Time to trade Gallardo?

[molitor fan]

Wow, Arizona has a bright future.....I call shenanigans on the Gallardo talk....I think the D backs need a guy like Hart way more than Gallardo personally....they have a chance to catch up to the Giants for sure, and maybe the Dodgers too depending on LA's moves today

[smbrewersfan15]

Well maybe the Brewers and Dbacks could do something like Upton, Bauer and Skaggs for Yo and Hart.

[molitor fan]

I still think that is over-valuing our guys by a fair piece.....By the time of our playoff series, Upton was about as feared a hitter as Braun and Skaggs could come in a rotation right now and be a competent 3 I think......

[torts]

Upton is not being traded, i dont know why its continued to be talked about. Gallardo has two more years under contract, if the brewers trade him they better get a ******** in return... that being said, they better not trade him.

[smbrewersfan15]

Yeah I'm sure you are right in overvaluing our guys. But I'd be happy to trade Gallardo for Bauer and Skaggs. Can't ever have too much SP right? I'm just starting to think that any trades that would happen have already and no one else is moving.

[sheetskout]

Well maybe the Brewers and Dbacks could do something like Upton, Bauer and Skaggs for Yo and Hart.

 

 

I'm not sure the D'Backs would give us Bauer and Skaggs alone for Yo and Hart much less with Upton. Those two will be under financial control for the next six years.

[Warning Track Power]

Well maybe the Brewers and Dbacks could do something like Upton, Bauer and Skaggs for Yo and Hart.

 

If this trade were to be offered to the Brewers I wouldn't let the D'Backs off the phone until it was finalized. Our SP would likely scuffle for the rest of the year but wow we would have some serious SP talent in the minors and close to MLB.

[fondybrewfan]

Forget Upton I would probably trade Gallardo and Hart straight up for Bauer & Skaggs. Control both of them for 6 years and the Crew could have serious money to spend this offseason on darn near anything they wanted. Not to mention they would also have a huge amount of trade chips. This is never going to happen and even though the Dbacks would control Gallardo for 2.5 years and Hart 1.5 years it still would be dumb to trade either Bauer or Skaggs.

[rluzinski]

I haven't read the whole thread but has anyone even attempted to estimate the net value of Gallardo's current contract? That is the first thing that we should in these kind of discussions. Not to beat it to death but great players are worth nothing in a trade if they are being paid like a great player.

 

What is he, a 3.75 ERA pitcher that we can pencil in for around 185 IP/year? Makes him worth around 3.0-3.5 WAR. Assuming $4.5 mil/win, that gives us a value of around $13.5 - $16 mil/year. Let's call it $14.5 mil for discussion purposes. Here is what the Brewers are on the hook for:

 

2013: $7.75 mil

2014: $11.25 mil

2015: $13 mil club option with $.6 mil buyout

 

That gives a net value of Gallardo's contract of something like $11.5 mil (assuming his option is picked up). Great contract for the Brewers.

[TooLiveBrew]

Not to beat it to death but great players are worth nothing in a trade if they are being paid like a great player.

 

I understand your point here, but I think that's an oversimplification.

[Kelbysdaddy]

could you imagine a rotation for years to come made of bauer/skaggs/thornburg/fiers/and estrada/jungmann/bradley/nelson. yeah, there is very little experience but the chance for greatness is huge.

[Oldcity]

Well maybe the Brewers and Dbacks could do something like Upton, Bauer and Skaggs for Yo and Hart.

 

 

I'm not sure the D'Backs would give us Bauer and Skaggs alone for Yo and Hart much less with Upton. Those two will be under financial control for the next six years.

 

I'd do Yo and Hart for Bauer and Skaggs and then take a vacation until the end of the season.

[torts]

Well maybe the Brewers and Dbacks could do something like Upton, Bauer and Skaggs for Yo and Hart.

 

 

I'm not sure the D'Backs would give us Bauer and Skaggs alone for Yo and Hart much less with Upton. Those two will be under financial control for the next six years.

 

I'd do Yo and Hart for Bauer and Skaggs and then take a vacation until the end of next season.

 

 

fixed

[rluzinski]

Not to beat it to death but great players are worth nothing in a trade if they are being paid like a great player.

 

I understand your point here, but I think that's an oversimplification.

 

It's a simplification of course but I'm just trying to suggest a basic framework for starting off these kind of discussions. Most of the media and baseball fans seem content on skipping the analysis portion and just start fabricating trades. Then someone says that trade is silly/unrealistic and proposes another trade that inevitably gets shot down. No one can convince anyone they are right or wrong because there is little provided to argue for or against.

 

To have a possibly more fruitful discussion, I am just suggesting to first attempt to estimate what the net market value of a player under contract is and THEN talk about the specifics of a particular trade proposal. Someone thinks WAR is stupid? Use some other way to estimate value. But not to even mention the contracts these guys are under when proposing trades kind of misses what should be at the center of discussion, IMO.

 

Now if you will excuse me, I will scurry back to the major league forum, before I get tarred and feathered!

[SoCal Brew Crew Fan]

Fair analysis on the value of Gallardo. How would you quantify a top 20 pitching prospect? 6 years of cost control/arb, with a discount factor for the probability the do/don't make it. Curious what type of number you'd come up with.

[fondybrewfan]

ARI just pulled Patrick Corbin from his AAA start and are said to be working on something "big" for a starting pitcher. Maybe Gallardo could be involved somehow? Probably a long shot

[JohnBriggs12]

ARI just pulled Patrick Corbin from his AAA start and are said to be working on something "big" for a starting pitcher. Maybe Gallardo could be involved somehow? Probably a long shot

 

Corbin and Bauer or Corbin and Archie Bradley would be more realistic. Long shot? Sure. But I haven't seen his name shot down anywhere.

[Kelbysdaddy]

Corbin and Bauer would be HUGE!!!!!

[Lee16]

Living in Mesa, I listen to AZ sports talk radio a lot, and of course have it on today. They just mentioned Corbin getting pulled from a start tonight in the minors, and also mentioned a "blockbuster" for a "frontline starter and impact bat". I think Gallardo and Hart could fit that description.

 

Also, I want to throw out that there has been a LOT of talk around here recently that the Diamondbacks have really soured a bit on Upton and Bauer. Bauer was up for a handful of starts and looked pretty bad, the D-backs talked to him about changing his really weird pregame warmp up routing and he balked at that and went down to Reno and sulked so bad that Reno basically told him to take 2 weeks off and get his head together.

 

Maybe they'd be willing to move these guys at a little bit of a discount, just to be rid of them. *shrug*

[StearnsFTW]

Much rather have Skaggs than Bauer. And have little interest in upton. Wouldn't love that deal.

[jjfanec]

Sounds like Shields is one of the guys on Arizona's radar. Has Gallardo even been mentioned there? I havent been around most of today

[fondybrewfan]

Upton still intrigues the hell out of me though; down year or not. Control him for 3 more years. An order of Braun, Aram, Upton would be pretty imposing for 2013 and 2014. I am still skeptical and I would want some prospects along with it but the more I think about it the less opposed I would be to taking on Upton. His contract isn't that bad

[RockCoCougars]

Trading Gallardo at this point (so soon after losing Greinke) would be a huge roll of the dice, and would harken a rebuild to me. Trading Gallardo as part of a deal for a volatile offensive player like Upton would be a crazy risk (I'm not saying that such a trade would be crazy to do on paper, but it could turn out to be the type of deal that would get DM fired down the road).

[nate82]

http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2012/07/31/report-diamondbacks-aiming-for-premier-starting-pitcher/

 

This story from today says the Diamondbacks might be considering Gallardo, and in turn giving up Justin Upton and one arm from a trio of Trevor Bauer, Tyler Skaggs and Archie Bradley. Or not including Upton but trading 2 of those 3 pitchers. I like Gallardo but if I'm Melvin, I am considering those deals, if they are even real.

 

Gallardo is a great pitcher, but to me he seems to have hit his ceiling, I haven't seen a whole lot of improvement from him the last year or two. He can be dominant, but he also still has a tendency to rack up high pitch counts pretty early in games, and more often than I'd like goes out and throws a 5 inning, 6 earned run clunker.

 

This sounds more like a deal that would be done in the off season than right now.

[HiAndTight]

Trading Gallardo at this point (so soon after losing Greinke) would be a huge roll of the dice, and would harken a rebuild to me. Trading Gallardo as part of a deal for a volatile offensive player like Upton would be a crazy risk (I'm not saying that such a trade would be crazy to do on paper, but it could turn out to be the type of deal that would get DM fired down the road).

 

 

 

Absolutely. To me it's the furthest you can possibly get from what the Brewers should be doing. If you're going to trade Gallardo, why do it for a guy who's going to be gone just as soon and doesn't change anything?

 

It's ridiculous to me. Maybe an 18 year old Justin Upton, but the point is we're not going to be able to compete in the time period that Yo is here most likely. So if we trade him, it should be for pieces who'll be ready when the young prospects we have no are ready...