Discussing Segura, Hellweg, and Pena

[adambr2]

I am excited as I'm sure most are to see what these guys will bring to the Brewers organization.

 

For Segura, I think we might see his arrival by either June or so next year, or on opening day by default. I would be thrilled with an average defensive career SS with a .750 OPS and 30 SB or so a year as our regular #2 hitter.

 

Hellweg has had a successful transformation from the pen to rotation. From what I've heard, maybe the ceiling of a #2? I would guess he's in the 2014 rotation, if he doesn't end up back in the pen.

 

Pena has a very nice arm who could very well be some much needed help in the bullpen later next season. All are guys with upside who all have chances to be very successful at the MLB level.

 

Anyone have some better insight, player comparisons, etc?

[TooLiveBrew]

In the MiLB transactions thread, Mass Haas linked to a good recap of the trade by Baseball America's Matt Eddy. I'll copy & paste the relevant paragraphs --

 

Brewers general manager Doug Melvin carried through on his promise to trade Zack Greinke before the July 31 trade deadline, sending the righthander to the Angels for a trio of minor leaguers that included Los Angeles' top position-player prospect and top pitching prospect. Milwaukee restocks its system with shortstop Jean Segura and righthanders Johnny Hellweg and Ariel Pena. All three players have spent most of the season with Double-A Arkansas of the Texas League.

...

 

[segura:] Milwaukee surrendered a top shortstop prospect (Alcides Escobar) when it traded for Greinke less than two years ago, and now they acquire a shortstop prospect as they ship Greinke out of town. Segura has a significantly higher offensive ceiling than Escobar, though he lacks the range and consistency to profile as more than an average defender at shortstop. The Brewers may accept that tradeoff given Segura's offensive ceiling. Most scouts figure he'll be a plus hitter and plus basestealer, with the strength to hit for at least average power and the baserunning acumen to steal at least 20 bases per season in his prime. Segura played second base up through 2010, and his plus arm strength would fit at third base if the Brewers move him off shortstop. He ranked ninth in the Texas League in hitting (.294) and second with 33 steals at the time of the trade.

...

 

[Hellweg:] A late-bloomer who found his groove after moving from the bullpen to the rotation at high Class A Inland Empire last June, Hellweg shows the potential for two plus pitches and an average changeup, making him at worst a mid-rotation starter. He maintains 94-96 mph velocity for the duration of his starts while breaking off low- to mid-80s curveballs with tight rotation. Tall and lanky, Hellweg loses his release point at times, costing him control, though he's slashed his walk rate dramatically in three straight seasons in the minors.

...

 

[Pena:] Pena won't live down his dreadful Futures Game appearance from this year (eight runs, seven hits in a third of an inning) unless or until he establishes himself in the big leagues. He throws enough strikes to profile as a starter, though he lacks a third pitch to complement his plus 92-95 mph fastball and power mid-80s slider, which leaves him in the mix for back-of-the-rotation innings or potentially set-up work.

[TooLiveBrew]

Perfect Game pre-2012 Angels Top 10 Prospects article

 

2. SS Jean Segura – Baseball-reference player profile

 

Signed out of the Dominican Republic in 2007 as a 17 year old, Segura hit the ground running in his full season debut in 2010 in Low-A Cedar Rapids. His follow up in the hitter friendly California League was cut short by hamstring issues, though he did show promise after moving from second to shortstop in his 52 game 2011 season.

 

Generously listed at 5-foot-11, Segura has a small strike zone, which he commands well. Combined with his compact swing and excellent hand acceleration allow him to make good contact with just about anything in the zone. Segura also shows surprising power, though his approach is geared toward driving the ball into the gaps. Segura’s defensive tools are equally as impressive, as he combines good range and lateral agility with an above average arm. However, he can be frustrating at times as well, as he has shown the ability to range far to either side, set his feet, and then mishandle a ball that he is position to field cleanly. He is also an above average runner with good instincts on the bases who can thrive on a team with an aggressive baserunning philosophy, not unlike the one managed by Mike Scoscia in Anaheim.

 

Though he didn’t get a lot of time in at Inland Empire in 2011, Segura is likely to climb to AA Arkansas in 2012. With Erick Aybar set to hit the free agent market after the season, Segura will be auditioning for the 2013 starting shortstop job, though he will have a lot of things to prove in order to earn it.

6. RHP Johnny Hellweg – Baseball-reference player profile

 

After turning down the Marlins as a 48th round selection out of high school in 2007, Hellweg went to Florida State College in Jacksonville. He made tremendous strides there as he began to fill out his lanky 6-foot-9 frame and has become an excellent selection in the 16th round by the Angels in 2009.

 

Hellweg uses a smooth low effort delivery and long loose arm action to generate mid 90s velocity with good downhill plane. His two plane slider features very good depth and when he is able to locate, it can be a legitimate swing and miss offering. His changeup has made strides as a starter down the stretch, and its development will be important moving forward. Not only did he post excellent strikeout numbers as a starter, Hellweg also kept the ball on the ground very well, not allowing a single Home Run during his 14 starts (5:1 GO/AO ratio).

 

After a very strong finish at High-A in 2011, Hellweg will head to AA in 2012 to prove that his success in the starting rotation was not a fluke. If he continues to make strides he may not be far away from a trip to Anaheim.

10. RHP Ariel Pena – Baseball-reference player profile

 

Pena has taken the long route to the Angels 40 man roster but was added during the offseason as a 23 year old in spite of having pitched just one game above A ball. Pena’s performance has yet to match his potential, though his strong showing in his second stop in the hitter friendly California League was a very encouraging step forward.

 

The 6-foot-3 flamethrower has a power arsenal that he showed strides towards learning to harness in 2011. His high effort delivery and lack of polish on his third pitch (fringy-average changeup) suggest his long term future is in the bullpen. Pena’s high strikeout and groundball rates in 2011 were positive signs, and while he still struggled with walks, his 4.8 per nine innings was an improvement. His jerky delivery and high octane arsenal seem to be tailor made for a high leverage relief role, though if he can harness his stuff and pitch effectively for six plus innings at a time then Pena has some upside. His low-mid 90s fastball combined with a power slider give him a similar profile to teammate Fabio Martinez-Mesa (who just misses the top 10 after being sidelined with a shoulder injury in 2011), and though the Angels hope to develop one or both as a starter, they appear to be future late innings relievers.

 

Pena will likely head to AA for the first time in 2012 to work on his command and changeup. If he moves to the bullpen he could move quickly.

[TooLiveBrew]

- YouTube search results for Jean Segura

 

- YouTube results for Johnny Hellweg

 

- Searching YouTube for Ariel Pena came up empty

[TooLiveBrew]

On Segura, in terms of offense, one guy I thougt about right away is Asdrubal Cabrera -- but that's a comp. based on stats & not scouting.

[TheCrew07]

I posted the subscriber scouting reports from BA in the main trade thread, I felt guilty doing it there, so I'm not going to do it again here.

 

Segura is described as have plus speed but heavy legs? Kind of a weird way to say he's more fast than quick? Such things can be easily remedied with more core strength, but he's not going to have the range of Escobar for example, so people should temper their defensive expectations a little, he was moved to SS because of his arm, not because of his range. I think he'll hit and be a more offensive than defensive player which is fine as long as he makes all the plays he can get to.

 

Pena has been getting the crap beat out of him because of his futures game performance by just about everyone. I'm not sure how or if that's fair, but it's the reality of having that kind of arm and then just grooving FB after FB to good hitters with the whole world watching. I think he's fairly boom or bust as a starting pitcher, but I think the pen is a legitimate fall back option for him.

 

Hellweg... hmm. Quick aside... Is it just me or is there suddenly a plethora of these relievers converted to starting pitchers that are having great success? As was discussed in another thread, it really calls into question the quality of coaching in the college ranks (which is typically very high in other sports). I wonder if that's because there's just no consensus on good pitching mechanics, pitch counts, and so on? At any rate, I think Hellweg has a higher floor, his fallback appears to be more of a back of the rotation type starter, but he could also go back to relieving if he fails.

 

I think that from a control standpoint Pena, Hellweg, Peralta, and Thornburg are all pretty much on the same level. They have plenty of stuff, will they be able to get ahead enough of MLB hitters to be successful? Regardless, I'm happy adding 2 more legitimate pitching prospects, every extra prospect just mitigates more risk. Between all of the pitchers from A+ through AAA we should be able field a pretty darn good rotation around Yo, even if 2/3 of the guys fail.

 

All in all the trade was basically exactly what I was hoping for which is an odd experience for Melvin and I... I like the trade even more considering Daniels was playing hardball (damn him) and didn't want to get up Perez, Profar, or Olt. For discussion sake I don't think he was wrong, I think the Angels overpaid and I'll definitely take it.

 

edit. Forgot to mention their ceilings. I think all 3 have fairly high ceilings, Segura could be a 4 WAR position player and both Pena and Hellweg could be mid to top of the rotation guys.

[Mass Haas]

Fun headline from 2012 Anaheim spring training:

 

Is Angels' Ariel Pena the new K-Rod?

[TooLiveBrew]

All in all the trade was basically exactly what I was hoping for which is an odd experience for Melvin and I... I like the trade even more considering Daniels was playing hardball (damn him) and didn't want to get up Perez, Profar, or Olt. For discussion sake I don't think he was wrong, I think the Angels overpaid and I'll definitely take it.

This is exactly my take on it, and honestly if I'm a Rangers fan, I think I'm happy that Daniels wasn't willing to move talent like Perez/Olt/Profar for a rental player. But I definitely agree that it seems like the Angels overpaid, which is just awesome.

[Mass Haas]

Busy night, and I can only imagine what the Major League Forum looks like tonight (we have a Major League Forum? ), probably linked already but another good read here --

 

Angels hitting coach Jim Eppard tells a story that helps show why the team is so high on shortstop Jean Segura.

[Mass Haas]

MiLB.com writeup

[And That]

Hellweg appears to be closing in on an inning limit for the year. He's pitched 30.1 innings more than last year, which was his career high. Remains to be seen how far the Brewers are going to push him.

[Mass Haas]

Each of the 3 new Brewers acquisitions were optioned for first time in 2012, and will have two option years remaining headed to 2013 camp.

[TooLiveBrew]

Each of the 3 new Brewers acquisitions were optioned for first time in 2012, and will have two option years remaining headed to 2013 camp.

Phew! That means, no matter what, the Brewers will be able to hang onto Suppan!

[TooLiveBrew]

Duplicate post from the MLB forum thread...

 

Jonathan Mayo of MLB.com weighs in on the return for the Brewers, including some video of Segura & Hellweg.

[Eye Black]

Regardless, I'm happy adding 2 more legitimate pitching prospects, every extra prospect just mitigates more risk. Between all of the pitchers from A+ through AAA we should be able field a pretty darn good rotation around Yo, even if 2/3 of the guys fail.

The thought of eventually filling the major league rotation with guys from the organization rather than the FA market is certainly an exciting one. TC07, always appreciate your insight on system building, and your depth of knowledge regarding young players. I noticed you mentioned in another thread that all three are top 10 prospects in the Brewers system, just curious where you would rank each of them within the top 10 right now?

 

I went back and watched parts of the Futures Game earlier tonight (kept it on the DVR for just such an occasion). A few amateur observations.... Segura has a very wide stance and almost touches the ground with his knee on a couple of his swings. He had a very solid single to LF on a Dylan Bundy hanging breaking ball. He appears very calm and polished in the field (played 2B with Profar at SS). He did a nice job covering 2nd on a caught stealing and just seems to have a mature presence on the field.

 

Ariel Pena's problem was difficulty locating his pitches. He was throwing everything in the upper half of the zone or above it. He walked Scooter Gennett on 4 straight pitches. Only two of the hits he allowed were on pitches in the lower half of the zone (to Singleton & Olt). One silver lining was he did not give up any HRs. One mildly interesting note, it was one of his high fastballs that Wil Myers fouled off into the lens of the ESPN camera.

 

I am looking forward to following these guys progress through the Brewers organization.

[TheCrew07]

I was going to sit down and do a list from scratch anyway because I was so unhappy with my last user 50, maybe a post trade deadline user 50 would be in order?

 

My top 7 would be:

1. Thornburg

2. Segura

3. Peralta

4. Hellweg

5. Roache (benefit of the doubt hoping the power potential is legit)

6. Pena

7. Taylor (raking out of the gate as a supposedly raw HS prospect, love it)

 

Then I'd have to do some serious work because the next 5 or so guys are all pretty close, some guys with ceilings like Arcia and some like Schafer who doesn't have the ceiling of the top guys but he has the highest floor and is deserving, he's a MLB player... In addition Burgos is making a case, as is Morris, and so on. There will be some tough calls out of that next group.

[Mass Haas]

AUDIO: Jim Callis of Baseball America joined WSSP to discuss the three new Brewers

[Mass Haas]

John Sickels minorleagueball.com thread -- good discussion as well (scroll down at link)

[Mr Southpaw]

MLB Prospect Watch already has them 1, 6 and 12 in the Brewers Top 20.

[SRB]

John Sickels minorleagueball.com thread -- good discussion as well (scroll down at link)

Wow, there are some uninformed comments in there. What did those people expect the Brewers to get for Greinke, Jurrickson Profar? Melvin got the best SS/2B prospect realistically available, and two high-upside pitches to boot. Nobody living in reality could find that return underwhelming for 10 starts with no compensation picks.

[fondybrewfan]

I would almost prefer the play him at 2nd if he has gold glove potential there. But I understand the need at SS is greater

[jjfanec]

MLB Prospect Warch already has them 1, 6 and 12 in the Brewers Top 20.

 

mlb.com/mlb/prospects/watch/y2012/

 

Interesting they put the new guys in but somehow left Jed Bradley at #3 ahead of Thornburg, Hellweg, Nelson, Pena, etc

[BrewersAA]

 

My top 7 would be:

1. Thornburg

2. Segura

3. Peralta

4. Hellweg

5. Roache (benefit of the doubt hoping the power potential is legit)

6. Pena

7. Taylor (raking out of the gate as a supposedly raw HS prospect, love it)

 

 

I LOVE this! I just did one and had Roache as the Brewers top hitter behind Segura and I was doubting my self a little because he has no pro at-bats, but i think you might agree with me that his bat has more potential than any other in our system regardless of pro atbats (pre trade of course). I also had Taylor at 10 and then backspaced him off and put Rogers there as a good luck charm for sunday. A big difference we have is that i have Jimmy Nelson as our top pitching prospect with the step forward he took this year and his reported 98mph heat with sink, thats front line stuff.

 

I also almost put KhD as a top ten player, his doubleA showing so far is really making him look like a big league player to me, what do you think? (Wish he could play third)

[TooLiveBrew]

maybe a post trade deadline user 50 would be in order?

I had this same thought late last night after the Link Report. I think that would be the perfect time for a refresh.

 

John Sickels minorleagueball.com thread

The most encouraging part of Sickels's analysis to me was this --

 

"[Pena] has plus velocity in the 92-95 range, sometimes higher, and his slider can be very, very good. His changeup isn't as good as the fastball and slider, but he's made substantial progress improving his command this year."

 

And the first thing I thought when I read: "[Hellweg's] biggest weakness at this stage is erratic command, a common problem for very tall pitchers who have issues repeating their mechanics." ... was, Mr. Hellweg, meet Mr. Tunnell...

[BrewersAA]

Maybe start a Post Greinke UDP 50 thread?? I will put out a 50