Time to trade Gallardo?

[zzzmanwitz]

you strengthen my post by establishing more reason why you cannot trade Gallardo. rotation MIGHT not be as good as this years, but it doesnt have to be shutdown incredible to win the division. look at the Reds and Pirates. they've got one or two solid arms and a bunch of guys who help them get through the first half of a game without getting blown out, and then they let the pen close it down. Brewers have never had a run-scoring problem in the last 6 years, why add to the problems for next year? focus on strengthening the bullpen for next year and we're competitive in a division where all you need is one or two Gallardo/MacDonald/Burnett/Ceuto type starters in the rotation.

 

I guess my point is 2-fold. A) 98% of knowledgeable fans believed that the strength of this team was the bullpen going into this season. So "focusing on strengthening the bullpen" is a science that it seems like cannot be mastered. B) I agree that you keep Gallardo (unless blown away by an offer), but even with him, it is anyone's guess if next year's starters are even close to as good as this year's starters. Yes, I agree, all you need is 1 or 2 established above average starters, but then you are hoping that the rest of the rotation figures it out and contributes. With the team we have next year (sans any FA additions that we cannot predict), no one here can say they will be as successful. That's the risks you take with younger/cheaper players.

[TooLiveBrew]

Maybe I'm jaded by all the failed prospects in the past

 

Ya think?

[torts]

you strengthen my post by establishing more reason why you cannot trade Gallardo. rotation MIGHT not be as good as this years, but it doesnt have to be shutdown incredible to win the division. look at the Reds and Pirates. they've got one or two solid arms and a bunch of guys who help them get through the first half of a game without getting blown out, and then they let the pen close it down. Brewers have never had a run-scoring problem in the last 6 years, why add to the problems for next year? focus on strengthening the bullpen for next year and we're competitive in a division where all you need is one or two Gallardo/MacDonald/Burnett/Ceuto type starters in the rotation.

 

I guess my point is 2-fold. A) 98% of knowledgeable fans believed that the strength of this team was the bullpen going into this season. So "focusing on strengthening the bullpen" is a science that it seems like cannot be mastered. B) I agree that you keep Gallardo (unless blown away by an offer), but even with him, it is anyone's guess if next year's starters are even close to as good as this year's starters. Yes, I agree, all you need is 1 or 2 established above average starters, but then you are hoping that the rest of the rotation figures it out and contributes. With the team we have next year (sans any FA additions that we cannot predict), no one here can say they will be as successful. That's the risks you take with younger/cheaper players.

 

in response...

 

A.) im sorry, maybe I am that 2%, but I told all my friends here in pittsburgh that the brewers bullpen was not going to be as good, and was probably going to be the biggest issue for this season. Losing both Hawkins and Saito, even with their half-season'ish of production last year, and not replacing them with anyone from the FA market was a huge red flag to me. Going into this season, i thought 8/9 with Axford/Krod would not be the issue, but the middle/long-relievers (loe, parra, estrada, dillard, mcclendon)... only to find out that everyone was going to be terrible. you're right, its tough to predict and plan for your bullpen, but if you have a chance to sign veteran relievers (which the brewers do not have any of outside of KRod), you have to get them.

 

B.) And with the team we have next year (sans and FA additions that we cannot predict), no one can also say that they wont be successful.

[zzzmanwitz]

A) Name 1 team that doesn't have some question marks with their middle relief going into a season. Loe used to be our 8th inning guy and now would be a 6/7 guy. Estrada, we knew he could be solid in a long relief role. The other guys, if they sucked, we could bring up new guys. As far as bullpens go, ours was about as good as it gets (ON PAPER!).

 

B) I never said they will not be successful, I said that using a rotation with so many unproven players is a risk (and sometimes a risk that needs to be taken for small market teams).

[torts]

A) Name 1 team that doesn't have some question marks with their middle relief going into a season. Loe used to be our 8th inning guy and now would be a 6/7 guy. Estrada, we knew he could be solid in a long relief role. The other guys, if they sucked, we could bring up new guys. As far as bullpens go, ours was about as good as it gets (ON PAPER!).

 

B) I never said they will not be successful, I said that using a rotation with so many unproven players is a risk (and sometimes a risk that needs to be taken for small market teams).

 

right, Loe WAS the 8th guy, he sucked in that role, and they got KRod moving Loe into a situational use only last season with Saito/Hawkins as the 6/7th guys. Loe is used FAR to much out of the pen. Estrada probably would be a good long reliever if he wasnt in the rotation right now...

[jjfanec]

I think people over-estimate what type of team it takes to be competitive.

 

No offense, but did you miss the 90's? Look at that projected pitching staff for next season, along with the potential free agent targets. Maybe I'm jaded by all the failed prospects in the past, but I think that people tend to overestimate the effect of young pitching here. You do not win without solid pitching, and I'm just not seeing it for the next few years.

 

I actually do remember the 90's even though I would like to forget. We will have Yo, and I think there is a good chance Marcum is back for one year. If we have those two with Estrada, Fiers, Thornburg, Rogers, and Peralta I think there is a chance we have a solid rotation.

[torts]

I think people over-estimate what type of team it takes to be competitive.

 

No offense, but did you miss the 90's? Look at that projected pitching staff for next season, along with the potential free agent targets. Maybe I'm jaded by all the failed prospects in the past, but I think that people tend to overestimate the effect of young pitching here. You do not win without solid pitching, and I'm just not seeing it for the next few years.

 

I actually do remember the 90's even though I would like to forget. We will have Yo, and I think there is a good chance Marcum is back for one year. If we have those two with Estrada, Fiers, Thornburg, Rogers, and Peralta I think there is a chance we have a solid rotation.

 

high-five!

[zzzmanwitz]

Again, I was talking at the start of the season, not now. When the season started, we all said, "If the starters can get us 6 or 7 good innings, we will be pretty solid this year." That turned out to not be the case.

 

And for a middle relief guy, Loe has been pretty solid. 3.86 ERA, 1.3 WHIP. Not lights out, but I'm not sure what more you expect from a journeyman bullpen arm.

[torts]

Again, I was talking at the start of the season, not now. When the season started, we all said, "If the starters can get us 6 or 7 good innings, we will be pretty solid this year." That turned out to not be the case.

 

And for a middle relief guy, Loe has been pretty solid. 3.86 ERA, 1.3 WHIP. Not lights out, but I'm not sure what more you expect from a journeyman bullpen arm.

 

I was also talking about the beginning of the season, I had very little faith in the way our pen was constructed outside of krod/axford as the 8th and 9th guy... and as the season went on, I lost all faith in everyone. the rotation would give us 6+ innings, and then it would all fall apart.

[zzzmanwitz]

I don't think you understand what I am saying torts. When it comes to bullpens, you can't expect any more than being confident in your closer and setup guy, which is exactly what you, I, and 99% of brewer nation were. We thought Ax and K-Rod were about as shut down as you can get in the back end of a BP, and based on how they did last year, we had every right to believe that. Each and every team in the majors is hoping to find 1 or two guys that they can rely on in middle relief because you are usually relying on journeymen or unknown young former minor league pitchers. You can't expect to have 6 guys out there that have 1.80 to 3.00 ERAs.

 

THIS WAS TO START THE YEAR. We were set, ready to shut down games. Ax is on one of the longest save streaks in MLB history. K-Rod, a former closer with the single season save record, will be able to handle the 8th, no problem. You, I, and 99% of brewer nation now know that this wasn't the case.

 

My whole point to this is that you can think you have built a great bullpen, probably even viewed as top 3-5 in the majors, and it can all fall apart. Assembling a good bullpen is just as much luck as it is skill. We can say, all we need to do is add a few guys to shore up the bullpen and we will be right back contending next year, but even if you add proven guys, you truly never know until the season starts.

[HiAndTight]

Again, I was talking at the start of the season, not now. When the season started, we all said, "If the starters can get us 6 or 7 good innings, we will be pretty solid this year." That turned out to not be the case.

 

And for a middle relief guy, Loe has been pretty solid. 3.86 ERA, 1.3 WHIP. Not lights out, but I'm not sure what more you expect from a journeyman bullpen arm.

 

I was also talking about the beginning of the season, I had very little faith in the way our pen was constructed outside of krod/axford as the 8th and 9th guy... and as the season went on, I lost all faith in everyone. the rotation would give us 6+ innings, and then it would all fall apart.

 

 

Why is that? Why going INTO the season would people have doubted the pen? I'm honestly not calling you a liar, perhaps there are people that did, but I think also a lot of people subconsciously

look at the results and revise what pretty much everyone expected out of this pen.

 

First of all, you say "outside of," Axford who was nearly perfect last year, and K-Rod who was about as good as a SU man as there was while he was with us. So right there you've got the 8th and 9th locked down. To add to that you added Veras, a guy who throws in the mid 90's with a very good breaking ball and was coming off a solid year, Loe who most thought would be a great fit as a middle reliever, expectations where high for Parra, and he showed why for long stretches this year after how he pitched in relief before he got hurt, and then we had Estrada as a long man, and a plethora of other options to take up the last spot in our pen.

 

That seems about as solid a pen as you could ask for before the year started.

 

Especially when you had;

1-Greinke-an ace who routinely goes 6-7 innnings,

2-Gallardo who routinely pitches into the 6th.

3-Wolf who's a 200 inning a year guy just about every year.

4-Marcum who's a very good pitcher, and

5-Narveson who performed much better than an average #5 last year.

 

So I can't imagine why anyone would have been worried about our pitching this year, those 5

Ax, K-rod, Veras, Loe, Parra, Estrada-And then a number of other candidates.

[fondybrewfan]

I was a little concerned with the pen due to the loss of Hawkins and Saito; but it was hardly a major concern for me. We had starters we thought would routinely go 6 or 7 and we had Krod and Axford to clean it up. Like with most teams I thought the middle relief was a little sketchy but not that bad.

[Lee16]

http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2012/07/31/report-diamondbacks-aiming-for-premier-starting-pitcher/

 

This story from today says the Diamondbacks might be considering Gallardo, and in turn giving up Justin Upton and one arm from a trio of Trevor Bauer, Tyler Skaggs and Archie Bradley. Or not including Upton but trading 2 of those 3 pitchers. I like Gallardo but if I'm Melvin, I am considering those deals, if they are even real.

 

Gallardo is a great pitcher, but to me he seems to have hit his ceiling, I haven't seen a whole lot of improvement from him the last year or two. He can be dominant, but he also still has a tendency to rack up high pitch counts pretty early in games, and more often than I'd like goes out and throws a 5 inning, 6 earned run clunker.

[JohnBriggs12]

http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2012/07/31/report-diamondbacks-aiming-for-premier-starting-pitcher/

 

This story from today says the Diamondbacks might be considering Gallardo, and in turn giving up Justin Upton and one arm from a trio of Trevor Bauer, Tyler Skaggs and Archie Bradley. Or not including Upton but trading 2 of those 3 pitchers. I like Gallardo but if I'm Melvin, I am considering those deals, if they are even real.

 

Gallardo is a great pitcher, but to me he seems to have hit his ceiling, I haven't seen a whole lot of improvement from him the last year or two. He can be dominant, but he also still has a tendency to rack up high pitch counts pretty early in games, and more often than I'd like goes out and throws a 5 inning, 6 earned run clunker.

 

Seriously, if you could get Bauer and Skaggs for Gallardo, or Upton and one of those two, I'd do it in a heartbeat. Bauer (9) and Skaggs (13) were two of the top 13 BA prospects. Neither has done anything this year that would lower those rankings either. Both have ERA's under 3 in Reno, a hitter's paradise. Gallardo's never had a full season with an ERA under 3.5.

 

As for leaving yourself short in next year's rotation, I'll try and get by with what 8 or 9 pretty decent candidates, all of whom would be inexpensive. If you need a solid veteran #2 or #3, look at all the chips you'd have to deal for one and plenty of cash to shop for one in the FA market.

[SRB]

Wow, that would be a great trade. Upton + one of Bauer/Skaggs/Bradley?!

 

Too bad there is a negative probability that Melvin will trade the last remaining 2012 opening day starter (given that Greinke/Marcum/Wolf/Narveson likely won't be in the 2013 rotation). Still need to field a 2013 team...

[fondybrewfan]

That would be an amazing trade for sure and I would do it in a heartbeat. I am sure Melvin would strongly consider it but it would take some cajones to trade your best remaining pitcher. It would be quite the challenge to fill out the 2013 rotation with talent that would be competitive.

[StearnsFTW]

NM

[StearnsFTW]

Wow, that would be a great trade. Upton + one of Bauer/Skaggs/Bradley?!

 

Too bad there is a negative probability that Melvin will trade the last remaining 2012 opening day starter (given that Greinke/Marcum/Wolf/Narveson likely won't be in the 2013 rotation). Still need to field a 2013 team...

 

I wouldn't take Upton. I'd take Bauer & Skaggs and put them both in the rotation for 2013. It actually fills 2 slots in the rotation instead of 1. Probably just as effectively as Gallardo and Peralta (example). Or at least close to it.

 

I have a very, very hard time believing Arizona would deal those two guys for Gallardo though.

[JohnBriggs12]

That would be an amazing trade for sure and I would do it in a heartbeat. I am sure Melvin would strongly consider it but it would take some cajones to trade your best remaining pitcher. It would be quite the challenge to fill out the 2013 rotation with talent that would be competitive.

 

I don't think anyone suggested trading Fiers.

[brewmann04]

wow wonder how true that really is but think melvin will need to explore it if true.

[Jaylyn]

That would be a stunner if true, would rather have Bauer & Skaggs, but I too have a hard time seeing Arizona offering that, but an offer of Bauer and Upton for Yo? I would still pull that trigger.

[TURBO]

Why would AZ trade 2 studs that are close to major league ready for Gallardo? Makes no sense unless they still believe they have a shot at a playoff spot. They are 6 games back for a wildcard spot right now.

 

Do they view Gallardo as the guy who can push them into the playoffs?

 

I just don't buy this story at all.

[TooLiveBrew]

That would be an amazing trade for sure and I would do it in a heartbeat. I am sure Melvin would strongly consider it but it would take some cajones to trade your best remaining pitcher. It would be quite the challenge to fill out the 2013 rotation with talent that would be competitive.

I don't think anyone suggested trading Fiers.

 

You must really entertain yourself.

[fondybrewfan]

That would be an amazing trade for sure and I would do it in a heartbeat. I am sure Melvin would strongly consider it but it would take some cajones to trade your best remaining pitcher. It would be quite the challenge to fill out the 2013 rotation with talent that would be competitive.

 

I don't think anyone suggested trading Fiers.

 

Fiers has been good for 10 starts; I am not willing to call him our best pitcher at this point and I am pretty confident 2013 will be a disaster if you are counting on Fiers to be our best pitcher.

[Invader3K]

Why would the Brewers have any interest in Upton? The outfield isn't a need for the Crew right now. These rumors are getting really desperate and weird.