Time to trade Gallardo?

[HiAndTight]

After Loe has got roughed up no one in the pen looks like anything other than generic waiver claim middle relievers. Team wide there has been as much under performance overall as there was over performance last year. That said with most of the offense guys it looks more like a case of a really bad month early followed by about career norms the rest of the way. Basically with straight performance expectations on the offense side it looks like a .500 team. If the bullpen had been merely average this year we'd be sitting right there with the Cards. I've gone back and forth, but in a certain sense the idea that we only need some talent improvement is correct. Almost all of it needs to be on the pitching side. Spend the rest of the season trying to sort out and find out who can be relied upon in the pen. Trade Greinke or Gallardo only if you have to. Finding replacements as others have suggested is very high risk, and only increases the chances of having seasons like this where everything seems to go wrong.

 

I'm not past the point of still holding out hope for this season. If we come out of the break hot, and our relievers throw like they're capable of, and perhaps we throw in a Thornburg and Peralta toward the end of the year to get their feet wet as relievers, power armed relievers like Wainwright did on their 83 win WS team where he got into the later part of the season and dominated helping them win the division and was great in the post-season. We don't need that, but we could certainly use them to help supplement Ax, K-rod and Veras all three of whom I believe will come around, Loe who I think should be the 5th/6th guy on the pen, and if we do go on a streak, we could trade for a loogy. Hell, if we go on a streak and the Marlins struggle, Choate is ideal. As are MANY others. Jed Bradley could even step into a loogy role(haven't looked at his splits) though that seems ridiculous.

 

It is extremely difficult to build a solid, let alone great, pitching staff in MLB. Losing that many years of Gallardo would hurt, but then again as HiAndTight points out, that is precisely why trading Gallardo would bring us back players of value.

 

In a lot of ways, it is a great idea in theory, however in reality there are a few perhaps insurmountable challenges:

 

EXACTLY. You can't rebuild your team by trading away guys without a ton of value.

 

 

And again, I'm simply looking at what our future looks like with Gallardo through his FA years. Nothing. Not even close to a contender UNLESS we find magic and Fiers continues to pitch like a #2, Thornburg turns into a 1/2 like Gallardo, Nelson turns into a #2, Peralta a #3, and Jugnman/Bradley also turn into middle of the rotation type of starters.

 

 

If the pitching GODS all decide to grace us with every pitcher pitching to his absolute ceiling in the next couple years and you throw in Gallardo, Rogers becomes a 8th inning guy, Manzanillo and Wooten become important parts of the pen and any left handed reliever develops, then I suppose we could manage to become not only relevant, but actually succeed and contend. Still need a SS, but still...

 

 

 

 

Instead, and this is the MOST important part, we're in the most dangerous place this franchise has been in a long time. If they go out and spend what they can afford THIS YEAR(2013, 115-118) there is a very good chance we go down in flames, are locked into Suppan type deals(save for maybe a 3 year 33 million dollar deal for Edwin Jackson) and I hate to use Suppan, but that's the type of pitcher we're getting for what we can afford or Marcum who makes my arm hurt watching him pitching and will almost certainly not make it 4 years. I just fear that we'll replace the Greinke, Marcum, K-Rod, Wolf money the last players on the market we go after who will become terrible deals we end up waiting to expire while winning 65-70 games.

 

 

 

-Apologies for the several posts in a row, just trying to respond to each point.

[Dollarbill13]

HiAndTight, I didn't mean to twist your words. Sorry if you took it that way. I'm fine with it if you think Gomez & Gamel have the potential to be 3-4 WAR players. My point is that if they are, we'd have a very solid all around lineup (with a possibly weak SS). The rotation would be a question mark but we still have Gallardo, Fiers, and Estrada, who have proven to be at least a solid 2-4 portion of the rotation and Thornburg who will likely be ready as well. So we'd basically need a top of the rotation guy, a SS, and a bullpen. The bullpen can usually be addressed cheaply which leaves two spots where we'd need to spend to have, what would be, a pretty solid team.

 

And for what it's worth, I don't think if you remove a 3 WAR player from a lineup and replaced him with a 0 WAR player that you'd lose exactly three wins. There is a high degree of variability due to situational performance. It could probably be anywhere from 0 to 10 (I have no idea). However, the intention of the statistic is to show how many wins they would be worth if all other things were the same. My opinion is that you should use WAR to calculate how many wins you think your team is worth, understanding that there is a lot of variability in the actual outcomes. If you do that, with the assumptions of 3-4 win potential from Gamel and Gomez, we are pretty darn close to being a team that should be in the race.

[NievesNoNO]

I'm not sure if Gallardo could bring back a top 10 prospect but if anybody can he's the one. In the recent past the Royals were rumored to be looking for a young cost controlled pitcher. I'm not sure if that's still the case or if Gallardo qualifies as such anymore but here's my video game, 'what if' scenario:

 

Gallardo to Royals for Wil Myers and Clint Robinson. The Royals GM supposedly loves Francouer so maaayyybee...??

 

Myers is freed, the Brewers have the flexibility to trade Hart for a couple of prospects, and Clint Robinson gets his shot at the Majors.

[JohnBriggs12]

I'm looking forward to a rotation of Hi, Ty and Yo. There's no need to trade Yo. They potentially have 7 guys competing for next years rotation (Yo, Thornburg, Burgos, Estrada, Fiers, Peralta, Narveson) 8 if you throw Rogers in there, and all but Yo and Narveson who'll be first year arby eligible, will be playing for near major league minimum.

 

That opens up tons of possibilities to add talent. Undoubtedly they'll look to add one veteran arm, help in the bullpen and my guess is one big bat. But they have money to spend. They'll either get talent back in deals for Greinke, and Marcum, or take several high picks.

 

I'd hang on to Gallardo.

[3and2Fastball]

One thing I can say HiAndTight, is that I sure would love to see Profar in a Brewers uniform, and if all it took was trading Gallardo I'd do it in a heartbeat. But sadly, I don't think Gallardo alone would bring back Profar. The Rangers know what they have in Profar and a team will need to overpay to get him. Profar looks like he is going to be about as good as Mike Trout and better than Bryce Harper.

 

I used to think that Greinke + K-Rod could get us Profar, but not the way K-Rod has looked. It might be more like Greinke + Gallardo (!) to get him.... maybe we can get Olt for Greinke, or Machado from Baltimore for Greinke.

 

I think Mike Fiers has a real chance to be better than Gallardo in a few years, btw

[Oldcity]

Wow. Some pretty extreme stuff there. Fiers better than Gallardo? And even more, Profar better than Harper/as good as Trout? I think you may be getting a little too swayed by recent history.

[jmeks23]

Profar may be a superstar. He also may be god awful. Trout and Harper are already stars. And yeah, I'd agree that Fiers better than Gallardo is VERY extreme. I think Fiers is older than Gallardo?

[nate82]

I really can not figure Gallardo out at all. One year he is very good then the next not so much. The same from start to start he will be lights out and then he will look like Suppan Jr. I think it is time to cut bait and just trade Gallardo this off season. He is just not a player I believe you build a team around and he is definitely not a #1 or Ace type of a pitcher. Right now it looks like Gallardo is a #2 or a #3 starter while valuable it is not something that the Brewers need right now. If the Brewers are able to resign Greinke in the off season then yeah keep Gallardo but if the team is not able to get a #1 type pitcher either through trading or signing I just do not see this team going anywhere with Gallardo as the #1.

 

There would be a lot of teams interested in Gallardo next year and it would only benefit the Brewers to trade Gallardo in the off season.

 

Red Sox: Gallardo for Bogaerts, Garin Cecchini, and Stolmy Pimentel. This gives the Brewers a good SS, 3B, and a back end of the rotation starter or bullpen arm (if Pimentel can not control his 2nd and third pitches).

 

Royals: I really think the Royals are going to make a push for someone that can help anchor their rotation. Hopefully Melvin can trick the Royals into thinking that Gallardo is a #1 type of a pitcher and can get some of the pieces that were traded away back. Not sure what the Royals would give up but there is a lot to choose from.

 

Angels: With the departure of Santana more than likely going to happen this could be a move they will make. Possibly Segura, Cowart, Richards, and another prospect for Gallardo?

 

Mariners: Not sure they should be looking for pitching more so offense than pitching at this point in time but they have some nice pieces that would be good to great to get in a Gallardo trade.

 

Dodgers: Not sure they have enough prospects to make this trade.

 

Yankees: Some of the shine on some of the Yankee prospects have washed off right now and I am not sure they will have what it takes to pull a trade off for Gallardo.

 

I don't see any of the NL Central teams willing to give up key prospects or enough of them to get Gallardo.

 

Rangers: They will still have a hole in their rotation and I am not sure on how sold they are on Feliz being in the rotation he may return to the bullpen after this year. Obvious prospects being Olt, Profar, and Perez who would interest the Brewers.

 

A's: This would be a Beane move but I am not sure he will give up the prospects needed to get Gallardo.

 

Rays: Gallardo maybe to expensive for the Rays but then again maybe not. Again like the Royals there is a lot to choose from here.

 

Braves: Teheran is really the only piece that makes sense here from the Braves.

 

Tigers: I believe the Tigers would be all over this and would give up their young 3B in Castellanos but I am not sure just Castellanos would be enough for Gallardo. Not sure what else the Tigers have.

 

Blue Jays: This would be a move I could see the Blue Jays doing but I am not all that familiar with the Blue Jays farm system.

[RockCoCougars]

I'd definitely look at it, but think that it's highly doubtful to happen. Gallardo is a solid top of the rotation guy, but I don't think that he's a true ace like Sheets was or Greinke is. He's very dependent on how well his curve is working in any particular game. If he's on, he's a stud, if not he's usually not that great. I guess that I'm a bit more cynical than the average fan when it comes to the prospects for 2013 and 2014. Bottom line, if the team is not competing then, in 2015, either Gallardo has been very good and the Brewers are in another pending free agent pickle, or he's been ineffective and/or hurt and his contract is looking bad, not to mention that he will be three years older.

[PrinceEatMeat]

As I said in the Greinke thread. Gallardo has a 3.72 ERA, 16 quality starts, has gone 6 IP or more in all but 3 of his starts, and has 122 K in 121 IP. I think he's having a great year. Right in line with his previous seasons. The offense and bullpen have just really screwed his W-L record. Trading Gallardo would be really stupid. Obviously he isn't looking good tonight, but that's just 1 start. He's been very, very good since his slow April. He's been basically just as good this season as he was in previous years. He's a solid top of the rotation pitcher that we need. We can't afford to trade him away. He's under contract for 2 more years, with an option for a 3rd year, at a reasonable price. I think it would be absolutely foolish to consider trading him right now, especially with the lack of proven pitchers we'll have with Greinke, Marcum, and Wolf all gone after this year.

[zzzmanwitz]

Couldn't have been better said PrinceEatMeat. Some of the posters here are worried about marketability of this team if we traded someone like Ramirez who is a former Cub and was just signed this season. What would we be telling fans if we traded away basically the only upper tier starting pitcher the Brewers have developed in the last 10 years? Gallardo has been very good this year, no reason to look at trading him.

[adambr2]

Gallardo is a good, solid, #2 type pitcher IMO. Short of being an ace, but he's not a middle of the rotation guy, and one outing tonight doesn't change that.

 

I'd consider it because Gallardo probably has a lot of value, is only signed for 2 more years anyway (although with an option for a 3rd), and I don't think we're going to be competitive for the next two years anyway. I'd have to be pretty blown away, though.

 

I don't think that it's something that the Brewers will consider, because of their usual "reload but not rebuild" mentality. I would be very surprised if they don't try to put things in place in this offseason with being a contender in 2013 in mind.

 

So if you want to blow the whole thing up and start from scratch, sure, trade Gallardo. But I highly doubt they'd go that route or even consider it.

[3and2Fastball]

Gallardo really is a good solid #3 pitcher on a contending team, maybe a #2. Alot of fans just think of him as "the ace of the team" and when he doesn't live up to that, they get frustrated.

 

He's a 113 ERA+ guy, 3.65 ERA, 1.240 WHIP....he pretty consistently gets those numbers and on a team with a couple of real aces he'd be one of the best #3 starters in baseball (Vogelsong, Cliff Lee etc).... some of us (myself included) thought he'd turn the corner this year and be a Cy Young candidate. He is what he is....

 

He's (literally) the least of our pitching worries. He's durable, he's tough, he can hit a little, he has a 2.08 ERA postseason ERA in 26 innings, he's under an extremely team friendly ($6 million a year for his production is freakin' great in this day and age) contract through 2015.

 

After Braun, Gallardo is the last Brewer I'd trade

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/gallayo01.shtml

[adambr2]

I think it's a little much to say it would be stupid to trade him. It would be really extreme, yes, and be a pretty big statement about the rebuilding state of the team. If you traded Gallardo, you would want the highest upside prospects, no need for them to be even close to MLB ready. It would be a strategy, though, just not one I ever see them doing.

 

I do not understand, though, why when people suggest trading somebody, people rebut by posting their numbers and saying, "Well, they're really good." Well of course they are. That's why other team's would give us a lot for them. Good players tend to get a lot more back in trade than bad players.

[jjfanec]

If we trade Gallardo at what point does Braun start demanding a trade? I can see one of the best players in baseball wanting to be on the worst team in baseball for the next few years

[adambr2]

If we trade Gallardo at what point does Braun start demanding a trade? I can see one of the best players in baseball wanting to be on the worst team in baseball for the next few years

 

That's a fair point and probably a pretty strong reason for why the Brewers prefer to reload rather than a full rebuild. Braun is in the prime of his career and probably has no interest in wasting those years playing for 60 win teams.

[3and2Fastball]

it is simply not Mark A or Doug Melvin's MO to do a complete rebuild... they will try to reload for 2013 or 2014 at the very latest

[NievesNoNO]

Gallardo is my favorite Brewer right now so I'd be disappointed if he left. That said, he has immense value and I'd definitely listen. Say they bring back a couple young starters for Greinke and then get blown away with an offer for Hart and move him for a young arm. Now you have the making of some pitching depth, albeit young and inexperienced, that maybe you consider moving Gallardo.

 

I think right now he could bring back Profar. Maybe if the Angels land Greinke the Brewers could come back to Texas and start talking Gallardo?

 

Right now I'd offer him straight up for Wil Myers.

 

It would take a ton to move him right now. He's going to have to be the ace of the staff next year and while it doesn't seem likely he still has time to become a true ace type.

[jjfanec]

it is simply not Mark A or Doug Melvin's MO to do a complete rebuild... they will try to reload for 2013 or 2014 at the very latest

 

It is very GM's and Owner's MO to completely rebuild. What teams have really done this? The Astros are currently doing it and Oakland has kind of done it. Have we seen the complete rebuild work well? I am asking because I just dont know.

 

If I were Braun there is no way I would want to waste my prime on a team that doesnt have any hope at all. The prospects for Gallardo would have to be really close to the majors not A ball guys

[SoCal Brew Crew Fan]

We're only one more thread from finishing the complete set of 25 "trade or DFA xyz Brewer player". Maybe I'll start the Braun one. He did go 0 for 3 tonight.

[adambr2]

We're only one more thread from finishing the complete set of 25 "trade or DFA xyz Brewer player". Maybe I'll start the Braun one. He did go 0 for 3 tonight.

 

I don't think anyone has suggested trading Zack Greinke yet.

[NievesNoNO]

it is simply not Mark A or Doug Melvin's MO to do a complete rebuild... they will try to reload for 2013 or 2014 at the very latest

 

It is very GM's and Owner's MO to completely rebuild. What teams have really done this? The Astros are currently doing it and Oakland has kind of done it. Have we seen the complete rebuild work well? I am asking because I just dont know.

 

If I were Braun there is no way I would want to waste my prime on a team that doesnt have any hope at all. The prospects for Gallardo would have to be really close to the majors not A ball guys

 

I would say the Rays did it. I'm not sure they intended to do it by being flat awful for so many years but that's how it worked. Houston seems to be down the same path. Stock piling lower level minors players and just letting their MLB roster suck for high picks. I would say the Royals and Indians current rosters are that of very close to being complete rebuilds over the last 5-6 years. The Orioles finally decided a few years back they were done playing the 'lets see what over priced free agent we can sign to be average' game and have moved in the right direction with most of their own young talent.

 

I'm not sure you could say decisively that a complete rebuild works. You better have the right people in place and pick the correct players or you can be horrible for a long time if your draft picks bust and you trade away your only talent for busted prospects. If you miss too many times you'll have no talent to restock with. See Pittsburgh and the Royals from about the mid-1990's to last season. It beats trying to get to .500 every year though. At least if you have a bunch of new young guys every year you feel like there's hope.

[ninja33]

it is simply not Mark A or Doug Melvin's MO to do a complete rebuild... they will try to reload for 2013 or 2014 at the very latest

 

It is very GM's and Owner's MO to completely rebuild. What teams have really done this? The Astros are currently doing it and Oakland has kind of done it. Have we seen the complete rebuild work well? I am asking because I just dont know.

 

If I were Braun there is no way I would want to waste my prime on a team that doesnt have any hope at all. The prospects for Gallardo would have to be really close to the majors not A ball guys

 

i think tampa bay has the model people kind of look at when talking about this. but for them it was much more of a "finally build" than "rebuild".

[dlk9s]

Can we rename this thread, "Knee-Jerk Reaction Trade Suggestions?"

[chickinbrickin]

Gallardo is my favorite Brewer right now so I'd be disappointed if he left. That said, he has immense value and I'd definitely listen. Say they bring back a couple young starters for Greinke and then get blown away with an offer for Hart and move him for a young arm. Now you have the making of some pitching depth, albeit young and inexperienced, that maybe you consider moving Gallardo.

 

I think right now he could bring back Profar. Maybe if the Angels land Greinke the Brewers could come back to Texas and start talking Gallardo?

 

Right now I'd offer him straight up for Wil Myers.

 

It would take a ton to move him right now. He's going to have to be the ace of the staff next year and while it doesn't seem likely he still has time to become a true ace type.

 

While I am not fully convinced he will become a true ace I still think he has plenty of time to put it together. Yo is only 26. He has put up better numbers than Verlander did at this point in his career. Verlander didn't really put it all together until his 26 and 27 year old seasons in 2009 and 2010, and now look at him.

 

Yes, Yo doesn't quite have the stuff Verlander does, but he just needs to learn to trust his stuff. The only thing holding him back is the fact he tries to nibble to much and doesn't just go after guys.