Time to trade Gallardo?

[82brewcrew11]

"Yoga is still in control for 2 1/2 years. That is very valuable. LAA gave use 3 very good prospects for 1/2 year of a ZG. I know ZG does not equal Yoga, but they are not that far apart. What is the extra two years of Yoga worth?

 

 

I'm guessing not Davidson and Skaggs plus others.

[jackailius]

If we could get Scaggs and Davidson for Yo and Rodriguez I would be thrilled. Scaggs is a lefty with three plus pitches and could be our ace in the near future. And did i meantion he is a lefty? Davidson could be our 3rd baseman of the future allowing us to trade Aram as a salary dump or add some $ and get a decent return for him. I think with these two in place you could hypothetically see a really good "core" come 2015.

[Yount19]

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2013/06/rockies-interested-in-gallardo-garza-gregg.html

 

 

Add the Rockies to the mix..

[82brewcrew11]

I just read a Buster Olney tweet saying the D'Backs view Gallardo favorably becsuse he is signed beyond this year and because he was born in Mexico, which they consider marketable for them. He followed that up with a tweet that the D'Backs are willing to trade Skaggs "in the right deal". Interesting. Probably makes too much sense to actually happen.

[JohnBriggs12]

The Brewers are in a strong position. If it's Skaggs and Davidson they want, they can leverage interest in Gallardo from other teams. Of course Arizona isn't going to put their best offer out there for another few weeks and it's not like the Brewers don't have guys themselves that can sweeten the pot beyond K-Rod.

[Kelbysdaddy]

The rockies really have nothing to offer. Arenado would be awesome but he's too big a part of their current team. Arizona is the way to go. Skaggs /Davidson / holmberg or meo would be nice.

[SRB]

Skaggs was the BA #12 prospect in baseball entering the season. I really don't think Gallardo is the caliber of pitcher that brings Skaggs into the discussion (maybe a few years ago based on potential, but he has never taken the expected step forward and is having a mediocre season...)

 

Something like Davidson/Eaton would be a pretty great return.

[nate82]

Skaggs was the BA #12 prospect in baseball entering the season. I really don't think Gallardo is the caliber of pitcher that brings Skaggs into the discussion (maybe a few years ago based on potential, but he has never taken the expected step forward and is having a mediocre season...)

 

Something like Davidson/Eaton would be a pretty great return.

 

Then the deal does not get done as that isn't something that Melvin is going to do to move Gallardo. If the Brewers do not get something at least close to what the Rays received in dealing Shields I don't see Melvin pulling the trigger on a trade. Davidson is a need but Eaton not so much as the Brewers already have an over crowded OF plus I believe Eaton is just coming back from an injury he incurred in spring training. The latest reports have Skaggs being available and the Dbacks having a rather high interest in Gallardo.

 

For any deal to be done it is going to have to include Skaggs from the Dbacks otherwise I see Melvin holding onto Gallardo. I have no interest at all in Eaton the Dbacks can keep him.

[brewcrewdue80]

I just read a Buster Olney tweet saying the D'Backs view Gallardo favorably becsuse he is signed beyond this year and because he was born in Mexico, which they consider marketable for them. He followed that up with a tweet that the D'Backs are willing to trade Skaggs "in the right deal". Interesting. Probably makes too much sense to actually happen.

 

MLBTR Olney also:

•Olney also reports that Arizona had brief discussions with the Cubs regarding Samardzija. When the Cubs inquired into the availability of top Dbacks prospects Archie Bradley and Tyler Skaggs, however, the clubs ceased their talks. Nevertheless, Olney says that others in baseball do not believe that Skaggs is untouchable.

 

 

Sounds like Baltimore, their top 2 pitching prospects aren't available in trade. Rightfully so.

My guess is their interest with Gallardo is in tune with the Brewers' need for a 3b prospect like Davidson. Eaton has no business coming over to our team in trade.

 

You would likely look at Davidson/Holmberg then definitely in this trade for Gallardo. After that I don't know who else is included.

 

I'd probably look at Chafin and Drury. More just in the lines of two players likely to make a ML roster down the road. Chafin can be a Lefty BP guy that I could see flipping down the road for a better prospect. Drury would just be a likely Backup at 1b/3b utility. Useful for Morris/Davidson era to spell a game or two(Morris vs. tough lefty) and as a righty power bench bat.

[Bnowell4evr]

San Diego could put one heck of a package together if we were willing to wait a bit longer for the talent to arrive in Milwaukee. They are loaded with pitching prospects and could be used as leverage to force Arizona to give up Holmberg and Davidson in addition to Skaggs if they really want Gallardo.

 

We're in a great position with a bidding war possibly breaking out between all the NL West teams.

[narwhalattack]

San Diego could put one heck of a package together if we were willing to wait a bit longer for the talent to arrive in Milwaukee. They are loaded with pitching prospects and could be used as leverage to force Arizona to give up Holmberg and Davidson in addition to Skaggs if they really want Gallardo.

 

We're in a great position with a bidding war possibly breaking out between all the NL West teams.

 

But one would think that the Brewers FO would want MLB ready prospects. Typically in trades they've went for guys who are close to contributing in the majors.

[brewcrewdue80]

San Diego could put one heck of a package together if we were willing to wait a bit longer for the talent to arrive in Milwaukee. They are loaded with pitching prospects and could be used as leverage to force Arizona to give up Holmberg and Davidson in addition to Skaggs if they really want Gallardo.

 

We're in a great position with a bidding war possibly breaking out between all the NL West teams.

 

But one would think that the Brewers FO would want MLB ready prospects. Typically in trades they've went for guys who are close to contributing in the majors.

 

Narwal, I thought Melvin had said in that original trade/becoming sellers interview that (higher talent)prospects that are 2-3 years away are kind of in line with what they are asking for.

 

This of course makes sense as Players that can help a ML team now/today become questionable as to why they trade that player away if that's the case unless it's due to position blockage.

[narwhalattack]

Yes, but guys like Fried and Ross, who would be the ideal guys to trade for, are more than 2-3 years away from the majors, I believe.

[brewcrewdue80]

Yes, but guys like Fried and Ross, who would be the ideal guys to trade for, are more than 2-3 years away from the majors, I believe.

 

They both are pitching in A ball now. One would imagine if they are talented that means AA next season. AAA to Callup the following season barring any kind of injury. That's 2 seasons with a 3rd if slower progress. Wouldn't seem to longer than 3 years. And I don't even imagine it takes 3 years for either to make it.

 

That would be a great haul for Gallardo Fried and Ross. Nothing more need to be added in that trade.

[SRB]

Then the deal does not get done as that isn't something that Melvin is going to do to move Gallardo. If the Brewers do not get something at least close to what the Rays received in dealing Shields I don't see Melvin pulling the trigger on a trade. Davidson is a need but Eaton not so much as the Brewers already have an over crowded OF plus I believe Eaton is just coming back from an injury he incurred in spring training. The latest reports have Skaggs being available and the Dbacks having a rather high interest in Gallardo.

 

For any deal to be done it is going to have to include Skaggs from the Dbacks otherwise I see Melvin holding onto Gallardo. I have no interest at all in Eaton the Dbacks can keep him.

 

Just because a few of our "top" prospects are OF doesn't mean we are by any means over-crowded with MLB-caliber starting OF, other than Braun and Gomez (Aoki is good but a short-term piece). I don't actually know much about Eaton though, I just think two top-100 prospects would be a pretty solid return.

[paul253]

Just because a few of our "top" prospects are OF doesn't mean we are by any means over-crowded with MLB-caliber starting OF,

 

But when we have all of these other holes to fill, namely starting pitching, third base and maybe even first base I don't think you should be using the few decent trade chips you have to acquire players at positions you already have mostly covered. 2/3 of your starting OF will be back next year and Aoki could easily be back as well. Schafer Davis and Gindl are all players who have seen time in the OF this year and are under control for several seasons. Next season Kentrail Davis will be at AAA as well. While none of these guys profile as all-stars and may even top off as platoon players, they are good enough while the team is rebuilding.

 

The fact is if we don't find better pitchers you could throw Mays, Mantle and Aaron out there and this team will still have a hard time competing. If Melvin trades Gallardo for a package that includes an outfielder I'll be furious.

[brewcrewdue80]

The issue with Eaton SRB by Nate I'm sure doesn't deal with our OF situation as it deals with acquiring an OF who's 5'8" tall and offers no power potential to be a long term OF option on our team. He profiles out towards being hopefully a younger version of Aoki himself. It's no guarantee though that he will achieve Aoki's numbers.

I'd rather not, like Nate, find out if Eaton can continue to buck the odds of success in return for Gallardo with other options already to be worked with.

[TheCrew07]

When trading you are trying to fill organizational needs, it's not like the draft where you take BPA. Given the team's OF depth I wouldn't want to trade for an OF unless we traded both Aoki and Gomez away. Then I'd consider someone like Eaton or Pederson.

[brewcrewdue80]

You're right Crew. But there are other avenues that can be opened by acquiring Pederson/Eaton that either makes a trade of Gomez or Aoki possible. Or Like I proposed, take Pederson and then trade him to another team that has interest for him for a player you have interest in. The Mets proposal.

 

With a numerous amount of trades, the club may have an entire new look to it, but find itself with a core of players via the trade that competes sooner than the outlook it presents today. Take Eaton/Davidson for Gallardo. Trade Aoki then for a SP prospect. Trade ARam for Pederson. Trade Gomez offseason for 2 more SP prospects. Sure it still doesn't solve the crowded OF situation but average OF or above average impact OF which do you prefer? This certain set of moves could keep the club from being pretenders in the foreseeable future to contending in just 1 year's passing time. But that is optimistic and believing we get $1.25 in trade on the $1 for our players. And that all these players become impact everyday players and not flameouts like so many do.

[Austin Tatious]

Gallardo is only 27 and a proven starting pitcher, a workhorse, who is good for 15 wins, year-in-year-out on a contender. Prospects come and go.

 

Regarding the D backs, Davidson's profile sounds alot like one Mat Gamel circa 2009, good line drive hitter to all fields with a glove that's a work in progress. Skaggs has a high ceiling, but you just don't know. Yo is proven, and still young.

 

Melvin is saying he needs to be blown away, and I applaud him.

 

I say it takes Skaggs and Davidson, and maybe a lower minor leaguer. If need be, Milwaukee sends back someone else like a K Rod and maybe a minor leaguer we can live with to balance it out.

 

If the Dodgers want to outbid, have at it. Zach Lee, Pederson, and their young 3b all look interesting. The point is none of these young guys is proven, and a certain percentage of prospects are flat out fool's gold.

[TheCrew07]

Gallardo is only 27...

True, and his max FB velocity has already fallen from 97 all the way to 93 already, his ave FB velocity is only 90 MPH, very mediocre for a RHP.

 

...and a proven starting pitcher...

Hyperbole, what value does that actually provide? Does it somehow make him pitch longer into games? Make him more effective?

 

...a workhorse,..

He is pitching less than 6 innings per outing this year, in fact exactly 5.76 innings per outing. In 2012 he was at 6.18 and in 2011 6.27.. what's the trend here? He had the potential be "the guy", but never got there and now his skills are declining.

 

...who is good for 15 wins,..

More hyperbole. He could do that all by himself?

 

..Prospects come and go

Even more hyperbole. So do MLB players, except they come and go at a much greater cost.

 

You certainly don't look to give Gallardo away for nothing but we also don't want to hang onto him until he has no value. At this point Yovani doesn't have the control to be one of those guys who's going to be super effective into his mid 30s. He has always nibbled too much even when he had a plus FB.

 

He's certainly our #1, but he's also not a guy who you can count on to even give the team 6 innings per start. He's leaving 3+ innings for the bullpen every time out on average. That's #3/4 type IP/start numbers, not to mention his declining K/9.

 

I was initially not in favor of moving Yo, but as the season progressed it's become very clear that his skills have continued to slip, and I don't want to be left with no top of the rotation starter as he continues to fade. I've previously posted the type of return I'd be interested in and firmly believe that now is the time to strike. This season is lost but there might be a team out there who thinks that Yo has a couple of good years left in him and if so we need to take advantage of the situation.

 

If his career trend continues next year he's going to have little trade value, who is going to want to trade for an figure salary starting pitcher who only goes 5.5 innings per start?

[Austin Tatious]

OMG thank God you are not our GM because Melvin is not as short sighted as you are. Someone like you, with a sky is falling mentality, could never have pried away Segura last season with all the Debbie Downer stuff. No hyperbole, that's what you are engaged in. Gallardo's velocity has fallen off a bit this season and he did have a stretch earlier where he wasn't pitching well. That's not everything, son. You look at his overall track record, not a stretch of a few starts where he struggled or else you will get robbed. He is trending better again except for his last start. You look at someone's overall track record, not a short snapshot.

 

Yovani was never a 97 mph guy with any regularity, so just ignore that. That was never his game. If you want to exaggerate then your whole point can just be thrown out. Let's operate in the real world. If you want to be taken seriously, talk seriously. His velocity dropoff is way, way, way overblown. It's slight, and you act like that trend will continue. If it did, he would be throwing 83 in a few years. Get real, kid. As pitchers age, the ones with savvy, like Yovani, make up with with it by knowing how to pitch. Listen to the pitcher that know how to pitch with experience. The Seavers, the Carltons, they will explain it to you.

 

You dismiss the idea that Gallardo doesn't credit for being a 15 game winner year after year? I don't even know what to say. You have to understand the sport and pitching. Certainly there are guys that go out there every 5th day and know how to win games for you. Yovani is that type of guy and he knows how to do it. Some guys do and some guys don't.

 

No hyperbole on prospects. The vast majority never amount to a hill of beans. And I'm talking about the ones that are supposed to be good. You don't trade proven studs for fool's gold. Melvin did it right for Greinke and he will do it right for Gallardo. Last year Texas wouldn't give up Olt for Greinke and last I heard Olt was struggling as Melvin alluded to. Middlebrooks is foundering now for Boston. These guys aren't sure bets, Davidson included.

 

Yovani is a proven guy and will continue to be a solid starter. Only a complete buffoon gives him away. Mevin, luckily, understands value, and Milwaukee will get value for Gallardo. That's just how it will be, and I don't really need to debate it with faux accusations of hyperbole.

[danzig6767]

Gallardo is only 27 and a proven starting pitcher, a workhorse, who is good for 15 wins, year-in-year-out on a contender.

 

He's never been a workhorse starter because it often takes him to many pitches to get outs, even when he's having a good start.

 

He is a very solid starter though and his best selling point in trade value is arguably his contract status. A team trading for him isn't getting a rental, they'd get two more seasons. That ups his value quite a bit.

[Austin Tatious]

Good points, Danizig. His contract value helps.

 

Also, keep in mind, he still gets to around an average of 190 IP per year....I can't deny that he does labor a bit...but keep in mind, he misses a ton of bats. His strikeout numbers are impressive, and his won/loss percentage and career ERA are impressive. At an average of 190 IP and 15 wins per year, you have to consider that a winner and a workhorse. At age 27, you have to expect more to come. The one year he got hurt was '08, it was a knee, not an arm. He goes out there, takes the ball and produces. In a down year, he is 6-7 with a 4.20 and is on an uptick on an awful team extrapolating to 66 wins right now with the entire middle of the order impotent right now.

 

This guy is marketable despite the laughable velocity shrieking.

[paul253]

The other thing about Gallardo is that you don't want to hang onto him too long like Melvin has a tendency to do (Axford, McGehee, Hart, etc). He is showing signs this year of dropping off. It may be a fluke but if it happens again next year you won't get nearly as much for him as you would now. I realize guys like Skaggs and Davidson are "just prospects" but at some point every player is just a prospect. Gallardo was just a prospect at one point. A reasonable person would look at this franchise and realize they are two to three years away from contending so you need to try to find guys that could help two to three years from now. It could be Gallardo but you'd have to resign him and give him something like $12 million a year. More likely though it won't be so take him and move him for players that will be able to help in two to three years.

 

I am not a "the sky is falling" type person. I am a "the sky has been dropping pretty steadily the past two years and nothing in the organization makes me believe it's going to stop so let's see if we can change that but acquiring high ceiling talent" type person.