Time to trade Gallardo?

[HiAndTight]

I'm just floating this idea around.

 

I sincerely doubt it will happen, but I think it's the type of trade we should at LEAST consider. A pitcher of his ability who's eligible to be a FA after 2014, 2015 with the team options.

 

If we're going to sell, and I think we should, I think we should sell everyone and up until now I've been excluding Braun, Lucroy, Gallardo...

 

But if you're trading Greinke and NOT re-signing him, I don't see this team being competitive over the next 2-3 years. So basically I don't see them winning while they have Gallardo. And if that's the case I don't see any use in wasting his prime years and his last years with the Brewers sans an extension on a team that he may make a 68 win team instead of a 65 win team.

 

If Gallardo could net us an A prospect+a couple B to B+ type prospects along with

Greinke, Hart, Aram(paying 10 million and the way he's bounced back), Axford as it makes little sense to keep a closer on a 100 loss team as he starts to get paid more and more...

 

I think we could get 6-7 legit IMPACT players in the minors just for Gallardo, Greinke and Hart, plus the next two drafts in which we'd likely be competing for the top pick in each draft, I think you end up wasting a LOT less of Braun's career in Milwaukee than you do if you just keep trying to hold on.

 

 

I know this will likely illicit pretty adamant negative responses, but if you could pry away a guy like Profar and Perez for Gallardo, or maybe a guy like Skaggs and a couple B prospects from the D-backs, or just a couple elite prospects for a legit #2 pitcher for 3 years at a good salary, I think it's worth considering.

 

Otherwise you're talking about getting ready to lose Gallardo the next time the brewers have a team capable of contending we'd just be where we are right now with Greinke.

 

Unless of course the Brewers re-sign both Greinke and then extend Yo for another 2 years. I'm just trying to think big picture and what is most likely to get us back to the WS CALIBER team we had last year, and again, while I'm sure I'll be in the vast minority, we'd have potentially the best farm system in the game in -3 years if we made the right decisions.

 

Just a "what is," type scenario. Gallardo+Hart+Wolf(dump) for Profar and Leonys Martin would anyone say no to that?

 

Turn around, trade Greinke for a slightly less impressive return.

Marcum when he comes back and shows he's healthy. With so many buyers and so few sellers out there, Hart, Yo, Greinke and Marcum could net us as many as 6-7 of next years top 50 prospects. Add that to K-Rod, Aram(if we eat a big chunk of his salary, he's again hitting and playing well), a top 5 pick this year, a top 5 pick next year, and probably a top 5-10 pick the following year, not only should our own prospects have a couple years under their belt, but we should have a tidal wave of prospects ready to come up, many of them if things go well in the top 10-15.

 

 

Just something I think should be at least considered if we are going to truly sell and truly try and REBUILD....the link report will be a helluva lot more fun to watch than the Brewers games, but it's that way almost right now. I want 100 wins and a WS, not for Braun to go out like Yount without really getting a chance the last 10 years of his career.

 

And while I think Yo is REALLY good, I don't think he's a true Ace, yet as good as he's been, he could net us one or two with the potential to be aces in a trade right now.

[Dollarbill13]

I think to trade Gallardo, you'd have to be offered a top 10 type prospect like a Profar or Machado plus another decent prospect. I'm not sure anyone would trade that for him, though, since his BB% as jumped so much this year. If he was putting up the same numbers as last year, I think you probably could get that.

 

From a business perspective, I'm not sure they want to "not compete" in 2013 & 2014. If they finish as badly as they are on pace for this season, they could be looking at < 2.5 million fans next year, which would be a significant hit to revenues.

[JosephC]

I don't think the Brewers are in a good position to be real competitive in 2013-2014 as it currently sits. Certainly appears at this point that Greinke and Marcum will both be gone. Last time the Brewers lost two "top" starters was Sabathia and Sheets and they went from 90 wins down to 80 and 77 wins the next two seasons. And while there were some offensive question marks with the 2009 team, I think the core of that offense (Fielder, Braun, Hart, Cameron, Hardy) was more promising than what the Brewers figure to have out there in 2013 (mainly because I can see Ramirez having a big falloff fairly soon due to age/injury).

 

But there is a difference between being "not competitive" and fielding a AAA team masquarading as a major league team. I have no problem with trading some key players and rebuilding, but I don't see any reason to trade off good players that are controlled at reasonable salaries for three-plus seasons. I don't think the Brewers should give any consideration to trading Gallardo. If they would, the 2013 Brewer rotation stacks up as Fiers, Estrada, Thornburg, Narveson, Peralta. Would anybody expect them to even win 70 games with a rotation like that (combined with the outlook for the rest of the ballclub)? Certainly they could pick up a starter or two in trades or free agency, but with many big market teams figuring to be heavily in the market for starters the Brewers will probably only get scraps to pick from and how many trade chips do they have in their system that would return a solid #3 starter or better? I just don't see anyway the Brewers could justify trading Gallardo considering the length of time they control him. I don't think it would be a good move from either a baseball perspective or a business perspective.

[HiAndTight]

I think to trade Gallardo, you'd have to be offered a top 10 type prospect like a Profar or Machado plus another decent prospect. I'm not sure anyone would trade that for him, though, since his BB% as jumped so much this year. If he was putting up the same numbers as last year, I think you probably could get that.

 

From a business perspective, I'm not sure they want to "not compete" in 2013 & 2014. If they finish as badly as they are on pace for this season, they could be looking at < 2.5 million fans next year, which would be a significant hit to revenues.

 

 

Yeah, but it'd still be more net revenue. We're going to blow away a revenue record this year, and next year we're going to have 20 million in TV money(could be 25) and Radio money coming in.

 

So if you traded Hart, Aram, Wolf and ate lets say 12 million in salaries, Gallardo, Greinke, K-Rod, Axford, and Marcum(not to mention, fillers like Veras, Kottars, Gomez/Morgan as both have value, Weeks if you can get someone to eat that whole contract, otherwise, he's just too talented, decline Gonzalez and go with the bare minimum, we could easily see a payroll in the 65-70 range, if that, and we'd be making a LOT more money than we've been making. Hell, at that figure, I think revenue sharing and the new TV deal would pick that up without cover the payroll.

 

And we'll still have draws. Braun, Lucroy, Fiers(who I said before he got his first start COULD still turn this season around with a Cal Eldred circa 1992 type season...and he's looking up to the task).

 

 

I STILL don't think they get Profar for Gallardo straight up. I really think too little of what Profar is. When an article comes out with the best possible 25 man roster and Andrus is on it and they have a link talking about how he won't be the best on the TEAM next year?

 

 

 

And I don't care about attendance. We'll finish above 2 million because we're Milwaukee for the next 3+ years. By then just imagine the talent we could have.

 

Profar, Perez, Skaags as 3 elite prospects and I would say 3-4 more. Plus what we have and what we have is pretty good. Not great, but solid.

 

Run out a lineup of

OF-Braun/Schafer/Aoki/Gindl and Gomez(I still want to hold onto him, he just simply looks different this year, as though at 26 he's starting to get it, and he's been hampered by injury all year long. Had that not happened, I think he'd be putting up a 4.0 WAR type season. I really do. He's just showing his a smarter player.

 

IF-

1B/Gamel;2B/Weeks;SS;3B Green

C-Lucroy/Maldonado

Rotation

Fiers

Thornburg

Estrada

Peralta

Narveson

 

There is some entertainment value there. That's probably a 65 win team, which again, gives us ANOTHER top pick, and probably one more after that.

 

And the O's may be perfect for Gallardo. Bundy for Gallardo. Whatever it is. Maybe it's Hart and Gallardo for Profar as the Rangers need the pitching. Christ, I'd give up Marcum+Gallardo for Profar/Perez and Martin at this point just because I think Profar has the ability to be a SS unlike any other in the game right now, a 15-18 Hr hitter who bats .300, has the ability to carry a .380-400 OBP, hit for power, speed and best of all is already considered a better defender than Andrus by the age of 19? That's a guy you can build around with if Weeks can be Weeks, Braun, Lucroy, Gamel doing what I expect, spend some money to be spent when we're a 85 win team just bursting with prospect, selling 3.3 million.

 

 

Look, I HATE-HATE to trade Gallardo and if it were up to ME, we'd simply spend the money for Greinke, we'd bring back Gonzalez next year and perhaps trade for Jamey Carroll as a utility guy and I'd go with a starting rotation of'

Greinke/Gallardo/Thornburg/Fiers/Estrada

Lineup of

Weeks

Aoki/Gomez

Braun

Aram

Hart/Gomez when Hart plays 1st

Lucroy

Gamel-HE WILL HIT in the big leagues and he WILL be a 3-4 WAR player. I hate saying things with absolutes, but if he's healthy, he WILL do those things.

Gonzalez

 

Couple tweaks to the BP. Maybe a Grant Balfour to fill in for K-Rod, whatever, maybe Mark Rogers comes up and he proves that he's a viable late inning guy, Parra, Manzanillo..etc..etc..

 

 

But that all rests on Greinke. I don't believe we can win in today's game with out at least a great 1-2, and I think those two give us more than just about any other team has. Fiers I think is just "that guy." His fastball looks like a 95 MPH fastball and he locates his off-speed so well.

 

I've been calling him 1992 Eldred since before he got called up(just on a whim, basically, a team like us needs an X-factor to push them to the race in Sept.

 

But if they get too far out....sell EVERYTHING, build up a MASSIVE stockpile of young talent, plus perhaps the 1st-5 picks in the next 3 drafts and I HONESTLY believe the Brewers could be this years Washington Nationals.

 

But instead of spending money on Jason Werth, we'd spend it on Stephen Drew to play SS or someone of that caliber. Hope by then you have one more impact bat and 50 pct of your promising pitchers in AA/AAA pan out and we should be a REAL threat.

 

 

 

And I know, I know, the thought of moving Gallardo makes me sick to my stomach. But I really believe he's peaked as a #2 and if you make a trade with AZ for instance....a POWER arm already dominating in AA, Andrew Chafin+Matt Davidson who's more than passing the test at 21 in AA, you'd have probably a top 5 prospect, a top 30 prospect and a top 50 prospect. And the D-backs are good enough to get into the playoffs with Gallardo.

 

I don't think they give up a guy like Skaggs or even Bradley for Greinke straight up.

 

 

I just think we need to be EXTREME. Not overpay Marcum, watch him become Suppan or hit the DL and then spend up to 120 on Edwin Jackson and think we've done anything.

 

Although, we COULD sign Jackson to a smart deal and sign Drew who for some reason I thought was a FA the year after next, and who should come extremely cheap relatively speaking. 5 years 40 million or so.

But you only do that if you believe in Fiers, Thornburg or another can truly contribute next year...and I'm sold on both. I think Fiers is so deceptive that he can be a 3.40 type ERA pitcher and Thornburg so talented he can be as good as Gallardo, if not better. Not next year, next year I expect early Sheets like seasons.

 

 

 

But again, that would be the middle ground. I say you blow it up and start all over again, or you pony up, sign Greinke, and take the savings from Wolf, K-Rod, Morgan, Marcum and others, plus additional revenue to bring in Drew and put together a team better than this year with some help(and frankly, with the new revenue coming in, I'm upping what I've literally been saying since 2008 when I said 95 last year, 100 this year and 110 next year, I think with the forbes release on how much money we made last year and are projected to make this year plus the additional revenues, that's entirely reasonable. But if it goes bad, you've got a HUGE payroll for this market, one that can only be sustained in good times and not with 2.2 million in attendance.

 

By the way a quick shot out to Mark A. It's absolutely baffling how he's been able to make the type of money and pull this team into an area in which 120 after a nearly 110 million dollar budget, with the money from TV, Radio and ticket prices giong up and selling more of them.

 

So go MEGA big with Greinke, and adding a star SS on the cheap having a miserable season due to the ankle, but a full two years should get him easily back into it.

In THAT scenario, I'd run out

Weeks 2B

Aoki(L) CF

Braun-LF

Aram-3B

Hart-RF

Gamel(L)

Lucroy-C

Drew-(SH'er) SS

 

Greinke/Gallardo/Fiers/Thornburg/Estrada/Jackson

 

BP

Axford/Balfour/Manzanillo/Veras/Parra/Wooten/Henderson/Stetter....and so on.

 

 

But that means Greinke signs and you can focus on the other areas on the teams that can be upgraded probably cheaply. Especially with all the money coming off and all the money going ON.

 

Sadly, that option seems to have passed as Greinke's going to get IMO 6 years 145....and he'd have to be convinced we can compete, a tough argument to make without knowing what HE'S going to do, and everything contingent upon him.

 

 

So again, I think just a firesale, rebuild the farm as well as it possibly can be is the way to go with the uncertainty.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

9--

[HiAndTight]

I don't think the Brewers are in a good position to be real competitive in 2013-2014 as it currently sits. Certainly appears at this point that Greinke and Marcum will both be gone. Last time the Brewers lost two "top" starters was Sabathia and Sheets and they went from 90 wins down to 80 and 77 wins the next two seasons. And while there were some offensive question marks with the 2009 team, I think the core of that offense (Fielder, Braun, Hart, Cameron, Hardy) was more promising than what the Brewers figure to have out there in 2013 (mainly because I can see Ramirez having a big falloff fairly soon due to age/injury).

 

But there is a difference between being "not competitive" and fielding a AAA team masquarading as a major league team. I have no problem with trading some key players and rebuilding, but I don't see any reason to trade off good players that are controlled at reasonable salaries for three-plus seasons. I don't think the Brewers should give any consideration to trading Gallardo. If they would, the 2013 Brewer rotation stacks up as Fiers, Estrada, Thornburg, Narveson, Peralta. Would anybody expect them to even win 70 games with a rotation like that (combined with the outlook for the rest of the ballclub)? Certainly they could pick up a starter or two in trades or free agency, but with many big market teams figuring to be heavily in the market for starters the Brewers will probably only get scraps to pick from and how many trade chips do they have in their system that would return a solid #3 starter or better? I just don't see anyway the Brewers could justify trading Gallardo considering the length of time they control him. I don't think it would be a good move from either a baseball perspective or a business perspective.

 

 

What's the point of controlling him for those years if you admit they're not going to be competitive? And they shouldn't even consider it? So if the O's were willing to give up Bundy, the D-backs Bauer/Skaggs/Bradley...they shouldn't consider that?

 

And why would the Brewers be looking to trade BACK for a #3 starter? And fine, we're a 70 win team. Probably worse if we do what I've suggested. But that's a lot better than 77 and 80 wins as at least you're moving in the right direction and could possibly field a WS team in just 3 short years(when Gallardo is a FA by the way, that we control him for so long is what would yield two ELITE grade A prospects).

[Oldcity]

HiAndTight, a suggestion: trim down your posts a bit. You seem to have good things to say, but if others are like me, they find themselves reading for a bit and skipping the rest. Just a good-natured suggestion.

 

Anyway, I'd trade Gallardo for Profar, but I really doubt Texas would. Gallardo has pretty much settled in as a good pitcher, but not elite or even great. I don't think you're getting back a super-elite prospect for that, even one who's still young and cost-controlled.

 

I would be open to trading Gallardo, though, because even if they can't get a Profar, he would still bring back a lot.

[Raw Biz]

HiAndTight, a suggestion: trim down your posts a bit. You seem to have good things to say, but if others are like me, they find themselves reading for a bit and skipping the rest. Just a good-natured suggestion.

 

I was going to say the same thing. You make a lot of good points but a lot is repetitive and some of it just seems like unfiltered rambling off the top of your head, like you're just thinking aloud. Just curious but do you work 3rd shift or something? It seems like a lot of your posts are at 2, 3, 4 am so maybe you're just tired which causes you to ramble?

[Dollarbill13]

I think you completely undermine your post when you say that we've got 3-4 WAR guys with Gomez and Gamel because that would imply that either you think most of our healthy lineup consists of 0 WAR players (Hart, Ramirez, Weeks) or that we could simply take the money from Grienke, Wolf, K-rod, etc. this year and use it toward a pitcher and a shortstop and be right back in the thick of things next year.

 

I also think that a lot of folks on this board completely underestimate how hard it is to built a competitive roster from within. For every Tampa Bay, there are several Royals, Indians, Padres, A's, who are in perpetual rebuilding mode. I really don't want to go back to the days where we win 60 games with the expectation that we'll be World Series contenders in a few years. We did that in the early 2000's. It essentially got us two playoff teams in 5 years. I also don't want to waste three years in the middle of Ryan Braun's prime with a complete rebuild. We might as well just trade Braun then.

[RockCoCougars]

I also think that a lot of folks on this board completely underestimate how hard it is to built a competitive roster from within. For every Tampa Bay, there are several Royals, Indians, Padres, A's, who are in perpetual rebuilding mode. I really don't want to go back to the days where we win 60 games with the expectation that we'll be World Series contenders in a few years. We did that in the early 2000's. It essentially got us two playoff teams in 5 years. I also don't want to waste three years in the middle of Ryan Braun's prime with a complete rebuild. We might as well just trade Braun then.

 

Post of the month. I think that a lot of people here either missed or miss the 90's. It's a nice theory to be able to sell everyone for prospects and 'retool', but this isn't a video game. Prospects flop, and when you trade quality for quantity, your talent base starts getting watered down. If you trade all your major league assets for prospects, you are taking what other teams deem expendable, bottom line. I keep seeing 'so and so isn't available', etc., etc.. And I ask, why then would you want to take 'best offer' or the scraps that other teams don't want? That was Dean Taylor's m.o. and look where it got them. At this point, let's face it, the farm system is in shambles. Even if you are able to move a few guys for a couple of 'Top 100' players, it's still going to be a mess.

 

In my view, this isn't an old team, it's not 1985 or something. Most of the key players on this team are (or should be) in their primes. Obviously a bad bullpen and injuries have sabotaged this season so far, but the only reason that this team will be broken up is basically money. If the Brewers lose all the guys that are rumored to be on the trade market, lets face it, they are likely to be bad for the foreseeable future. In the end, Attanasio needs to decide whether he wants to lay the money out there to keep this team competitive, or they may as well go '97 Florida Marlins and blow the whole thing apart (which has actually proven to be pretty effective).

[3and2Fastball]

It is extremely difficult to build a solid, let alone great, pitching staff in MLB. Losing that many years of Gallardo would hurt, but then again as HiAndTight points out, that is precisely why trading Gallardo would bring us back players of value.

 

In a lot of ways, it is a great idea in theory, however in reality there are a few perhaps insurmountable challenges:

 

1) We have a GM who sincerely believes that you can build a World Series team with the likes of Yuni B as a starting SS! In other words he feels he can "cut corners" in building a team. And further compounding the problem: he was almost proven right!!!! Because of this, Melvin likely feels that he is just a player or two away from striking Gold again...

 

2) Keeping Gallardo, and re-signing Greinke or spending the Greinke money on another impact player will make Melvin feel like they are just a player or two away.

 

3) Ken Rosenthal recently reported that the Brewers do not want to do a complete rebuild, that they feel they are (here it comes again) "just a player or two away from contending again", so if the Brewers deal Greinke it would likely be for "major league ready pitching". (which, honestly, didn't make a lot of sense to me, i.e. why would a contending team trade away MLB ready pitching in a pennant race?)

[HiAndTight]

HiAndTight, a suggestion: trim down your posts a bit. You seem to have good things to say, but if others are like me, they find themselves reading for a bit and skipping the rest. Just a good-natured suggestion.

 

Anyway, I'd trade Gallardo for Profar, but I really doubt Texas would. Gallardo has pretty much settled in as a good pitcher, but not elite or even great. I don't think you're getting back a super-elite prospect for that, even one who's still young and cost-controlled.

 

I would be open to trading Gallardo, though, because even if they can't get a Profar, he would still bring back a lot.

 

 

I would trade Gallardo for Profar, but some have said that I'm underestimating Greinke by suggesting Profar for Greinke straight up. So I didn't even want to get into the Gallardo for Profar argument.

[HiAndTight]

HiAndTight, a suggestion: trim down your posts a bit. You seem to have good things to say, but if others are like me, they find themselves reading for a bit and skipping the rest. Just a good-natured suggestion.

 

I was going to say the same thing. You make a lot of good points but a lot is repetitive and some of it just seems like unfiltered rambling off the top of your head, like you're just thinking aloud. Just curious but do you work 3rd shift or something? It seems like a lot of your posts are at 2, 3, 4 am so maybe you're just tired which causes you to ramble?

 

 

Yeah....I got the point from the previous poster. I think the "rambling," was just kinda being a....well...fill in the blank.

 

Anyway, no, I'm self employed...or rather have self sustaining income, so some days I don't have to work and am a bit of an insomniac.

[HiAndTight]

]I think you completely undermine your post when you say that we've got 3-4 WAR guys with Gomez and Gamel because that would imply that either you think most of our healthy lineup consists of 0 WAR players (Hart, Ramirez, Weeks) or that we could simply take the money from Grienke, Wolf, K-rod, etc. this year and use it toward a pitcher and a shortstop and be right back in the thick of things next year. [/b]

 

I also think that a lot of folks on this board completely underestimate how hard it is to built a competitive roster from within. For every Tampa Bay, there are several Royals, Indians, Padres, A's, who are in perpetual rebuilding mode. I really don't want to go back to the days where we win 60 games with the expectation that we'll be World Series contenders in a few years. We did that in the early 2000's. It essentially got us two playoff teams in 5 years. I also don't want to waste three years in the middle of Ryan Braun's prime with a complete rebuild. We might as well just trade Braun then.

 

How on earth does it suggest anything even similar to that?

 

I said that I still believe that Gamel is capable of being a 3-4 WAR player despite his injury and being blocked for several years by all-stars.

And I stated that I thought Gomez had turned a corner, a player who's already put up a 2.6 WAR despite a terrible offensive season at age 22, and a 2.0 WAR, again being the offensive player he's been.

This year with his injury, fangraphs has him having by FAR his worst season, was hitting and having the best year of his career until his injury.

We're talking about two extremely talented physical players who are 26 years old and I said they could potentially turn into 3 to 4 WAR players.

 

So how in the world does that suggest that I think Ramirez, Hart and the rest of our lineup are 0 WAR players.

 

Nor do I see where I said we can just spend money on a SS and a Pitcher, just two random ones and be a WS team next year. Please explain.

[HiAndTight]

]I think you completely undermine your post when you say that we've got 3-4 WAR guys with Gomez and Gamel because that would imply that either you think most of our healthy lineup consists of 0 WAR players (Hart, Ramirez, Weeks) or that we could simply take the money from Grienke, Wolf, K-rod, etc. this year and use it toward a pitcher and a shortstop and be right back in the thick of things next year. [/b]

 

I also think that a lot of folks on this board completely underestimate how hard it is to built a competitive roster from within. For every Tampa Bay, there are several Royals, Indians, Padres, A's, who are in perpetual rebuilding mode. I really don't want to go back to the days where we win 60 games with the expectation that we'll be World Series contenders in a few years. We did that in the early 2000's. It essentially got us two playoff teams in 5 years. I also don't want to waste three years in the middle of Ryan Braun's prime with a complete rebuild. We might as well just trade Braun then.

 

How on earth does it suggest anything even similar to that?

 

I said that I still believe that Gamel is capable of being a 3-4 WAR player despite his injury and being blocked for several years by all-stars.

And I stated that I thought Gomez had turned a corner, a player who's already put up a 2.6 WAR despite a terrible offensive season at age 22, and a 2.0 WAR, again being the offensive player he's been.

This year with his injury, fangraphs has him having by FAR his worst season, was hitting and having the best year of his career until his injury.

We're talking about two extremely talented physical players who are 26 years old and I said they could potentially turn into 3 to 4 WAR players.

 

So how in the world does that suggest that I think Ramirez, Hart and the rest of our lineup are 0 WAR players.

 

Nor do I see where I said we can just spend money on a SS and a Pitcher, just two random ones and be a WS team next year. Please explain.

[HiAndTight]

]I think you completely undermine your post when you say that we've got 3-4 WAR guys with Gomez and Gamel because that would imply that either you think most of our healthy lineup consists of 0 WAR players (Hart, Ramirez, Weeks) or that we could simply take the money from Grienke, Wolf, K-rod, etc. this year and use it toward a pitcher and a shortstop and be right back in the thick of things next year. [/b]

 

I also think that a lot of folks on this board completely underestimate how hard it is to built a competitive roster from within. For every Tampa Bay, there are several Royals, Indians, Padres, A's, who are in perpetual rebuilding mode. I really don't want to go back to the days where we win 60 games with the expectation that we'll be World Series contenders in a few years. We did that in the early 2000's. It essentially got us two playoff teams in 5 years. I also don't want to waste three years in the middle of Ryan Braun's prime with a complete rebuild. We might as well just trade Braun then.

 

How on earth does it suggest anything even similar to that?

 

I said that I still believe that Gamel is capable of being a 3-4 WAR player despite his injury and being blocked for several years by all-stars.

And I stated that I thought Gomez had turned a corner, a player who's already put up a 2.6 WAR despite a terrible offensive season at age 22, and a 2.0 WAR, again being the offensive player he's been.

This year with his injury, fangraphs has him having by FAR his worst season, was hitting and having the best year of his career until his injury.

We're talking about two extremely talented physical players who are 26 years old and I said they could potentially turn into 3 to 4 WAR players.

 

So how in the world does that suggest that I think Ramirez, Hart and the rest of our lineup are 0 WAR players.

 

Nor do I see where I said we can just spend money on a SS and a Pitcher, just two random ones and be a WS team next year. Please explain.

[Dollarbill13]

How on earth does it suggest anything even similar to that?

 

 

Here's the bulk of the roster that we have signed for next year along with a round number projection of their WAR:

 

Braun - 6

Gomez - 4

Gamel - 4

Hart - 3

Weeks - 3

Ramirez - 3

Lucroy - 3

Gallardo - 3

Fiers - 2

 

That's 31 WAR right there. Add that to the 43 wins a replacement level team would theoritecally win and we're at about 74 wins if the rest of our team is only replacement level (which is pretty difficult replacement level is very bad). The rest of our players (including those who we get in free agency) would only have to average about .6 WAR for us to be a mid-80's win team. We still do have a good core of players that, with a couple moves, could be right in the playoff race again next year. Now if you get blown away on a trade offer for Hart or Gallardo, then go for it, but I don't think we're in a situation where our only choices are to sign Greinke or blow up the entire roster.

[JohnBriggs12]

"We have GM that sincerely believes you can build a World Series team with the likes of Yuni B at shortstop"

 

Did I miss something? The Brewers won 96 games with not only the likes of Yuni B at SS but the real thing and were 2 wins short of the World Series through no fault of Yuni B who hit .333 and drove in 5 runs in the NLCS.

 

Doesn't that prove he's right that you don't need All Stars at every position? Despite the venom directed at him as the "worst ever, blah, blah, blah" Yuni had his moments and knocked in 68 runs. I wish they'd have kept him in hindsight. Maybe he would have got hurt too, but likely not, and he's better than what they have now.

[jerichoholicninja]

"We have GM that sincerely believes you can build a World Series team with the likes of Yuni B at shortstop"

 

Did I miss something? The Brewers won 96 games with not only the likes of Yuni B at SS but the real thing and were 2 wins short of the World Series through no fault of Yuni B who hit .333 and drove in 5 runs in the NLCS.

 

Doesn't that prove he's right that you don't need All Stars at every position? Despite the venom directed at him as the "worst ever, blah, blah, blah" Yuni had his moments and knocked in 68 runs. I wish they'd have kept him in hindsight. Maybe he would have got hurt too, but likely not, and he's better than what they have now.

 

I think the completely healthy and successful rotation, lights out bullpen, and great seasons from Prince, Braun, Weeks, Morgan, and Hart had more to do with last year's success than Yuni B being on the team.

[fondybrewfan]

No one seriously thinks that Yuni B was a crucial part of last years success. The point was that you can afford to have some soft spots on the starting roster and still be successful. You don't need a Top 10 player at every position.

[igor67]

After Loe has got roughed up no one in the pen looks like anything other than generic waiver claim middle relievers. Team wide there has been as much under performance overall as there was over performance last year. That said with most of the offense guys it looks more like a case of a really bad month early followed by about career norms the rest of the way. Basically with straight performance expectations on the offense side it looks like a .500 team. If the bullpen had been merely average this year we'd be sitting right there with the Cards. I've gone back and forth, but in a certain sense the idea that we only need some talent improvement is correct. Almost all of it needs to be on the pitching side. Spend the rest of the season trying to sort out and find out who can be relied upon in the pen. Trade Greinke or Gallardo only if you have to. Finding replacements as others have suggested is very high risk, and only increases the chances of having seasons like this where everything seems to go wrong.

[Oldcity]

I would trade Gallardo for Profar, but some have said that I'm underestimating Greinke by suggesting Profar for Greinke straight up. So I didn't even want to get into the Gallardo for Profar argument.

 

Don't you think Gallardo would have more trade value than Greinke simply because of all the years of control left on his contract?

[HiAndTight]

I would trade Gallardo for Profar, but some have said that I'm underestimating Greinke by suggesting Profar for Greinke straight up. So I didn't even want to get into the Gallardo for Profar argument.

 

Don't you think Gallardo would have more trade value than Greinke simply because of all the years of control left on his contract?

 

 

Of course. But I don't think we can actually get Profar for just Greinke, and thought moreso when Ax was throwing the ball extremely well that he could be a guy we could add to the deal. Grienke+Axford for Profar(actually I started with K-Rod, but after a second thought I didn't think that'd do it even though people STILL argued that WE should be getting the prospect in return, not Texas.

[TURBO]

If we trade Gallardo and Greinke, we can expect to see a revolt from the fans, which would certainly be felt in next year's ticket sales...

 

No way can we trade Gallardo and have any shred of competing left in this team. Wholesale trading of opur pitching staff will crush us for years to come.

 

Imagine losing Marcum, Greinke and Gallardo in the same season, for prospects that may, or may not work out...

 

Suicide.

[HiAndTight]

How on earth does it suggest anything even similar to that?

 

 

Here's the bulk of the roster that we have signed for next year along with a round number projection of their WAR:

 

Braun - 6

Gomez - 4

Gamel - 4

Hart - 3

Weeks - 3

Ramirez - 3

Lucroy - 3

Gallardo - 3

Fiers - 2

 

That's 31 WAR right there. Add that to the 43 wins a replacement level team would theoritecally win and we're at about 74 wins if the rest of our team is only replacement level (which is pretty difficult replacement level is very bad). The rest of our players (including those who we get in free agency) would only have to average about .6 WAR for us to be a mid-80's win team. We still do have a good core of players that, with a couple moves, could be right in the playoff race again next year. Now if you get blown away on a trade offer for Hart or Gallardo, then go for it, but I don't think we're in a situation where our only choices are to sign Greinke or blow up the entire roster.

 

 

 

And you totally, 100 pct ignored my question. I said that I think that Gomez(who was really having a great year, and I still believe has improved a great deal and changed his fundamental approach, especially before his injury when he was hitting .280) has the POTENTIAL to be a 3 WAR player, and that I still believe Gamel could be a 3-4 WAR player.

 

Ie, don't give up on them.

 

 

So I'm STILL waiting on an explanation as to how the heck you come to the conclusion that I'm "basically saying," the rest of our lineup, "Hart, Ramirez, Weeks," are 0 WAR type players?

 

Of course you're under the impression that WAR is to be A-taken literally, as in if a player is worth 3.5 WAR he adds 3.5 wins to your team...which I think is ridiculous and literally impossible to quantify and used as a way to evaluate players vs their peers by taking into account a level playing field, ie, hitting 40 HR's in GABP or in Citizens is different than Petco. So it helps us evalutate players in different scenarios.

 

I mean, do you HONESTLY believe if you have a 3 WAR player and you take him out of the lineup, that team will lose 3 more games by replacing him by a 0 WAR player?

 

 

Anyway, you, in your attempt to be distort my post, missed several key factors.

 

-I said that I think both still have the POTENTIAL. Gomez has already posted a season with a WAR near 3.0 and I believe he's a different hitter, and has proven to be so. In fact, without his injury this year, I think he'd be around 1.5 WAR right now. He's rated as negative defensively right now which is absurd, and he lost a great deal of hits coming off his hammy injury....

 

I've been extremely bullish on Gomez in which I thought he was a total waste before this year and beyond fixing. I've changed my opinion.

 

With regard to Gamel, again, BOTH are 26 years old, and I'm still very confident in his ability. It is a big question as to what they do with him next year. Hart looks so good at 1st I can't see him moving. I suppose it depends on if we sell or not. If we do, with the total lack of bats on the market and it being a extreme sellers market, Hart may bring back a surprisingly good prospect in return.

 

 

Anyway, you've still done absolutely NOTHING to explain how you created this straw man argument that I must believe Aram, Weeks, Hart and the rest of the guys in our lineup are 0 WAR guys...which is basically just a complete fabrication of what I actually said.

[HiAndTight]

If we trade Gallardo and Greinke, we can expect to see a revolt from the fans, which would certainly be felt in next year's ticket sales...

 

No way can we trade Gallardo and have any shred of competing left in this team. Wholesale trading of opur pitching staff will crush us for years to come.

 

Imagine losing Marcum, Greinke and Gallardo in the same season, for prospects that may, or may not work out...

 

Suicide.

 

 

First of all, let me reiterate how much disdain I have for the statement, "prospects that may or may not work out." Where do you think all the great players in the game come from? Now if you're talking about draft picks, there is a pretty high liklihood that those picks may not work out.

 

However when you're drafting players who have played for 3-4 years in the minor leagues and have performed at a high level, THAT'S how you rebuild a team.

 

And suicide is to spend 110-115 million dollars on a team that doesn't have a chance to compete and is a 75 win team.

 

 

Suicide to me is basically becoming one of those middling teams that doesn't get younger, and instead tries to hang on hoping they get lucky every year, lacking the talent to actually compete, and keep spending the money on overpriced veterans hoping they can fill;unfillable positions, such as the spot left behind by Greinke.

 

Trading Gallardo gives us the ability to get either 1 GREAT elite prospect and 2 very good prospects.

 

Not to mention the fact that if we lose Gallardo, we're going to spend the last 3 years of his career here as a 65-75 win team with little to no chance to compete anyway.

 

 

And I think the inteliligent fans won't revolt, and what fans want is a winner. To me, this is one of the quickest ways to get back to a winner.

 

Just a quick scenario. Lets say we trade Greinke+Axfrod to a team like the Tigers and pick up a Jacob Turner and Nick Castenallos. Two players who are close to major league ready and are VERY likely to be good players.

Gallardo for a Jurickson Purfar, the best minor league SS in the game and very possibly a guy who'll be the best SS in the game in as little as 2-3-4 years.

Hart to a team looking for a bat(which is a HUGE list) for a top pitching prospect.

Aram-We eat 10 million making the rest of his deal a bit of a bargain and get perhaps another top 50 prospect....from a team like the the Dodgers for Example. Evoldi for Hart should be enough for LAD.

 

 

Suicide is waiting too long to move these players. Waiting until Gallardo has a year left on his deal and we're a basement dweller. Suicide is spending 100+ million on a team that can't compete.

 

Suicide has nothing to do with the fans if your a basaeball GM, it has to do with winning. Suicide is wasting Braun's prime years by not putting a competitive team on the field.

 

Imagine infusing Profar, Castenellos, top 100 Of'er, Jacob Turner, Evoldi.

 

None of which are all that unlikely given this years sellers market and the teams we'd be dealing with and their desire to add that "final piece."

And I've left off several players who are guys who could easily get players in return.

 

And realistically, we could see each and everyone of those players in the big leagues next year.

 

Turner is like a Porcello with better K potential and a guy who projects to be an even better GB pitcher.

Profar I've already stated time and time again, but he could be a leadoff hitter who could be a GG, steal 40 bags, hit 20 HR's, and put up a .300/.385/.450 line at his peak.

Castenellos is hitting near .400 in A+ and AA ball right now.

 

And Evoldi has the upside of a #2/3 pitcher. And these are just names that have been thrown around, and we still have players who have trade value, and a wave of prospects on their way.

 

Add in the draft class from this year, the prospects already in our system, Lucroy, Braun, Gamel, Fiers, Thornburg, Nelson, Bradley, Jungman, Gennett...etc..etc...

 

 

So, in my opinion, suicide is going forward with a team that doesn't have the ability to compete, overspending, and trying to MAYBE eek out a .500 record when we have several young arms coming up and almost NOTHING behind that. By the way, it wasn't suicide for the Marlins who did the exact same thing who ended up with a WS team and pitchers like Josh Beckett, AJ Burnett, the ability to sign Miguel Cabrera, Carl Pavano, Brad Penny, Mike Lowell, Derek Lee and several others all the result of their rebulding process.

 

 

 

 

Of course re-signing Greinke changes everything and gives us a chance to compete in the near future.