Greinke traded to Angels for three prospects; Rangers nearly won the bidding (Latest: revisiting this trade in December 2015; post 481)

[Kelbysdaddy]

If hellweg or pena do anything productive its just a bonus at this point. Segura for 10 greinke starts was a total steal itself.

 

Not that it still isn't a huge steal, but it would be 10 starts of Greinke and a compensation pick for Segura+.

The angels don't get a comp pick for greinke since he wasn't on the team for the whole season.

[Nottso]

If hellweg or pena do anything productive its just a bonus at this point. Segura for 10 greinke starts was a total steal itself.

 

Not that it still isn't a huge steal, but it would be 10 starts of Greinke and a compensation pick for Segura+.

The angels don't get a comp pick for greinke since he wasn't on the team for the whole season.

 

Yes, but the Brewers would have gotten a comp pick if they had lost Greinke through FA as opposed to trading him. So, they gave up 10 Greinke starts and the comp pick for Segura et al; and I'm sure glad they did.

[Eye Black]

Yeah, Profar for Segura is a complete no-brainer.

 

Absolutely. I've been extremely bullish on Profar since well before the trade last year. I proposed actually giving up Greinke AND K-Rod or if need be Axford(when he was going well again) for Profar and many thought that was ridiculous.

 

I think a lot of people (myself included) didn't think there was any chance the Rangers would give up Profar for a package of Greinke + any player on the Brewers roster not named Ryan Braun. Profar was never a viable option in the case of the Brewers, and IMO if he is traded over the next year the deal will involve Giancarlo Stanton.

[Kelbysdaddy]

oscar tavaras and david price have also been brought up a lot as trade targets for profar.

[brewcrewdue80]

Hiandtight

 

I'm generalizing, this could all have been a process over the years. Hart would have been traded away that year. ARam was rumored in trades last year, while you're saying trying to win the club was at the time fully out of it. If a team can take on these players salaries, while giving up some talent in return, then that money is just used on some sort of replacement next season. If you win with the prospects you're in great shape with cheap longer cost controlled players. This, while that player you traded away, his contract is gone so the money is there to find a replacement.

So, in theory, wouldn't be costing the team all hopes of winning. It's that whole Rays success in that they've done it for a long period of time and stuck with it to see it work.

I don't expect every trade to work out the way Segura's has. It goes with the ideas behind finding a player trading away Betancourt or A-Gonz. Junk wont return gems. It returns junk. In Hart/Weeks/ARam they wouldn't be considered junk. Whether they returned gem players would have to be seen. But in trading them away, this isn't trading away players I seen as long term core. They would be under pricey contract for 3 years or less. And so long as the team went ahead and used the money in the offseason to fill whatever holes are there then good.

This isn't a ploy in line with Houston/Miami...trade all away and then not spend any money to see the team attempt to win. They are just flat out accepting 100 loss seasons today and their fan base is hurting cause of it.

I don't know how many trade deadline deals actually worked for the team acquiring the Big League player. Vs how many deals worked for the team giving away that player for prospects but I just feel it's been in favor of the team getting prospects.

[molitor fan]

Interesting to dig this up now that Hellweg is out of the orginization, Pena is a fringe guy and Segura is apparently going to be traded for minimal return....

 

I do wonder if the Rangers offer was any good and if it was true that Melvin wanted Olt badly

[Jenkins5]

Yeah, Profar for Segura is a complete no-brainer.

 

Absolutely. I've been extremely bullish on Profar since well before the trade last year. I proposed actually giving up Greinke AND K-Rod or if need be Axford(when he was going well again) for Profar and many thought that was ridiculous.

 

I see Profar as being a transcendent player. The premier SS for the next 15 years potentially. He a switch hitter with power already at 6'0 165, speed, a cannon for an arm, and VERY good defense who also has a good eye and can draw walks.

 

Lol this is why you can't judge trades for a couple years. Greinke, KRod, & Axford for Profar. Now Profar is a backup IF who most people are against going to get as part of Lucroy trade. He is still young & talent but an after thought now.

 

At the time, segura came & looked to be a star, since he is in a 2 1/2 year slump. Hellwig lost all value to me when they refused to move him to pen & crank it 100 mph. They kept starting him like Mark Rogers and killed his arm.

 

Pena looked really good last year. Think he at worse is a good bullpen go option

[jerichoholicninja]

This trade went from looking really good at the time, to looking even better when Segura and Hellweg were dominating, to looking like the Brewers are ultimately going to get nothing out of. Of course Zack should have been traded but the result seems really disappointing. Didn't Zack also tank for the Angels and they missed the playoffs?

[3and2Fastball]

2.3 defensive WAR out of Segura in the last 3 years isn't horrible, especially after suffering through the Yuni B fiasco. Segura just hasn't been able to hit well enough in the last 2 years. He's given us just 4.8 WAR over the last 4 seasons. Personally I think his 4 WAR season in 2013 alone at SS was worth a few months of Greinke, but others will disagree.

[jerichoholicninja]

2.3 defensive WAR out of Segura in the last 3 years isn't horrible, especially after suffering through the Yuni B fiasco. Segura just hasn't been able to hit well enough in the last 2 years. He's given us just 4.8 WAR over the last 4 seasons. Personally I think his 4 WAR season in 2013 alone at SS was worth a few months of Greinke, but others will disagree.

 

Ya, I would disagree. His couple hot months almost cost the club a lot as he was offered an extension but thankfully turned it down. We might actually have been stuck with him for awhile while paying him for 2 months of success.

[MrTPlush]

2.3 defensive WAR out of Segura in the last 3 years isn't horrible, especially after suffering through the Yuni B fiasco. Segura just hasn't been able to hit well enough in the last 2 years. He's given us just 4.8 WAR over the last 4 seasons. Personally I think his 4 WAR season in 2013 alone at SS was worth a few months of Greinke, but others will disagree.

 

Thank you for attempting to sugar coat that somehow. Nothing like a 1 WAR player. Though in reality he is proving to be close to 0.

 

Jean Segura was a total flop and did nothing for us. Hellweg flopped and is gone. Who even knows about Pena. In the end we might get nothing out of this trade.

[SoCal Brew Crew Fan]

It's not over yet. Pena still can be a part of the pen. 2016 will be crucial for Segura's value. He starts out ok, it could enhance his trade value for when he's moved. Not great so far, but not over yet.

[502 to Right]

This thread made for some interesting retrospective reading. And this is why people need to pump the brakes on condemning (or praising) the Lind trade. Not even seasoned GM's have a crystal ball that tells them how trades will work out. All we can do is wait and see.

[3and2Fastball]

2.3 defensive WAR out of Segura in the last 3 years isn't horrible, especially after suffering through the Yuni B fiasco. Segura just hasn't been able to hit well enough in the last 2 years. He's given us just 4.8 WAR over the last 4 seasons. Personally I think his 4 WAR season in 2013 alone at SS was worth a few months of Greinke, but others will disagree.

 

Ya, I would disagree. His couple hot months almost cost the club a lot as he was offered an extension but thankfully turned it down. We might actually have been stuck with him for awhile while paying him for 2 months of success.

 

Well, lets be really real about this: Doug Melvin cost the club a lot in offering extensions to players based on a small sample of work. Bill Hall, Corey Hart etc etc

[logan82]

2.3 defensive WAR out of Segura in the last 3 years isn't horrible, especially after suffering through the Yuni B fiasco. Segura just hasn't been able to hit well enough in the last 2 years. He's given us just 4.8 WAR over the last 4 seasons. Personally I think his 4 WAR season in 2013 alone at SS was worth a few months of Greinke, but others will disagree.

I would completely disagree. His couple months didn't get us into the postseason and probably cost us draft position. His couple good months postponed the rebuild and gained us nothing.

[sveumrules]

Jean Segura 2014-15

 

288 Games / 1,141 Plate Appearances / 0.2 fWAR

 

Jurickson Profar 2014-15

 

0 Games / 0 Plate Appearances / 0.0 fWAR.

[MKE81]

Sweet. I get to read complaints about Melvin now for his trades and such while your determining factor for Segura is simply WAR. A recent Ivy League grad, who is now in the Indians front office, saw the impact of using analytics in today's game rating players so decided to write his thesis rating GMs performance over the past 10yrs using analytics solely based on transactions outside of the draft (FA signings, trades). Melvin was Top 5. I love when people sit around and cite WAR as almost the end-all-be-all in determining a player's value

[MrTPlush]

Well, lets be really real about this: Doug Melvin cost the club a lot in offering extensions to players based on a small sample of work. Bill Hall, Corey Hart etc etc

 

Corey Hart's contracts were perfectly fine...actually they were pretty darn good.

 

They gave Bill Hall a little bit of money(wasn't anything that crazy) after over 1000 PAs of elite play at the hot corner. Hard to fault him for handing out that contract.

 

Rickie Weeks is another one that comes up, but then again that one could have easily worked out had injuries not derailed his career. Weeks was really good in 2010 and 2011.

 

Doug Melvin did exactly what a small market needed to do. Try to get players locked up early to cheap contracts. I am sure you don't want to mention Ryan Braun or Jonathan Lucroy in that argument do you? The problem he had is I think he was a bit too careless with it. The only two he ever offered that probably were a bad idea from the get go were Segura and Axford. Both of those players came out of no where and were playing way better than they really were capable of.

[MrTPlush]

Sweet. I get to read complaints about Melvin now for his trades and such while your determining factor for Segura is simply WAR.

 

You don't have to click on the thread. It is that easy...no really...that easy.

[sveumrules]

Jean Segura 2014-15

 

64 wRC+ (122nd of 124 qualifiers)

-46.8 batting runs (124th of 124 qualifiers)

25.6 soft hit percentage (124th of 124 qualifiers)

[MrTPlush]

Another fantastic Jean Segura stat:

 

DEADLAST in BB% with a 2.2% walk rate

 

His K/BB ratio also was ranked DEADLAST

 

OBP 5th Worst

 

Slugging % 5th Worst

 

OPS 4th Worst

 

3rh Highest Ground Ball %

 

5th Lowest Hard contact %

 

I could go on forever...how someone defends Jean Segura at this point is just amazing. The guy has probably the worst offense in baseball and his defense is nothing special to make up for it.

[Thurston Fluff]

Sweet. I get to read complaints about Melvin now for his trades and such while your determining factor for Segura is simply WAR.

 

You don't have to click on the thread. It is that easy...no really...that easy.

 

He may not have said it eloquently but he does have the right to comment on the misuse of a stat as much as people have the right to misuse it. I don't tell people to not click on the page if they want to misuse WAR so it would be nice if people who point out the misuse of it would get the same consideration.

There isn't any such thing as an accurate single number that captures a player's value. I have serious reservations about it's ability to even give a reasonably accurate portrait of a single player's value, let alone lump several players WAR together and measure it against another player. To me WAR is akin to measuring the value of water by computing the value of the components it's made up of. To make matters worse it weighs each component as equal even though everyone knows it takes a two:one ratio to make it. I applaud the attempt to make a single number all encompassing. It's just that it hasn't done that to any degree of accuracy IMHO. To make matter worse it's practical application seems to have morphed into the defining metric for a player's value.

[logan82]

You have to make a determination if a trade was good at the time of the trade. It looked like we got good value for Greinke at the time of the trade. Looking back it really was a bad trade. Hopefully we have better scouts and analytics going forward than we did at the time of this trade so we will have more success.

[sveumrules]

To make matters worse it weighs each component as equal

 

While WAR is definitely far from perfect, the components are not weighted equally. There are far more batting runs in play than there are fielding runs than there are baserunning runs.

 

Of the 141 qualifiers last year the highest number of batting runs was +74.3 (Bryce Harper) while the lowest was -30.6 (Chris Ownings). That is a spread of 104.9 runs.

 

Of the 141 qualifiers last year the highest number of runs saved was +30.0 (Kevin Kiermaier) while the lowest was -18.1 (Gerardo Parra, oddly enough). That is a spread of only 48.1 runs.

 

Of the 141 qualifiers last year the highest number of baserunning runs was +8.3 (Mookie Betts) while the lowest was -11.1 (Billy Butler). That is a spread of only 19.4 runs.

[MrTPlush]

Sweet. I get to read complaints about Melvin now for his trades and such while your determining factor for Segura is simply WAR.

 

You don't have to click on the thread. It is that easy...no really...that easy.

 

He may not have said it eloquently but he does have the right to comment on the misuse of a stat as much as people have the right to misuse it. I don't tell people to not click on the page if they want to misuse WAR so it would be nice if people who point out the misuse of it would get the same consideration.

There isn't any such thing as an accurate single number that captures a player's value. I have serious reservations about it's ability to even give a reasonably accurate portrait of a single player's value, let alone lump several players WAR together and measure it against another player. To me WAR is akin to measuring the value of water by computing the value of the components it's made up of. To make matters worse it weighs each component as equal even though everyone knows it takes a two:one ratio to make it. I applaud the attempt to make a single number all encompassing. It's just that it hasn't done that to any degree of accuracy IMHO. To make matter worse it's practical application seems to have morphed into the defining metric for a player's value.

 

WAR isn't a horrible stat if you are using it right. dWAR is pretty bad overall and using WAR as your only argument also has big flaws. Like I have heard people say one player is better because he has an 8.5 WAR and another player has 7.5 WAR...not the right way to use it.

 

But I have no problem with saying some one who has an 8.5 WAR is an elite star and someone with 0 WAR sucks. WAR is pretty good putting a player into a group: 0-2 players 2-5 players 5+ players. But once again I don't like overall WAR because that includes dWAR...personally just oWAR is useful. WAR for pitchers can also be a bit debatable too if you ask me.

 

Basically oWAR for someone who plays starter at-bats is fairly accurate when looking at a player overall.