Greinke traded to Angels for three prospects; Rangers nearly won the bidding (Latest: revisiting this trade in December 2015; post 481)

[pretendastronaut]

Way too many people hanging on the false hope that LucroY gave in that interview on Tuesday.

 

Anyone remember what Zack told Adam McCalvy when McCalvy asked him if he'd go to a big market team like NYY or Boston?

 

I'm fairly sure Zack said something along the lines of "yeah, I wouldn't have a problem with it. Just more fans to ignore." or something along those lines. I know Zack came out and said it wouldn't bother him, that's the main point. Too many people banking on Zacks mental condition keeping him in Milwaukee.

 

Two things will dictate where Zack goes - money, and contention. Money more than contention.

 

I don't know why you keep acting like everyone else but you is convinced Greinke is going to come back to Milwaukee. All that anyone is saying is, there's a chance, nobody is "banking" on him coming back. There's a chance, there's no denying that. Maybe it's .5%, who knows, but nobody is advocating that it's 95% like you're acting.

 

Also, fair enough point on the interview with McCalvy, but you're also overlooking that in the same interview, Greinke said he'd gladly give up the millons of dollars to just play baseball and not have to deal with all of the media and fame, but he wants to compete against MLB level players.

[slappzilla]

Maybe I am misreading posts, or not understanding them well, but it seems like people think there is a legit shot, say in the 50% range, that Greinke will sign with the Brewers in the offseason. That's the tone I get from certain posts, and that is the tone I am catering too. If I am misunderstanding, than I am sorry, but I don't see how you can have a legit conversation about next years team and/or rotation and seriously include Greinke in the talks, that is all.

 

Read the post that I quoted, the whole thing (I didn't quote the whole thing cause I wanted to concentrate on the one line). Does that not seem like that opinion is steered towards Greinke resigning with the Brewers? I don't think I was out of line.

[jjfanec]

Not one person has implied Greinke is likely to come back here. Most have said there is a small chance. You act like there is NO chance. The last time you were this definitive on something it was Josh Johnson being a lock to the Rangers. Let's hope the same is true this time

[molitor fan]

Really excited about Hellweg.......looked into his stats a little deeper and it is all about his command....he was hitting 98 last night and Jill Cacic fro the AA club had an ok interview with him here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SmOi19k7wyU&feature=youtu.be

 

his Midwest league stats from a few years ago were very interesting: 50 innings - 24 hits - 52 walks.....

 

4 of his last 5 starts have been ridiculous too with 1 clunker

[chuckiehacks]

I have no idea how this translates to any chance of Grieinke coming back, but I think his Social Anxiety Disorder is a big deal. Last year, he and his wife rented a house directly behind mine. We shared an alley and all of the mailboxes for our complex were in one place. I ran into Zack once or twice all summer. Saw his wife a few more times. While I know most professional athlets keep to themselves, we've had others in our area that were much more visible.

 

One of our other neighbors always greets new people when they move in. She went to the Greinke's house (not knowing who had moved in) and told them about an upcoming neighborhood event. His wife very poiltely said that her husband doesn't do things like that. Someone else knocked on their door soon after they moved in, again, just to welcome them (and again not knowing who it was). No answer, as Mrs. Greinke wasn't home. Shortly there after, the windows were covered with aluminum foil. That was when we learned who our new neighbor was.

 

Again, I don't know what all this means for where Greinke will sign. But I do know that the Social Anxiety Disorder part of the puzzle is significant. I can see why he might be a beach person, and as others have mentioned, Anaheim isn't LA. My bet would be on him staying there.

 

But if anyone would eschew conventional wisdom to stay somewhere where he was comfortable, it would be Greinke.

[slappzilla]

Nice starts so far for Jean Segura and Johnny Hellweg at Brewers AA Huntville. Segura 7-16 .438 AVG, 4R, 2RBI, and SB in 4 games. Hellweg won his first start yesterday pitching 5 innings with 7 K's and no runs!

[zzzmanwitz]

Maybe I am misreading posts, or not understanding them well, but it seems like people think there is a legit shot, say in the 50% range, that Greinke will sign with the Brewers in the offseason. That's the tone I get from certain posts, and that is the tone I am catering too. If I am misunderstanding, than I am sorry, but I don't see how you can have a legit conversation about next years team and/or rotation and seriously include Greinke in the talks, that is all.

 

Read the post that I quoted, the whole thing (I didn't quote the whole thing cause I wanted to concentrate on the one line). Does that not seem like that opinion is steered towards Greinke resigning with the Brewers? I don't think I was out of line.

I will repeat, I do not think the chances of him resigning with Milwaukee is good (maybe 10-20%)

 

I took that directly from my post that you were quoting. Here are a few more of my posts...

 

Do I think it is a good chance we resign him? No. But out of him, CC, and Prince, I think the chances of Greinke resigning the greatest by far.

And I believe he COULD be coming back, he also COULD NOT be coming back. I'm not putting all my hopes and dreams into him coming back,.

Did you listen to the interview? All he said was that he thought ZG had a chance of coming back to Milwaukee and that he was pretty sure he wouldn't play in New York or Boston. I'm not saying that another team like LA or Texas won't out bid Milwaukee, but I don't think it is ONLY coming down to money.

 

I think my view has been pretty clear, you seem to think in very absolutes (as others have given you a hard time for). While I do not think the chances are great for him to ever pitch for the Brewers again, to rule it out entirely as you and a few others have done seems foolish given what we know (and more importantly, what we don't know).

[slappzilla]

so why did you spend so much of that post talking up the possibility of him signing with the Brewers via what LucRoy said, and that he said he likes it here and his disorder and what not?

 

If I type 3 paragraphs on how KRod is a great RP, can I negate all 3 of them as long as I add in "but I don't think he's a great RP"?

 

Why push the point at nausea one way, only to say "but I think it won't happen"?

[zzzmanwitz]

I am only giving reasons why it may happen. You seem to be saying that it WON'T happen, period.

[thebruce44]

so why did you spend so much of that post talking up the possibility of him signing with the Brewers via what LucRoy said, and that he said he likes it here and his disorder and what not?

 

If I type 3 paragraphs on how KRod is a great RP, can I negate all 3 of them as long as I add in "but I don't think he's a great RP"?

 

Why push the point at nausea one way, only to say "but I think it won't happen"?

 

Dude, just read what people actually type. This is one of the few times someone here can speak in absolutes, you interject your own thoughts into other people's posts. Can we move on? This isn't something we need to debate.

[monty57]

Nice starts so far for Jean Segura and Johnny Hellweg at Brewers AA Huntville. Segura 7-16 .438 AVG, 4R, 2RBI, and SB in 4 games. Hellweg won his first start yesterday pitching 5 innings with 7 K's and no runs!

 

Only a few games in, but Segura is off to a good start. Hellweg had a good first start and Pena had a bad first start.

 

All three of these guys have good upside. If Segura can even be a league average SS for six years and we hit on even one of the two pitchers, this is a very good trade. I'd trade half a year of a vet for three near-MLB-ready, high-upside prospects as often as I could. We need more guys like this in the minors.

[TooLiveBrew]

Nice starts so far for Jean Segura and Johnny Hellweg at Brewers AA Huntville. Segura 7-16 .438 AVG, 4R, 2RBI, and SB in 4 games. Hellweg won his first start yesterday pitching 5 innings with 7 K's and no runs!

He actually did allow a run, just an unearned one.

 

Hellweg also only allowed one hit last night, on a groundall (he had a 6:1 GO:AO ratio). And honestly one thing that was really impressive to me is that the 1st inning was sloppy as heck -- two BBs, and a throwing error by the catcher on a double-steal attempt allowed the unearned run to score. After that, Hellweg was perfect over the next 11 batters before the groundball single. Darnell Coles must've seen something, mentality-wise, in Hellweg, because he pulled him after the end of the 5th despite Hellweg's pitch count still being under 80.

 

It was a dominant performance, and like molitor fan noted in post #380, four of Hellweg's last five starts have been excellent.

[Roderick]

If Segura can even be a league average SS for six years and we hit on even one of the two pitchers, this is a very good trade.

 

If Segura can be league average SS for six years, we wouldn't even need the pitchers to do anything to have made an outstanding trade.

[jjfanec]

If Segura can even be a league average SS for six years and we hit on even one of the two pitchers, this is a very good trade.

 

If Segura can be league average SS for six years, we wouldn't even need the pitchers to do anything to have made an outstanding trade.

 

Exactly! If Segura becomes a solid player we did very well. If on top of that Hellweg becomes a middle of the rotation guy and Pen becomes a reliever we did great. If Segura becomes a solid player, Hellweg becomes a number 2 type guy and Pena becomes a 4/5 type guy we had one of the best trades in Brewer history. The upside on Segura and Hellweg especially is really high so there is a chance this could be an amazing trade, but as we have seen with prospects before Segura could become a platoon type guy, Hellweg could blow out his arm, and Pena could become AAAA arm

[rluzinski]

What's interesting about player salaries these days is that it is mimicking the economy in general. There is a quickly shrinking "middle class" of player.

 

I don't think that is true. The distribution of player talent in any sport is something like a bell curve, with the distribution of talent in MLB on the extreme end of one tail. You end up with a kind of pyramid shaped distribution. If what you are suggesting is true, there would be a glut of above average (but not elite) MLB players being consistently underpaid and/or overpaid. That would represent a major market inefficiency that could be exploited by other clubs.

[endaround]

What's interesting about player salaries these days is that it is mimicking the economy in general. There is a quickly shrinking "middle class" of player.

 

I don't think that is true. The distribution of player talent in any sport is something like a bell curve, with the distribution of talent in MLB on the extreme end of one tail. You end up with a kind of pyramid shaped distribution. If what you are suggesting is true, there would be a glut of above average (but not elite) MLB players being consistently underpaid and/or overpaid. That would represent a major market inefficiency that could be exploited by other clubs.

 

 

The amazing thing about baseball is despite the players being the top of tier of the profession, the top 1/10 of 1 percent, there is still such huge variation in ability.

[danzig6767]

What's interesting about player salaries these days is that it is mimicking the economy in general. There is a quickly shrinking "middle class" of player.

 

I don't think that is true. The distribution of player talent in any sport is something like a bell curve, with the distribution of talent in MLB on the extreme end of one tail. You end up with a kind of pyramid shaped distribution. If what you are suggesting is true, there would be a glut of above average (but not elite) MLB players being consistently underpaid and/or overpaid. That would represent a major market inefficiency that could be exploited by other clubs.

 

The pretty stunning thing to me is the length of these monster contracts being given out the last few years.

 

Votto is a great hitter, but the Reds have guaranteed him an insane 12 years. From 2018-2023 they'll owe him 25 million a year. Think about that. He easily could be in clear decline and/or breaking down physically by the time 2018 starts, yet the Reds will still owe him 125 million dollars. Cole Hamels and Cain were given 6 years at huge money even though pitchers health is the ultimate injury risk in baseball. Pujols contract is also way to long and at some point his contract will end up being the Angels version of A-Rod to the Yankees. Fielder got 9 years. Werth 7 years.

 

I get that a lot of baseball is swimming in money due to teams signing big new cable deals or soon to be signing a new cable deal, but the odds are extremely high that most to all of these really long huge money contracts will end up being varying degrees of albatrosses.

[JohnBriggs12]

That if ZG frustrates some Angels fan this postseason the way he frustrated Briggs last year, Briggs thinks the Angels won't make ZG a big contract offer... blow the top off meaning making the $140M-ish offer Greinke will probably wind up signing as a FA.

 

 

Exactly. I was referring to the stories that the Angels would be going all out to sign him to an extension. I was trying to point out that he might not be what they thought they were getting (like last night when he was touched up for 6 runs in 7 innings including 4 in the first). I'm not predicting it, or wishing for it, just saying it's within the realm of possibility. Greinke took a risk turning down the Brewers offer.

[slappzilla]

He took a risk? how

[Dragonbait]

He took a risk? how

 

I think if he pitches very poorly the rest of the year, there's a chance it could hurt his value. More teams might be weary. I honestly do not expect that to happen, but it is a possibility.

[slappzilla]

It's a possibility, but I'd bet that even if he finishes the year as a clunker for the Halo's, he rakes in more than the Brewers offered him via FA.

[monty57]

He took a risk? how

 

He could get injured. But, by the time the latest offer was on the table, the injury risk wasn't that great relative to the potential gain. If we wanted to extend Greinke, we should've done it the day of the trade from Kansas City, as Greinke had two years of potential injury risk to worry about. I don't know if we made an offer then or not, but that would've been the logical time to do it.

 

I prefer offering "Lucroy-type" deals to the prospects as they come up to offering extensions to guys in their final year before free agency. I hope we can turn a few Greinke starts into eight years of Segura and maybe eight years of Hellweg and Pena. Hard to predict, but it looks like Segura will be the type we'd like to make a "core player."

[JackNicholson1974]

I think there is a very real chance given Greinke's perceived psychological history (warranted or not) that if he gets traded into a pennant race and melts down that it WILL affect his leverage and contract in the offseason. If the Brewers really did offer him 5yrs and 112.5 million and he performs poorly in a large market down the stretch or in the post season that he would be lucky to get a contract at 20mil plus per year.

 

Now, I think he will be just fine statistically speaking and this will be a moot issue, but it is a real possibility, therefore, it is absolutely a risk.

 

People like to justify a player turning down 112.5 million by saying that we would do the same if there were a chance we could get 140 million. I dont think there is a human being alive that is making a living wage that would turn down 112 million for a chance at 140 million. For a pitcher to do that when one pitch could put them out for a year and torpedo a long term contract to turn down something like what was offered by the Brewers is a huge risk.

[zzzmanwitz]

He took a risk? how

 

He is risking not having $100+ Million. He could injure himself tomorrow and never be able to pitch again. Likely? No. But the chance is there. Its his life, he has the right to risk anything he wants. He trusts in his abilities and he will probably cash in on his risk.

[slappzilla]

You could say that about anyone walking the face of the earth.

 

Seriously, the risk he took by not taking what the Brewers offered him was minimal at best.