2013 FA arms

[endaround]

Jackson is in a lot of people's consciousness because he's pitched for a lot of good teams. But he's not the guy that made those teams good. The fact is he's rather mediocre, with a 70-71 record and a lifetime 4.40 ERA. I only bring up the .500 record because again, that was with good teams for the most part. That he hasn't gotten a long term deal is probably a strategy employed by his agent who's advising him to wait for that one big year. He's still waiting in my opinion. I'd stay away from a long term deal with him too. If he wants to do another 1 year deal then fine, he's a good fit.

I'm not sure you need one hand to count the number of people here who want Jackson due to his W-L record.

 

 

Congrats endaround. I had set the over/under for someone deriding my bringing up a W/L record at 2 hours. Remind me again. How many starting pitchers with an under .500 record are in Cooperstown?

 

Kidding aside, of course it's not all that significant, but it's not a small sample and how do you explain away his 4.40 career ERA? His stats say he's a number 3 starter at best and more like a 4. It was also not the main point of my post, which was that his frequent appearences in the postseason have led to the perception that he is better than his actual numbers say he is.

 

 

The same way I can explain RA Dickey having a career ERA of 4 despite winning the Cy Young. Jackson was a bad pitcher before 2009. But what he did 7 years ago isn't that relevant to what he would do next year. He is his xFIP for the last three years: 3.71, 3.73, 3.79. Those aren't #1 numbers, but those are solid #2 starter numbers.

[brewcrewdue80]

Yeah I've thought of Liriano/McCarthy too probably every exec in Baseball have that same notion. One though will probably cross the line and guarantee a hefty salary contract for 3yrs. Just hard to figure out what price lands FA pitchers. Guthrie got 3/25mil from KC! I thought I read originally Scott Baker got a potential 9mil/year deal from Cubs. So in general between those two and 15mil by Kuroda/asking price by Sanchez All these FA must be asking minimum 10mil up to 15. The only deals with current makeup on Brewers are a 1yr deal. For a lot of these players its a risk to take 1yr their value is likely to only decrease barring some near cy young vote getting type of season. Anything less than vote getting is remaining the same. But then there's the ut oh season and it drops. Guys want to lock away longer than year contracts and that's honestly tough for me to see the Brewers doing when there's arms ready to throw for you if not this year, next and beyond.

McCarthy was Oak #1 starter this year, then B.Anderson emerged and young guys played well. I don't see McCarthy coming cheaply. When on the mound he's performed then gotten injured, returned performed some more. Guys like him make you wonder if he got a full year in and stayed healthy wouldn't the following year likely be better? McCarthy to me is that potential Gio Gonzalez signing. Gio's success though is going to be built in to McCarthy's price its just the wackiness of Agents selling I can feel it.

I just don't know on Liriano. What the market is for him, how you price him. What to do if he fails. Is his price to high should he fail to not drop him, keep putting out there Damn the results I paid such and such for him this offseason! It's a tough market to piece. The Yankees aren't spending like usual because of 2014luxury tax goal. A few of these pitchers came from the teams in the market for pitching so that's a mixed signal.They're not good enough for you why should they be good enough for me? I stated I'm comfortable with standing pat. If a pitcher takes a 1yr deal on your offer great. If not, it shouldn't be deemed the end of the Brewers this year.

[MNBrew]

Those of you who keep plugging Liriano obviously haven't watched most or all of Liriano's entire MLB career like those of us living in the Twin Cities area. Especially over the past two years, Liriano's been FAR more lousy than good. At best, he's inconsistent. More typically, he can't be trusted. At worst, he's beyond terrible. Million-dollar arm, 50-cent confidence. Rick Anderson's a good pitching coach. Liriano wouldn't change his approach or trust his stuff enough to make a meaningful difference when, had he done so, he could've punched his ticket to about anywhere as a FA. To my thinking, Liriano would represent a huge risk and he's not remotely worth it.

 

Heck, the past 2 years, Shaun Marcum has been much more healthy and much more effective than Liriano, but most Brewers fans don't think it's worth it or realistic to re-sign him. Liriano's nowhere close to Marcum's level these days. Why would we want him? His 2011 perfect game? Manny Parra has one of those in his pocket, too (in AAA, but still! -- heck, so do Mike Warren & Phil Humber) and the Brewers aren't even convinced he's worth keeping in the bullpen or anywhere else in the team's future. Liriano's far closer to being a Manny Parra than a Shaun Marcum based on the past few years.

[brewcrewdue80]

Would seem to confer my feelings on him. I just look at the AL Central in recent years and think if you can't consistently perform against these lineups how can you be trusted in a stacked hitters division? Add to it the ballpark factor. Yea not interested in Liriano. Goes with my earlier post. This FA pitchers class I don't see exceeding value in their contract and some being a disaster for the contract they sign, Liriano is one of them that gives me that feeling. It's getting a bit wild in all the random trade discussions for pitching. Royals offering up Myers to get a starter? Something big will happen during the next winter meeting via trade. So in the meanwhile I don't see any of these FA pitchers being signed aside from Grienke before then. The likes of Lester,Shields,Atlanta's arms, are shaking up the field. The prices when it all said and done could drop in the Brewers favor.

[JohnBriggs12]

Those of you who keep plugging Liriano obviously haven't watched most or all of Liriano's entire MLB career like those of us living in the Twin Cities area. Especially over the past two years, Liriano's been FAR more lousy than good. At best, he's inconsistent. More typically, he can't be trusted. At worst, he's beyond terrible. Million-dollar arm, 50-cent confidence. Rick Anderson's a good pitching coach. Liriano wouldn't change his approach or trust his stuff enough to make a meaningful difference when, had he done so, he could've punched his ticket to about anywhere as a FA. To my thinking, Liriano would represent a huge risk and he's not remotely worth it.

 

Heck, the past 2 years, Shaun Marcum has been much more healthy and much more effective than Liriano, but most Brewers fans don't think it's worth it or realistic to re-sign him. Liriano's nowhere close to Marcum's level these days. Why would we want him? His 2011 perfect game? Manny Parra has one of those in his pocket, too (in AAA, but still! -- heck, so do Mike Warren & Phil Humber) and the Brewers aren't even convinced he's worth keeping in the bullpen or anywhere else in the team's future. Liriano's far closer to being a Manny Parra than a Shaun Marcum based on the past few years.

 

He still allowed fewer hits than innings pitched and posted more than a strikeout per inning in the AL which has a DH. I'll live with some inconsistency. At 29 and another year removed from surgery, he's certainly a good buy low candidate for the simple reason that when right, he's a top of the rotation pitcher. If you over value consistency you end up with Suppans and Wolf's.

[torts]

if stats arent your thing, just go by availability in fantasy baseball!

[MNBrew]

Those of you who keep plugging Liriano obviously haven't watched most or all of Liriano's entire MLB career like those of us living in the Twin Cities area. Especially over the past two years, Liriano's been FAR more lousy than good. At best, he's inconsistent. More typically, he can't be trusted. At worst, he's beyond terrible. Million-dollar arm, 50-cent confidence. Rick Anderson's a good pitching coach. Liriano wouldn't change his approach or trust his stuff enough to make a meaningful difference when, had he done so, he could've punched his ticket to about anywhere as a FA. To my thinking, Liriano would represent a huge risk and he's not remotely worth it.

 

Heck, the past 2 years, Shaun Marcum has been much more healthy and much more effective than Liriano, but most Brewers fans don't think it's worth it or realistic to re-sign him. Liriano's nowhere close to Marcum's level these days. Why would we want him? His 2011 perfect game? Manny Parra has one of those in his pocket, too (in AAA, but still! -- heck, so do Mike Warren & Phil Humber) and the Brewers aren't even convinced he's worth keeping in the bullpen or anywhere else in the team's future. Liriano's far closer to being a Manny Parra than a Shaun Marcum based on the past few years.

 

He still allowed fewer hits than innings pitched and posted more than a strikeout per inning in the AL which has a DH. I'll live with some inconsistency. At 29 and another year removed from surgery, he's certainly a good buy low candidate for the simple reason that when right, he's a top of the rotation pitcher. If you over value consistency you end up with Suppans and Wolf's.

 

Briggs, I tend to agree with you rather often. But just to cite a few of Liriano's stats doesn't do justice to the whole picture. 162 BBs in 291 IPs the past 2 years, most with a home park that's generally a "pitcher's park," an increasingly lousy ERA (5.09 & 5.34 the past 2 years -- think of a Suppan type of "progression") . . . it has nothing to do with just consistency, more with being consistently bad. Don't want Wolf? Then why sign another guy who's trending toward Suppan-like results faster than Wolf?

[nate82]

I know this player won't be a popular pick but Jonathan Sanchez maybe a good pick up in FA. I believe any team could get him on a minor league deal which would be perfect. If one of the younger arms are underperforming it maybe a wise idea to have some depth in the minors.

[yoyo49]

Not too earth shattering, but Rosenthal is reporting that the Brewers, Red Sox, and Angels are expressing interest in Dempster, who is seeking a three-year deal. Dempster would be about 6th or 7th on my FA SP wish list.

[brewmann04]

Well Money wise we can not compete with them and i hope the Brewers don't go 3 years it reminds me a bit of the Suppan deal.

[Bnowell4evr]

I hope we pass on giving Dempster 3 years. That's a disaster waiting to happen. You can't justify that move with the dip in velocity and how he performed in the 2nd half. I hope Melvin turns his attention to Brandon McCarthy, Dan Haren or Shaun Marcum if we must acquire our SP through free agency.

 

If you're gonna give out 3 or 4 years to a pitcher the only guy I might consider is Edwin Jackson but I'm far from sold on making that move as well.

[reillymcshane]

Three years of Dempster certainly scares me. Two years is okay. I'd take that risk. I might even do two and an option. I will say I'd feel more comfortable with signing Dempster to three years than with the Wolf or Suppan signings.

 

But I'd rather the team go one year with someone who's riskier. Or a year and an options. Say McCarthy (assuming he checks out physically - and no one offers him a multi-year deal).

 

I bet we offer three years. I just think the team will feel they need the arm in the rotation and take the plunge.

[Warning Track Power]

If we want a grizzled veteran to put in the rotation instead of rolling with Fiers, Rogers, Peralta, etc...why didn't we just re-sign Marcum? I don't understand why we would go long term with Dempster when we had a younger, better if less durable option in house.

[torts]

Career Total @ Miller Park

7-4, 2.66 ERA, 101.1 IP, 8 HR in 26 games. and that was against Braun/Fielder and Co. in a park that they dominated in

[Bnowell4evr]

Career Total @ Miller Park

7-4, 2.66 ERA, 101.1 IP, 8 HR in 26 games. and that was against Braun/Fielder and Co. in a park that they dominated in

 

Dempster like Suppan feasted on a RH heavy lineup. All you had to do was walk prince and tear the rest of the team apart with sliders.

[torts]

BRADEN LOOPER BRADEN LOOPER BRADEN LOOPER JEFF SUPPAN BRADEN LOOPER BRADEN LOOPER BRADEN LOOPER

[Roderick]

If we want a grizzled veteran to put in the rotation instead of rolling with Fiers, Rogers, Peralta, etc...why didn't we just re-sign Marcum? I don't understand why we would go long term with Dempster when we had a younger, better if less durable option in house.

 

I agree, on the face of it I would rather take my chances with one year of Marcum instead of three years of Dempster. But obviously the Brewers know his health better than anyone.

[docduany]

I just don't want to go Dempster diving. He has that Soupy feeling. Veteran righty without great stuff "that just knows how to pitch". "Hey, this guy dominated us-- think what he could do in our rotation!" Dempster is getting longer in the tooth. Dip in velocity. Poor second half during a pennant chase. And I don't especially care for his funky glove hand gamesmanship. He's up to something with it, and I don't like it!! Two years wouldn't be the end of the world, but I'd prefer other options. Marcum, Haren, Jackson-- Zach Grienke

[endaround]

The dip in velocity is worrisome, but can we stop calling him Suppan? Suppan was a bad signing because he never was a very good pitcher. Here were Suppan's WAR for the 3 years before Milwaukee: 1.3, 1.5, 1.7. Dempster the past three years: 3.2, 2.7, 3.3.

[Hate those Rodents]

If 2/26 isn't going to get him, is anyone on here even interested in Dempster still? I'd rather sign Jurjjens after he gets non tendered.

[RockCoCougars]

Any GM that would sign Dempster to a three year deal should be fired immediately. He's been pretty good- and is maybe still slightly above average, but he would be pushing 40 in three years. There are tons of innings on that arm. Signing him to a 3 year deal would be like taking out a 36 month bank loan to buy a 1999 Cavalier with 150,000 miles on it... for twice blue book value.

[brewmann04]

I am against the 3 year deal also because of the age factor.

[JohnBriggs12]

If 2/26 isn't going to get him, is anyone on here even interested in Dempster still? I'd rather sign Jurjjens after he gets non tendered.

 

Apparently insanity reigns. I can't help but harken back to when the Brewers were courting Carl Pavano two years ago. I personally would put Dempster in the same category, a guy coming off of a good contract year in his mid 30's, just like Pavano was. The numbers being thrown around for Pavano seemed high then (and proved to be based on two lackluster, injury plagued seasons in Minnesota), but they were pale in comparison to these Dempster numbers. This has disaster written all over it.

[jerichoholicninja]

The Diamondbacks non-tendered Brad Bergesen. His career numbers aren't horrible and are comparable to Scott Feldman's. Any chance he would agree to less than Scott or a minor league deal?

 

Bergesen, age 27

424 IP, 4.61 ERA, 1.39 WHIP, 2.6 BB/9, 4.8 K/9

 

Feldman, age 29

727.2 IP, 4.81, 1.42 WHIP, 3.1 BB/9, 5.4 K/9

[torts]

Bergesen isnt a free agent, so he'd have to be given a contract through arbitration, so im sure he'll be a lot cheaper than Feldman.