Rick Kranitz has to go

[gregmag]

"Louis Ely's argument about the starting rotation seems to me willfully biased and agenda-driven."

 

Name one pitcher who improved from 2010 to 2011 or 2011 to 2012. Greinke has shown improvement compared to 2010 but not compared to 2009 - was 2010 the outlier? Other than Marco Estrada, who is questionable because he pitched a very small sample of innings in the majors in 2010, I can't find one. That is what I am basing it off of, not some agenda.

 

Before looking up numbers to try to get my head around your question, I decided to use xFIP for a quick comparison. I like statistical analysis, but I'm no stat expert or savant, and I had no idea what those numbers would tell me. What they tell me is that five of the six Brewers starters improved between 2010 and 2011, while four of six have regressed from 2011 to 2012. The six pitchers' xFIP numbers for those three seasons:

 

Greinke: 3.60 / 2.56 / 2.77

Gallardo: 3.29 / 3.19 / 3.69

Marcum: 3.71 / 3.89 / 3.97

Wolf: 4.71 / 4.47 / 4.47

Narveson: 4.15 / 4.07 / 5.09

Estrada: 4.79 / 3.58 / 3.34

 

You're certainly right about Estrada's 2010 sample size, but the fact is that he had failed to establish himself as a big league pitcher before age 28; he got there in 2011. Caveats could also apply to Greinke and Marcum in 2011 because they switched leagues. I don't know whether or how xFIP considers league factors, but I can't believe that would account for all of Greinke's improvement. By the same token, Narveson's decline this year may have had something to do with the injury that eventually knocked him out, but I don't know how much.

 

Looking at the overall three-year progression, just off these numbers, here's what I see: Greinke and Estrada have improved significantly. Wolf has improved modestly. Gallardo and Marcum have regressed modestly. Narveson has regressed significantly. It's also worth noting that Fiers has made an amazing transition from the minors to the majors, far smoother than most successful minor league pitchers, while in smaller samples Thornburg has struggled and Rogers is just getting started.

 

Maybe other stats point in other directions, though I don't see any reason xFIP would bias the outcome systematically toward one conclusion or the other. These numbers back up my eyeball sense, which is that the Brewers' starters, as a group, were remarkably productive (and remarkably healthy) in 2011. Your point that the improvement in the rotation between 2010 and 2011 mainly had to do with improved personnel is obviously right. But the six men, as a group, also got better. The bullpen was pretty outstanding as well, BTW. This year, as we all know, it's a different story in the rotation and, more dramatically, in the bullpen. But of course players or teams that improve in one season tend to regress in the next season.

 

I just think, if you're either going to deny the 2011 success or deny the pitching coach any credit for it, and then turn around and put a big chunk of blame for slippage the next year on the pitching coach, you aren't trying to do objective analysis. I think you're trying to construct an argument to support your pre-formed conclusion that the team should fire the pitching coach.

[FVBrewerFan]

Put me down in the group that says none of us has any idea if Kranitz is a good pitching coach or not. The only evidence is individual pitcher's results this season vs past seasons. And that analysis is so incredibly flawed. How do you calculate what percentage of effect a pitching coach has on performance for each individual pitcher? You can't, so I won't spend the time.

 

I will throw this out there though. The Brewers are about to popualte the rotation and bullpen with guys that have been in the system. If there is a manager, pitching coach, roving pitching instructor...anyone these young pitchers really respect and say they learned from, wouldn't that person (if he exists) make sense to be the pitching coach moving forward?

[LouisEly]

gregmag, like I said Greinke improved compared to 2010. But not compared to 2009, thus my point about 2010 being the outlier. And maybe Wolf got lucky last year and unlucky this year, but despite what xFIP says I have a hard time believing he is the same pitcher this year as last year. You can use xFIP, but when I look at WHIP, H/9, HR/9, and BB/9 he is significantly worse.

[homer]

Wolf pitched over his head last year. He was due to regress.

 

1) No, his 2011 performance was pretty consistent with his 2008-2010 averages.

 

B) The only season he ever had that was close to 2012 was 2006 when he was injured and only pitched 56 innings. No "regression" - age, or statisticaly anomaly - would have projected anywhere near this performance.

 

Actually I take it back. He hasn't regressed that much (not that regression for a 35 year old should be a big surprise). His secondary numbers are right in line with what he's done the last few years. The only significant difference is a slight uptick in home run percentage and a decrease in LOB %.