Brewers new top 10?

[narwhalattack]

You still seem to be optimistic about Bradley. Sure he still has some time and has shown great stuff in the past, but his velocity has been down this year, which is pretty concerning. As for me, I'd like to see the velocity get back to the low-90s before I get excited about him.

[jmeks23]

People should be optimistic about Bradley and Jungmann, for different reasons. Jungmann is not striking out as many guys because he's developing other pitches in those situations. It's pretty well documented. I'm not worried about it with him, and his primary stuff is probably big league ready. For Bradley, he has tremendous upside and I think he's just working on figuring it out here in his first season of professional ball. He might be dealing with the groin injury still as well.

 

 

As an aside...I found Jonathan Mayo's top 20 for the Brewers to be interesting. Kentrail Davis #10? Jungmann and Bradley are 3 and 4 (Bradley 3 Jungmann 4) and Nelson is #9. I know it's relatively subjective, especially since he probably cares very little about the Brewers system but those rankings seem out of whack, even though he just updated them after the Greinke trade.

[TooLiveBrew]

In the Segura/Hellweg/Pena thread, Mass Haas posted a link to Jim Callis's latest Ask BA. Callis answers questions about the Greinke trade, & reveals his new Brewers top 10 list. Just figured I'd cross-post it here, since it's so germane.

[HiAndTight]

You still seem to be optimistic about Bradley. Sure he still has some time and has shown great stuff in the past, but his velocity has been down this year, which is pretty concerning. As for me, I'd like to see the velocity get back to the low-90s before I get excited about him.

 

 

 

I am. Because 14 months ago he was being argued as potentially the first lefty taken and a top 5 pick.

 

Lefties take longer to develop, but he has plus stuff. No reason to not be optomistic on him AND Jungman and the reasons have already been laid out in the post following yours. He said it well enough, I don't need to even add to it.

[CheezWizHed]

I'm pretty surprised at all the negative comments on Bradley myself. Nelson did very much the same thing a couple years ago (drop in velocity, not great results) and was at A-ball at the time. Now look at where he is.

 

I'd still keep Bradley up in the top 10 myself (or close at least).

[MVP2110]

I think right now Id have to go

1. Segura

2. Peralta

3. Jungmann

4. Coulter

5. Hellweg

6. Nelson

7. Pena

8. Thornburg

9. Gennett

10. Roache

 

granted I don't follow the minors like you guys do so my list is probably way off. I agree though I would love to see another power 50

[BrewersAA]

I'm pretty surprised at all the negative comments on Bradley myself. Nelson did very much the same thing a couple years ago (drop in velocity, not great results) and was at A-ball at the time. Now look at where he is.

 

I'd still keep Bradley up in the top 10 myself (or close at least).

 

this is really interesting and we are definately noticing a trend. Most of these college starters seem to really suffer from dead arms. We get them with poor velocity. I almost think Melvin and Co should consider a strict, and lower than current if they do have it, innings cap on the first pro year for college guys. I think their arms are way too abused in too short a time frame in college, more innings less time. So when they go through these full seasons its like a different sport. It also seems like the ones that were in relief in college fair much better, see thornburg, and maybe its because they had less arm stress. nelson, jungman, bradely, arnett, miller, burgos, and Frederickson are all recent draftees that i can think of that had much lower than expected post draft velocity.

 

I honestly think that these guys should spend their first year in the system as relievers and get up with which ever level the can and still be effective whether thats high A or double A or low A, what ever just as long as their stuff is effective, and they get comfortable with proball, and then the start out the next season at that level as a starter. I would wager you would see truer velocities and more success that way. Just my thoughts, im no baseball official or anything, but if you look at the college guys deemed to be relievers many of them shoot through the minors and are so successful that they are given a chance to start and they are very successful. Two recent brewers that have taken this path unintentionally and it worked are mike fiers and andre lamontange (until injury).

 

Its because of these feelings that i do worry too much about jungmann and bradley, i think both will be fine. also its why i hold out hope that arnett will get another chance to start.

[sheetskout]

The same thing happened to Madison Bumgarner if I remember. Not a college lefty but went through a dead-arm period at about the same age.

[fondybrewfan]

I guess the issue with college level pitchers falling back in Year #1 does put me a little at ease regarding Jungmann and Bradley; I guess the Arnett disaster is still weighing heavily on me. I will believe it when I see it in 2013 I suppose. They both should repeat High A to start the year.

 

I find it virtually impossible to make a good Top 10 list because I feel like I leave out too many guys. I could make a really solid Top 20 list though.

[TooLiveBrew]

I find it virtually impossible to make a good Top 10 list because I feel like I leave out too many guys. I could make a really solid Top 20 list though.

I feel similarly, and it seems like the Brewers have a lot of second-tier types of talent in the minors right now. Almost everyone I'd rank in a top 10 would feel pretty close to 1a-1j for me. Segura stands out as having talent & very few question marks, but after that there are probably 8-12 or so guys that seem to be about even.

[Tedaldtada]

I think Wily Peralta is still the cream of our pitching crop but I agree that we have a lot of B level prospects. Peralta is a solid B+/A- for me.

[paul253]

Jim Callis of BA recently gave us his new Brewers top 10. And just as a side note, he still considers the system as a whole to be in the lower third of the league. I imagine this is because of the lack of elite prospects. They should be able to get at least one in next June's draft as they should have a pick somewhere in the 9-13 range. Melvin needs to be really aggressive with that pick. Anyway, here it is:

 

Jean Segura, ss

Should provide plus offense, average defense for shortstop.

Tyler Thornburg, rhp

Big league struggles aside, has upside as potential No. 3 starter.

Wily Peralta, rhp

Hasn't been able to harness his explosive stuff this summer.

Jimmy Nelson, rhp

Has promising sinker/slider combo but hit speed bump in Double-A.

Ariel Pena, rhp

Better chance to start than Hellweg because he has superior command.

Johnny Hellweg, rhp

Though he's huge and throws hard, still has a lot to learn on the mound.

Scooter Gennett, 2b

Solid bat with some gap power, average speed and defense, good instincts.

Taylor Jungmann, rhp

The 12th overall pick in 2011 has shown average stuff and command in pro debut.

Jed Bradley, lhp

Taken three choices after Jungmann, has battled mechanics and struggled even worse.

Clint Coulter, c

The No. 28 overall selection in June has power, needs work behind the plate.

[FVBrewerFan]

1. Segura

2. Peralta

3. Thornburg

4. Rogers

5. Morris

6. Burgos

7. Nelson

8. Hellweg

9. Pena

10. Bradley

 

Obviously, my list is weighted towards AAA/AA players, unless it's a starting pitcher with a high ceiling. Burgos has better numbers at AA than Hellweg/Pena, yet nobody rates him higher- or in some cases not at all. Also believe Gennett over Morris is puzzling. We all have our opinions, not saying mine's any better (probably not), but it seems like sometimes we hang on to certain guys and put faith in who is "supposed to be" a top prospect, rather than looking at actual results. I do it too, just sayin'...

[paul253]

Burgos has better numbers at AA than Hellweg/Pena, yet nobody rates him higher- or in some cases not at all. Also believe Gennett over Morris is puzzling.

 

If Burgos and Morris can continue their success next season I'd be more willing to jump on the bandwagon. Morris was just average his first few years in the system (.251/.306/.436 in 2010 and .271/.299/.461 in 2011). I hope this is his breakout season but I'm hesitant to rank someone so highly based on one year. Same with Burgos. Outside of a brief stretch in Helena in 2010 he hasn't been very good. Guys like Gennett and Khris Davis have been successful year in and year out so I tend to think more highly of them.

[TooLiveBrew]

We all have our opinions, not saying mine's any better (probably not), but it seems like sometimes we hang on to certain guys and put faith in who is "supposed to be" a top prospect, rather than looking at actual results. I do it too, just sayin'...

This is a great point. To address the "supposed to be" part, most of that probably comes from physical tools a player has (or doesn't have), since MiLB stats alone don't necessarily tell you if a guy will be able to hack it in the bigs.

 

I will freely admit being one who's scratched his head about the love Gennett has gotten & continues to get from prospect-watchers. When I saw him in person with the T-Rats, I was really surprised by how slight he was... granted, that was two years ago. But when you read what places like Perfect Game or Baseball America's pundits have to say about him, they just gush about his swing. Check out what David Rawnsley wrote for PG, pre-2012, on Gennett:

---------------------------------------------------------

Gennett has received plenty of attention since the end of the 2011 season after hitting .411-2-14 in 90 at bats in the Arizona Fall League, but the fact is that Gennett (his given first name is Ryan) has flat-out been able to hit since early in his teen years, and his AFL performance is just a continuation of what he has always done. He also hit .300-9-51 in the notoriously difficult to hit in Florida State League in 2011, which is an even bigger accomplishment.

 

The rest of Gennett’s tool package is very good as well. He ran a 6.57 and threw 91 mph from the infield in high school while being named a PG/Aflac All-American. Maybe his most memorable experience at Perfect Game events, though, might have been at the 2008 National Showcase at the Metrodome in Minnesota where he nearly beat big Jonathan Singleton (now the Astros top prospect) in the home run hitting contest. The 5-10/160 Gennett probably hit more balls out than Singleton, but they kept curving just foul. Distance wasn’t a problem.

---------------------------------------------------------

Maybe he only ever turns into a guy with gap power and like 10-15 HR power if he makes the bigs, but I don't think I've yet seen a report on him that doesn't love his swing (I tend to avoid Keith Law like the plague, however... if you need to feel worse about one of your prospects, you can usually count on him for that). So even though he hasn't posted eye-popping stats yet, the scouting conclusion on him seems to be that his swing+other physical tools make him likely to have success as he advances up the ladder.

 

And Hunter Morris was actually a guy who was well regarded on draft day (post from the '10 draft discussion by Sessile Fielder, sharing Morris's scouting report; there are other posts just after that with info that seems pretty high on him too). I think what has people ranking Gennett ahead of Morris is part position-related, and part performance-related since Morris hadn't lived up to advanced hype until this season. Morris is a perfect example of why MiLB stats are a very imperfect way to rank players, but at this point I have a hard time putting him after Gennett myself... even though far more knowledgeable baseball people might not.

 

I think the main thing 'we do', as fans that follow MiLB, is place far more value on what a guy is doing right now than on how well he projects to play going forward. There's so much important development that goes on in the minors that isn't quantifiable, all we have are the stats. That's why I've really changed to placing far more weight on scouting reports in recent years. Imo you get much more reliable information from them than from looking at a player's MiLB stats.

[splitterpfj]

Gennett has been highly regarded since the Brewers signed him, which surprised many in the first place, as he had what seemed like a rock-solid college commitment.

 

I agree, right now Scooter's offensive stats aren't as good as many would have predicted for this season, but I have no doubt, he is still expected to be a major leaguer.

 

Whether Scooter starts in the big leagues for 10 years, or whether he becomes a bench player, I have a feeling he'll be the guy fans love, and stat lovers want to replace.

[TheCrew07]

Prospect lists are always very subjective based on whatever criteria whomever is doing them is using to judge the prospects.

 

I'm certainly an upside guy, but I also like to see production, and I will factor in the likely hood of a MLB career into the mix as well. Our most projectable pitcher has been so injury prone with horrible peripherals that no one has him on any top 10 list, I didn't even put him on my last 50. Who you ask? Mark Rogers... and it should be pretty obvious I've had a huge man crush on him, but how do you project a player like him with any kind of certainty given all he's been through?

 

Take a guy like Bradley... if he throws as hard as he did on the cape, then he's legit. If his average FB is in that 90ish range then he's just slightly above average for a LHP and and isn't missing bats anymore. Where's the truth? In his college career he never threw as well as he did that one summer, but that talent is obviously in there someplace... Or did he push himself too hard and burn his arm in the cape? Jed wasn't abused in college, not like Arnett's final year, he topped out at 98 innings, he's currently at 103. How could he possibly be suffering from a dead arm since May? With spring training he only had about 8 weeks of real baseball in by then? He should be good for at least another 20-30 innings.

 

As such, there's no way Jed sniffs my top 10, #15 overall pick in the draft or not. If he had this level of production but was still reaching the mid 90s then absolutely, but right now I'm not sure why he deserves to be in the top 10? I'm willing to be convinced, I've always been biased towards our LHPs, but I'm just not seeing anything to hang my hat on right now other than him being LH? Zach Jackson was a first round pick but there's wide gulf between his stuff at his peak and the rest of the pitchers taken in the 1st round in 2004.

 

I just picked Zach because pretty much everyone should be familiar with him and coming out of college his velocity was right where Bradley is now, from BA's draft report(subscriber content):

Teams that covet performance won't be able to ignore his numbers from the Cape Cod League last summer (6-0, 1.88) or with Texas A&M this spring (10-5, 3.55, 110-24 strikeout-walk ratio in 104 innings. Jackson commands three solid pitches: an 88-93 mph fastball that holds its velocity for nine innings, a slider that's a big improvement over his old curveball and a circle changeup. He's durable and athletic at 6-foot-5 and 230 pounds, and the fact that he's lefthanded enhances the total package even more.

 

I don't mean to compare Bradley to Jackson because I don't think they are all that comparable as pitchers, I'm just saying there is legitimate cause for concern based on his current stuff and performance. However if someone wants to latch onto his performance in the Cape or his draft position as justification for a top 10 slot on their list then that would be absolutely fine with me, we're all going to latch onto different aspects of different players, and I'm not sure there are any right answers. I'm just trying to say that I don't think draft position is more important that any other measure, be it raw tools, production, projection, whatever...

 

I'm not going to go out on a limb and make a definitive statement about any player until I feel I have a very good understanding of what that player is going to become, which is why I don't do it all that often. Unfortunately for me, the players from this last crop that I would have gone out on a limb for all got traded or got hurt. I tend to have plenty of questions/concerns about every young man and the more questions I have the harder it is for me to project them and then slot them on a list. I'll be honest, I don't have any more idea what to do with Bradley than I did with Rogers. That's just my angle on prospects and specifically a player like Bradley who isn't flashing tools or production but was highly thought of coming into the draft.

[logan82]

Whether Scooter starts in the big leagues for 10 years, or whether he becomes a bench player, I have a feeling he'll be the guy fans love, and stat lovers want to replace.

That is the impression I get. He sounds like a solid fundamental player but lacking some physical tools. We'll see.

[nate82]

At what point does Hunter Morris become a legitimate top 10 (organizational) prospect for the Brewers? He is currently doing very well in AA. If he does this in AAA next year where do the Brewers put Gamel? I am assuming the Brewers would try and find a position for him RF maybe? I'm not sure how athletic Morris is but could he play a corner OF spot?

[Tedaldtada]

At what point does Hunter Morris become a legitimate top 10 (organizational) prospect for the Brewers? He is currently doing very well in AA. If he does this in AAA next year where do the Brewers put Gamel? I am assuming the Brewers would try and find a position for him RF maybe? I'm not sure how athletic Morris is but could he play a corner OF spot?

 

I had him in my top-10 last User Driven P50 (7th actually). Yes, he could play a corner OF spot (and he has in the minors), but, I would rather he stays at 1B.

 

Personally, I suspect Gamel gets flipped for BP help. Both guys profile similarly, so we probably go with the younger, cheaper option.

[FVBrewerFan]

More likely, if he keeps it up he could start at 1B in 2014 when Hart is gone.

[igor67]

I'd say that Morris and Gamel profile quite differently. Gamel has always had moderate HR power, but carried a high average, good BB totals and gap power. Morris has improved the average and BB rate which were his weakness, but it is his HR power that will let him play first. Morris looks a lot more like Hart as a hitter now, while Gamel is more of a John Olerud. On an OPS level I'd rate them about equal right now, but it is getting really hard to have a good estimate of what Gamel will actually do.

[FVBrewerFan]

Sounds about right igor. I think Gamel needs to bring a lot of gloves to Spring Training. If he's healthy and rakes in Spring Training, his bat will have to play somewhere. Even if that means multiple positions to get him on the field. While it's too early to hand over 1B to Morris, you need to factor him in when deciding what to do with Hart.

 

If what you guys are saying about Khris Davis' arm is true, seems like he's destined to be packaged in a trade. That's not all bad, it is one of the reasons to have a strong farm.

[TooLiveBrew]

Noticed this in the Stars' media notes Mass Haas linked to in yesterday's Link Report:

 

After Brewers starting pitcher Zack Greinke was dealt to the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim for three top-tier prospects, the Stars now have seven of the Brewers top-15 prospects according to MLB.com. Topping the list is newly-acquired SS Jean Segura (1st) and he is followed by P Johnny Hellweg (6th), 2B Scooter Gennett (7th), P Jimmy Nelson (9th), OF Kentrail Davis (10th), 1B Hunter Morris (11th), and P Ariel [P]ena (12th).

Here's the link to the MLB.com list. I get the impression that the individual scouting reports on the list haven't been updated since pre-2012, so even though MLB.com added Segura, Hellweg, & Pena, I'm not sure how much weight should be lent to this particular list. And in general there were several things that made me scratch my head while reading through it. So be sure to get your grains of salt ready if you decide to click through & read it.

[TooLiveBrew]

Thank you to TC07, who linked to a bunch of good Baseball America content in yesterday's Link Report.

 

Jim Callis rated Jean Segura as the second-best prospect dealt on or around this year's deadline, while Hellweg & Pena came in at numbers seven and nine, respectively.