Time to trade Gallardo?

[HiAndTight]

http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2012/07/31/report-diamondbacks-aiming-for-premier-starting-pitcher/

 

This story from today says the Diamondbacks might be considering Gallardo, and in turn giving up Justin Upton and one arm from a trio of Trevor Bauer, Tyler Skaggs and Archie Bradley. Or not including Upton but trading 2 of those 3 pitchers. I like Gallardo but if I'm Melvin, I am considering those deals, if they are even real.

 

Gallardo is a great pitcher, but to me he seems to have hit his ceiling, I haven't seen a whole lot of improvement from him the last year or two. He can be dominant, but he also still has a tendency to rack up high pitch counts pretty early in games, and more often than I'd like goes out and throws a 5 inning, 6 earned run clunker.

 

This sounds more like a deal that would be done in the off season than right now.

 

 

 

Jesus...I didn't read far enough. Why on Earth would the D-backs even consider giving up Bauer, Skaggs and Bradley PLUS Upton(two of the pitchers)?

 

I wouldn't trade Bauer for Gallardo, must less PLUS another elite arm, PLUS Justin Upton. This sounds like a trade suggestion that Yankee's fans make on their board about trading for Ryan Braun.

[Invader3K]

Exactly. I think someone got a whiff of a vague rumor and started speculating wildly. This idea makes no sense. Upton makes no sense for the Brewers even if they were contending right now.

[CheezWizHed]

I didn't read far enough. Why on Earth would the D-backs even consider giving up Bauer, Skaggs and Bradley PLUS Upton(two of the pitchers)?

 

Now you didn't read WELL enough.

 

It was ONE of (Bauer, Skaggs and Bradley) plus Upton OR two of the three (Bauer, Skaggs and Bradley). Not all 4 players.

[reillymcshane]

http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2012/07/31/report-diamondbacks-aiming-for-premier-starting-pitcher/

 

This story from today says the Diamondbacks might be considering Gallardo, and in turn giving up Justin Upton and one arm from a trio of Trevor Bauer, Tyler Skaggs and Archie Bradley. Or not including Upton but trading 2 of those 3 pitchers. I like Gallardo but if I'm Melvin, I am considering those deals, if they are even real.

 

Gallardo is a great pitcher, but to me he seems to have hit his ceiling, I haven't seen a whole lot of improvement from him the last year or two. He can be dominant, but he also still has a tendency to rack up high pitch counts pretty early in games, and more often than I'd like goes out and throws a 5 inning, 6 earned run clunker.

 

This sounds more like a deal that would be done in the off season than right now.

 

 

 

Jesus...I didn't read far enough. Why on Earth would the D-backs even consider giving up Bauer, Skaggs and Bradley PLUS Upton(two of the pitchers)?

 

I wouldn't trade Bauer for Gallardo, must less PLUS another elite arm, PLUS Justin Upton. This sounds like a trade suggestion that Yankee's fans make on their board about trading for Ryan Braun.

 

One of my favorite 'fan' trades was someone submitted to Keith Law at ESPN a question before last year about trading Tommy Hanson (a fine pitcher at least) for Fielder, Braun and Weeks. They guy submitted the question 2-3 times during a chat - and Law finally just said something like 'are you insane'.

 

Homerism is not limited to NY. We all do it.

[reillymcshane]

I only trade Gallardo if you get a package of near ready players, including at least one pitcher.

 

I don't think anyone will offer that, but if it comes around, the team should listen.

 

Yo is a nice pitcher - not great - but very good. With our rotation so thin, we need him the next few years. So you don't deal him unless the offer is exceptional.

[sheetskout]

Gallardo is on pace to eclipse 200K's for the 4th straight year with a respectable ERA under a pretty friendly contract. Yo is more than a "nice" pitcher.

[HiAndTight]

I didn't read far enough. Why on Earth would the D-backs even consider giving up Bauer, Skaggs and Bradley PLUS Upton(two of the pitchers)?

 

Now you didn't read WELL enough.

 

It was ONE of (Bauer, Skaggs and Bradley) plus Upton OR two of the three (Bauer, Skaggs and Bradley). Not all 4 players.

 

 

I both mis-read and then mis-spoke.

 

I misread that they'd give up two of their pitching prospects AND Justin Upton, mis-spoke by suggesting we'd get all 4. I'm just surprised they'd make all 4 of those guys available, especially Bauer. And I'd take either deal in a heartbeat. Not as much Bauer and Upton, but I still think that's a terrible move for the D-backs, makes absolutely no sense for them. You could have the core of an elite starting staff in a couple short years, plus Wade Miley is having a helluva rookie season. Throw in the #9 and #13 overall prospects to start the season who are both ready as Bauer is already up and Skaggs is dominating at the upper levels despite playing in big time pitchers parks with the #25 prospect coming in a few years time, never mind they're 21, 21 and 19 and all strikeout, power arms, two of whom are lefties. What would possess you to trade pitchers like that? I'd much rather move Upton to the highest bidder this off-season and see what position prospects I can bring back after making a go at re-signing Stephen Drew to a 4 year 28 million dollar deal now that he's struggled with injury and his value has gone down. Lot "safer," route than giving up what could be two aces. Legit aces for 3 years in which you're not very likely to win anyway for Gallardo.

 

 

If we went into next year with a lineup of Weeks-2B/Lucroy-C/Braun-LF/Upton-RF/Aram-3B/Hart-1B/Segura-SS that's one helluva lineup. I think you could plug Bauer in there next season. If you really wanted to go for it, and if Greinke's struggles continued in LA, sign him to the deal you offered and perhaps bring in a guy who nobody seems to want long term despite being a great value like Edwin Jackson to a 3 year 33 million dollar deal, you could throw out Greinke/Jackson/Bauer/Fiers and then whoever of about 5-6 options makes the rotation. Rogers, Peralta, Thornburg, Narveson, Estrada.

 

You'd be pretty close to maxed out there financially IMO, but you could work on the BP from in house. I think AX bounces back next year. K-Rod is worth about 3-4 million on name right now alone. I'd let him walk unless it was for maybe 2.5 as I think his lack of success was also largely just luck and sample size. Maybe use a couple guys out of the pen, maybe Hellweg or Pena get off to good starts, whoever doesn't make the rotation, the waiver wire...lots of ways to build a BP.

 

 

 

All far fetched....of course so is the D-backs giving up either 2 top 20 pitching prospects or 1 top 20 pitching prospect(or top 5-10 pitching prospect) and Justin Upton for Gallardo.

[adambr2]

Here is why this actually makes some sense to me now:

 

- Gallardo is worth a LOT. Much more than we got for Greinke at the deadline. He's an ace pitcher with 2 years left on his deal. If you're looking to fill the gaps in on this team with some talent, Gallardo is the piece to make that happen.

 

- Fiers, Peralta, Estrada, Rogers, and Thornburg are all possible starters next year. And then there are more guys coming to follow them. And who knows what they may do in free agency. Finally, we have more SP talent than room. Clearly if you clear room, trading the one who is worth the most and offers the most in salary relief (I wouldn't trade him solely for that purpose, but it's worth mentioning) isn't a bad idea.

[HiAndTight]

Here is why this actually makes some sense to me now:

 

- Gallardo is worth a LOT. Much more than we got for Greinke at the deadline. He's an ace pitcher with 2 years left on his deal. If you're looking to fill the gaps in on this team with some talent, Gallardo is the piece to make that happen.

 

- Fiers, Peralta, Estrada, Rogers, and Thornburg are all possible starters next year. And then there are more guys coming to follow them. And who knows what they may do in free agency. Finally, we have more SP talent than room. Clearly if you clear room, trading the one who is worth the most and offers the most in salary relief (I wouldn't trade him solely for that purpose, but it's worth mentioning) isn't a bad idea.

 

Yeah, you know where I stand on the Brewers possible payroll potential, so I won't get into the financial aspects of it.

 

But the Brewers finish makes this decision that much tougher. Yo looked great down the stretch. But to me, that's WHY you trade him. All of us want to see a winner, and after a great finish to the year, a full lineup that looks to be set in place next year for next year, was the best in the NL this year and should be even better next year with Segura with a good chunk of time under his belt. Weeks should/hopefully will hit better than a .150 average the first half the season, and the Aoki/Hart/Gomez trio should be in place from the start. I'd say we should expect regression from Braun, but I'm not sure about even that anymore.

 

So even though I was originally in favor of such a move, how do you do that to Brewers fans? Do they understand how good we COULD look very soon if we where to get two of Arizona's pitchers like Skaags/Bauer/Bradley? If that trade was ever really on the table?

 

But the risk/reward in selling players high is obviously a lot more important if the players are valuable players. Selling a guy like Gomez I don't think is worth the risk that he's actually as good as he's shown, if not better for the reward of a solid prospect. The risk with Gallardo is you almost kill your chances next year, but it's also that he's a starting pitcher right now in his prime, throws 200 innings a year, strikes out 200 guys every year and the bigger risk is injury or a poor season. The reward is a potential franchise changing haul in return.

 

It's a PR nightmare though as if you trade him, I see absolutely no logical reason not to trade Hart, Aram and Gomez. And you basically go into the season without any hope, coming off a season that saw Yo anchor a rotation that as it brought up pitchers really put together an incredible run.

 

If we finished the season with a .500 finish the last 6 weeks, we'd be fine, but as hot as we've been, that makes it much tougher to move Yo now...again, as logical as it would make sense.

 

BUT AGAIN....if the Arizona deal was ever or still IS on the table, two of Skaags, Bauer and Bradley, or one of those three plus Upton, you still have to make that deal IMO.

 

The last 6 weeks have been fun as hell, but I don't know if it's been detrimental in the long run. At our low point, we where looking at a top 6-7 pick possibly, and a rebuilding process in the off-season. Even Doug Melvin has publicly said that the end of this season has changed his mind on where this team is and their ability to compete next year. Spending money is fine. I think they can afford to spend more than most others on this board thinks right now and especially in the future.

 

But just spending isn't going to build a lasting team. They're in a position where they could move Aram and Hart for several VERY valuable young prospects. Aoki's value is harder to determine, but if teams think this years production is what they can expect, I don't see that big of a gap between he and Bourn, so he could have some big time value. Gomez has boras as an agent, so that drastically changes things. I'd love a 3 year 15 million dollar deal for Gomez and would even go 3 years and 18 million. But I suspect that Boras is looking for something absurd because of this ONE year(though I see his point, limitless potential and he's still just 26 and starting to realize it).

 

But with the finish to our season, it's almost like a spotlight has been put on some of our older players like Hart, Aram even Aoki who is 30 and then possibly Gomez if you can't work out a reasonable extension and even then you have to decide if it's worth it with Schafer coming up right behind him as a great defender and a guy who looks to have an exceptional approach and more power than I think most people think.

 

We could bring back a cache of prospects if we where to trade Aram, Hart, Gomez, Aoki(maybe) and specifically Gallardo...to the point where we might have one of the top 2-3 farm systems in baseball.

 

But, again, as Melvin said during a recent broadcast, this last season run does make the Brewers re-think the potential this team has. Which kinda sucks. I'd love to have 7-8 young budding B+ type prospects, but I think it's more likely they'll end up simply looking to push it further and try and contend next year.

 

 

To me that means;

-Looking for a frontline starting pitcher 1st(Greinke, Peavy/Haren if options are declined) and a power arm second(Jackson).

-Bullpen help. Who knows where this will come from or how it'll end up.

-Re-sign Hart for an extra three years for a Ramirez type contract.

 

And with relatively limited obligations for next year, I could see them doing all three pretty easily.

 

Sadly they'll also likely trade Gamel.

[reillymcshane]

Here is why this actually makes some sense to me now:

 

- Gallardo is worth a LOT. Much more than we got for Greinke at the deadline. He's an ace pitcher with 2 years left on his deal. If you're looking to fill the gaps in on this team with some talent, Gallardo is the piece to make that happen.

As a note, the Brewers control Gallardo for 3 more years. They hold a $13 million option for 2015.

[DHonks]

Just keep in mind that all of the pitchers mentioned in this deal may not ever amount to a Kyle Peterson career. That's trading 3 relatively cheap all-star caliber years for a whole lot of question-marks.

[HiAndTight]

Just keep in mind that all of the pitchers mentioned in this deal may not ever amount to a Kyle Peterson career. That's trading 3 relatively cheap all-star caliber years for a whole lot of question-marks.

 

Of course that's always on top of your mind when talking about pitching prospects.

 

But you're also assuming you're trading 3 all star years of Gallardo. There are also a whole lot of pitchers who've had great starts to their career and had that first injury that seemingly leads to several others.

 

Remember Brandon Webb? Especially sad case as he was on the verge of signing a monster of a contract and was arguably the best pitcher in the NL for a 3 year stretch. Harden, Sheets as well as a host of others. Webb and Sheets in particular didn't have injury issues in their first several years either.

 

But I don't think you can make a decision like this by looking back on the prospects that have failed. That's always implied. But it's rare that a future ace comes out of nowhere. They're almost always guys that are identified in the minors as elite arms. There are always guys like Santana, Webb, etc...but more often it's guys like Price, Moore, Peavy, Verlander and so on.

 

Which is why I think the proposed or rumored trade of two of the three prospects is a smarter way to go than one of them and Upton.

 

Then you have two chances of hitting on a guy, and if you hit on either guy and they hit their ceiling, you have an ace, and if you hit on both, which is entirely reasonable since they've progressed and dominated at the upper levels(far more than Petersen ever did, though I understand you could use a number of different examples).

 

So my point is you can't be afraid to trade for elite prospects because of past failures of top prospects.

 

 

In the end, any talk of a Gallardo trade likely starts and ends in message board land as I simply don't see the Brewers even seriously considering it, even for a Trevor Bauer and a Archie Bradley/Tyler Skaggs....which I'd vehemently disagree with.

[HiAndTight]

Here is why this actually makes some sense to me now:

 

- Gallardo is worth a LOT. Much more than we got for Greinke at the deadline. He's an ace pitcher with 2 years left on his deal. If you're looking to fill the gaps in on this team with some talent, Gallardo is the piece to make that happen.

As a note, the Brewers control Gallardo for 3 more years. They hold a $13 million option for 2015.

 

That is just another part of what makes Gallardo so attractive as a trade option and at the same time, why it'd take such an extraordinarily bold move to actually pull the trigger on something like that.

 

Just an aside, when do the Brewers look to add a couple years to that? Would it make any sense for the Brewers to eliminate the option year and add 3 years and 45 million to his current deal? Which would essentially be a two year 32 million dollar extension and thereby guaranteeing the option year since it's incredibly unlikely he's actually going to be traded? He's been remarkably consistent, and a deal like that would take him through his age 31 season?

 

It's one of those situations that if he keeps pitching like he has, you're just going to end up paying a ton more for him in an extension, and with all the new money coming into the league, that could be a ridiculously below average value.

[Roderick]

 

Just an aside, when do the Brewers look to add a couple years to that? Would it make any sense for the Brewers to eliminate the option year and add 3 years and 45 million to his current deal? Which would essentially be a two year 32 million dollar extension and thereby guaranteeing the option year since it's incredibly unlikely he's actually going to be traded?

 

Boy are you contradicting yourself. In the post right above this you talk about being worried to an injury to your starter even after a good 3 year run and now in this post you want to extend Gallardo to even more years than the three we already control.

[monty57]

As a general rule, I'd say there are three times when a team would look to trade someone like Gallardo:

 

1) In a rebuild in order to get some a lot of young talent back. Sort of like the Sexson trade. Thankfully the Brewers are a long way from this.

 

2) The team has young, cheap talent to replace the more expensive vet. I don't think the Brewers are quite there yet at SP. I hope they are in a year or so, but I don't think they're there yet.

 

3) You are completely blown away in a trade (like someone offers you Kazmir for Victor Zambrano). Since Gallardo is a top-of-the-rotation guy, it would take a lot to blow the team away. The downside risk is pretty high, so the upside has to be immense. Something like to aforementioned Bauer/Skaggs/Bradley could qualify, so if this were actually offered, Melvin would have to think about it.

 

Basically, I would be pretty surprised if Gallardo were moved this offseason. If the young arms continue to impress, I could see him moved mid-season if we're out of it or more likely next offseason. It is a good sign that we're much closer to scenario #2 above than scenario #1.

[sheetskout]

Revisiting this, I am still pretty sold that Gallardo is simply untouchable. The ONLY way I can see them dealing Gallardo this offseason is if a sure-fire, slam-dunk top prospect (and then some). And the prospect would have to fit our near and long-term plans.

 

Off the top of my head, it would take the prospect-level of Oscar Tavaras, Billy Hamilton, Wil Myers-types.

[TURBO]

Maybe we should trade all our good players for minor league guys. Then, when and if they get good, trade them for more minor league guys...

 

Just keep truning the roster over and over and over and over...

 

I don't like the metality of trading away your best guys. we have to keep someone, but everytime someone gets good, there are always those who think we NEED to trade them.

 

Just don't like it.

[TheCrew07]

Maybe we should trade all our good players for minor league guys. Then, when and if they get good, trade them for more minor league guys...

 

Just keep truning the roster over and over and over and over...

 

I don't like the metality of trading away your best guys. we have to keep someone, but everytime someone gets good, there are always those who think we NEED to trade them.

 

Roster turnover is inevitable whether you like it or not, players will need to be replaced for any number of reasons including but not limited to age, cost, and injury. That's a simple reality of professional sports, either we can continually pay market value and bemoan the inherent disparities or we can adapt and look to exploit systems.

 

It is entirely possible to trade a productive or to use your word "good" player and be a stronger team on the other side. I think it's funny that team turned things around as many young players made good on their opportunities and yet people are still clamoring for veteran SP acquisitions.

 

There's a difference between a player like Gallardo and a player like Hart, in fact it's a wide gulf because of position, contract status, age, and cost relative to production. I wouldn't trade Gallardo today, but if he's replaceable going into his last option year I would consider it. The Rays have done this repeatedly with Jackson, Garza, Kazmir, and possibly Shields this coming off-season. If you're reasonably sure the next man up is going to be more productive than the player you have what's wrong with trading a player before his contract is up? In fact even if the replacement player would be slightly below the production of the player traded, but one of the players acquired makes you much better at a different position the trade is a very idea from a value standpoint.

 

That's exactly what the team did by dumping Wolf and trading Greinke but picking up Segura, they became a better team. The Brewers were a better team after the trade because all of the young players who got subsequent opportunities held their own which will help propel us into 2013. Personally I would love to have enough impact pitching/players on hand to make those kind of moves every year. Out with the old, in with the new, and keep cycling fresh impact talent back into the farm system to keep train rolling.

 

I think some people hold onto way too tight to the players that we have and I don't like that.

[adambr2]

Agree on the inevitability of roster turnover. For some teams, its the only way they can do business and stay competitive. The Oakland A's aren't one win away from the ALCS without it.

 

I have no real strong emotional connection with our players -- sure there are some you grow to like, but at the end if the day I want the best thing for the short and long term interests of the team.

[DuWayne Steurer]

That's exactly what the team did by dumping Wolf and trading Greinke but picking up Segura, they became a better team. The Brewers were a better team after the trade because all of the young players who got subsequent opportunities held their own which will help propel us into 2013. Personally I would love to have enough impact pitching/players on hand to make those kind of moves every year. Out with the old, in with the new, and keep cycling fresh impact talent back into the farm system to keep train rolling.

 

I think some people hold onto way too tight to the players that we have and I don't like that.

 

 

That's fine, IF you have replacements waiting, and a strong system. Right now, position player-wise, the Brewers system is very lacking in impact players.

 

Look at Hart, whom the majority want to trade. The replacement options in-house are Gamel and Morris. Gamel is coming off an injury, and was unimpressive in the small sample before the injury. Morris is coming off one good season at AA, but wasn't highly touted before that. I'm not sold that Morris would be a positive contributor at the MLB level as a first baseman, offensively.

 

Aside from that, I see a lot of 'trade Ramirez', 'trade Weeks' etc, etc. Who's going to play? Green? Gennett? Farris? Those guys are going to be about 60-65 OPS+ type guys at the MLB level. I'm not advocating not trading guys when the time is right, but for position players, the Brewers don't have ready replacements.

 

At least on the pitching side of things, the immediate future looks a little brighter.

[TURBO]

 

At least on the pitching side of things, the immediate future looks a little brighter.

 

Bright enough to go into 2013 without "our" true and proven ace?

 

Trading Gallardo, the one guy we know what we have, just because his value is high is such a risk. Losing him means you go into the season without one, not a single one, proven guy. It could be an absolute disaster. I'm not sold completely on the fact that our young guns are going to fair as well as the sample size we got this year, especially not if we would have to count on 3 or 4 of them to be top of the rotation guys if we would have any chance to compete.

 

We have Gallardo locked up for a few more years at a decent price, and without him we don't have an ace. In my opinion, this is not the right time to trade him............PERIOD!

[TooLiveBrew]

That's exactly what the team did by dumping Wolf and trading Greinke but picking up Segura, they became a better team. The Brewers were a better team after the trade because all of the young players who got subsequent opportunities held their own which will help propel us into 2013. Personally I would love to have enough impact pitching/players on hand to make those kind of moves every year. Out with the old, in with the new, and keep cycling fresh impact talent back into the farm system to keep train rolling.

 

I think some people hold onto way too tight to the players that we have and I don't like that.

Look at Hart, whom the majority want to trade. The replacement options in-house are Gamel and Morris. Gamel is coming off an injury, and was unimpressive in the small sample before the injury.

From April 9th through April 23rd (14 of the 21 games he played in '12), Gamel posted a .805 OPS. He was looking good at the plate & turning in good PAs in my opinion. Small sample size meant that any 0-fers dragged his slash line down mightily. I also would say that those who wanted to see Hart dealt at the '12 trading deadline or pre-2013 were/are the minority here. I agree that Morris isn't ready yet, but he's also not very far away from being ready. 1B is a position of strength in the org. right now imo.

 

On Gallardo & the concept of selling high in general, it's the same old Proven™/Track Record™ argument that comes up every single time young players are discussed. I am genuinely a little surprised that we still go over this, given the success young players are having all across MLB. Look no further than our own Segura -- after posting a .417 OPS in his first 16 games, he put up a .759 over his final 29. .759 was Hanley Ramirez's OPS this season, and that ranked 6th among qualified MLB SS in 2012.

 

Young players need time to struggle & fail before they find their footing at the MLB level. Of course they're not proven if they never get a chance to prove themselves. If a team came calling with an excellent offer for Gallardo, I'd be all ears (as I would on any player). It's not like the idea here is to trade Gallardo for what Melvin got for Greinke. The concept is that a team would come calling with multiple top-flight prospects (& as good as Segura has been & will be, he was never regarded to be that kind of prospect). Even though the Brewers have Gallardo signed for three more seasons, there's no reason it'd be a bad idea to see if you can turn those three seasons into 6+ seasons of multiple top-tier young talents. And if you don't get a good offer, you keep him.

[Bnowell4evr]

So I assume everyone in favor of putting Gallardo on the open market wouldn't mind shopping Braun as well?

[TooLiveBrew]

So I assume everyone in favor of putting Gallardo on the open market wouldn't mind shopping Braun as well?

I wouldn't right now, as his contract has been a massive steal thus far, & he's under team control for the next nine seasons. He's who I want to build around, long-term. Three seasons of Gallardo is no doubt great to have, and if Yo would be interested in signing another extension the Brewers can sustain, I'd jump at the chance.

[DuWayne Steurer]

That's exactly what the team did by dumping Wolf and trading Greinke but picking up Segura, they became a better team. The Brewers were a better team after the trade because all of the young players who got subsequent opportunities held their own which will help propel us into 2013. Personally I would love to have enough impact pitching/players on hand to make those kind of moves every year. Out with the old, in with the new, and keep cycling fresh impact talent back into the farm system to keep train rolling.

 

I think some people hold onto way too tight to the players that we have and I don't like that.

Look at Hart, whom the majority want to trade. The replacement options in-house are Gamel and Morris. Gamel is coming off an injury, and was unimpressive in the small sample before the injury.

From April 9th through April 23rd (14 of the 21 games he played in '12), Gamel posted a .805 OPS. He was looking good at the plate & turning in good PAs in my opinion. Small sample size meant that any 0-fers dragged his slash line down mightily. I also would say that those who wanted to see Hart dealt at the '12 trading deadline or pre-2013 were/are the minority here. I agree that Morris isn't ready yet, but he's also not very far away from being ready. 1B is a position of strength in the org. right now imo..

 

Talk about cherry picking to make the numbers say what you want them to say........

 

I'm sure I could find a 14 day stretch for just about anyone in a given year that they had an .800 OPS in.

 

I'm not even saying "Don't trade Hart", but I'm not going to be shocked if Gamel can't put up a .750 OPS at this point. In fact, I'll go even further, and disagree that I thought his at bats just didn't impress me all that much.