2013 FA arms

[JohnBriggs12]

Dempster was reportedly offered 2 years / $26 million by KC. He turned it down, and the Royals dropped out after bidding 'escalated'.

 

http://www.kansascity.com/2012/11/29/3940310/contract-decisions-loom-for-royals.html

 

Price of FA pitching is only going higher. I have a feeling we end up with some back of the rotation veteran - a Joe Blanton type.

 

They don't have to necessarily settle for a "Joe Blanton" type assuming you mean innings guy with back end stuff. There are guys out there with better stuff but not the results recently that can likely be had on short term deals. Jonathon Sanchez and Francisco Liriano to name a couple. They could also give a shot to a veteran coming off of injury/poor performance like Oswalt or Pavano.

 

Then there's trade possibilities for guys on the final years of their contracts. Gavin Floyd, who's been discussed here for instance.

[fondybrewfan]

If we are limited to guys like Blanton we might as well just pass and put all of our eggs in our young starting pitchers. Blanton isn't any better than what we already have.

 

I still would be OK with Dempster but if he turned duwn $13 AAV then I want no part of something higher than that. If you are going to overpay; go after the bullpen and just let it ride with Gallardo, Fiers, Estrada, Rogers, Peralta, Thornburg, Burgos.

[brewmann04]

I think DM will not offer Dempster the 3 years and instead going the way of a reclaimation guy.

[fondybrewfan]

In all likelihood I think DM trades for a SP if he picks one up at all. It seems that he might have learned his lesson with Suppan and to a lesser extent Wolf. He has got some prospect chips to work with; I think he'll find someone he can control for at least 2 more years. Probably not a #1 type though.

[DR28]

Brewers have been in contact with Jason Grilli and Sean Burnett... I would love to add both of them to our bullpen!

 

Apparently Grilli's agent is Gary Sheffield... So we'll see how that works out.

[monty57]

With the young pitching the Brewers have coming up over the next few years, I've been against the Brewers signing anyone to a multi-year deal, so I'm glad to see guys like Dempster pricing themselves (in dollars and years) out of the Brewers' range... not because he couldn't help the 2013 Brewers (he could) but because we will have an excess of starting pitching soon, so there will be no reason to have an aging starter making an eight figure salary.

 

The Brewers should have surplus cash next year, so the best move may be to look for a "salary dump" player with one year left on his contract who they could get for little in trade as long as they pick up the contract. That player could eat up innings to rest some of the young arms (the ones who aren't ready for 200 innings) and could always be flipped mid-season if the Brewers aren't in it.

[trwi7]

Scott Kazmir is trying to make a comeback and is throwing 90-94 in Puerto Rico. I would take a shot on him.

[fondybrewfan]

Doug really has to get in touch with Tampa. I don't know if we have the A prospects to get Shields, Hellickson, etc but he at least has to give it a shot

 

I like Grilli much more than Burnett. However there just isn't a whole lot of Left handed reliever talent out there to get. Probably better off going after elite RH pitchers who can actually get left handers out

[sheetskout]

Brewers apparently called on Mark Lowe sometime this morning or late yesterday.

 

http://mlbbuzz.yardbarker.com/blog/mlbbuzz/article/sources_mark_lowe_of_interest_to_at_least_5_clubs/12358933

[JohnBriggs12]

Brewers apparently called on Mark Lowe sometime this morning or late yesterday.

 

http://mlbbuzz.yardbarker.com/blog/mlbbuzz/article/sources_mark_lowe_of_interest_to_at_least_5_clubs/12358933

 

Now they really are aiming Lowe! Seriously, this guy's an 11th or 12th man type. They need to focus a little higher on the reliever chain.

[JohnBriggs12]

Doug really has to get in touch with Tampa. I don't know if we have the A prospects to get Shields, Hellickson, etc but he at least has to give it a shot

 

I like Grilli much more than Burnett. However there just isn't a whole lot of Left handed reliever talent out there to get. Probably better off going after elite RH pitchers who can actually get left handers out

 

Call me suspicious, but Grilli was a journeyman until the last couple seasons in Pittsburgh, when he suddenly got good (though he faded badly in September with the heat on in Pittsburgh) and his numbers and K rate exploded. If I had to wager a guess, he got spooked when Melky got caught and that edge disappeared in September.

 

Burnett's been a little less spectacular but more consistent in his career though he faded down the stretch last year too. I prefer J.P. Howell over both of them.

[SRB]

If anyone is interested, I made a spreadsheet with every remaining free agent pitcher and their stats (IP - K/9 - ERA - FIP - xFIP) from last season and the last three seasons:

 

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AiT-S4-H5q9zdDl4bWdFSmJ5bTBha3Joc043eUZubHc#gid=0

 

I would make it so viewers can sort the columns, but not sure how to do that.

 

Interesting to compare the stats of some of the "bigger" names with other, equally-effective alternatives. It also makes Badenhop look like a very good pickup.

 

From an advanced statistical standpoint, the two best right-handed RP on the market look to be Koji Uehara and Jason Grilli, and the best left-handed RP is Sean Burnett, so it's encouraging that Melvin has been linked to Grilli/Burnett.

 

One name that jumps out at me is Roy Oswalt. He has maintained the best peripherals of any SP on the market not named Zack Greinke, could be had on a 1-2 year deal (probably relatively cheap), and is being severely undervalued because of a fluke ERA last season. Also has the benefit of bringing an elite veteran presence to an otherwise very young pitching staff that is still developing. I don't know if Melvin is interested though (or, if Oswalt would want to come to Milwaukee -- probably not).

[Tim_Unroe_Helped]

I'd like to see the Brewers go after Brandon McCarthy. I know there are concerns about him in that he doesn't strike out many batters, he has a little bit of an injury history, and he is coming off probably the most gruesome of his injuries coming up this year.

 

However, his pros are intriguing. He only walked opponents at a 5.1% rate last year and it was an astonishingly low 3.6% in 2011. The only returning Brewers' starter who had meaningful time with the Brewers last year with anything close to that was Marco Estrada, at 5.2%. Yovani Gallardo walked opponents at a 9.4% rate in 2012 and even Mike Fiers, known as a control pitcher, ended the year walking opponents at a 6.7% rate.

 

He also gave up home runs at a lower rate (2.1% in 2012, 1.6% in 2011) than any other returning Brewers starter last year. (Gallardo was at 3%, Estrada at 3.2%, Fiers at 2.2%).

 

Finally, he could play the role of an innings eater because of these statistics. While Yovani Gallardo is a legitimate #1 pitcher in the staff, the one thing he does struggle with is pitching late into games. In the last two years, Gallardo averaged 6.18 Innings / Start (2012) and 6.28 Innings / Start (2011). In addition, we have a very young pitching rotation and pitch counts will likely be watched. In the last two years, McCarthy, averaged 6.31 Innings / Start (2012, without the last game included due to the freak injury) and 6.83 Innings / Start (2011).

 

While I know he won't be that cheap (though might be able to get him for a discount due to his injury), he will (from what I've seen) almost certainly be much cheaper than Ryan Dempster. He is also younger than Dempster and while he doesn't strikeout batters at nearly the same rate as Dempster (McCarthy 15.6% in 2012 vs. 21.3% Dempster in 2012), his walk percentage (McCarthy 5.1% in 2012 vs. Dempster 7.3% in 2012) and home run percentage (McCarthy 2.1% in 2012 vs. Dempster 2.7% in 2012) are significantly better.

 

I know head injuries are a risky proposition, but we actually have some depth at the starting pitcher position this year (enough that 2 of Estrada, Fiers, Peralta, Narveson, and Rogers will likely start the year in the bullpen or the minors this year). It's not like we'd have to bring Joe Winkelsas or Sergio Mitre back if McCarthy isn't ready at the beginning of the year.

[DR28]

I'd like to see the Brewers go after Brandon McCarthy. I know there are concerns about him in that he doesn't strike out many batters, he has a little bit of an injury history, and he is coming off probably the most gruesome of his injuries coming up this year.

 

However, his pros are intriguing. He only walked opponents at a 5.1% rate last year and it was an astonishingly low 3.6% in 2011. The only returning Brewers' starter who had meaningful time with the Brewers last year with anything close to that was Marco Estrada, at 5.2%. Yovani Gallardo walked opponents at a 9.4% rate in 2012 and even Mike Fiers, known as a control pitcher, ended the year walking opponents at a 6.7% rate.

 

He also gave up home runs at a lower rate (2.1% in 2012, 1.6% in 2011) than any other returning Brewers starter last year. (Gallardo was at 3%, Estrada at 3.2%, Fiers at 2.2%).

 

Finally, he could play the role of an innings eater because of these statistics. While Yovani Gallardo is a legitimate #1 pitcher in the staff, the one thing he does struggle with is pitching late into games. In the last two years, Gallardo averaged 6.18 Innings / Start (2012) and 6.28 Innings / Start (2011). In addition, we have a very young pitching rotation and pitch counts will likely be watched. In the last two years, McCarthy, averaged 6.31 Innings / Start (2012, without the last game included due to the freak injury) and 6.83 Innings / Start (2011).

 

While I know he won't be that cheap (though might be able to get him for a discount due to his injury), he will (from what I've seen) almost certainly be much cheaper than Ryan Dempster. He is also younger than Dempster and while he doesn't strikeout batters at nearly the same rate as Dempster (McCarthy 15.6% in 2012 vs. 21.3% Dempster in 2012), his walk percentage (McCarthy 5.1% in 2012 vs. Dempster 7.3% in 2012) and home run percentage (McCarthy 2.1% in 2012 vs. Dempster 2.7% in 2012) are significantly better.

 

I know head injuries are a risky proposition, but we actually have some depth at the starting pitcher position this year (enough that 2 of Estrada, Fiers, Peralta, Narveson, and Rogers will likely start the year in the bullpen or the minors this year). It's not like we'd have to bring Joe Winkelsas or Sergio Mitre back if McCarthy isn't ready at the beginning of the year.

 

I completely agree about McCarthy... He would be worth the risk... I would also take a flier on Francisco Liriano, maybe pitching in the NL would be good for him!

 

I wouldn't mind this Rotation:

 

Gallardo

McCarthy

Peralta

Liriano

Rogers

[craigharmann]

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2012/12/brewers-at-impasse-in-talks-with-dempster.html

 

Looks like one pitcher is on the radar....but I'm liking that they don't want to give 3 years....but are talking trade for Holland or Dickey....they're definitely looking at pitching, which is where an upgrade could be made. Looking forward to something coming sometime...

[torts]

Royals offered 2/26 to Dempster, he declined. so thats now the brewers and royals who have made an offer he's turned down.

[reillymcshane]

Royals offered 2/26 to Dempster, he declined. so thats now the brewers and royals who have made an offer he's turned down.

Dempster believes that he'll get three years once other pitchers start getting 4 and 5 years. I can see Edwin Jackson and Sanchez getting 4 years (more for Sanchez). Not sure if Lohse will.

 

I guess Dempster can play it slow and see what develops. If the three year deal doesn't emerge, he can still get two years. It's unlikely all the teams interested will pull back their interest.

[jerichoholicninja]

Joe Blanton got $15 million over 2 years for the Angels. Is it me or does that seem very reasonable, almost a bargain?

[JohnBriggs12]

McCalvey reported that Melvin met today with the agent for J.P. Howell. He's also the agent for Edwin Jackson, Joe Saunders and Francisco Liriano.

 

A package deal perhaps? Jackson will want more than 2 years, but Saunders or Liriano could likely be had on less than 3.

[sheetskout]

Brewers talking Gorzelanny?

 

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2012/12/nl-central-notes-.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+MlbTradeRumors+%28MLB+Trade+Rumors%29

 

Don't judge quickly, check his stats again. It's really not bad if the price is right.

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/w/weeksri01.shtml

[reillymcshane]

Joe Blanton got $15 million over 2 years for the Angels. Is it me or does that seem very reasonable, almost a bargain?

Blanton's ERAs the last three years are 4.71, 5.01 and 4.82. He missed 2/3 of the 2011 season. His bWAR is -0.3 over the last three years (-0.1 last year). Fangraphs is much kinder to him - giving him WARs of 2.4, 0.6 and 1.8.

 

He keeps his walks down, but gives up lots of HRs.

 

To me he's maybe a $5 million a year guy. But with the way prices are going up, you never know.

 

He's probably a good fit for the Angels. He provides certainty at the back of the rotation. There's some value in that.

[SuddenRedScare]

Any interest on bringing back Carlos Villanueva if the price is right? Could be used in the rotation or in the middle/late innings as a replacement for Veras.

[yoshii8]

I'd like to see the Brewers take a shot on Tim Stauffer, I'm not sure if he'll be ready to play come spring training, but he was a lock down reliever back in 2010.

[recte44]

Sounded like Carlos V. wanted to be a starter and this was the main reason why he and Toronto parted ways.

[sheetskout]

And Grilli is about to be off the market too...

 

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2012/12/pirates-to-sign-jason-grilli.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+MlbTradeRumors+%28MLB+Trade+Rumors%29