2013 FA arms

[monty57]

I would be very interested if one of our minor league gurus would take the time to put together a run-down of our minor league pitchers, noting their projected ceilings and when they should be ready for the majors.

 

I believe that after 2013 we will have more MLB-ready SP than we have rotation spots, which is why I'm an advocate of signing someone to a one-year deal. I don't want a 34-year-old middle-of-the-rotation guy getting paid eight figures when we could have a similarly talented youngster taking his spot for league minimum.

 

However, I am far from being an expert on rating our minor league guys. I may be off on how I see the future. If someone with some knowledge on the subject would be so kind, please post how our SP prospects project to "play out" assuming of course that we don't trade for anyone else or trade any of our guys.

[nate82]

I would be very interested if one of our minor league gurus would take the time to put together a run-down of our minor league pitchers, noting their projected ceilings and when they should be ready for the majors.

 

 

Not a guru but the Brewers have a bunch of #3's 4's and 5's which some have the ceilings of #1's or 2's if everything goes perfectly. Peralta is probably the only one who has a ceiling as a #1 type of a pitcher. Jungmann is close but he needs a third pitch and he needs to work on locating his pitches better. Ceiling for Jungmann is Cain if everything goes perfectly but will probably be more around someone like an Edwin Jackson.

[TheCrew07]

I would be very interested if one of our minor league gurus would take the time to put together a run-down of our minor league pitchers, noting their projected ceilings and when they should be ready for the majors.

 

 

Not a guru but the Brewers have a bunch of #3's 4's and 5's which some have the ceilings of #1's or 2's if everything goes perfectly. Peralta is probably the only one who has a ceiling as a #1 type of a pitcher. Jungmann is close but he needs a third pitch and he needs to work on locating his pitches better. Ceiling for Jungmann is Cain if everything goes perfectly but will probably be more around someone like an Edwin Jackson.

 

Most of the higher ceiling players are difficult to project because of their control, they could be relievers, backend guys, or studs. We won't know until they get a chance to pitch against MLB hitting. Also, SPs that don't run their FB into the upper 90s aren't projectable as #1s, which is why someone like Gallardo was always projected behind Lincecum on prospect lists. So only pitchers who can hit 97+ with their FB get the #1 projection even though they may ultimately have less success and slot behind someone who tops out around 95 and regularly pitches in that 91-93 range. Depending on the success of the guys ahead or behind them any of these pitchers are also legitimate bullpen candidates down the road.

 

In this case ETA is their best possible MLB debut so obviously the playes who have already made their debut have that year as their ETA.

 

Name - ETA - Safe Projection - Best Case

Peralta - 2012 - 3 - 1/2

Rogers - 2010 - 4/5 - 1/2

Fiers - 2012 - 4/5 - 3

Burgos - 2013 - 4/5 - 3

Thornburg - 2012 - 3/4 - 2

Stinson - 2012 - 4/5 - 3

Jungmann - 2014 - 4/5 - 2/3 (contrary to what was posted above Jungmann doesn't have a quality 2nd pitch yet)

Hellweg - 2013 - 4/5 - 1/2

Nelson - 2013 - 4/5 - 2/3

Scarpetta - 2014 - reliever - 3

Pena - 2014 - reliever - 2/3

Gagnon - 2014 - 4/5 - 3

Bucci - 2014 - 4/5 - 3

Bradley - ? - ? - ? (yes he was drafted high but after April didn't show anything, I wouldn't guess anything about his career path at this point)

 

The rest of the guys are too away far or don't project well enough to disuss legitmately as MLB starting pitchers right now.

[wisniewski]

http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/blog/jon-heyman/20838908/top-40-free-agent-hit-list-projected--for-greinke-hamilton-bourn--37-more

 

In Heyman's (I know, it's Heyman, but still timely fodder for discussion) Top 40 FA list article from this evening, he predicts Jackson gets 3/36. Close to what I was projecting.

 

Greinke 6/150

 

Sanchez 5/70

 

Loshe 4/70

[ORBrewerFan]

I think we'll make a strong play for Jackson. Hopefully for Sanchez too. Otherwise, say no to the rest and maybe see what Hamilton would cost afterall. Those would be the guys I target. Make Jackson and Sanchez plans A and A2. I am guessing we can get it done with one of them so need to go further. But I'd then have Hamilton as my plan B rather than signing any other free agent starter.

 

This is also what I'm guessing. Melvin goes after Jackson or Sanchez (3 years, $12M per, which might not be enough to get either), maybe Dempster (2 years, $12M per). If that doesn't happen, sign Hamilton to a five-year, $100M deal and trade Hart and Gomez for a starter.

 

The Brewers need someone to slot into the #2 spot behind Gallardo. Three of The Six Shooters (Peralta, Rogers, Estrada, Narveson, Fiers, Thornberg) can fill the other spots adequately. There will be trouble if they have to fill all four behind Gallardo.

[endaround]

Hart doesn't get you a #2 starter. Hart might get you a guy in AA who projects as a #2. Maybe. This would be like the Brewers saying, hey we could use some bullpen help, lest trade Gallardo for two relievers who have 1 year left on their contracts!

[monty57]

Thanks TC07 and nate82.

 

Going into 2013, adding a veteran will allow us to keep a handle on innings for some guys who are probably on innings limits. It also gives us needed depth, as one of Estrada, Rogers, Peralta or Fiers will either be in the bullpen or AAA.

 

Going into 2014, we will have Gallardo, Peralta, Fiers, Estrada, Rogers, Burgos, Hellweg, Nelson, Thornburg, Stinson. That's ten SP who are reasonably likely to be at or near MLB-ready.

 

Going into 2015, add Jungmann, Scarpetta, Gagnon, Pena, Bucci and Bradley to the list above.

 

Therefore, whoever we'd sign to a 3-year deal had better be pretty darn sure to be better than a middle-of-the-rotation guy for at least the next three years. Edwin Jackson is a fine pitcher, but his career ERA is 4.40 and he's only had two seasons in his career with an ERA under 4.00. He doesn't strike out that many (6.87 career K/9), his K/BB is only 1.95, and his career WHIP is 1.44. Are we absolutely positive that he is going to be one of our best five pitchers in 2014 or 2015? I'd say that the only two who fit in that category are Greinke and Sanchez. Melvin's already said that Greinke's not going to happen, so I'd say that if we can't sign Sanchez (which is pretty unlikely), I wouldn't go multiple years on anyone. We'll have plenty of pitching after that one-year deal is over.

 

Going the opposite route of this thread, I'd make sure Estrada remains a starter this season. Since Estrada has been a starter, he's been really good. His numbers as a reliever drag down his overall numbers, but as a starter, he's good. If he puts up another 3.50-4.00 ERA, 1.14-1.20 WHIP, around 9 K/9 and 3-5 K/BB, he will be a really good commodity for us to dangle in trade next offseason as the young guys force their way onto the team. There's little reason this offseason to sign a non-ace to a multi-year deal, when next offseason we will probably be looking at trading away SP to make room for everyone.

[Hate those Rodents]

Hart doesn't get you a #2 starter. Hart might get you a guy in AA who projects as a #2. Maybe. This would be like the Brewers saying, hey we could use some bullpen help, lest trade Gallardo for two relievers who have 1 year left on their contracts!

 

Hart can get you a number two starter, just maybe not the type of number two starter that people might prefer. The Gavin Floyd types though, he could attain.

 

Also keep in mind that Hart doesn't seem hell-bent on free agency, so the acquiring team might pay a little bit more in thinking/knowing that they can resign him.

[JohnBriggs12]

Monty, I find myself agreeing with you more and more. Your analysis is spot on. But forget 2014 and 2015, any one of those names with a solid start, and the right set of circumstances, can't be ruled out for 2013. Which as you point out, makes locking up another rotation spot with a high priced middle level pitcher like Jackson very problematic.

 

The beauty of the Brewer rotation as it now stands, is it's flexibility. Worried that Fiers starts the year more like he ended it? Fine, option him and bring up the next guy. Same would go if you started the year with Peralta in there. Rogers is out of options, and I know people think he can't clear waivers and get sent down, but if he's so bad the Brewers can't at least carry him as the 12th guy, teams won't be interested, because he'd be without options for them as well. Estrada, a likely starter, has shown he can pitch out of the pen if room has to be made. Narveson could start the year in Nashville for a month long rehab, then come up and fill in for a struggling starter.

 

The need and it's really not all that great, is for some additional veteran presence for this year, not the future. There are guys who can be had on one year deals that are likely to perform as well or nearly as well as the likes of Edwin Jackson. If they fall on their face, again, just jettison them, and go the the next young guy or pull a Narveson out of the pen.

[monty57]

Thanks Briggs. I'm trying to drop emotions/personal feelings and simply apply logic. There's a reason Melvin & Co have spent most of their top draft picks for the past 3-4 years on starting pitchers, and it's probably not so they can sign a veteran to a long-term, big money contract to block people.

 

I've warmed to the idea of adding a veteran because (A) he'll add some certainty, and more importantly (B) there are innings worries on some of the young arms. I'd hate to be in a pennant race and have to shut down 20-60% of our starting rotation in August. One vet on a one-year deal allows us to put one of the "innings limit" guys at #5 where he can occasionally be skipped, and other(s) at AAA where innings can be monitored (there's less backlash if you continually pull a starter after 4-6 innings at AAA then there would be if it were done at the MLB level).

 

Little risk to a one-year signing, but lots of benefits, even if the vet only has a so-so season. Even though it might "feel good," there's lots of risk in signing someone like Jackson to the 3 year/$36MM deal he'll probably get.

[Roderick]

Rogers is out of options, and I know people think he can't clear waivers and get sent down, but if he's so bad the Brewers can't at least carry him as the 12th guy, teams won't be interested, because he'd be without options for them as well.

 

Narveson could start the year in Nashville for a month long rehab, then come up and fill in for a struggling starter.

 

The need and it's really not all that great, is for some additional veteran presence for this year, not the future. There are guys who can be had on one year deals that are likely to perform as well or nearly as well as the likes of Edwin Jackson. If they fall on their face, again, just jettison them, and go the the next young guy or pull a Narveson out of the pen.

 

We have had the Livans and Dillards as the last man in the pen. No matter how bad Rogers looks in spring training, he would have that spot as I wouldn't risk losing him.

 

Can Narveson pitch in spring games and then go on a rehab assignment without fudging an injury? Just curious.

 

I would definitely be looking for a free agent on a 1 or 2 year deal. I think anyone good enough to get more years is going to get a ton of money. The teams are flush with TV money and it will be spent. If the team is still in it in July and needs help, they will have the money and prospects to acquire the help.

[JohnBriggs12]

To answer your question about Narveson Roderick, I don't see why they couldn't. At the very least he could stay in extended spring and get work in that way and then go on a rehab.

 

Just read where Kuroda isn't limiting himself to the Yankees....Hmmmmm. Kuroda would cost a draft pick, and wants more than the qualifying offer, but it won't take more than 2 and possibly just a one year deal...he'll be 38, but showed no signs he's losing it last year with a career high in innings.

 

Somebody get Aoki on the line and have him make a recruiting call.

[ORBrewerFan]

I have a hard time believing the Brewers would give up their first round pick for one year of a 38-year old.

[Bnowell4evr]

Ken Rosenthal is saying were showing interest in Ryan Dempster. http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/winter-meetings-new-york-mets-tampa-bay-rays-david-price-ra-dickey-110812

[reillymcshane]

I have a hard time believing the Brewers would give up their first round pick for one year of a 38-year old.

Totally agree with this one. Kuroda's a good pitcher, but the team needs to keep investing in the farm system. It's how they'll stay relevant.

[wisniewski]

JohnBriggs12 - So, if I've read your last few posts correctly - giving someone like Jackson (at 29 years old) 3/36 is a very risky and franchise damning move, but giving Hiroki Kuroda (at 38 years old, and received a QO from his own team which would cost any team a first round pick to sign) a 2/26 deal would be something you could endorse.

 

I'm having a hard time following the logic.

[Eye Black]

Anibal Sanchez reportedly starts the bidding at 6 years / $90 million according to Jon Morosi. $15 million per year doesn't seem to far off from what others think is realistic.

[JohnBriggs12]

JohnBriggs12 - So, if I've read your last few posts correctly - giving someone like Jackson (at 29 years old) 3/36 is a very risky and franchise damning move, but giving Hiroki Kuroda (at 38 years old, and received a QO from his own team which would cost any team a first round pick to sign) a 2/26 deal would be something you could endorse.

 

I'm having a hard time following the logic.

 

First of all Jackson is nowhere near the pitcher Kuroda is regardless of age. Kuroda has a career 3.42 ERA and a 1.182 WHIP vs. Jackson's 4.40 ERA and 1.438 WHIP. Secondly, I'd offer Kuroda more like 1 year $15-16 million, not a 2 year deal. He's not going to turn down a one year $13.3 million deal to take 2 years at less per year than that.

 

The one year offer accomplishes this for the Brewers, (vs. Jackson). They are getting a true no. 1-2 pitcher (vs Jackson who is at best a 3), and they aren't tying a spot or money beyond this year. The risk is that Kuroda at 38 will suddenly drop off, but that risk isn't any worse than Jackson throwing in a clunker year like he has at times in the past.

[fondybrewfan]

So the Crew does have interest in Dempster?

 

You could do worse than signing him to a 2 year deal with a 3rd year option. I still would prefer Sanchez to be option #1 and Jackson to be option #2; but Dempster wouldn't be a bad pick up on a short deal

[jerichoholicninja]

So the Crew does have interest in Dempster?

 

I've seen it reported multiple times on MLB Trade Rumors. Unless it's a 1 or 2 year deal I hope it's not true.

[ORBrewerFan]

Reports are Dempster will probably get a two-year deal, or two-years and an option.

[PrinceEatMeat]

The most I'd give Dempster is 2 years. Maybe with an option, if it's a team option. Anything more would be a huge mistake.

[JohnBriggs12]

So the Crew does have interest in Dempster?

 

I've seen it reported multiple times on MLB Trade Rumors. Unless it's a 1 or 2 year deal I hope it's not true.

 

I'm guessing Dempster is going to want a no trade or limited trade clause as the Cubs had trouble finding him a spot last year. I would hope they don't entertain a 3rd year. I think it's likely Dempster reverts to his 2011 form as soon as next year so not only would I not go beyond 2 years, I wouldn't go higher than $25 million over 2.

[reillymcshane]

The more I consider Dempster, the more I think he will fit with the Brewers really well.

 

- He won't cost a draft pick (unlike Kuroda and Lohse).

- He probably won't require more a couple of years on his contract - maybe 2 years and an option will get it done. Greinke and Sanchez will be getting 5-6 years. I think Edwin Jackson can get four years as well, considering he's pretty young.

- He won't cost as much as top flight guys. I'm thinking in the $10-12 million/year range

- He's been relatively healthy the last few years (unlike Marcum, McCarthy, Oswalt, Haren)

- He's been pretty effective the last few years (unlike Blanton, Guthrie, Liriano)

- He knows the NL central and has thrived in it.

- He's always pitched great at Miller Park (not a big thing, but nice to know).

- He's going to be 35 next year - not old, but certainly not young. His peripherals haven't fallen off a cliff. He strikeout and BB rates are pretty good and consistent.

- His vetoing of a trade to LA last year might show he has limits to where he wants to play. He seemed happy in Chicago, so Milwaukee shouldn't be too hard of a sell.

- At 35, he's probably looking for a contender while he has a chance.

- He's Canadian

 

My biggest issue with Dempster was his weak 2011. He was much more hittable than previous seasons (or 2012). At 35, you worry the guy who had a 4.80 will re-emerge.

 

However, looking at Fangraphs, his FIP from 2007-20012 has been 3.42, 3.87, 3.99, 3.91, 3.69. So the year he had a 4.80 ERA, his FIP was more inline with his recent performance. Those same number indicate that last year he was probably a bit lucky with his 3.38 ERA. His WAR over the last four years has been very consistent - 3.7, 3.2, 2.7, 3.3.

 

Personally, I hope we get Greinke back. But so much about Dempster screams he fits perfectly with the Brewers. He likes the Midwest. He knows the NL central. He won't cost too much or need too many years. Yes, there's risk. But I think he fits what management needs - and what they can afford.

[TooLiveBrew]

The thing to be wary of with Dempster specifically, or older players in general, is that the 'end' can arrive very quickly. He lost velocity on his fastball in both '11 & '12, and unless he resorts to doping, we should probably expect that velocity loss to continue in '13. And, while he was very much a workhorse from '08-'11, he missed time last season (173 total IP) with lat tightness -- injuries & missing time are other trends we can expect to continue or increase with older players. Imo paying him $10-$15M (or whatever AAV he gets) to watch him decline over the next 2-3 seasons is a big risk. I don't want the Brewers to be stuck holding the bag again like they were with Wolf this past season.