Time to trade Gallardo?

[monty57]

For trade value, how does Yo compare to Shields? Shields contract is for 2013 with a 2014 option, so the Royals get two seasons vs a potential 2.5 for Yo if traded in-season this year.

 

Their numbers aren't that far off. Shiels' career ERA is 3.84 and WHIP is 1.21 with 1303 K & 354 BB in 1512.2 IP (7.75 K/9, 3.68 K:B, 2.1 BB/9), ERA+ 108. Yo's career ERA is 3.68, WHIP is 1.30 with 967 K & 370 BB in 962.1 IP (9 K/9, 2.61 K/BB, 3.5 BB/9), ERA+ 112.

 

Shields is 31 (12/20/1981) while Yo is 27 (2/27/1986). Shields played in a tougher division, but Yo plays in a hitter's park.

 

Unless teams see a problem with Yo going forward, then I think he should net at least as much as Shields did in trade, and Shields (plus Wade Davis) brought back Wil Myers and Jake Odorizzi (BA #4 & #92 prospects). That's kind of like packaging Yo & Gorzellany for Shelby Miller and Kolton Wong. I don't think a top 10 prospect + another top 100 prospect, or two top 50 prospects is out of the question if we were to trade Gallardo this season or next offseason.

[brewcrewdue80]

The only problem comparing Shields to Gallardo is the amount of CGs Shields has for his Career. Which offered a clear Cy Young consideration 2 years ago?

I don't think Gallardo is in the same class as Shields. You're looking at Gallardo having more BBs than Shields in over 500IP less pitched! Sure he has higher K/Rate but still translates as you show a lower K/BB ratio.

 

Another problem I'm seeing is that teams you can see trade for Yo kinda happened and went. With what Cleveland/KC/AZ/ have done to go with the moves of the higher payroll clubs. I think the market is a whole lot smaller making the return less. MLBTR had Baltimore in search of a top of the Rotation starter post today with the return potentially being Schoop and Eduardo Rodriquez. Maybe the Brewers get that and one of the low end SPs on Baltimore today? That's more in line what I think the club may be getting for him currently.

[brewcrewdue80]

The only problem comparing Shields to Gallardo is the amount of CGs Shields has for his Career. Which offered a clear Cy Young consideration 2 years ago?

I don't think Gallardo is in the same class as Shields. You're looking at Gallardo having more BBs than Shields in over 500IP less pitched! Sure he has higher K/Rate but still translates as you show a lower K/BB ratio.

 

Another problem I'm seeing is that teams you can see trade for Yo kinda happened and went. With what Cleveland/KC/AZ/ have done to go with the moves of the higher payroll clubs. I think the market is a whole lot smaller making the return less. MLBTR had Baltimore in search of a top of the Rotation starter post today with the return potentially being Schoop and Eduardo Rodriquez. Maybe the Brewers get that and one of the low end SPs on Baltimore today? That's more in line what I think the club may be getting for him currently.

[monty57]

But Shields is now exiting his prime, while Gallardo should be just entering his. The drop in fastball velocity could worry teams, which is why I hedged things with "Unless teams see a problem with yo going forward." If there isn't an issue, then the next few seasons should be Gallardo's best, which should be worth quite a bit in trade.

[Roderick]

@monty

 

what do you think we could get in return for gallardo? i don't think that there is anyone in the minors that projects to be as good as gallardo. from what i have heard all we have is a bunch of 2's and 3's in the system. gallardo may not be a kershaw, but he's still a #1 type of pitcher. i agree that it doesn't hurt to ask around. not even ryan braun is untouchable. if you can get a ridiculous deal for braun you have to consider it. the brewers aren't the yankees, so this is stuff that the team has to consider. i personally wouldn't trade him unless the return was really really good. it would have to be a prospect that is ready to go.

 

Gallardo is not close to a #1 type pitcher in my book. I would consider him a #2. To me if you can get the Shields package, I would take that in a second (or creatively take less and ship Weeks with him). The Brewers pitching staff may yet turn it around, but I think they lost too big of an opportunity when Gomez and Segura were batting out of their mind.

[monty57]

For some reason, Gallardo has lost velocity this year. Maybe it's the World Baseball Classic, maybe it's something else.

 

If he can't find that lost velocity, I think GM's will shy away from him. He's not old enough to lose a couple MPH, so that could be a big warning sign.

 

If he gets his velocity back, I think he has lots of trade value. I used Shields as a comp because he is a recent top-of-the-rotation pitcher to be traded. While Gallardo may not have as good of numbers as Shields, he is close enough to be in the conversation. The big thing in Gallardo's favor is his age. Shields' numbers came during his "prime" years, and he is now past his prime. Meanwhile, Gallardo is not yet into his "prime" years. Going forward, that is a big point for Gallardo. Of course, he has to find that lost velocity.

[3and2Fastball]

I'd love to see Gallardo traded for a couple of Top 100 prospects. I think the James Shields comparison is a good one although Gallardo might have *slightly* less value than Shields but not a lot less.

 

I think the Brewers could also get a prospect for Ramirez (especially if trading him to an AL team), Hart & Lohse

[TooLiveBrew]

Gallardo is absolutely in his prime seasons, which makes the velocity loss (whether it's a temporary or permanent thing is another issue entirely) all the more concerning.

[JohnBriggs12]

I'd love to see Gallardo traded for a couple of Top 100 prospects. I think the James Shields comparison is a good one although Gallardo might have *slightly* less value than Shields but not a lot less.

 

I think the Brewers could also get a prospect for Ramirez (especially if trading him to an AL team), Hart & Lohse

 

 

I don't see the Brewers dealing any of those guys as I don't think they are willing to concede next year too. They have too many quality player in their prime at reasonable cost to just do a Cub type overhaul.

 

Now Aoki has trade value too, and is near the end of his prime. He could bring something back of value that they are missing without signaling a drastic overhaul.

[monty57]

without signaling a drastic overhaul.

 

I think this is the main problem. Attanasio does not want the fans to think they aren't "going for it" out of fear that the fans will stop showing up at the ballpark. What will cause drastic change is if we retain a high payroll and fans stop attending. When expenses remain fixed, but revenues drop dramatically, owners do funny things. I think this is likely if the team doesn't turn things around soon.

 

Personally, I think that if the long-term plan is explained to the fans, they will buy in. Attendance will drop some, but the fans won't feel cheated, so they will still be fans. Milwaukee fans stopped attending games in the past because the perception was that the Seligs were making money while putting a sub-par team on the field. Attendance started rising for the Brewers before they started winning because, like me, fans in the early 2000's were excited to know that better times were coming.

 

Put together a long-term plan and let the fans know what you're doing. It's not that difficult.

[JohnBriggs12]

Braun, Gomez, Segura and Lucroy are cornerstone players and all under 30 and under team control. Not many teams have better cores than that. This team has grossly underachieved. It is not grossly under talented. You don't blow up a core like that. A guy like Aoki would have tremendous value to a team like the Rays, who are challenged offensively but have plenty of young major league ready starting pitching and can't take on much in salary. He's a unique player, but they are better positioned to replace him with a Schafer or another OF from somewhere for 2014 than they are a Ramirez, who has value but even that is diminished by his age.

 

I'm not sure what they'd get back for a diminished Gallardo at this point. There are going to be plenty of arms available at the trade deadline. A team needing him isn't likely to have any pitcher close to the majors that's ready, so you are looking at class A type pitching prospects. All well and good but we get back to the track record of developing young arms. If they are going to deal pitching, perhaps someone out there would covet a reliever.

[TheCrew07]

Braun, Gomez, Segura and Lucroy are cornerstone players and all under 30 and under team control.

 

I agree with your premise except for the Gomez part, he only has 3 years of team control remaining, he's not really a "core" player.

 

To get the pitching the Brewers need they will have to trade someone of value to get it and we have tons of OF depth/flexibility.

 

Having a hitting core is all well and good, but if we don't have the pitching, what does it matter? I've never wanted to rebuild, I despise the idea of a rebuild, but if we won't move a couple of MLB pieces to get pitching, what does it matter?

 

If the Reds would do like a Stephenson for Roache swap I'd be all over it, but he's probably 2 years away from MLB ready. There aren't many moves available in a given year for young MLB ready pitching, 1 maybe 2 at most, so if that's what we want then Melvin has to move when the opportunity presents itself. This pitching issue is something that should have been addressed starting in 2006... looking to acquire a young impact pitcher here and there that would develop and be ready to help the original core do some damage. That's just not Melvin's trading MO which is why Tampa continually beats people to punch acquiring young impact pitching in trade after trade, leaving the scraps for everyone else.

[nate82]

If the Reds would do like a Stephenson for Roache swap I'd be all over it, but he's probably 2 years away from MLB ready. There aren't many moves available in a given year for young MLB ready pitching, 1 maybe 2 at most, so if that's what we want then Melvin has to move when the opportunity presents itself. This pitching issue is something that should have been addressed starting in 2006... looking to acquire a young impact pitcher here and there that would develop and be ready to help the original core do some damage. That's just not Melvin's trading MO which is why Tampa continually beats people to punch acquiring young impact pitching in trade after trade, leaving the scraps for everyone else.

 

Not to derail this but I would look at trading Khris Davis to the Rays for Enny Romero. The Rays need a DH and Davis would fit there but I am not sure the Rays would give up Romero for Davis. I do think the Rays would be interested in Haniger or Roache.

 

I believe GM's are hesitant to trade within their own division when it comes to prospects. Every GM will trade an MLB player to a divisional rival but prospects there is going to be a lot of hesitation from both GM's on giving up a prospect to a team in their own division. I like what you are thinking but I don't believe any GM is going to look at a prospect for prospect trade within their own division, within their own league sure but I don't believe any GM is going to be comfortable giving up a prospect to another team in their division. I would do it but I just don't believe any GM in baseball will do this.

 

I like where you are going with trading from a position of strength. I believe the Rays would be another match as I am not all that sold on their OF prospects beyond Myers. Blake Snell for Haniger would be a good trade for both teams. I believe Haniger will be able to hit for more power than either Josh Sale, Drew Vettleson, or Mikie Mahtook will be able to and will thus make him a better corner OF.

 

Now for Blake Snell he is currently at a K/9 of 10.3 in the Midwest league and he looks to be a legit #2 or #3 starter I would have to see more from him to put him up higher than that right now. I was going to say Roache for Snell but the gap in talent is to far and wouldn't be a fair trade. I don't see this as being a prospect for prospect trade more would have to be added on both sides for a deal like this to get done. I wouldn't be surprised if Khris Davis, a catcher, and at least one other pitcher is put into the trade with Davis and Haniger. From the Rays I would target Felipe Rivero or Tyler Goeddel either one would be fine though Rivero maybe a stretch.

[brewcrewdue80]

Kinda got off subject on Gallardo trade away.

 

Sigh.

 

Gallardo, lost velocity, poor efficiency in pitches. At this point, any trade of Gallardo has to be an absolute selling at lowest value. If I'm any GM out there having the lost velocity alone puts me in power in the trade talks. There is zero chance Gallardo nets anything remotely like Shields, I thought before this season and now even moreso. I'm at a wonder if he can even fetch a top 100 SP at all. Why trade that prospect away? Now, trading a top 40-80 batter I think is within reason, but really? How does that help the Brewers?

I think Gallardo has lost immense value thus far this season. This is like last season in that the team honestly has to ride a turnaround or just stand pat. Gallardo needs a couple 10+K outings to re-instill some faith he hasn't lost some of who he is. Lost velocity, less Ks, higher ERA nothing right now stands out to give a GM reason to offer a high-end prospect for Gallardo. All low-ball offers currently waiting for Melvin to crack. The ball isn't in our court with Gallardo anymore.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

I've never felt that Gallardo was better than a #3 on a good team. He just has no consistency to speak of.

[LouisEly]

For some reason, Gallardo has lost velocity this year. Maybe it's the World Baseball Classic, maybe it's something else.

Booze?

[nate82]

The more I think about this the more I see a Dan Haren type trade. The Dbacks in 2010 were about in the same situation as the Brewers are in now going nowhere really. The Dbacks got Corbin, Saunders, and Rodriguez when they traded Haren to the Angels. I think something similar to this is what the Brewers are going to receive in return. I don't really like the idea of getting a veteran starter in return but this might be the best the Brewers will receive for Gallardo.

 

The Dodgers would be a team that would make the most sense here for this type of a trade and their record really wouldn't matter as Gallardo would be around for more than 1-year. Capuano, Zach Lee, and Chris Reed would be comparable players to what the Dbacks received in the Haren trade.

[brewcrewdue80]

That's great.

What's not great though are the Dodgers Chances of making the Playoffs. 7.5 back today. in 1 month? I think you gotta be 7back or less on a trade deadline deal trading for the Playoffs. Outside of 10games you should be trading for the future. That in between, you're probably picking a piece/ Utility bat/RP for the stretch if the team can maybe make a run and get lucky others ahead falter.

All teams in that division are competitive, San Diego isn't a push over anymore, and Colorado offensively alone kills teams. Then the Giants/Diamondbacks are leading the way. If Kemp was actually playing 2011 numbers then yeah, I wouldn't count the Dodgers out 10 games back. But he's nowhere near them. It'd be like Braun batting .260 with projected 18HRs 75rbi on the season and what impact you believe that does to our team. That's the impact Kemp's season is having and now he's on the DL. Dodgers are in trouble, and I'm thinking they will luck themselves in to being sellers this year. Which is scary to think with their payroll how good they can get their Minors plus freedom of cash in the offseason.

Good work on putting together the trade scenario likely for Gallardo from LAD. It's just not to be with where both teams reside.

[crossface21]

It only takes one team that thinks they are *just* that far away to making the playoffs to drive the price up on a player like Gallardo. During the season is when you trade pitching, the off-season is when you trade hitting. I'd say the Brewers could come away with a pretty nice package if they include Gallardo with Aoki/Hart/Ramirez because of the nature of the beast when teams get desperate for a veteran or decent starting pitcher at the trade deadline.

[nate82]

That's great.

What's not great though are the Dodgers Chances of making the Playoffs. 7.5 back today. in 1 month? I think you gotta be 7back or less on a trade deadline deal trading for the Playoffs. Outside of 10games you should be trading for the future. That in between, you're probably picking a piece/ Utility bat/RP for the stretch if the team can maybe make a run and get lucky others ahead falter.

All teams in that division are competitive, San Diego isn't a push over anymore, and Colorado offensively alone kills teams. Then the Giants/Diamondbacks are leading the way. If Kemp was actually playing 2011 numbers then yeah, I wouldn't count the Dodgers out 10 games back. But he's nowhere near them. It'd be like Braun batting .260 with projected 18HRs 75rbi on the season and what impact you believe that does to our team. That's the impact Kemp's season is having and now he's on the DL. Dodgers are in trouble, and I'm thinking they will luck themselves in to being sellers this year. Which is scary to think with their payroll how good they can get their Minors plus freedom of cash in the offseason.

Good work on putting together the trade scenario likely for Gallardo from LAD. It's just not to be with where both teams reside.

 

I am not sure why you are being short sighted in just looking at playoff contenders. The Dodgers would have Gallardo for two more seasons so it doesn't really matter if they are going to be making the playoffs this year or not as Gallardo wouldn't be a half year rental. If the Dodgers are interested in Cliff Lee there is no reason they would not be interested in Gallardo also. Again you are being very short sighted at looking at playoff contenders.

[brewcrewdue80]

That's great.

What's not great though are the Dodgers Chances of making the Playoffs. 7.5 back today. in 1 month? I think you gotta be 7back or less on a trade deadline deal trading for the Playoffs. Outside of 10games you should be trading for the future. That in between, you're probably picking a piece/ Utility bat/RP for the stretch if the team can maybe make a run and get lucky others ahead falter.

All teams in that division are competitive, San Diego isn't a push over anymore, and Colorado offensively alone kills teams. Then the Giants/Diamondbacks are leading the way. If Kemp was actually playing 2011 numbers then yeah, I wouldn't count the Dodgers out 10 games back. But he's nowhere near them. It'd be like Braun batting .260 with projected 18HRs 75rbi on the season and what impact you believe that does to our team. That's the impact Kemp's season is having and now he's on the DL. Dodgers are in trouble, and I'm thinking they will luck themselves in to being sellers this year. Which is scary to think with their payroll how good they can get their Minors plus freedom of cash in the offseason.

Good work on putting together the trade scenario likely for Gallardo from LAD. It's just not to be with where both teams reside.

 

I am not sure why you are being short sighted in just looking at playoff contenders. The Dodgers would have Gallardo for two more seasons so it doesn't really matter if they are going to be making the playoffs this year or not as Gallardo wouldn't be a half year rental. If the Dodgers are interested in Cliff Lee there is no reason they would not be interested in Gallardo also. Again you are being very short sighted at looking at playoff contenders.

 

Being a Playoff contender makes you a buyer at deadline. Dodgers would be a seller is what I'm getting at.

Considering how Gallardo has performed thus far, it makes no sense for the Dodgers to grab him at the Deadline. Now, offseason it does and those 2years you're mentioning makes sense. As well as it making sense if Gallardo is showing a turnaround as the season progressed. It's not being short-sighted. I guess when I read this topic, I'm looking at the time to trade Gallardo meaning at this year's deadline.

[monty57]

bcd80, I agree with the comment "Considering how Gallardo has performed thus far, it makes no sense for the Dodgers to grab him at the Deadline." Unless Gallardo finds his lost velocity, I don't see anyone giving up a valuable package of prospects for him. That loss in velocity should scare off many would-be suitors.

 

However, if he is shopped, I wouldn't rule out the Dodgers. Normally, I think you're correct that it doesn't make sense for a team who is out of contention to trade for a player. I don't think conventional logic applies to the new Dodgers' ownership. It seems that they're trying to prove that they're "L.A." and can outspend anyone and get whatever they want. I don't know that it makes sense for the Dodgers to trade for Gallardo (or anyone), but I wouldn't rule them out.

 

In the grand scheme, it would just make things so much better for the Brewers if Gallardo would find his velocity and start looking like he's been throughout his career. If he does, the package we could receive by trading him could go a long way to turning things around and making the Brewers relevant again in the not-too-distant future. If the loss in velocity is permanent (which would seem to mean some sort of injury, because he's too young to lose that velocity otherwise), then we're stuck with an expensive back-of-the-rotation starter for the next couple of years.

 

Really, things couldn't be going much worse for the Brewers. The team is playing worse than anyone expected, and most of the guys who we potentially would think of trading for something of value (Gallardo, Hart, Ramirez) all have some issue that is seriously hindering their trade value.

[nate82]

We can knock the Orioles out of the running for Gallardo as they are one of the 10 teams on his no trade list.

 

Source at about the 40 second mark.

 

Not like this is a surprise as the Orioles are unwilling to trade any of their top two prime pieces so it looks like they were out of it anyway.

[Bnowell4evr]

The Orioles are a team that might be a match for Kyle Lohse.

[brewcrewdue80]

If Lohse was on a 2year contract I'd believe that but that 3rd year just not going to look all to appealing to Baltimore. They also have a number of guys in Arb that they will either have to cut bait on or move in the bullpen. Guys like Arrieta, Matusz, Tillman, and Gonzalez. My guess is they would send us one of them in the trade for Lohse plus a prospect but not to be anyone amazing. I think Nate has been an Arrieta fan for awhile so I'm sure that would be doable for him.

I don't know if that whole throw another piece out there may work to maybe get Schoop who has 3b experience just playing 2b to reach the team sooner. It does get ugly in their bullpen after Jim Johnson,Darren O'Day, and TJ McFarland, and Tommy Hunter.