Time to trade Gallardo?

[TooLiveBrew]

I understand dismissing that sample, but I used it because imo Gamel was looking good at the plate from PA to PA (results aside). I won't pretend he's done enough to convince his doubters, but for the majority of his tiny amount of PAs last season (53 of 75), he was actually solid and produced in line with what I'd expect in terms of slash line.

[thebruce44]

So I assume everyone in favor of putting Gallardo on the open market wouldn't mind shopping Braun as well?

 

Braun is an every day player with less injury risk and should be expected to be about twice as valuable as Yo for the same price over the next 2 years.

 

So no, I'm not in favor of shopping Braun.

[monty57]

Braun is also in the class of players that you really can't put a trade value on. You'd almost need a Herschel Walker-type trade to make it worth it for the Brewers to trade him, and no team is going to be willing to do that.

 

Gallardo is good, but nowhere close to Braun's league. He could get a lot in trade, but he's not going to end up in the Hall of Fame. I don't think it's time to trade Gallardo, because we don't have five other pitchers to push him to the trade block. Assuming we don't "gut the farm" to acquire another two-year rental, we might have enough young, cheap talent to allow us to trade Gallardo, but we're not there yet.

 

It will be great if we can get in a position where we trade someone like Gallardo because we have an excess of good, young, inexpensive, team-controlled pitching. Imagine the return we'd get, and how that could shore up other holes and add to the MLB ready depth. If we don't make a "win now" trade this offseason, we could be in this position within a year or two.

[nate82]

 

There's a difference between a player like Gallardo and a player like Hart, in fact it's a wide gulf because of position, contract status, age, and cost relative to production. I wouldn't trade Gallardo today, but if he's replaceable going into his last option year I would consider it. The Rays have done this repeatedly with Jackson, Garza, Kazmir, and possibly Shields this coming off-season. If you're reasonably sure the next man up is going to be more productive than the player you have what's wrong with trading a player before his contract is up? In fact even if the replacement player would be slightly below the production of the player traded, but one of the players acquired makes you much better at a different position the trade is a very idea from a value standpoint.

 

Would you trade Gallardo for Wil Myers? The Royals are looking to add a pitcher like Shields or Lester and would trade Myers for either of them. I think I would do it though it would be a little tough if it was just Myers for Gallardo.

 

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2012/11/royals-interested-in-shields-lester.html

[Eye Black]

Would you trade Gallardo for Wil Myers?

I would say no. I am as big of a prospect advocate as anyone, but I think Gallardo is too valuable to trade for an OF prospect. Even if Wil Myers does realize something close to his ceiling, it probably isn't worth giving up on a #2 caliber starting pitcher in his prime (26 yrs old) that has pitched 801 innings over the last four seasons and still has two years and an additional team option year left on his contract.

[Kelbysdaddy]

i dont think i'd trade gallardo for myers but i definatly wouldnt trade myers for shields or lester.

[Bnowell4evr]

I wouldn't consider that move unless we decided to go into all out rebuilding mode. I just can't see how you would give up your best SP on a team that is a contender for a prospect who would be blocked. To make room for Myers you would have to make other trades and soon or later you've killed any chance you have of competing this year.

[brewcrewdue80]

I'm new here. Trade Gallardo? Really? So hey let's make it a point to not win as an organization! Trade for prospects, trade for prospects, Gallardo is the "Real Deal" I'd extend his contract another 5years if he'd take 14mil per today. He is a near pitchers equivalent to Braun. Brewers were fortunate to lock Braun up. I just don't get this way of thinking? I fully expect Gallardo to live out his Brewers contract. And upon a QO if he doesn't take it Brewers get a draft pick. Only a trade deadline deal like Grienke's the year Gallardo may become a FA can trading Gallardo be discussed honestly.

The Brewers have a fan base, this isn't like Tampa Bay where trading away a pitcher under control for multiple years for prospects to save a few million makes sense. To be honest, I was more comfortable watching Gallardo on the mound vs Grienke. To trade him away? Just seems wrong. He's young, proven 3 more years at minimum for him I think is a whole lot better than taking on a prospect and hoping he's worth losing Gallardos service for 5/6years of said prospect.

I get Weeks, Aram, Hart, Gomez trade thoughts they all offer you something you don't like as a fan. Gallardo? He's everything you can ask in a pitcher. The only problem is the pitch count aspect. But you know what? A lot of that is because he is that Damn good a pitcher! Look at Strasburg, he too won't pass the 6inning often, batter's just stand there holding their bat simply because they can't feel the timing to their pitches/locate it. You can look all through the pitchers in Brewers organization to trade away, Gallardo is untouchable! Man, wow did the fans suggesting this have no faith in what the Brewers have currently.

[StearnsFTW]

So I assume everyone in favor of putting Gallardo on the open market wouldn't mind shopping Braun as well?

 

I wouldn't be actively shopping Braun, but everyone's available. Always. At least in my world.

 

The comparison is not apt anyway, Braun is way more valuable than Gallardo for the reasons stated before me.

[nate82]

With Boston having a hot start I would look into trading Gallardo to Boston. Definitely would insist on Barnes but it looks like the Red Sox will not trade Bogaerts. Barnes, Cecchini, and Workman would be a decent haul from the Red Sox.

 

I am really concerned about Gallardo and to me he seems to be declining rather rapidly. Take last year for example Gallardo averaged just over 6 IP per start and never made it past the 8th inning last year. Gallardo is no longer a #1 and is looking more like a #2 or 3 type of a pitcher.

[markedman5]

I'm not sure he ever was a #1

[vegasbrewcrew1993]

Only way I would trade gallardo is if we get a huge return. I'm talking big time pitching prospects. We have nothing behind gallardo. Willy is too young and not a sure thing. No one else is a #1. Gallardo may not be a pure #1, but he's still a damn good pitcher. To me he's a low 1 very high 2 kind of pitcher. He's in the category of #1's that come after the kershaw's and verlander's. this trade talk always happens in April. He will settle down like he always does. Who cares if goes 6 innings instead of 7. As long as posts a good era and whip all is good.

[nate82]

Only way I would trade gallardo is if we get a huge return. I'm talking big time pitching prospects. We have nothing behind gallardo. Willy is too young and not a sure thing. No one else is a #1. Gallardo may not be a pure #1, but he's still a damn good pitcher. To me he's a low 1 very high 2 kind of pitcher. He's in the category of #1's that come after the kershaw's and verlander's. this trade talk always happens in April. He will settle down like he always does. Who cares if goes 6 innings instead of 7. As long as posts a good era and whip all is good.

 

Gallardo not going at least 7 is bad as it puts more pressure on the bullpen. Plus Gallardo is going to want to be paid like a #1 starter and someone will pay him that in FA. I just hope it is not the Brewers Barnes is a future #1 pitcher. Next year the Brewers will be in the same spot as they are this year. Losing Gallardo wouldn't change all that much next year for the Brewers. 2015-2019 would be the next window and Gallardo wouldn't be apart of those teams. It would be better for the Brewers to trade Gallardo than to keep him on this team.

[TURBO]

During the course of a full season, it is a big deal between going 6 or 7 innings.

 

Taxing the bullpen is almost never a good idea, especially with a bullpen like ours.

 

I'm not saying he has t go 7 innings every time out, but in the last 3 seasons, how many times has he gone 7+ innings? It would be nice to see a few 7 inning games, and throw in a few 8 inning games for good measure. We just rarely see that out of Gallardo, and a true ace needs to be able to last deeper into games more than 3 or 4 times per season.

[Raw Biz]

I will echo the others about how going 7 vs. 6 innings is a big difference. And while ERA and WHIP are useful, that shouldn't be all you're looking at. I'd also look at K/BB, K/9, xFIP, etc.

[monty57]

Nothing is going to happen for at least two months, and whether it seems to make sense or not, we aren't going to trade Gallardo unless we're well out of the race. If that is the case, then Gallardo is probably to most sensible player to shop, since Hart is the only meaningful player who will be a FA at the end of the year, and he won't have much value coming off two knee surgeries in two years.

 

It's unlike the Brewers to trade a guy before his final year, but given the right scenario this season, it could make a lot of sense to shop Gallardo.

[vegasbrewcrew1993]

era and whip arent the only stats, but they are arguably the most important. a good whip tells me he keeps the bases clean. a good era tells he keeps the scoreboard clean. we can assume that gallardo for the rest of his career is going to be that 3.3 to 3.8 era guy. he will have 200 strikeouts a year. you don't trade away that kind of productivity just because he can't go 7 or 8 most of the time. those relievers aren't sissys. those guys pitch at least 2 innings. the era of pitch counts has turned these guys into softies.

[monty57]

we can assume that gallardo for the rest of his career is going to be that 3.3 to 3.8 era guy.

 

I don't know that you can assume that. It's likely he'll be good through 2014, which is the end of his contract with the Brewers, but you can't guarantee it. Beyond 2014, we can't trade him, because he's not "Brewer property," so the question is whether 1.5 years of Gallardo at a salary of $8MM this year and $11.5MM next year is worth more or less than what you could get in trade. The obvious missing variable is what we could get in trade. I'd trade him if we're out of it this year, and we could get a huge return for him.

 

you don't trade away that kind of productivity just because he can't go 7 or 8 most of the time.

 

No, not solely because he "can't go 7 or 8 most of the time," but that is a mark against him. There are other good pitchers out there, and there are guys currently in the minors who will be as good or better than Gallardo. Would you trade him for a player who is younger, cheaper and better than him?

 

I'm not banging on the table shouting "TRADE HIM," but I think you always have to be open to the option of trading someone if the right situation arises. It is entirely possible that a team in playoff contention could offer a package based around several top prospects. We would then be trading away 1.5 years of Gallardo for six years each from multiple "high upside" players and we would save around $15MM.

 

There are all kinds of risk. There would be risk in going for potential in the prospects vs "proven" in Gallardo, but you also take a risk by holding onto Gallardo in that the players you aren't trading for could end up being really good, and you could end up losing Gallardo for nothing to free agency after 2014. It is also quite possible that we could be better as soon as next year if we get several pre-arby guys playing key roles, with some extra money to spend to fill in holes elsewhere. It's also possible that we wouldn't... what risk are you willing to take?

 

I don't believe there is much chance Gallardo will be traded this year, because that's not how the Brewers under Melvin/Attanasio operate. Of course, looking at the current roster, I don't think anyone of note will be traded for anything of value, even if we're well out of the race. I think there's a much greater chance that we trade away prospects for a veteran or simply stand pat.

[logan82]

We have an option on Gallardo for 2015. I would be shocked if that doesn't get picked up.

[vegasbrewcrew1993]

@monty

 

what do you think we could get in return for gallardo? i don't think that there is anyone in the minors that projects to be as good as gallardo. from what i have heard all we have is a bunch of 2's and 3's in the system. gallardo may not be a kershaw, but he's still a #1 type of pitcher. i agree that it doesn't hurt to ask around. not even ryan braun is untouchable. if you can get a ridiculous deal for braun you have to consider it. the brewers aren't the yankees, so this is stuff that the team has to consider. i personally wouldn't trade him unless the return was really really good. it would have to be a prospect that is ready to go.

[monty57]

We have an option on Gallardo for 2015. I would be shocked if that doesn't get picked up.

 

I thought that was the case, but Cot's said "FA." If there is an option, then barring injury, it's pretty likely it would get exercised, and it would also up the value if we were to try to trade him.

 

Vegasbrew, I don't know what we'd get, but 1.5 (or 2.5 with option) years of Gallardo would be worth a lot more than half a year of Greinke. I'd think it'd start with a couple of top 50 prospects, including an MLB ready AAA starting pitcher.

 

That does limit the potential trade partners pretty substantially. If they're in the playoff hunt, they're not trading MLB pieces, so they'd need to be a playoff team with top talent in the minors. Boston would be a fit, with Bogaerts (SS), Bradley (OF), Barnes (RHP) and Webster (RHP) all in Baseball America's Top 50. Arizona has Skaggs (LHP), Bradley (RHP), Eaton (OF) and Davidson (3B). I'll assume PIT, CIN and StL wouldn't work because of the inter-division thing, but they've got nice prospects. Washington has Rendon (3B), Giolito (RHP), Goodwin (OF).

 

I don't know what it would take, but a package centered around Bogaerts (move either him or Segura to 2B) and Barnes or Webster with Boston, or Skaggs and Bradley from Arizona would certainly be worth looking into.

 

Again, I don't think it's going to happen. (A) The Brewers should be close enough in the race that they won't sell (B) Melvin and Attanasio don't have a history of trading away guys prior to their last year of control © The Brewers are in a continuous "win now" mode, and relying on rookies (even top 10 prospects) to be at the top of the rotation doesn't fit the bill, and (D) it may be hard to find a team willing to give up as much talent as the Brewers would require for Gallardo.

 

But it is kind of fun to think about how the team could look in the future if they did make the trade and got some top-flight MLB ready prospects.

[markedman5]

96 pitches tonight and not yet through the 4th inning......his mechanics are just awful...

[TooLiveBrew]

We have an option on Gallardo for 2015. I would be shocked if that doesn't get picked up.

I thought that was the case, but Cot's said "FA." If there is an option, then barring injury, it's pretty likely it would get exercised, and it would also up the value if we were to try to trade him.

Here is the Cot's page for the Brewers. They list 2015 as a team option season.

 

Yovani Gallardo rhp

5 years/$30.1M (2010-14), plus 2015 club option

 

• signed extension 4/8/10, replacing 1 year/$0.45M deal for 2010 renewed 3/4/10
  
• $1.25M signing bonus ($0.5M upon approval by MLB, $0.5M on 7/15/10, $0.25M on 11/15/10)
  
• 10: $0.5M, 11: $3.25M, 12: $5.5M, 13: $7.75M, 14: $11.25M, 15: $13M club option ($0.6M buyout)
  
• Gallardo may void option by earning 6 points based on 2010-14 Cy Young vote (5 points for 1st place, 3 points for 2nd place, 1 point for 3rd place)
  
• full no-trade clause for 2010-12 seasons, may block deals to 10 clubs thereafter

[DHonks]

I would consider trading Gallardo in July or the offseason if the package is right. I really like having him, and would love to extend him. But I think back to the early '00's when I was in college in the Bay Area. The A's lost or traded Hudson, Zito, Mulder, and Harang, yet they continued to be strong. Sometimes we need to remember that players are assets and can be moved if the better deal comes along. It would take a massive deal for me to trade Yo, but I could see Houston, Texas, San Diego, LA, LA, Boston, NY etc all getting into a bidding war for him.

[Austin Tatious]

Haudricourt or someone posted his average velocity by year and he's dropped off precipitously considering he's young. The really good pitchers compensate for this phenomenon by using their experience to pitch smarter. Let's hope Yo can adjust better than what we have seen so far.