Greinke traded to Angels for three prospects; Rangers nearly won the bidding (Latest: revisiting this trade in December 2015; post 481)

[dlk9s]

dlk, was that a Princess Bride reference?

http://i.imgur.com/M0fDU.gif

[DuWayne Steurer]

Like a pack of wolves......

[adambr2]

And I believe he COULD be coming back, he also COULD NOT be coming back. I'm not putting all my hopes and dreams into him coming back, but to completely write it off like you would most other upper tier FAs is not valid based on the type of person that Zack is. The teams that can offer the most money are the places he would least like to go.

 

Why is this a standard belief of Zack?

 

He just got traded to LA, which was one of his preferred destinations. Do we really have any reason other than wishful thinking to believe that Greinke will not accept the highest bid if it comes from New York, Boston, etc?

 

IMO, Greinke is no different than any other free agent. He is going into free agency to get the best possible offer he can get, and he will take it. If he had any other agenda, I believe he would have happily accepted 5 years and $112M from us.

 

As an aside, the MLBPA doesn't look very favorably on top tier FA's accepting much less than the highest offer.

[SoCal Brew Crew Fan]

I actually think Anaheim is the perfect place for Greinke. Moneywise it's big market...they can pay whatever the big boys can. It is run like a real organization without the crazy egos and is likely to remain competitive for a long time. It's also not a fishbowl like the east coast markets or Chicago. There is nowhere near the media focus there is up here in LA for the Dodgers. For a big market, it's really low key.

[rickh150]

He's taking the most money. It'll be a "business decision."

[zzzmanwitz]

"Do we really have any reason other than wishful thinking to believe that Greinke will not accept the highest bid if it comes from New York, Boston, etc?"

 

Jonathan Lucroy was quoted as saying Greinke would not like to play in New York or Boston. Lucroy has known him personally for nearly 2 years. That is about 2 years longer than any of us have known him. He specifically said those two cities. Now, does that rule out a mid level team like a Detroit or Texas or LA Angels couldn't pony up some big bucks to sign him? Not at all. I am purely speaking of places where there is a definite difference in the type of media coverage there is (LA Dodgers, Chicago Cubs, New York Yankees, Boston Red Sox). I agree that the Angels is a good spot for Greinke in terms of quality of team, ability to pay, and media relations.

 

He is different from other big name FA because he has Social Anxiety Disorder. It is a documented fact. Of course Greinke wants to make as much money as he can, but he also wants to enjoy his time playing. That's what Free Agency is all about. Its about picking the best possible situation for the player, that includes many factors, not just money. I will repeat, I do not think the chances of him resigning with Milwaukee is good (maybe 10-20%), but to say because he already said no once doesn't mean he won't revisit the idea. In fact, I'm pretty sure Doug Melvin and Zack Greinke when asked the question about resigning after the trade, they both made it sound like it would at least be an option to explore. Sure, it could be just PR on both of their parts, but it could also be sincere. No one here can say that there is no chance he will resign here because we A) don't know what the actual final offer was, B) we don't know if that is the most the Brewers are willing to offer, C) we don't know which other teams are going to pursue him, D) we don't know how much they will offer, and E) we don't know how important getting maximum money means in relationship to his personal well being.

 

As an aside, the MLBPA doesn't look very favorably on top tier FA's accepting much less than the highest offer.

 

Is this just an assumption that we make as fans or is there something documented somewhere that states this?

[adambr2]

"Do we really have any reason other than wishful thinking to believe that Greinke will not accept the highest bid if it comes from New York, Boston, etc?"

 

Jonathan Lucroy was quoted as saying Greinke would not like to play in New York or Boston. Lucroy has known him personally for nearly 2 years. That is about 2 years longer than any of us have known him. He specifically said those two cities. Now, does that rule out a mid level team like a Detroit or Texas or LA Angels couldn't pony up some big bucks to sign him? Not at all. I am purely speaking of places where there is a definite difference in the type of media coverage there is (LA Dodgers, Chicago Cubs, New York Yankees, Boston Red Sox). I agree that the Angels is a good spot for Greinke in terms of quality of team, ability to pay, and media relations.

 

He is different from other big name FA because he has Social Anxiety Disorder. It is a documented fact. Of course Greinke wants to make as much money as he can, but he also wants to enjoy his time playing. That's what Free Agency is all about. Its about picking the best possible situation for the player, that includes many factors, not just money. I will repeat, I do not think the chances of him resigning with Milwaukee is good (maybe 10-20%), but to say because he already said no once doesn't mean he won't revisit the idea. In fact, I'm pretty sure Doug Melvin and Zack Greinke when asked the question about resigning after the trade, they both made it sound like it would at least be an option to explore. Sure, it could be just PR on both of their parts, but it could also be sincere. No one here can say that there is no chance he will resign here because we A) don't know what the actual final offer was, B) we don't know if that is the most the Brewers are willing to offer, C) we don't know which other teams are going to pursue him, D) we don't know how much they will offer, and E) we don't know how important getting maximum money means in relationship to his personal well being.

 

As an aside, the MLBPA doesn't look very favorably on top tier FA's accepting much less than the highest offer.

 

Is this just an assumption that we make as fans or is there something documented somewhere that states this?

 

I believe that the Brewers could re-sign Greinke in free agency, and I think they could afford the offer that it would take to do so (whether or not this would be wise is another story).

 

And I believe that Greinke has told Lucroy that he would prefer not to play in Boston or New York and I also believe that Greinke may indeed feel that way himself. I also believe that when the offers start coming in, those things matter less and less. Remember, CC also didn't "want" to play in New York, he wanted to play on the West Coast, and he preferred to stay in the NL. Neither of those things happened.

 

I would like to see some examples in the last ten years or so where the biggest FA's in MLB passed up the highest offer to take a supposed better situation.

 

Yes, I understand that he has dealt with anxiety in the past, but every assumption that this would prevent him from playing in a big market or succeeding in one has always been nothing more than that -- an assumption.

 

And I don't think you're going to find anything documented regarding the MLBPA frowning on its biggest free agents taking less money in free agency. I'm sure this isn't an "official" policy, but it was mentioned when CC was considering turning down the Yankees offer as a free agent. Of course, there's not much they can do about it if the player is dead set, but most players don't want to stir the pot in their union -- and it does make economical sense, the top FA sets the market, and if he takes a substantially low offer, it's going to affect the market for others.

[pretendastronaut]

I would like to see some examples in the last ten years or so where the biggest FA's in MLB passed up the highest offer to take a supposed better situation.

 

Well, the over-the-top-and-not-totally-accurate example is Jered Weaver. Though he wasn't a free agent, he left, by most estimates, 40-50 million on the table by signing his contract extension, to play where he was happy playing.

 

Cliff Lee left 30 million on the table to pitch for Philly because he preferred playing there.

 

Roy Oswalt just took a gamble at leaving millions on the table because he wanted to pitch only where he was happy and competing.

 

And if the rumors are anywhere near accurate with CC, the Yankees supposedly had to bid against themselves and up their offer an extra 20 million so he wouldn't turn them down.

 

No doubt it's a rarity, but its not like it hasn't happened. None of this is to say I believe Greinke will be back, personally I'd say there's 5-10% odds he comes back. But I do think some people aren't just after top dollar, especially when you get to Monopoly money level. Heck, on my level, if I was choosing between two jobs that the salary difference was $5,000 and I knew I'd love working at the lower paying place way more, I'd go there in a heartbeat.

[Team Canada]

I actually think Anaheim is the perfect place for Greinke. Moneywise it's big market...they can pay whatever the big boys can. It is run like a real organization without the crazy egos and is likely to remain competitive for a long time. It's also not a fishbowl like the east coast markets or Chicago. There is nowhere near the media focus there is up here in LA for the Dodgers. For a big market, it's really low key.

 

I agree with this. There was a quote today or yesterday from one of the Angels coaching staff about him being a beach person.

[The stache]

I like the trade, and treated myself to a nice Segura rookie card:

 

http://img41.imageshack.us/img41/1957/segura.png

[JohnBriggs12]

Right now there are very high expectations in Anaheim for Greinke. But lets not forget he allowed 15 runs (12) earned in 3 postseason starts last year. There's a very real possibility he could do that again facing the likes of the Yankees. Think Anaheim will blow the top off the Brewers offer if they are eliminated in round 1? This isn't Bob Gibson in his prime. So far he's faced the offensively challenged Rays. Lets see how he does facing the better offensive clubs in the AL.

[JJHardy7]

I agree with this. There was a quote today or yesterday from one of the Angels coaching staff about him being a beach person.

 

[sarcasm]Link or source? He seems more like an ice fishing guy IMO.[/sarcasm]

[RobDeer 45]

Finally got on here to express my happiness with this trade. As soon as we got ZG and Marcum I was very happy because I thought it would give us an opportunity to contend and then an opportunity to replenish our farm system. It's too bad Marcum was injured this year because he could have gotten something back for us. These days, pitching really does make the world turn. Hopefully we can start developing more with this group coming through, make a few runs, and then trade them off when the time comes. I really think it's the way to go.

[Nottso]

Think Anaheim will blow the top off the Brewers offer if they are eliminated in round 1?

 

What do you mean by this? I don't understand what you mean by "blow the top off" and I also don't understand how the Angels can do anything if they're eliminated early. This trade is all done, no?

 

I'm not asking to be jerk-like, I'm asking because I don't know.

[TooLiveBrew]

What do you mean by this?

 

He means that Greinke isn't clutch enough to be a True #1™... but he doesn't come out & say that, so if ZG winds up pitching well in the postseason, he doesn't have egg on his face.

[Nottso]

I get that part. I still don't understand what "blow the top off the brewers offer" means or how the Angels could do it.

[TooLiveBrew]

That if ZG frustrates some Angels fan this postseason the way he frustrated Briggs last year, Briggs thinks the Angels won't make ZG a big contract offer... blow the top off meaning making the $140M-ish offer Greinke will probably wind up signing as a FA.

[Nottso]

Thank you! That makes perfect sense to me now.

 

Edit: And for the record, I feel like an even bigger dope than usual, now.

[BillScottCanRake]

But lets not forget he allowed 15 runs (12) earned in 3 postseason starts last year. There's a very real possibility he could do that again facing the likes of the Yankees.

 

If the implication is Greinke isn't good enough to win in the postseason then why should Milwaukee bother trying to resign him, especially at his asking price? Even if he's willing to sign 5 yrs/100 million, any team that has aspirations of playing meaningful October baseball should avoid him and spend their money more wisely.

[trwi7]

The return of BSCR!

[monty57]

I honestly don't know if any team will "blow the top off" the Brewers' offer, regardless of what Greinke does from here through the end of the Angels' season. If the Brewers did offer a 5 year/$112MM contract, then that is one of the biggest offers ever for a RH SP. I am interested to see how this offseason goes. With all the extra money flying around from the upcoming TV deals, player contracts could soar. If Greinke is worthy of a contract that "blows the top off" the Brewers' offer, then the Brewers really need to figure out their strategy going forward, because their $30MM television deal will make them "small market" again really quickly.

 

As to "blowing the top off" the Brewers' offer, a 5-year/$112MM offer is $22.4MM/year. According to Cot's, only 15 contracts (13 different players) have averaged $22.4MM/year or more. If someone offered a $25MM/year deal, that would match Ryan Howard as the fourth highest annual salary in league history. Salaries could get downright scary if someone like Greinke (who is not the best player in the game) starts signing contracts like that. Only Roger Clemens and Alex Rodriguez (twice) would have signed bigger AAV contracts.

[TooLiveBrew]

Well Hamels already signed a deal for $24M AAV, and he's not the best pitcher or player in MLB. I think we've already entered the period where salaries are going to be downright scary. Pujols's deal also comes to mind (not that he's not an all-time great, but considering the age range the Angels purchased).

[Oxy]

What's interesting about player salaries these days is that it is mimicking the economy in general. There is a quickly shrinking "middle class" of player. Teams will pay gigantic salaries for the perennial all-stars and then play as many young cost controlled players as possible who will often be able to put up numbers similar to a guy making $7-$9 million bucks on the Free Agent market. I think this is a good strategy, but you have to make sure a guy will produce if you are going to pay him lots of dough, otherwise you end up signing Jayson Werth and Ryan Howard to horrible budget crushing deals.

 

Signing Braun for long term may be one of the best small market contracts ever.

[thebruce44]

What's interesting about player salaries these days is that it is mimicking the economy in general. There is a quickly shrinking "middle class" of player. Teams will pay gigantic salaries for the perennial all-stars and then play as many young cost controlled players as possible who will often be able to put up numbers similar to a guy making $7-$9 million bucks on the Free Agent market. I think this is a good strategy, but you have to make sure a guy will produce if you are going to pay him lots of dough, otherwise you end up signing Jayson Werth and Ryan Howard to horrible budget crushing deals.

 

Signing Braun for long term may be one of the best small market contracts ever.

 

All the more reason for a team like Milwaukee to lock pre-arby players up these last few years and trade for prospects right now. Especially for starting pitching.

[slappzilla]

"Do we really have any reason other than wishful thinking to believe that Greinke will not accept the highest bid if it comes from New York, Boston, etc?"

 

Jonathan Lucroy was quoted as saying Greinke would not like to play in New York or Boston.

Way too many people hanging on the false hope that LucroY gave in that interview on Tuesday.

 

Anyone remember what Zack told Adam McCalvy when McCalvy asked him if he'd go to a big market team like NYY or Boston?

 

I'm fairly sure Zack said something along the lines of "yeah, I wouldn't have a problem with it. Just more fans to ignore." or something along those lines. I know Zack came out and said it wouldn't bother him, that's the main point. Too many people banking on Zacks mental condition keeping him in Milwaukee.

 

Two things will dictate where Zack goes - money, and contention. Money more than contention.

 

Zack can sign with the Angels, Yankees, Rangers, (insert big money contender here), for huge $$$, and play on a team that has an outlook to contend for years to come......or he could sign with the Brewers for decent $$$, and play on a team that may contend in the next year or so but with hardly the same long term contending outlook as other teams that will offer him more $$$.

 

It's pretty open and shut when you think about it. LUcroy can talk about how Zack liked Milwaukee all he wants, and how he thinks there's a chance Zack may come back in the offseason, but I don't see how someone with any sort of MLB common sense can seriously see that scenario coming to fruition.