2013 FA arms

[reillymcshane]

My gut still agrees with those who've been lobbying for J.P. Howell, and I see some logic in Gorzelanny (SP & RP experience, a bit more initial RP success this year, but an arm that could still start or relieve and thus create options in times of need), too, though Gorzelanny's basic numbers seem to indicate he's average at best when he's going well, which would represent less of an upgrade from Parra/et al.

 

I've seen enough of Rauch (in his Twins stint) that I'm not overly sold on him, and Farnsworth and Frasor aren't necessarily potential "home run" acquisitions on the surface, either.

 

But I could see 1 or 2 of these guys because there are still too many potential bullpen holes to worry about and we need some quality depth, not just 7 passable, MLB-capable, non-disaster types of pitchers for 7 BP spots.

 

 

In his Twin stint, Rauch saved 21 of 25, and the Twins won 3 of the 4 games he blew the save in including 2 where he was credited with the win. So I'm not sure what you are objecting to based on his performance there. Look, he's not a world beater, but he's solid, doesn't walk a ton of guys and takes the ball on a regular basis. And he can close in an emergency As for concerns over his HR rate, it's a little high but mostly because of one year (2011) when he gave up 11. The Brewers got a lot of out of Saloman Torres in 2008, and Rauch is a similar type guy. His WHIP last year was under 1.00. Compare that to the Brewer pen last year: Axford 1.442, K-Rod 1.333, Loe 1.434, Veras 1.507, and Parra 1.653.

I think Rauch is nothing more than an average guy. Not bad to have, but nothing exceptional. I think that he has closed drives up his price tag.

 

I'd be happy to have the guy for $1 million. But not $3-4 million like he made the last few years.

[MNBrew]

Rauch's basic numbers look solid or better. I already knew that. But you missed my main point: I've watched him enough that I'm not sold on him. His stretch as the Twins closer was good. In his Twins time after that, he wasn't anything overly stellar and there was good reason the Twins were not overly reluctant to let him walk as a FA.

 

Heck, even when he was pitching with excellent results (esp. in 2011), lots of folks here would say they didn't trust K-Rod even though the numbers said there wasn't a reason for concern (again, when he was going well, NOT in 2012 when he couldn't get anyone out or hit the side of a barn ... from inside the barn! ... which was painful beyond belief). It's a similar comparison that probably strikes a more familiar chord for Brewers fans.

 

Reilly summarized my point well enough: He's just a guy -- serviceable but nothing terribly special. . . . I'd take him at $2M-ish per year at most, but he's potentially not much better than Kam Loe was for most of his Brewers career (excluding Sept 2012 when whatever was left in the tank was obviously way gone), and for that reason, signing him as a FA wouldn't necessarily hurt & might even help, but it certainly wouldn't have me jumping for joy.

[brewcrewdue80]

The hard part is that we already have 10-11 relievers on the 40 man roster (and only one spot open at this time).

 

I just wonder about some of our existing players. Like Josh Stinson. The guy walked 71 and struck out 91 in 145 innings at AA. He had a 1.638 WHIP. Those numbers are kind of crappy. Perhaps the team thinks a lot of the guy, but you have to wonder if a guy like Storey doens't have more upside than Stinson.

 

Well, if Stinson reached 145innings he obviously started quite a few games versus bullpen. Many times high whip guys as starters improve out of the bullpen because typically their K/9 rates rise because theyre throwing harder throughout 1inning versus conserving for a 5+in outing. So gotta guess Stinson showed Brewers something coming out of the Bullpen vs as a Starter.

Think Wade Davis of Tampa as recent example. He doubled his K rate % from about 15-30+%

That may be what Brewers are looking at in keeping Stinson on roster for Bullpen use.

[MNBrew]

One spot open? Really? No. Try at least 3:

 

- The only seemingly taken spots are Axford, Henderson, Badenhop, & Kintzler.

- The rotation has Yo, Estrada, Fiers, Rogers, & Peralta, plus Narveson, Thornburg, & other young guys.

 

...Narveson may look good now, but way too many variables still exist to say he's a sure thing for the Opening Day roster.

...Thornburg, Fiers, Peralta, Kintzler, Henderson all have options, as do many others who have less MLB time than them.

...Stinson is but one of many guys who could contribute something or could amount to nothing.

...Lots of other things could change the entire picture.

[monty57]

I think Melvin came into the offseason hoping to pick up a couple of "proven" relief pitchers for $2-3MM each. Then the market opened and guys he was looking at were going for $4-6MM each, so he turned to the "veteran starter" market, hoping to be able to sign someone for a maximum of two seasons (preferably one) at no more than a certain price (probably $8-10MM). Again, the market opened and the prices were too high. Now, he's letting the market play out a little to see if some of the bids for the second tier pitchers are more in line with the Brewer budget. His top priority has to be getting some relievers, so hopefully he can find some guys without too many "warts" at a discount price, leaving him some flexibility to either sign a starter to a one-year deal at the end of the offseason, or have some dry powder for a mid-season pickup if the need arises.

 

It's no fun getting a budget cut. It's really no fun getting a budget cut when most of your competitors' budgets are going up, causing prices to rise across the board. I think I have to applaud Melvin for not getting into the feeding frenzy. I just hope there's some chum left over after the sharks are done.

 

I do remember that going into the 2010 season, Melvin was looking to trade Fielder for prospects. When the market was different than he expected, he ended up doing a complete 180 and trading prospects for Greinke and Marcum. I think Melvin went into this season looking to add free agent pieces to compete. With the market apparently not what he expected, I wouldn't be surprised to see another 180.

[wisniewski]

So now that Dempster, Sanchez, and Jackson are signed and off the market, any speculation where Lohse lands and for how much? The interesting thing (to me anyway) is that we haven't even heard his name mentioned linked to any team.

 

I'm guessing he lands with Texas.

[reillymcshane]

So now that Dempster, Sanchez, and Jackson are signed and off the market, any speculation where Lohse lands and for how much? The interesting thing (to me anyway) is that we haven't even heard his name mentioned linked to any team.

 

I'm guessing he lands with Texas.

Several writers think he might end up back in St. Louis. Some concern about Carpenters health and Lynne's 2nd half collapse.

 

The fact that he's tied to compensation has certainly hurt him.

[jerichoholicninja]

So now that Dempster, Sanchez, and Jackson are signed and off the market, any speculation where Lohse lands and for how much? The interesting thing (to me anyway) is that we haven't even heard his name mentioned linked to any team.

 

I'm guessing he lands with Texas.

 

Just saw on MLB Trade Rumors the Rangers have said they have no interest in Lohse. No one should, but someone is going to give him multiple years and multiple millions for an extremely below average to terrible pitcher. Please don't be Doug.

[brewcrewdue80]

I predicted the moment the Cards offered him the QO he would end up back with the Cards. I believe take Molina out of the Catchers box and Lohse is a 4.5ERA pitcher waiting to happen. I'd rather keep my pick draft a pitcher, and insert him in the Opening day 5th Starter than Lohse and expect near same results only more fun to watch that young kid develop rather than a sad decline with Lohse tied to 13mil on a team's payroll.

I don't know why Lohse has succeeded the last two seasons, if Molina just calls an absolute helluva game at catcher, or if Molina being who he is gets a slightly wider strike zone. But, I seriously believe any team without an amazing arm/pitch calling will watch Lohse implode that season.

Take away any year with Stl and he's never pitched below 4era. 3years with Stl under 4era across 96starts but 40 starts over 2seasons of Closer to 6ERA!

I wouldn't think losing my #1 draft pick is worth Lohse alone. Not even for 1mil a season. But around the 13+ hes likely seeking for age 34 and beyond seasons? I hope he goes back to Stl on a 8mil contract and he loses money for not taking their QO just to shove it in Lohse and Boras's Face!

[brewcrewdue80]

Jeff Karstens as a SP pickup? non-tendered by Pirates due to make almost 4mil. He's kept his era under 4 and does pitch half his games in to the 7th inning historically. He minimizes pitch counts as well to get there. For the expected price sans injury risk 4mil a year seems like a no brainer signing by any team for him. Pirates let him go because of his price and wanting to bring up the young arms. I just feel like he's a pitcher whom can instill some veteran knowledge about how he goes about pitching a game with "stuff" that grades probably around what the Brewers young arms have. The key being is in that he can get to the 7th inning around 80pitches. Having someone like that to watch and learn from has to be more valuable than listening to a pitching coach try explaining/pounding it over conversation/video. Seeing is believing to me and he could show the arms how it's done. Add that should Karstens remain healthy pitching below 4era over 30starts at 4mil a year? How brilliant of a signing does that look end of 2013 season?

I was one who wanted a pursue of Brandon McCarthy who got 8mil/yr. Karstens wouldn't be much less of a pitcher for half the price.

So what am I missing? in that Karstens hasn't been pursued much by way of rumors? And I mention Karstens since of the FA Arms out there this one seems like one of the best options when it comes to a small market keeping payroll reduced team like the Brewers.

 

Oh not mention this is a mid level guy who is being mentioned as a potential suitor for the Angels with their loss of pitchers. If he's good enough to be linked to the Angels, why not add him to the Brewers?

[umphrey]

Some of the relievers left:

 

Matt Lindstrom

Jon Rauch

Brandon Lyon

JP Howell

Kyle Farnsworth

Vicente Padilla

 

Rauch probably makes the most sense to me, though I would definitely pick Lyon. Lindstrom would be good too.

[Mr Southpaw]

due80, Karstens looks like a value pickup as long as he is healthy. I would not have a problem with a 2 year/$6-7 mill contract.

 

Of the relievers, I would still like to see Howell. Another lefty for flexibility would be great.

[PrinceEatMeat]

Just thought I'd throw this in here, because it involves Lohse. But I still laugh at how stupid Bowden is. Apparently he's ignoring the fact that we are basically maxed out on payroll already. Either that, or he just flat out doesn't know. Some, "Insider". The price on Lohse isn't going to come down.

 

http://insider.espn.go.com/blog/the-gms-office/post?id=5652

[RockCoCougars]

Thankfully, the Cardinals made the offer to Lohse. In and of itself, that will prevent Melvin from pursuing him.

[brewcrewdue80]

due80, Karstens looks like a value pickup as long as he is healthy. I would not have a problem with a 2 year/$6-7 mill contract.

 

Of the relievers, I would still like to see Howell. Another lefty for flexibility would be great.

 

Thanks for responding 2nd time I'd mentioned Karstens and no one gave me any added comments!

 

Figuring his expected arb was to 3.8mil I was thinking 2years 7.5mil would get it done. Much like Gorzelanny getting about the same amount yearly he was expected to get for arb. Either way, I posted somewhere having figured it out Karstens 40starts last 2years he pitched to a 3.54era I believe. Sure he doesn't have the K/9 flashy stuff but lets' face it when he was on he shutout the Brewers for 7ip last year when we were in the midst of our end of season run. And he may have gone a CGSH had he not left for a tight hamstring. Subsequently, he came back 5days later to pitch vs. Brewers again and then gave up 4ER getting only 1out Obviously still hurt. Even with that 1out outing he pitched less than 4era. He did come back and finish the year with a couple starts and bullpen time since Pirates were out of it. So you would think he is healthy. For basically League Avg pay, I don't see the risk in giving Karstens a 2yr contract even if he winds up with 20starts a year like the past 2.

 

What gets me is he's reduced his Hits/9 BBs/9 and HR/9 each of the last 2years and raised his K/9 last season. Encouraging signs. And both of those correspond to the last two years of him becoming strictly a Starter. The previous years he had been flip flopped from Pen to SP. I think his role as a SP must make him more comfortable over out of the Pen. He just seems like a safe acquisition when it comes to performance. At best like 2011 hes 25+ starts under 3.5era. At worst he's a 4.5-5Era Which is allowable at the back end for 3.8mil. But at best? That's a 10mil or more season from him in value and you only paid 7.5! When it comes to Backend starters to acquire his ceiling is high. His floor isn't steep. Even his occasional minor injuries that puts him on 15DL wouldn't be the worst thing as a AAA Callup to throw one of the Young guns in whom we are looking at as a full time starter currently gets his feet wet. He was Pitts #2 starter to begin last season. So he'd easily slot in #2/3 for Brewers. The whole idea in this is you acquire someone who in almost certainty will earn his pay on contract. I mean Relievers are being offered 3-6mil. This is a proven Starter in just that range with Bullpen experience. You could incentive the deal on 25,30 starts made as well. say 250k for 25th and another 500k for 30. maybe as high as 500k for 25 and 1mil for 30. Would put him at 5.3mil for 30starts and he'd have given us everything we are seeking.

[jerichoholicninja]

Has Hisanori Takahashi's name came up at all as a reliever? I kind of assumed since he's bounced around in his short time in the majors he kind of sucked but I just looked at his stats and they are pretty solid.

 

Here are his overall numbers in 3 ML seasons:

3.97 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 3.1 BB/9, 8.2 K/9, .246 BAA

 

.238 BAA vs LHB

.252 BAA vs RHB

 

However they get better as a reliever:

3.59 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 3.1 BB/9, 8.4 K/9, .229 BAA

 

Obviously not a lights out guy but doesn't walk many and strikes out his fair share. Plus, he'll turn 38 during the season so probably won't be asking for multiple years and this late in free agency he should come pretty cheap.

[monty57]

Karstens might be a decent arm to add if we got him cheap. My big worry with any pitcher who throws in a big park is how well he'd do in Miller Park. ERA+ is league and park adjusted, and Karstens ERA+ is: 2006 - 120; 2007 - 42; 2008 - 104; 2009 - 77; 2010 - 82; 2011 - 110; 2012 - 94.

 

2009 was the first year he pitched over 100 innings. It would be interesting to see his splits as a starter vs reliever, because if you are correct that he has pitched better as a starter, he could be undervalued in the same way I feel Estrada is undervalued. In 2009, he only started 13 of his 39 games and in 2010 he started 19 of his 26 games. The flipping between starter and reliever could help explain why he posted a 77 & 82 ERA+. Regardless, if we could get a roughly league average guy for a two-year $7-8MM deal, it would be pretty low-risk, as barring injury we should get some good starts and be able to trade him away as the prospects force him out of the rotation.

 

It would fit with Melvin's other moves this offseason... boring but helpful.

[brewcrewdue80]

Karstens might be a decent arm to add if we got him cheap. My big worry with any pitcher who throws in a big park is how well he'd do in Miller Park. ERA+ is league and park adjusted, and Karstens ERA+ is: 2006 - 120; 2007 - 42; 2008 - 104; 2009 - 77; 2010 - 82; 2011 - 110; 2012 - 94.

 

2009 was the first year he pitched over 100 innings. It would be interesting to see his splits as a starter vs reliever, because if you are correct that he has pitched better as a starter, he could be undervalued in the same way I feel Estrada is undervalued. In 2009, he only started 13 of his 39 games and in 2010 he started 19 of his 26 games. The flipping between starter and reliever could help explain why he posted a 77 & 82 ERA+. Regardless, if we could get a roughly league average guy for a two-year $7-8MM deal, it would be pretty low-risk, as barring injury we should get some good starts and be able to trade him away as the prospects force him out of the rotation.

 

It would fit with Melvin's other moves this offseason... boring but helpful.

 

If Karstens was a higher Whip pitcher I'd worry a little more about the length of park pitched in. Miller Park is the 2nd highest park he's given up HRs after PNC but majority of those came before he went to starter 2years ago. And 1 in that still injured .1 4er outing after shutting Brewers out the start before.

 

Something I am reminded is Pittsburg has had their fare share of All-Star Relievers in Meeks,Hanrahan and someone else I'm forgetting. So, the team wouldn't keep Karstens in beyond the 8th to often even though he'd be at 80-90pitches after 7innings. I think had Karstens been in Milw 2012 with our Bullpen he'd have completed his share of 8innings maybe a CG if given the chance when you give him say 100-105pitch count quality starts before removing.

 

To put in perspective going over last 2seasons:

Gallardo avgs: 4.02pitches/AB 5.62 per out

Estrada avgs: 4.02pitches/AB 5.67 per out

Karstens avgs: 3.526/AB 4.83 per out

 

Even more on it is Karstens has 253IP over last 2seasons covering 1,040Batters throwing 3,668pitches

Estrada in his 2 years has 231IP covering 943batters while throwing move pitches than Karstens at 3,795!

I get that both Estrada and Gallardo have more swinging Strikes than Karstens Karstens at .312per Batter to Estrada's .425per batter only a tenth difference yet Karstens avg still .5less an AB.

 

Maybe theres just something Karstens can share with Estrada/Gallardo on approaching batters that could reduce their pitch counts to AB/per outs? With that said on a 98pitch count limit Karstens would avg better than 6.2IP per start at 6.76. You're looking at a guy when out there gives you near 7IP capability for what 4mil/yr? among a staff with Innings questions? And like I said if theres something he can share to reduce pitch totals to Estrada/Gallardo alone has to provide major value. You can see why I'm a fan of his and a Brewers signing.

[jerichoholicninja]

Has Hisanori Takahashi's name came up at all as a reliever? I kind of assumed since he's bounced around in his short time in the majors he kind of sucked but I just looked at his stats and they are pretty solid.

 

Here are his overall numbers in 3 ML seasons:

3.97 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 3.1 BB/9, 8.2 K/9, .246 BAA

 

.238 BAA vs LHB

.252 BAA vs RHB

 

However they get better as a reliever:

3.59 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 3.1 BB/9, 8.4 K/9, .229 BAA

 

Obviously not a lights out guy but doesn't walk many and strikes out his fair share. Plus, he'll turn 38 during the season so probably won't be asking for multiple years and this late in free agency he should come pretty cheap.

 

Signed a minor league deal with the Cubs. No one here would have complained about getting him on a minor league deal.

[Mr Southpaw]

Southpaw said.....Of the relievers, I would still like to see Howell. Another lefty for flexibility would be great.

 

Not Howell, but having the second leftie (Gonzalaz) really helps the flexibility.

[colbyjack]

This may be the 127th time I have proposed this, but go get Javier Vazquez:

 

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2012/12/javier-vazquez-may-return-wants-to-join-contender.html

 

He pitched nearly 200 innings with a 3.69 ERA in 2011 with the Marlins. His only truly terrible year (at least relatively given his career) came with the Yankees the year before. 9 of the 10 years before that he threw 200+ innings, and the year he didn't he threw 198. Plus, he's 3 years removed from a Cy Young caliber season with the Braves. Not a world beater, but consistently solid and injury free, and there's enough there to believe he has enough left in the tank for a comeback season. Yes, he gives up the long ball, and of course it would have to come at the right price.

 

And at least we wouldn't have to worry about the Yankees getting involved.

[jerichoholicninja]

When I read that I thought about him too. I think it would really depend on how much money he wants. Based on the contracts pitchers have been getting this offseason I would think he would get at least $8 million a year. I don't think not pitching for a year is going to prevent someone from giving him lots of money.

[reillymcshane]

Brett Myers off the market: http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2013/01/indians-to-sign-brett-myers.html

 

This leaves the following players:

 

Erik Bedard

Eric Braden

Aaron Cook

Freddy Garcia

Jair Jurrjens

Jeff Karstens

Kyle Lohse

Derek Lowe

Shaun Marcum

Daisuke Matsuzaka

Kevin Millwood

Roy Oswalt

Carl Pavano

Jonathan Sanchez

Joe Saunders

Chien-Ming Wang

Chris Young

Carlos Zambrano

 

With the exception of Lohse, everyone has some major issue (injury, age, effectiveness, etc.).

 

The list doesn't include Javier Vazquez, who is reportedly considering a comeback. Vazquez only wants to a play for a team that has a good chance at making the world series (AKA 'a ring harlot'). I doubt he'd consider the Crew a team with a 'good' chance, but you never know. He'd be a nice addition.

[monty57]

I've always liked Vazquez as well. Throws a lot of innings and strikes guys out. It'll be interesting to see what type of interest he draws and what type of contract he signs. Assuming he's healthy, I'd take him on a low-base, incentive-laden contract.

 

Off of Reilly's list, Karstens has already been discussed, and seems like he could be a decent fit. Marcum's been discussed a lot, but if he's still there in a month or so, he may be signable on a one-year deal.

 

I don't think I'd pay any of the other guys what they'd ask just to knock Fiers or Peralta out of the rotation.

[DR28]

This may be the 127th time I have proposed this, but go get Javier Vazquez:

 

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2012/12/javier-vazquez-may-return-wants-to-join-contender.html

 

He pitched nearly 200 innings with a 3.69 ERA in 2011 with the Marlins. His only truly terrible year (at least relatively given his career) came with the Yankees the year before. 9 of the 10 years before that he threw 200+ innings, and the year he didn't he threw 198. Plus, he's 3 years removed from a Cy Young caliber season with the Braves. Not a world beater, but consistently solid and injury free, and there's enough there to believe he has enough left in the tank for a comeback season. Yes, he gives up the long ball, and of course it would have to come at the right price.

 

And at least we wouldn't have to worry about the Yankees getting involved.

 

I couldn't agree more!!! I would love to have Jazy as our #2! Recent reports have him at 92-93... Take a gamble Doug!