Time to trade Gallardo?

[MNBrew]

Sure, Yo sucked tonight, but he, like most everyone, just has games like this every so often.

 

If the Brewers' hitters could string more than two hits together, maybe it becomes a different ballgame tonight. In other words, the offense's continued ineptitude just made Yo's off-ness tonight more glaring.

 

Trade Yo? Really, Nate? So we can have an Estrada-led rotation next year along w/ all the young guys (Fiers, Thornburg, ????, plus maybe Narveson if he's healthy)? In a word, no.

[chadomac]

Yeah, this is a ridiculous idea. Our rotation is already looking pretty awful next year... And you want to trade the one good remaining starter we have? We need more starters, not less.

[MNBrew]

Yes, Yo doesn't quite have the stuff Verlander does, but he just needs to learn to trust his stuff. The only thing holding him back is the fact he tries to nibble to much and doesn't just go after guys.

It sure seems Yo could move a guy or two off the plate, maybe knock someone down, when he's getting hit hard on a night like tonight.

[RockCoCougars]

One thing with Yo is that he seems to often be victimized by one big inning. He may give up 4 runs in an inning and then string together three starts where he only gives up 4 runs total. Even in his bad games, it seems like he either starts bad and then straightens things out, or he is cruising along and then gives up a walk and a couple of bombs. It almost seems like he has more innings when he surrenders a crooked number (3 or more) than he does where he only allows a single run. Kind of odd, but all told, the number of scoreless innings that he has are enough for me.

[HiAndTight]

Can we rename this thread, "Knee-Jerk Reaction Trade Suggestions?"

 

 

No, but we COULD just link it to the thread that I started suggesting the VERY same thing...

 

And it has and had nothing to do with any of his pour starts. It's actually quite simple.

 

1-Gallardo has a LOT of value. People who are pointing out that he has 2 years left on his contract and a 3rd year that's guaranteed to be picked up if he stays healthy and he projects to be a durable starter.

 

2-The Brewers do NOT project to be competitive in the next 3 seasons.

 

So that leaves us with;

 

3-Either keep Gallardo while we're a bad team and keep him just so we can hope to be a 75 win team rather than a 70 win team, OR we can trade him for several top prospects who can help us in 3 years when the rest of our young prospects are either ready to truly contribute or are entering the upper levels of the minors and can provide valuable trade assets, or who we can wait for to develop along with the rest of our young guys.

 

 

To dismiss trading Gallardo is incredibly short sighted. If you KNOW you're not going to be good for the next 2-3 years and that's how long Gallardo is controlled for, exactly what sense does it make to keep him when right now is probably the height of his value?

[HiAndTight]

Profar may be a superstar. He also may be god awful. Trout and Harper are already stars. And yeah, I'd agree that Fiers better than Gallardo is VERY extreme. I think Fiers is older than Gallardo?

 

 

Harper is already a "star?"

 

Mike Trout is already a "star."

Bryce Harper is a solid player thus far and little more when you look just at his production.

 

Now obviously everyone can easily predict that he's GOING to be a star, but Harper's got a .268/.340 .785 OPS while playing and he's been a below average fielder this year.

 

So at .268 with a .785 and below average D, he's hardly a "superstar," and if you want to stick your head in the sand and just lump all players who haven't yet become star players into one group, ie, Profar is as likely to be a bust as any other top prospect, then Bryce Harper is just as likely to be a bust as Adam Lind or any other highly regarded past young OF'er.

 

Of course most people realize that ridiculous talent that is Jurickson Profar as they do with Bryce Harper and his incredible talent.

[Oldcity]

Saying they don't project well for the next three seasons is a bit much. If they hit on this trade, I could see them in contention for 2014.

[HiAndTight]

One thing I can say HiAndTight, is that I sure would love to see Profar in a Brewers uniform, and if all it took was trading Gallardo I'd do it in a heartbeat. But sadly, I don't think Gallardo alone would bring back Profar. The Rangers know what they have in Profar and a team will need to overpay to get him. Profar looks like he is going to be about as good as Mike Trout and better than Bryce Harper.

 

I used to think that Greinke + K-Rod could get us Profar, but not the way K-Rod has looked. It might be more like Greinke + Gallardo (!) to get him.... maybe we can get Olt for Greinke, or Machado from Baltimore for Greinke.

 

I think Mike Fiers has a real chance to be better than Gallardo in a few years, btw

 

 

I do NOT think Fiers will be a better pitcher than Gallardo, but I don't think it's as outrageous as others are suggesting. Fiers has shown the ability to make adjustments throughout the game, his fastball is realy deceptive, he throws strikes, he has a very underrated curveball and he throws a lot of different pitches up there.

 

Still, I think he's more likely to be a #3 and a #4 on a playoff team(maybe he keeps it up) while Gallardo is at leat a notch above. #2 and maybe a #3 on a really good playoff team.

 

 

I still think about the heat I took when I suggested we trade Greinke and K-Rod for Profar and how I was told I was underestimating Greinke, and how teams trading for Greinke won't even take into consideration the draft pick compensation like how we apparently didn't take the compensation into account for Sabathia, which I thought was foolish as we very likely have Mike Trout patrolling CF for the Brewers right now if Tex takes the Red Sox deal or the O's deal or anyone else but the Yankees deal as we'd have been picking at #28 and where said to have liked Trout. Anyway, at least MOST of the nonsense about Profar not being enough for Greinke has subside.

 

And I'd do Gallardo for Profar in a second. Realistically we'll end up trading Greinke for a package like Richards and Segura from the Angels and play him at 2nd.

[HiAndTight]

Wow. Some pretty extreme stuff there. Fiers better than Gallardo? And even more, Profar better than Harper/as good as Trout? I think you may be getting a little too swayed by recent history.

 

 

By the way, I think Profar has a very good chance to be mentioned in that group with Harper and Trout over the next two decades as Profar is the youngest of the three, but plays the most important position.

 

I think it's absolutely likely that Profar will have seasons in which he puts up superior numbers to Harper and Trout, but those two seem to be just most established right now. Profar though as I've said several times I believe is going to be unlike any other SS in the game right now.

 

A 5 tool SS who has great plate awareness, walks, hits for average, will hit for power...a .850 OPS and a GG caliber defender while hitting leadoff. I think he's going to be the standard for Shortstop for the next decade to 15 years.

[HiAndTight]

Saying they don't project well for the next three seasons is a bit much. If they hit on this trade, I could see them in contention for 2014.

 

 

Ok, so lets stop and see what that'd take going through the lineup.

 

1B-What do we do here? I still think very highly of Gamel, but I suspect he's going to be shipped away for very little in the off-season. I really think he just never got the right shot in Milwaukee until this year and while he started out very good, he got hurt.

So that means we re-sign Hart. I don't like the thought of a 32-33 year old Hart. Even at 1st base. I think he would command something like 4 years 50 million or so.

2B-Weeks? Ok, I can buy that. Or Gennett.

SS-We'd have to hit, and it'd likely have to be for Simmons of the Braves(not likely) or Segura from the Angels(likely who we are targeting).

3B-ARam? I think he'll still be solid at 35-36, or he could be. I think .270/.340/.450 is probably realistic from him at that age with diminished range.

C-We're set here for the long term.

LF-Obviously set.

CF-Schafer is probably a 2nd team starter of a #4. I'm at the point where I'd like to see Gomez every single day next year because of the way he started the season this year hitting .280 and he can just help you win a game in SO many ways that doesn't show up in the stat sheet. And again, this is a 180 for me from the past two years, but I still see something in him, and I think that on a team that's destined to lose next year, I'd like to just throw him out there and see if he can finally put it all together. The problem is you want to see Schafer to. Either way, this is a big position to fix.

RF-Aoki's a pretty good bet to be a very solid player, especially when he's got a couple years in the league.

 

NOW comes the problem.

We'e got Gallardo who's contract would be coming up(we'd hold the option year).

But to be a legit playoff team we'd need IMO a BETTER pitcher than what Gallardo has shown so far, so he'd either have to take the next step...which we've been waiting for for a while, or someone else would have to jump over him and become that ace. Lets even say we get that. We'd still need a viable #3/4/5. It's possible Thornburg, Peralta, Rogers, Bradley, Jungman, Burgos could fill out two of those spots and Fiers the other one.

 

But it's not likely.

 

Everyhing would have to go almost perfect for this to be the case, AND we'd have to draw 2.5-2.75 million to be able to afford a 110-115 million dollar payroll..which I think is possible.

 

But we're going amost best case scenario's for all these things to come to fruition. IT's going to take a couple of TERRIBLE seasons and TOP draft picks and a couple of players in the minors to really outperform their projected numbers for us to be a playoff team in 2014 IMO.

 

Especially when you look at the other teams and what they have coming up.

 

Pitt-They're a good team right now, and they have four incredible young starters on their way up. 4 guys who can throw the ball in the upper 90's with ace like stuff, plus McDonald, McCutchen, Alvarez, Marte and they may get Justin Upton.

 

The Cards are a team with three elite prospects, Carlos Martinez, Shelby Miller and Tavaras a top OF prospect.

 

The Cubs are building from within and have the money to spend near the luxury threshold.

 

That's just in our own division. You also have the Nats who look like long time contenders, the Phills should bounce back, the Dodgers are building...

 

 

I don't see us competing in the next 4-5 years. Again, it'd take a freakish amount of good luck for us to hit on enough impact players to get back that spot....sans Greinke. If we sign him as a FA and hit on his trade that could change the entire pictue, but it's also highly unlikely.

[HiAndTight]

One thing with Yo is that he seems to often be victimized by one big inning. He may give up 4 runs in an inning and then string together three starts where he only gives up 4 runs total. Even in his bad games, it seems like he either starts bad and then straightens things out, or he is cruising along and then gives up a walk and a couple of bombs. It almost seems like he has more innings when he surrenders a crooked number (3 or more) than he does where he only allows a single run. Kind of odd, but all told, the number of scoreless innings that he has are enough for me.

 

 

 

Trading Gallardo to me has nothing to do with his struggles and everything in the world to do with his value.

 

If we're not likely to be contenders during his current contract, trading him is the fastest way to become competitive again.

 

Greinke and Gallardo could net us a package of 4-5 top 50 prospecs.

[jjfanec]

 

It is very GM's and Owner's MO to completely rebuild. What teams have really done this? The Astros are currently doing it and Oakland has kind of done it. Have we seen the complete rebuild work well? I am asking because I just dont know.

 

If I were Braun there is no way I would want to waste my prime on a team that doesnt have any hope at all. The prospects for Gallardo would have to be really close to the majors not A ball guys

 

i think tampa bay has the model people kind of look at when talking about this. but for them it was much more of a "finally build" than "rebuild".

 

But they were able to do that in part because they were so bad for so long. They had a top 8 pick in the draft for 10 straight years! 6 years were top 4 and 4 years were the number 1 pick. Are we ready to be that bad for that long to "rebuild" like Tampa did?

[jjfanec]

I don't see us competing in the next 4-5 years. Again, it'd take a freakish amount of good luck for us to hit on enough impact players to get back that spot....sans Greinke. If we sign him as a FA and hit on his trade that could change the entire pictue, but it's also highly unlikely.

 

If we are not going to compete for 4-5 years it is time to trade Braun then too, right? Why leave him around in his prime, getting paid like he does?

 

I think people over-estimate what type of team it takes to be competitive. Look Oakland, Pittsburgh, SF (considering Lincecum is pretty much hurting them this year), Baltimore, the White Sox, etc and tell me we could be on that talent level really soon. Sure Pitt has some nice guys in the minors but they have a rotation that was scrapped together but has worked out.

[PeaveyFury]

 

I think people over-estimate what type of team it takes to be competitive.

 

Yeah, I think everyone would agree that offensively we need to fill a hole at SS and maybe 3B or 1B, depending on what moves we make. Hopefully the Greinke trade fills one of those.

 

Pitching is more problematic, as Hiandtight notes. But a decent bullpen of Hawkins/Saito types can be built reasonably effectively through free agency, and if Axford rebounds, they can fill that problem quickly.

 

The rotation is an issue, but Gallardo plus Fiers/Thornberg/Peralta and maybe Estrada/Narveson could be effective enough to keep us competitive. If Marcum comes back on a short-term deal as it's rumored he might, I think they're at least in the hunt for the division next year.

[SoCal Brew Crew Fan]

There are no truly elite teams in the NL right now, nor should there be any over the next couple years. Despite the crummy year, a decent pen, some health and a better performance or two...the Brewers are knocking on the door and looking for a piece to put them over the top. Trading Gallardo is something you do when looking at a complete rebuild. The situation is nowhere near that dire.

 

Second half of he decade? Gets tougher to keep going if the minor league system doesn't keep improving. It's also tough for me to see the big markets (LA, Chicago & NY) floundering the way they have. It's not going to be much fun to be a Brewers fan when the Cubs get it together. In the meantime, keep it going and try and get in the dance. Hope they get hot and can put a flag up on the wall...and don't trade Gallardo.

[Team Canada]

Merged the two Gallardo threads.

[torts]

seriously, we were a bullpen away from winning this division. the starting pitching, hitting, defense were not the problem on this team, so freaking out and trading away Gallardo/Hart/Ramirez is just foolish. the brewers will still be good next year and the year after.

[dlk9s]

I think people over-estimate what type of team it takes to be competitive. Look Oakland, Pittsburgh, SF (considering Lincecum is pretty much hurting them this year), Baltimore, the White Sox, etc and tell me we could be on that talent level really soon. Sure Pitt has some nice guys in the minors but they have a rotation that was scrapped together but has worked out.

For the most part, we are on that talent level. As torts said, we'd be right in the thick of things if our bullpen had been halfway decent. I didn't think the bullpen would be as good as last year's, but I did not expect all the guys to turn into Johnson's Park pitching machines.

[chadomac]

The rotation is an absolute mess next year. Not sure how it's going to get fixed. Marcum signing a one year deal to get his value up again would help a lot... but I'm not sure that's going to happen.

 

I'm worried this team is going to be like the teams we've had around 2008-2011. Teams with offense but no pitching.

[dlk9s]

Marcum could be the key. If he comes back on a one-year deal, we have a solid, though not overwhelming, top two. I'm not expecting Fiers and Estrada to be all-stars, but if they can pitch fairly well, and they have obviously shown the ability to do so, that's a more than adequate set of four. After that, I don't know. We definitely wouldn't have much depth.

[zzzmanwitz]

I hate getting off topic, but I want to address as specific point.

 

"seriously, we were a bullpen away from winning this division. the starting pitching, hitting, defense were not the problem on this team, so freaking out and trading away Gallardo/Hart/Ramirez is just foolish. the brewers will still be good next year and the year after."

 

Ok, while I agree with this statement for this year's team, next year's team is a different issue. Next year's starting rotation is not likely to be as good as this year's. We are losing out best pitcher and Mike Fiers is unlikely to continue to be a 2 ERA pitcher. Narveson/Thornburg/Estrada/Rogers/Peralta/Burgos/Marcum?/(Even) Fiers are all question marks going into 2013. Gallardo is really the only known we have. Sure, we could sign a 3/4 starter to an average contract, but that's still at least 60% of your opening day rotation that we have really no clue on how well they will perform.

 

As for our bullpen, yes, this team was an average bullpen away from being contenders this season, but where do you see us improving our bullpen next year? Axford is the only guy coming back for sure. Depending on how the rest of the season goes, Henderson may have a 6th or 7th inning role. Other than that... all question marks. I've suggested trading Maldonado for an established bullpen arm, but I have gotten a lot of push back on getting rid of a cheap backup catcher. I am 100% for putting a cheap bullpen together and seeing what sticks, but we have no idea if next year's BP will be any better (even though it can't get much worse).

[TURBO]

If Marcum comes back and finishes the year strong, there is no way he signs a one year deal with us.

 

If he is injured off and on for the remainder of this season, or just can't pitch effectively from here on out, then I can see a one year deal.

[ninja33]

As for our bullpen, yes, this team was an average bullpen away from being contenders this season, but where do you see us improving our bullpen next year? Axford is the only guy coming back for sure. Depending on how the rest of the season goes, Henderson may have a 6th or 7th inning role. Other than that... all question marks. I've suggested trading Maldonado for an established bullpen arm, but I have gotten a lot of push back on getting rid of a cheap backup catcher. I am 100% for putting a cheap bullpen together and seeing what sticks, but we have no idea if next year's BP will be any better (even though it can't get much worse).

 

The not K-rod portion of the bullpen made ~$7M this year. I won't count K-rod's money, because it really wasnt part of the plan, and we can just attribute it to players who get raises next year. But assuming a bullpen budget of $7-8M you have Ax and probably three guys making the minimum from the minors (Henderson, Kintzler (?), and maybe a guy like Rogers. I'm just throwing those names out there, so don't jump down my throat). Between those 4 you're probably spending about $3.5M (that's giving Axford $2M in arbitration, no idea if that's right or not). That leaves you about $4M to sign 2 guys to Saito like deals. I think he made $1.75M. Or take away one of the minor league guys and add another free agent ($5M to sign 3 guys). Basically you're replacing Loe, Veras, and Parra (combined $5M+) with new free agents, and then cycling in some minor league guys for Dillard and Estrada (if he's in the rotation. he could fit in here too), and hoping Ax remembers how to be Ax. There's lots of ways to go with it. I know it sounds a lot like throwing a bunch of crap at the wall and hoping it sticks, but that's how a lot of bullpens are built. This year it didn't stick, last year it did.

[torts]

I hate getting off topic, but I want to address as specific point.

 

"seriously, we were a bullpen away from winning this division. the starting pitching, hitting, defense were not the problem on this team, so freaking out and trading away Gallardo/Hart/Ramirez is just foolish. the brewers will still be good next year and the year after."

 

Ok, while I agree with this statement for this year's team, next year's team is a different issue. Next year's starting rotation is not likely to be as good as this year's. We are losing out best pitcher and Mike Fiers is unlikely to continue to be a 2 ERA pitcher. Narveson/Thornburg/Estrada/Rogers/Peralta/Burgos/Marcum?/(Even) Fiers are all question marks going into 2013. Gallardo is really the only known we have. Sure, we could sign a 3/4 starter to an average contract, but that's still at least 60% of your opening day rotation that we have really no clue on how well they will perform.

 

As for our bullpen, yes, this team was an average bullpen away from being contenders this season, but where do you see us improving our bullpen next year? Axford is the only guy coming back for sure. Depending on how the rest of the season goes, Henderson may have a 6th or 7th inning role. Other than that... all question marks. I've suggested trading Maldonado for an established bullpen arm, but I have gotten a lot of push back on getting rid of a cheap backup catcher. I am 100% for putting a cheap bullpen together and seeing what sticks, but we have no idea if next year's BP will be any better (even though it can't get much worse).

 

you strengthen my post by establishing more reason why you cannot trade Gallardo. rotation MIGHT not be as good as this years, but it doesnt have to be shutdown incredible to win the division. look at the Reds and Pirates. they've got one or two solid arms and a bunch of guys who help them get through the first half of a game without getting blown out, and then they let the pen close it down. Brewers have never had a run-scoring problem in the last 6 years, why add to the problems for next year? focus on strengthening the bullpen for next year and we're competitive in a division where all you need is one or two Gallardo/MacDonald/Burnett/Ceuto type starters in the rotation.

[RockCoCougars]

I think people over-estimate what type of team it takes to be competitive.

 

No offense, but did you miss the 90's? Look at that projected pitching staff for next season, along with the potential free agent targets. Maybe I'm jaded by all the failed prospects in the past, but I think that people tend to overestimate the effect of young pitching here. You do not win without solid pitching, and I'm just not seeing it for the next few years.