Expectations for Carlos Gomez

[logan82]

I would be against a 3 year deal for Gomez. Unless Schafer is expected to be a bust I think you go with him and let Gomez walk. Gomez is a good CF but just can't hit very well.

[yfinn6]

And Schafer can? He's had all of 5 plate appearances in MLB..

[TooLiveBrew]

And Schafer can? He's had all of 5 plate appearances in MLB..

Number of MLB plate appearances has nothing directly to do with whether or not someone is a good hitter.

[yfinn6]

Interesting. Because we've never seen someone hit or pitch well in the minors and come to MLB and fall flat on their face.

[JJHardy7]

I do like Schafer a lot, but what is the gap in defense between Gomez and Schafer? I'd have to imagine it's a decent gap on what I've seen (not a knock on Logan...but Carlos is awesome on defense). I guess I don't see a risk on a short term deal for Carlos. Either way...he should be our everyday starter the rest of the way. Maybe it'll figure itself out.

[TooLiveBrew]

Interesting. Because we've never seen someone hit or pitch well in the minors and come to MLB and fall flat on their face.

I get it, it's easier to dismiss every young MiLB player than try to analyze each guy individually. To each his own. I just prefer to not apply such a blanket policy.

[JJHardy7]

I get it, it's easier to dismiss every young MiLB player than try to analyze each guy individually. To each his own. I just prefer to not apply such a blanket policy.

 

TLB - I respect your views quite a bit...but how do you think Logan and Carlos compare? I've seen Logan a bit in spring training and Nashville and I think he has a future in Milwaukee. I'm by no means a scout, etc, but Gomez's defense is pretty amazing. I know Gomez can toy us a bit with his bat and we may have to live with that. I just think Gomez on a short term deal for $3 or $4M doesn't prevent us from trading him should Logan show he can handle it.

 

I do think Logan should get a long look in Milwaukee the next few months. Let's see what he can do at the MLB level.

[TooLiveBrew]

Well I think Schafer profiles pretty similarly to the Morgan/Aoki mold as a hitter; for a different comp., his MiLB hitting career looks pretty similar to Segura's. Not a lot of power, but a good line drive swing with a good approach. Gomez definitely has more raw power, but Schafer's contact ability is probably better at this point. The sky is still the limit for Gomez if he can ever figure out how to refine his approach at the plate & make consistent contact... probably not likely, but certainly not implausible. If the Brewers' manager would stop trying to pretend Gomez has already done that, & just bat him 7th or 8th, I don't think there'd be much reason to complain about Gomez as the everyday CF. This season so far, Gomez has basically been Yuni Betancourt as a hitter, but unlike Yuni, Carlos plays elite defense (& obv. at a premium position).

 

Defensively, Schafer is a guy whose instincts probably rate out higher than his physical ability, but he's a good athlete who certainly isn't slow. You're absolutely right to infer that Gomez is the best defensive OF in the organization; he's probably on the shortlist for all of MLB in that regard. So Schafer's D would be a downgrade, but it'd be like going from A+ defense to A defense. I'm not familiar with Schafer's arm, but I don't recall it ever being pointed out as a weakness.

 

One last note on the (very interesting... good call JJ7) Gomez-Schafer discussion... Gomez is less than a year older than Schafer; they're basically the same age. Difference is that Gomez has spent what probably should've been MiLB developmental time in the big leagues.

 

 

I do think Logan should get a long look in Milwaukee the next few months. Let's see what he can do at the MLB level.

 

I don't disagree in general, but the problem is where would he play? Gomez is still not a good OBP guy, but honestly I'd rather see the Brewers opt to make him the guy they ensure gets tons of big-league playing time the rest of the way -- with no insult meant to Schafer, Gomez's ceiling is just SO much higher. This season has been, by far, Gomez's best as a big-league hitter. He's already a very valuable player almost exclusively due to his defense... the power has started to show quite a bit more... now it's time to see if he can ever slow the game down enough & be patient enough at the plate to make consistent contact.

 

 

EDIT: The flip-side of Gomez's improvement as a hitter is possibly trying to deal him this offseason. He's a free agent after next season, & is yet another Scott Boras client. I think the Brewers should let him play fulltime the rest of the way, and then see if any other organization thinks the light has gone on for Gomez. I think he could net you a decent prospect with a full year's service time remaining. If he wasn't a Boras client, I'd be all about approaching him with a three to five year contract asap, but Boras clients seem to hit free agency about 99 times out of 100.

 

EDIT2: Heck, if I'm a GM & I'm going to try to flip him, the time is now before the deadline. I didn't realize until writing up this post that Gomez will be a FA after next season, or that he's a Boras client (at least per BB-reference). You have plenty of options to man CF both this season & going forward, & if you find a GM that believes Gomez's progress is for real, he might be willing to pay a good price for 1.5 years of Gomez.

[yfinn6]

Interesting. Because we've never seen someone hit or pitch well in the minors and come to MLB and fall flat on their face.

I get it, it's easier to dismiss every young MiLB player than try to analyze each guy individually. To each his own. I just prefer to not apply such a blanket policy.

 

I said nothing of the sort.

 

My point was that Schafer has no MLB experience. He could be better than Gomez, and I hope he is, but to Logan who said we should just get rid of Gomez (in favor of Schafer) because Gomez can't hit is about as silly as can be. Gomez hasn't exactly lighted the world on fire with his hitting, but he's certainly not someone that doesn't have some value. He can hit, but he'll never approach what his ceiling may or may not have been.

 

In short, I don't like dumping MLB guys that still have some pretty decent value for a MiLB player that might be a fringe MLB guy. It isn't like Logan Schafer is the second coming of Ryan Braun (i.e. a sure thing).

 

*Edit - Logan said "let him walk". Gomez is highly unlikely to be a net worthwhile compensation if he were to sign elsewhere via FA. If the Brewers were going to give the CF job to Schafer, I would hope they would at least try to get something out of Gomez from another club, or package him in with another player, etc.

[logan82]

If the Brewers' manager would stop trying to pretend Gomez has already done that, & just bat him 7th or 8th, I don't think there'd be much reason to complain about Gomez as the everyday CF.

Gomez is still not a good OBP guy, but honestly I'd rather see the Brewers opt to make him the guy they ensure gets tons of big-league playing time the rest of the way -- with no insult meant to Schafer, Gomez's ceiling is just SO much higher.

It is hard to separate a manager problem from Gomez. Keep him in the bottom of the lineup and I think it actually plays more to his strengths. Speed plays well in front of bad hitters and his power plays well behind our OBP guys. As long as our goal is not to win I agree, start Gomez every day. Gomez has better raw tools than probably anybody on our team.

 

So Schafer's D would be a downgrade, but it'd be like going from A+ defense to A defense. I'm not familiar with Schafer's arm, but I don't recall it ever being pointed out as a weakness.

Gomez is probably one of the best(if not the best) defensive CF in the game. Still I don't think the gap is big going from elite to above average defense in CF is very big unless you play most of your games in a park with a huge outfield. He is the perfect pinch runner/late game defensive replacement.

 

Gomez hasn't exactly lighted the world on fire with his hitting, but he's certainly not someone that doesn't have some value. He can hit, but he'll never approach what his ceiling may or may not have been.

 

Yeah he has some value but unless he developed better discipline he is pretty limited as a hitter. Even with his fantastic defense he isn't a guy I would sign to a contract for more than a year at a time. I meant let him walk after next year when he hits FA. The only reason to think letting Gomez walk is silly is if you have no faith in Schafer being a good CF at the MLB level. If you can get value for him that would be the prefered way to go. I see little point in either Gomez staing or us signing him to a ong term deal. If I were Gomez I would want to play for a team that would let me play every day.

 

I think our whole disagreement revolves around how each of us values Schafer. You state he is a fringe MLB guy. I think he can be at least an average MLB CF. About what Gomez would be over a full year. At least I think Gomez could be an average CF. Schafer will cost a lot less per year than Gomez.

[danzig6767]

 

 

 

EDIT: The flip-side of Gomez's improvement as a hitter is possibly trying to deal him this offseason. He's a free agent after next season, & is yet another Scott Boras client. I think the Brewers should let him play fulltime the rest of the way, and then see if any other organization thinks the light has gone on for Gomez. I think he could net you a decent prospect with a full year's service time remaining. If he wasn't a Boras client, I'd be all about approaching him with a three to five year contract asap, but Boras clients seem to hit free agency about 99 times out of 100.

 

Barring some teams making a trade offer at some point better than i'd expect for Gomez, i likely wouldn't trade him or offer him an extension for a few reasons.

 

1. Even though the odds are that the team next year won't be able to seriously compete for a playoff berth, i don't think Attanasio is going to want to go really young and pretty much punt on the season before it starts. He likes seeing Miller Park full.

 

2. Almost very rookie is a question mark as to how exactly they'll perform in their rookie season. Some excel. Some are solid and some look overwhelmed and badly struggle. Schafer could be one that struggles badly.

 

3. We will have sizable money coming off the books between Greinke, K-Rod, and Wolf. Gomez wouldn't get huge money in arbitration.

 

So i'd likely bring Carlos back and put him in some degree of a platoon with Schafer. Start Gomez around 100 times and Schafer 60 games. Of course that ratio could change if either guy's play forced extra starts.

[danzig6767]

Carlos Gomez has quietly put together a fairly nice season -- while the .300 OBP is still certainly nothing to write home about, the .759 OPS is perfectly respectable for a centerfielder, and when combined with elite defense, would make him a pretty decent starter.

 

I agree but the problem is, he's going to project to have less power next year but the same OBP. .300/.410 is a more reasonable projection for him next year. Even with elite defense, not sure that justifies him being an everyday starter at any price.

 

Why and who projects Gomez to hit for less power next year?

 

Someone in the thread brought up less bunting as an explanation for his increased power this year. What i see as the main reasons are, he hasn't been going up to the plate and looking helpless vs righthanders, along with Carlos looking to have completely abandoned swinging mainly to make contact. Instead, he's going up there practically twisting himself into the dirt on every swing. With his natural power, when he makes good contact swinging for the fences, he can hit a ball really hard. These home runs he's been hitting have been mostly bombs, not Aoki like wallscrapers.

[TooLiveBrew]

Why and who projects Gomez to hit for less power next year?

 

Context-neutral statistical analysis. I appreciate the value of stats, and that they remind us not to get too excited one way or the other about things, but in a situation like this I don't put much value into what a projection will tell me Gomez will do in 2013.

[gregmag]

Interesting. Because we've never seen someone hit or pitch well in the minors and come to MLB and fall flat on their face.

I get it, it's easier to dismiss every young MiLB player than try to analyze each guy individually. To each his own. I just prefer to not apply such a blanket policy.

 

I said nothing of the sort.

 

My point was that Schafer has no MLB experience. He could be better than Gomez, and I hope he is, but to Logan who said we should just get rid of Gomez (in favor of Schafer) because Gomez can't hit is about as silly as can be. Gomez hasn't exactly lighted the world on fire with his hitting, but he's certainly not someone that doesn't have some value. He can hit, but he'll never approach what his ceiling may or may not have been.

 

In short, I don't like dumping MLB guys that still have some pretty decent value for a MiLB player that might be a fringe MLB guy. It isn't like Logan Schafer is the second coming of Ryan Braun (i.e. a sure thing).

 

It seems to me like you're being pretty generally dismissive of players who have not yet proved anything in the major leagues. If your formula is that we should prefer any player who has shown barely adequate offense in the majors -- which I think generously describes what Gomez has done this year -- over any player who is not "a sure thing" to produce in the majors, then I think you're pretty far toward the extreme of undervaluing prospects and overvaluing veterans. When we take money into account, your approach seems pretty unwise.

 

To say that Gomez "can't hit" doesn't seem to me quite fair, but it's nowhere near "as silly as can be." Any player who can't post a .300 OBP in the majors is flat-out bad at the most important part of baseball offense. If you're so focused on what a player has proved in the majors, why aren't you more concerned about what Gomez has proved -- that he can't get on base? It seems very, very unlikely that Gomez will every be a better OBP guy than Schafer, which right away provides strong fuel for the "dump Gomez, play Schafer" argument.

 

Having said all that, I actually do think Gomez has value, and hedging our bets on Schafer's arrival is a good idea. I'd play them in a soft platoon, a sort of hybrid cf / 4th of deal; or, as I was suggesting yesterday, do an Earl Weaver bit with the two of them, Aoki, and maybe one of the AA guys if he shows enough this year to make the team. Somebody will get hurt eventually, so it's not like having two cf's around is a bad thing, and Gomez seems likely to earn whatever salary he gets from being arby-eligible.

[TURBO]

All I know, is lately, Gomez has looked like a good ball player, who should be playing every day in a season that is lost.

 

4 homers in a week, to me at least, deserves more playing time. Forget Plush, he does not fit into our plans for the future, but letting Gomez play it out might prove he DOES fit into our future plans.

[yfinn6]

 

It seems to me like you're being pretty generally dismissive of players who have not yet proved anything in the major leagues. If your formula is that we should prefer any player who has shown barely adequate offense in the majors -- which I think generously describes what Gomez has done this year -- over any player who is not "a sure thing" to produce in the majors, then I think you're pretty far toward the extreme of undervaluing prospects and overvaluing veterans. When we take money into account, your approach seems pretty unwise.

 

To say that Gomez "can't hit" doesn't seem to me quite fair, but it's nowhere near "as silly as can be." Any player who can't post a .300 OBP in the majors is flat-out bad at the most important part of baseball offense. If you're so focused on what a player has proved in the majors, why aren't you more concerned about what Gomez has proved -- that he can't get on base? It seems very, very unlikely that Gomez will every be a better OBP guy than Schafer, which right away provides strong fuel for the "dump Gomez, play Schafer" argument.

 

Having said all that, I actually do think Gomez has value, and hedging our bets on Schafer's arrival is a good idea. I'd play them in a soft platoon, a sort of hybrid cf / 4th of deal; or, as I was suggesting yesterday, do an Earl Weaver bit with the two of them, Aoki, and maybe one of the AA guys if he shows enough this year to make the team. Somebody will get hurt eventually, so it's not like having two cf's around is a bad thing, and Gomez seems likely to earn whatever salary he gets from being arby-eligible.

 

(sigh)

 

Once again, I'm not being dismissive of minor leaguers and the fact that they can produce (at a much cheaper rate) as veterans. What I was NOT in favor of was letting Gomez walk when he has some value and should be flipped for something.. anything.

 

I'm willing to slack a bit on Gomez' OBP because he does other things so well. But, please, don't take that as I want the Brewers to sign Gomez long term. His hot week is likely just that.

[Nottso]

I'd like to see Gomez start every game for the rest of the year. Make it "his job" and nobody else's. I think that would give us, and more importantly, the powers that be, a much better idea of what Gomez actually has to offer.

 

Gomez hasn't been jerked around as badly as Gamel's been jerked around, but I still don't think he's been given a fair shot at showing what he can or cannot do as an every day starter. No platoon, no pulling him after a few poor at-bats. Let him show that he can work through a rough patch... or that he can't.

 

I think the Brewers have done very poorly, as an organization, when it comes to giving young talent a legitimate chance to succeed. Now is the time. There's no reason not to.

[rluzinski]

Why and who projects Gomez to hit for less power next year?

 

Someone in the thread brought up less bunting as an explanation for his increased power this year. What i see as the main reasons are, he hasn't been going up to the plate and looking helpless vs righthanders, along with Carlos looking to have completely abandoned swinging mainly to make contact. Instead, he's going up there practically twisting himself into the dirt on every swing. With his natural power, when he makes good contact swinging for the fences, he can hit a ball really hard. These home runs he's been hitting have been mostly bombs, not Aoki like wallscrapers.

 

When you see ANY batter put up a SLG in 206 PA that is 100 points higher than his career numbers, you should have some real skepticism that the batter can keep it up. Any projection system is first going to estimate that Gomez's power will be somewhere between what it ends up at this year and what it was previous to this year. Then it's going to bump that up a notch because Gomez is still young and do some regression. There are lots of other things that projection systems can and will do but that is the gist of it.

 

Obviously, if Gomez is taking a drastically different approach at the plate, that could result in a shift of expectations (good or bad) that no projection system is going to take into account. Certainly, cutting down on bunt attempts will raise his ISO but I'm not sure how large that effect would be. Everything else is just mostly speculation.

 

Gomez is a big strong guy who has always excited people because of his raw talent. He has displayed a nice tick in power the last couple of years but I think there is little chance he has a .466 SLG next year in a meaningful number of PAs. Notice I didn't saw no chance, as there are plenty of batters who have had large shifts in production, but they are the exception. I would be happy to wager against it.

[TooLiveBrew]

Forget Plush, he does not fit into our plans for the future, but letting Gomez play it out might prove he DOES fit into our future plans.

There are only two problems with considering Gomez part of the Brewers' future plans

 

1) FA after 2013

2) Boras client

[JackNicholson1974]

Gomez is hot right now, he should be traded in the next 24 hours as his value will never be higher.

[fondybrewfan]

Unless for some reason he actually has figured it out. If thats the case then you have an elite CF on your hands with all the tools with the exception of OBP. Yeah he probably won't keep this up but if you decide to trade him you could end up looking foolish if he finally has turned the preverbial corner. He is not that expensive might as well see what you have in the guy in a lost season.

[thebruce44]

 

It seems to me like you're being pretty generally dismissive of players who have not yet proved anything in the major leagues. If your formula is that we should prefer any player who has shown barely adequate offense in the majors -- which I think generously describes what Gomez has done this year -- over any player who is not "a sure thing" to produce in the majors, then I think you're pretty far toward the extreme of undervaluing prospects and overvaluing veterans. When we take money into account, your approach seems pretty unwise.

 

To say that Gomez "can't hit" doesn't seem to me quite fair, but it's nowhere near "as silly as can be." Any player who can't post a .300 OBP in the majors is flat-out bad at the most important part of baseball offense. If you're so focused on what a player has proved in the majors, why aren't you more concerned about what Gomez has proved -- that he can't get on base? It seems very, very unlikely that Gomez will every be a better OBP guy than Schafer, which right away provides strong fuel for the "dump Gomez, play Schafer" argument.

 

Having said all that, I actually do think Gomez has value, and hedging our bets on Schafer's arrival is a good idea. I'd play them in a soft platoon, a sort of hybrid cf / 4th of deal; or, as I was suggesting yesterday, do an Earl Weaver bit with the two of them, Aoki, and maybe one of the AA guys if he shows enough this year to make the team. Somebody will get hurt eventually, so it's not like having two cf's around is a bad thing, and Gomez seems likely to earn whatever salary he gets from being arby-eligible.

 

(sigh)

 

Once again, I'm not being dismissive of minor leaguers and the fact that they can produce (at a much cheaper rate) as veterans. What I was NOT in favor of was letting Gomez walk when he has some value and should be flipped for something.. anything.

 

I'm willing to slack a bit on Gomez' OBP because he does other things so well. But, please, don't take that as I want the Brewers to sign Gomez long term. His hot week is likely just that.

 

You may not mean to sound dismissive, but its really hard to notice that over the condescension. Your original point was that Schafer doesn't have a lot of MLB experience and how some rookies don't do well. Great...now how about we factor in projections, cost, other players on the roster who can play CF, and the expectations of a semi-rebuilding team.

 

Your stance on those issues could be outlined before becoming annoyed that people don't just automatically know and agree with your opinion on them.

[BrewersAA]

Gomez is hot right now, he should be traded in the next 24 hours as his value will never be higher.

 

I am not a 'trade anybody with value' kind of fan, but I agree with this statement. I was beyond upset that the brewers didnt trade randy wolf in the off-season. I had some many people telling me that 'you dont trade a good starter like that' and 'it would be a terrible move for the brewers an create a hole where the isnt one', and all i kept saying was the he would actually net them something good and that literally his value would never be higher and that he would likely ruin all of his trade value this year because he should have never had the season he did, he was as lucky as greinke was unlucky last season. I am not always right, obviously, and dont claim to be, but some of these potential moves just seem obvious to me.

 

Now we have Gomez, who has never looked better (hitting) in the bigs, and teams looking for outfielders at the deadline. because hes with Boras we have no shot at resigning him, trade him now while you can get something for him. Let schafer play the rest of the season and see what you have in him. If they decide he doesnt have it, use that extra payroll and go get someone. Schafer is getting old and hes entering that 'now or never' phase of his minor league career. I am not saying to trade him as a starting center fielder, but there is not a contender out there that couldnt use ELITE D off their bench, so he coudl bring something in trade wise. Heck his numbers are better than B.J. Upton this year.

 

Third thought on this, and the biggest reason why i think this would be a good move. I have seen Logan a few times now live and every single game he has been the best player on the field. And by no small margin. as far as the yee test goes, this kid passes with flying colors. I have seen more amazing defensive plays from logan live than i have seen on sports center... okay maybe not that much, but the kid can really play. He will never have gomez's power, but he has such a good clean stroke that he wont only get on base but he will run into about 10 homers a year. On the radio today an ex offensive lineman was saying that if you put 25 highschool football teams in a room you could walk in and spot the best QB of the group in 5 minutes, its just a way a guy carries himself, logan has that too. I got to meet him gamel, gindl, and green. He has the best character, green was a pretty good guy also, the other two were unimpressive.

 

With all that said, I would be happy is Gomez stays on the team, but make him everyday, otherwise, I see no reason not to trade him and let logan play.

[fondybrewfan]

Him being with Boras doesn't keep MIL from resigning him. Its not like the guy is Prince Fielder and would be a Top 5 FA prize in the offseason. Boras knows the guy isn't a superstar. I am not saying we should resign him but I don't think Boras is going to prevent it. I don't think it would be fair to compare Gomez to higher profile Boras clients.

[TURBO]

Boras is a sleezebag.

 

If Gomez plays well from here on out, he will have Gomez believing he is a superstar stud, and will make it really hard for us to resign him with the amount of money Boras will be asking.

 

If he sucks from here on out, no one will want him, and we can probably get him at decent value, but do we want to go down his road if he sucks?

 

It is a problem really no matter how you look at it.