2013 FA arms

[jerichoholicninja]

It's irrelevant now anyway since he's going to sign in Japan.

 

Since he was non-tendered doesn't that make him a free agent?

[JohnBriggs12]

The dip in velocity is worrisome, but can we stop calling him Suppan? Suppan was a bad signing because he never was a very good pitcher. Here were Suppan's WAR for the 3 years before Milwaukee: 1.3, 1.5, 1.7. Dempster the past three years: 3.2, 2.7, 3.3.

 

Dempster is 4 years older than Suppan was when the Brewers signed him. Sure his peak years have been better than Suppan's, but he's also looking for more than $13 million per year which is considerably higher per year than Suppan got. That is just nuts. That's not even figuring into the equation the internal options available now vs. 2007. There's no comparison so the need isn't as great now as it was back then.

 

BTW, Baseball-reference.com calculated Dempster's WAR at 0.5 in 2011. Just sayin.

[TheCrew07]

BTW, Baseball-reference.com calculated Dempster's WAR at 0.5 in 2011. Just sayin.

 

Not to open a can of worms about certain metrics again but obviously that's because Fangraphs had used the vastly overrated FIP family of derived calculations for it's WAR over the years. High K rate pitchers are going to have better FIPs and thus if they peform badly they were "unlucky vs expectations".

 

I agree, just say no to Dempster, stop the aging midling FA pitcher madness now. There is no good reason beyond the 2013 season to have an aging FA starting pitcher signed, and I've previously made my argument against the perceived need for 2013 as well. We have plenty enough pitching depth all the way around in the short and long term. I for one am excited to see how the young pitching shakes out and which pitchers end up in which roles. I think this is an exciting time in regards to the future of the franchinse and personally I'm willing to be patient enough to see the season through with young players in important roles.

 

There will be ups and downs, but it should be a fun ride.

[JohnBriggs12]

Boy, Tim Dierkes on his NL central chat today on mlbtraderumors sounded like Dempster's agent suggesting his worth at $42 million over 3 years. Of course I believe he's a Cub fan so what does he know? When challenged that Melvin wouldn't go that high, he altered it to 3 yrs/$39 million. Then he went on to talk about Brewers needing innings guys, the old bromide that Fiers can't possibly be as good as his peripherals, and that the Brewers well is dry of prospects. He even went so far as to say Rogers major league performance hasn't been there.

 

I couldn't type fast enough to challenge virtually everything he said. Of course, none of my comments got through. He couldn't possibly have actually watched Rogers and Peralta pitch for the Brewers and make the comments he did, nor did he even acknowledge they had guys behind them at AA and AAA with a at least a chance of being major league pitchers. This isn't the Brewers of 2007 (Suppan), when the best hopes for the future were Zack Jackson, Ben Hendrickson and Dana Eveland nor is it 2010 (Wolf), when the best hope was Amaury Rivas. The guys now may not make it either, but there's more of them with big time arms then there was back then.

[torts]

haha I know man, I was right there with you on his comments on those guys... what a butt

[recte44]

Jair Jurjjens is being non-tendered by Atlanta.

[markedman5]

yep and Moylan

 

MLB ‏@MLB

OFFICIAL: @Braves non-tender RHPs Jair Jurrjens and Peter Moylan, making both free agents.

[JohnBriggs12]

There are some very serviceable arms on the non-tender list in addition to Jurjens. The market for crafty lefties is now quite saturated with Gorzellany and Lannan both non-tendered. Then from the right side there's one time public enemy #1, Jeff Karstens. Personally, I like his combativeness and he's not a bad pitcher either.

[markedman5]

Jon Morosi ‏@jonmorosi

#Brewers are prioritizing a lefty reliever. Among the available free agents: Burnett, Choate, M. Gonzalez, Howell, Gorzelanny.

[nate82]

I prefer Howell and then Burnett. If the Brewers could somehow get Howell or Burnett that would be awesome and with the trade for Badenhop the bullpen should be rather set. Hopefully the Brewers could add someone like Wilson then as a project and the bullpen should then be complete.

[SRB]

Burnett, please no. Over-performing his peripherals and he is supposedly asking for a large contract. I think Mike Gonzalez would be the best value out of that group of pitchers.

[umpref]

These FA arms are getting out of hand for value you are getting. It's a very weak crop after Zack. It's to the point where I think DM is better off making a trade for the vet he wants. I was for a Dempster type until you see what they want and how long they want it for. I hate big money pitcher contracts. rather bet on the position player. I didnt want Hamilton at first. But now maybe he should see if he can get Hamilton for 3 yrs tops and go with the young pitchers. Might be a few more 9-8 games on occasion. You might have to deal Hart for payroll relief, but maybe not by going with the cheaper pitching staff.

[narwhalattack]

How about Rich Harden? He's coming off an injury so he should be pretty cheap. Maybe the Brewers can give him an incentive-laden deal. Even if Harden doesn't stay healthy, the Brewers still have enough depth with the pitching to fill in.

[sheetskout]

How about Rich Harden? He's coming off an injury so he should be pretty cheap. Maybe the Brewers can give him an incentive-laden deal. Even if Harden doesn't stay healthy, the Brewers still have enough depth with the pitching to fill in.

 

 

Ding ding ding! The seems-like-its-yearly Rich Harden mention!

 

No thanks though. Harden is the poster-boy for can't stay healthy.

[reillymcshane]

Anyone like Harden is strictly an after thought - a low salary with incentives kind of deal with the Brewers under no illusions that he's going to help them in 2013. If he works out and helps, fine. But don't expect anything.

[DoubleSwitch]

@Haudricourt

#Brewers GM Doug Melvin says he is not inclined to go more than two years with any free agent pitcher. Won't make it easy.

 

I can only hope.

[JohnBriggs12]

Burnett, please no. Over-performing his peripherals and he is supposedly asking for a large contract. I think Mike Gonzalez would be the best value out of that group of pitchers.

 

Gonzalez is a pure loogy as is Choate. On the other hand Burnett and Howell are reasonably effective vs. RH hitters. With the makeup of the Brewer pen (still fairly thin), I'd prefer Burnett or Howell. Three outs are more valuable than one out. It's that simple.

[PrinceEatMeat]

Has anyone considered Brett Myers as a SP option? I don't see why he couldn't be converted back, and could possibly be had at a good price.

[Patrick425]

Does anyone have an opinion on what type of money it would take to sign Jurjens. Sounds like he was due to make $5.5 mil and the Braves thought that was too rich. Would $4 or $4.5 mil per year for 2 years get him? Even if it's $5 mil/yr, I think it might be worth the gamble. The guy is only 26 and already has 2 or 3 seasons with pretty decent numbers under his belt. I'd rather do that than offer someone like Dempster $10+ mil/yr for 2 or 3 years (just seems like another Wolf or even Suppan type situation).

[markedman5]

Doug said in the J/S that he is not going to go over 2 years for a FA starter.

 

Don't look for the Brewers to overpay for a second-tier pitcher, however. After getting caught holding the bag at the end of free-agent deals with Jeff Suppan and Randy Wolf, Melvin does not plan to make more than two-year offers.

 

"We wouldn't go three years with a starter," said Melvin. "You look at those contracts and they don't usually work out. Look at all the free-agent players who have been traded the last few years. Free agency gets people excited, but it's not as effective as people would like to think.

[Hate those Rodents]

I'd offer Jurjjens the mike Cameron deal from a few years ago. Five million for next year and ten million for a team option in 2014.

[TheCrew07]

"We wouldn't go three years with a starter," said Melvin. "You look at those contracts and they don't usually work out. Look at all the free-agent players who have been traded the last few years. Free agency gets people excited, but it's not as effective as people would like to think.

 

Melvin's best quote ever.

[SRB]

Jurrjens had a 2.96 ERA as recently as the 2011 season. I can't imagine the Braves let him walk unless his arm is truly shot.

[TooLiveBrew]

"We wouldn't go three years with a starter," said Melvin. "You look at those contracts and they don't usually work out. Look at all the free-agent players who have been traded the last few years. Free agency gets people excited, but it's not as effective as people would like to think.

 

Melvin's best quote ever.

Agreed, it was relieving to read that.

 

Jurrjens had a 2.96 ERA as recently as the 2011 season. I can't imagine the Braves let him walk unless his arm is truly shot.

His avg. FB velocity in his first four seasons was 91+. The past two it was 89.1 & 88.6. I admit I know basically nothing about his health status, but the velocity certainly isn't encouraging.

[reillymcshane]

Dempster was reportedly offered 2 years / $26 million by KC. He turned it down, and the Royals dropped out after bidding 'escalated'.

 

http://www.kansascity.com/2012/11/29/3940310/contract-decisions-loom-for-royals.html

 

Price of FA pitching is only going higher. I have a feeling we end up with some back of the rotation veteran - a Joe Blanton type.