohse turned down the QO. And I don't think the Cardinals plan on signing another free agent starter as I they have multiple young guys that will compete for the spot. I suppose if he gets cheap enough.....

[jerichoholicninja]

If a team would sign Lohse to a minor league deal would they forfeit the pick? So could a team conceivably sign him to a minor league contract and give him a behind the doors guarantee that he would make the major league roster?

[monty57]

No one is going to give up a 1st rounder for Lohse and still pay him what he wants, so the odds of him returning to St Louis have to be pretty high.

 

Doubtful. Lohse turned down the QO. And I don't think the Cardinals plan on signing another free agent starter as I they have multiple young guys that will compete for the spot. I suppose if he gets cheap enough.....

 

If they're the only demand, the price would be pretty low. The question becomes "If his price tag becomes low enough, would a team be willing to give up a first round pick for him?" If the answer to that is "No," then St Louis is really the only team that would/could sign him, even if it meant coming back at veteran minimum wage for a season. That or he could pitch in indy ball or overseas.

 

It's kind of a catch-22. No one wants to sign him for a long-term deal because of the risks he carries (age and potential to regress), but no one wants to give up a 1st rounder for one year of Lohse. Now that he's a free agent, I don't even think he could get the Cards to sign him and then trade him to another team, as the rules don't allow a team to trade a FA immediately after signing him.

 

He's probably kicking himself right now for not taking the QO, and if he does go back to the Cards for a year, I'm sure he'll tell them that he fully plans on accepting the QO if offered next year. While Lohse is getting hosed on this deal, it would work out well for the Cards, who could get him cheap, pitch him for a couple of months, saving service time on the young guys, and then flip the inexpensive Lohse at the deadline while calling up a prospect.

[MNBrew]

I don't feel exactly too bad for any Scott Boras client who's been promised the moon by that mercenary of an agent! It's one thing to inflate a guy's value to other teams, but another thing to sell the player on it. But he keeps attracting players under the premise (perceived as such from the outside, anyway) that he'll get 'em maximum money, yet seems so focused on the dough that you wonder just how realistically he represents the best interests of the player, too.

 

Then again, it only takes one team or one unique circumstance to create the opportunity . . . Last year, Victor Martinez pulls up injured and there went Fielder to Detroit.

[nate82]

 

I don't even think he could get the Cards to sign him and then trade him to another team, as the rules don't allow a team to trade a FA immediately after signing him.

 

 

A player can be traded after signing with a team the player just has to approve the deal before hand. For example say the Brewers wanted to sign Lohse but they didn't want to give up that first rounder. The Brewers could work out a deal with the Cardinals in where they would get a prospect in return for Lohse. Though I believe this is highly unlikely to happen as Lohse is not worth a prospect to give up.

 

I do believe though that if the Cardinals would not have given Lohse the QO he would have been signed by someone by now.

[jerichoholicninja]

 

I don't even think he could get the Cards to sign him and then trade him to another team, as the rules don't allow a team to trade a FA immediately after signing him.

 

 

A player can be traded after signing with a team the player just has to approve the deal before hand. For example say the Brewers wanted to sign Lohse but they didn't want to give up that first rounder. The Brewers could work out a deal with the Cardinals in where they would get a prospect in return for Lohse. Though I believe this is highly unlikely to happen as Lohse is not worth a prospect to give up.

 

I do believe though that if the Cardinals would not have given Lohse the QO he would have been signed by someone by now.

 

I believe Selig has said he will not allow that to happen.

[Mass Haas]

Olney says teams have already internally discussed a modified sign-and-trade scenario, and he uses the Indians as an example. Since Cleveland has a protected first round pick and forfeited their second rounder to sign Nick Swisher, the next compensation free agent they sign will cause them to lose just a third rounder. They could sign a compensation free agent, then trade that player to another club in a pre-arranged deal, preumably for something deemed a bit more valuable than a third round pick.

 

Remember that the Brewers have the Supplemental Second Round (Competitive-Balance Lottery Pick) that is the rare type of tradeable pick under the new CBA. Currently that pick is #72 overall, which is, I believe, only six picks ahead of Cleveland's third round pick they would have to surrender if they signed, let's say, Kyle Lohse.

 

So the Brewers could conceivably give up the 72nd pick instead of the 17th (first round pick) if they were to work out a sign-and-trade with Cleveland. Would Cleveland do so just to "be nice" and move up just six-to-eight picks (approximate)? Can't imagine it would take much more to sweeten the pot, perhaps a low-level "Raul Mondesi, Jr.-type" prospect.

 

Now I know that the general sentiment here is no to Kyle Lohse, regardless of salary, draft pick loss, etc. Just tossing out a scenario that you know Scott Boras has already looked into brokering.

[JohnBriggs12]

Boras lucked out last winter when Victor Martinez got hurt and left an opening on a team with an aged wealthy owner that will spend whatever it takes to win before he passes on.

 

My guess is he's banking on something similar opening up for Lohse.

[colbyjack]

Draft picks can only be traded during the season. I'm guessing you can't use them as PTBNL either since that designation has been made with the new CBA.

[Roderick]

Draft picks can only be traded during the season. I'm guessing you can't use them as PTBNL either since that designation has been made with the new CBA.

 

What Olney was saying that might be a workaround is have Cleveland sign Lohse. They would lose only their third round pick (protected 1st, 2nd for Swisher). Then they trade Lohse to whichever team had put the deal together for a prospect that has more value than a 3rd pick but less than the compensation 1st round pick the team would normally lose. They would probably need MLB approval for this workaround, unless Cleveland actually kept him as in linked scenario.

 

http://wahoosonfirst.com/2013/01/01/why-the-indians-should-sign-kyle-lohse/

[Mass Haas]

Draft picks can only be traded during the season. I'm guessing you can't use them as PTBNL either since that designation has been made with the new CBA.

 

Party pooper.

 

But, as Roderick notes above, a trade could still happen, it just means that the competitive balance draft pick is off the books.

[monty57]

That's an interesting scenario, Mass Haas. It also means that good-but-not-great players could be more likely to be signed by teams that have already picked up a better free agent. In your scenario, Cleveland could just sign Lohse to start for them, and they'd only give up a 3rd round pick for him as opposed to the 1st rounder most other teams would lose.

 

This may benefit big-money teams who are more likely to sign multiple big-money free agents in the same offseason.

[nate82]

That's an interesting scenario, Mass Haas. It also means that good-but-not-great players could be more likely to be signed by teams that have already picked up a better free agent. In your scenario, Cleveland could just sign Lohse to start for them, and they'd only give up a 3rd round pick for him as opposed to the 1st rounder most other teams would lose.

 

This may benefit big-money teams who are more likely to sign multiple big-money free agents in the same offseason.

 

Not necessarily because you also lose how much you can spend in the draft also. The Indians will actually have a lower amount that they can spend on the draft than the Brewers will with the loss of that 2nd round pick.

 

The Yankees will have a higher pool of funds to spend also.

[brewcrewdue80]

I read on MLBTR the same day they mentioned the Olney story a few posts later a story saying that that scenario isn't allowed.

So no, no sign and trades to avoid loss of 1st rd pick. Besides, if it were me, I'd screw the team over saying I wanted Lohse, I'll let you have so and so and then upon Lohse signing with the Indians in this case I'd not answer my phone anymore and leave them holding on to a sad, aging, pitcher for Multimillions of their payroll and laugh that they lost another pick.

[nate82]

I read on MLBTR the same day they mentioned the Olney story a few posts later a story saying that that scenario isn't allowed.

So no, no sign and trades to avoid loss of 1st rd pick. Besides, if it were me, I'd screw the team over saying I wanted Lohse, I'll let you have so and so and then upon Lohse signing with the Indians in this case I'd not answer my phone anymore and leave them holding on to a sad, aging, pitcher for Multimillions of their payroll and laugh that they lost another pick.

 

Nothing in the new CBA states that anything has changed in terms of sign and trades.

 

From the current CBA:

(5) Miscellaneous

(a) Any Club signing a contract with a Player under this Section

B after the expiration of the Quiet Period described in subsection

2(b) above may not assign his contract until after the next June 15.

However, notwithstanding the foregoing, such contract may be

assigned for other Player contracts and/or cash consideration of

$50,000 or less prior to the next June 16 if the Player gives written

consent to such transaction.

 

Source: 2012-2016 Basic Agreement

 

Though I do see where MLB does say it would be collusion but the players union would put up a big stink about it as this would help out a player. I don't really see the collusion part of this as MLB does in the case for Lohse.

 

And to your second point you would then have problems with MLB and would then be kicked out of the league.

[brewcrewdue80]

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2012/12/teams-could-seek-loopholes-for-compensation-free-agents.html

 

Here's the mention on MLBTR I had seen on not being able to sign and trade. And it is what would be considered collusion.

[Roderick]

That's an interesting scenario, Mass Haas. It also means that good-but-not-great players could be more likely to be signed by teams that have already picked up a better free agent. In your scenario, Cleveland could just sign Lohse to start for them, and they'd only give up a 3rd round pick for him as opposed to the 1st rounder most other teams would lose.

 

This may benefit big-money teams who are more likely to sign multiple big-money free agents in the same offseason.

 

Not necessarily because you also lose how much you can spend in the draft also. The Indians will actually have a lower amount that they can spend on the draft than the Brewers will with the loss of that 2nd round pick.

 

The Yankees will have a higher pool of funds to spend also.

 

I have seen a few articles talking about the downside of less money in the signing pool. But, unless you want to overpay the slot for a player that has college options to make sure you get him, I don't see the big deal. Yes, you have less money to spend on your draft picks, but you also have one less higher level draft pick to actually sign. Am I missing something else?