Knobler reports Brewers are ready to sell, as early as today

[monty57]

I'm expecting "exciting and fun to watch" in 2013 and "legitimate shot at being competitive" in 2014.

 

With that in mind, Hart (contract up after 2013) is more useful to the Brewers by being traded prior to next season than he is playing for the Brewers in 2013 and then leaving via free agency. He'll be 31 next year, so extending him for his age 32, 33, 34, etc seasons at an eight digit salary doesn't really appeal to me.

 

Ramirez may not be able to be traded after this season. His final year is basically a one year / $20MM contract... who would want to trade for that? If we can get decent talent back for him and get out of his contract, I think we have to take it. I wouldn't give him away for nothing at this point (I would at this time next year), but right now it appears that teams are actually willing to give us some talent back for him.

 

Our offense will suffer in 2013 without these two, but we're not competing in the year we letting our young pitchers get on-the-job-training anyway. I think it'd be more fun to watch the good, young prospects we'd get for Greinke, Hart and Ramirez, then it would be to watch the team losing, knowing we were going to lose Hart and are unable to trade Ramirez. The prospects we'd receive (filling in around Braun, Weeks, Lucroy, Yo and our current prospects) are the big reason I think we'd be able to get back to contention as early as 2014. Holding onto Hart and Ramirez may keep us a little better next year, but probably worse in 2014.

[FVBrewerFan]

Agreed Monty, but they could keep Hart next year and deal him at the trade deadline. IMHO, that's the best of both worlds. Now if they happen to get a great offer for him in the next couple days, fine deal him. Even in a rebuilding year, it scares me to take both ARam and Hart out of an already mediocre line-up.

[pebadger]

I don't see how this team can't be at least competitive next season, in this particular division, provided you don't completely deflate the thing.

 

Aoki, Weeks, Braun, Ramirez, Hart and Lucroy is a good offensive core. You have to almost completely rebuild the pen, but that in many ways comes down to good fortune as much as anything. As much a headache as the pen has been for the Brewers this season, bullpens are not especially good throughout baseball. Yeah, you have to catch lightning in a bottle, but that goes for most pens, even those that seem to be established. There is a team that this year has a "good" pen that is going to fall flat on its face with pretty much the same guys next season.

[gregmag]

What's interesting to me is the degree of consensus I'm seeing in our various comments. We all understand that you trade anybody if someone is willing to overpay, but the question is (see xisxisxis above) whom you're actively trying to cash in. If I read everyone right, the major points of disagreement are:

 

(1) Hart. Trade now, trade in the offseason, trade at the 2013 deadline if we're out of the race, or extend? That's a big question, but most people seem to agree that he's a worthwhile player, and the question is whether paying FMV for his production makes sense to this team at this time.

 

(2) Ramirez. A few people say keep him, or at least keep one of him and Hart. But most of us, even those (like me) who approved of signing him, say trade him now if you can.

 

(3) Gamel. I'm just throwing this one in gratuitously; his name hasn't come up much lately. But nobody ever agrees about Gamel, so I'm presuming that some still want him to start at 1b while others want to dump him in a ditch somewhere. That's just how it goes with him.

 

(4) Gomez. I'm not actually sure about this one; people haven't brought him up much. But I'm guessing some would DFA him before paying him, while others would pay FMV for his production.

 

But that's about all I can see for big disagreements, and even those aren't huge. No one's saying Hart or Ramirez sucks, and by the same token no one's arguing that Ramirez will likely be worth the third year of his contract. Most people seem to want to extend Marcum on the cheap if possible, hold onto Weeks and Axford to see whether they'll rebound, dump the rest of the bullpen, dump the veteran bench guys (including Morgan, I'm guessing, although we haven't talked a lot about him here), give some of the young guys (Thornburg, Green, Schafer) a real chance to earn PT.

 

I've just never seen this much agreement on the board about what the team needs to do.

[monty57]

Agreed Monty, but they could keep Hart next year and deal him at the trade deadline. IMHO, that's the best of both worlds.

 

If they trade Hart prior to the beginning of next season, the receiving team would get the compensatory pick when he left at the end of the season. Therefore, the return for Hart right now (or this offseason) should be much greater than the return for Hart at this time next year. Hart is a good hitter, but they have Aoki in RF for 10% of Hart's salary and Gamel at 1B for 5% of Hart's salary. The marginal difference in performance should be alleviated by the prospect(s) we'd receive in trade.

 

I don't see how this team can't be at least competitive next season

 

I'm willing to be a little worse (but fun to watch) in 2013 in order to be better in 2014 and beyond. Going for it in 2013 could make us worse in 2014, as we lose Hart, Ramirez is 35 or 36 years old and we don't have the prospects we could've traded them for in 2012 who by 2014 should already have some MLB experience. Plus, not paying Greinke $20-somethingMM and saving $40MM on Hart & Ramirez, while adding multiple good players playing for league minimum give us tons of financial flexibility. Whatever your lot in life, having financial flexibility is better than not having financial flexibility.

 

As you mentioned, we need to totally overhaul the 'pen next year. We also have to rely on Fiers, Estrada and probably Thornburg or Peralta to play significant roles in the starting rotation. I'm really happy that Fiers and Estrada have outperformed expectations, but putting 3-4 unheralded and untested SP in a starting rotation doesn't scream playoffs, especially with a likely sub-par bullpen and somewhat-better-than-average offense. I don't see us as a playoff team next year and I'm fully willing to accept that, even enjoy that, as long as we have some exciting young players we can watch develop, knowing that better days are coming soon.

[torts]

I don't see how this team can't be at least competitive next season, in this particular division, provided you don't completely deflate the thing.

 

well, we are losing the worst team in the division, so its not going to be AS terrible as it has in the past...

[pebadger]

I don't see how this team can't be at least competitive next season, in this particular division, provided you don't completely deflate the thing.

 

well, we are losing the worst team in the division, so its not going to be AS terrible as it has in the past...

 

That's true, but I'm not terribly blown away by what's at the top. Losing the Astros makes it harder to get the wildcard, but winning the NL Central isn't like winning the AL East. This year's Reds are last year's Brewers. We don't even know if the Pirates can keep things up this year, much less whether they will play this well next season. The Cubs are in full retool mode.

 

I'm not saying that the Crew should be all-in for next year or do something dumb in terms of going out seeking veterans to add with the idea that they can turn this time into a high-probability contender. But I'm also not a huge fan of the notion that rebuilding is a sure-fire x-year process, because it's not. Sometimes just having a solid team that has an opportunity to make a good run is the best option, provided you are always looking to remodel and experiment a bit as you go.

[FVBrewerFan]

(3) Gamel. I'm just throwing this one in gratuitously; his name hasn't come up much lately. But nobody ever agrees about Gamel, so I'm presuming that some still want him to start at 1b while others want to dump him in a ditch somewhere. That's just how it goes with him.

 

You haven't seen Gamel's name because I think we all realize he doesn't have any trade value at this time, and there's really no reason to cut him since he has a minimal salary.

 

I think his fate has a lot to do with what happens to Hart/ARam between now and Spring Training, and who they get back out of the Greinke trade. He may need to find his 3B glove again, or even his OF glove. Any way you slice it, he won't be given a starting job like he was this year.

 

Frankly, I would like to see Hunter Morris get a long look at 1B in Spring Training. So Gamel would have to compete with Hart (maybe) and Morris there. At 3B he competes with Green and ARam (maybe.) In RF he has Aoki. So it will be interesting to watch. But I still believe he can be a very good hitter, he just may not have the chance to prove it.

[FVBrewerFan]

I don't see how this team can't be at least competitive next season, in this particular division, provided you don't completely deflate the thing.

 

well, we are losing the worst team in the division, so its not going to be AS terrible as it has in the past...

 

This year's Reds are last year's Brewers

 

I don't think so. I can't imagine Chapman falling off like Axford did. Votto/Bruce won't be broken up like Fielder/Braun was. They have young starting pitching, for the most part, not 4 guys who have expiring contracts. Obviously they can get hit with a rash of injuries like anyone else, but barring that they should be tough to deal with for the next few years.

[TooLiveBrew]

And this year's Brewers are kinda like last year's Reds. Funny the way baseball goes from season to season.

[xisxisxis]

(3) Gamel. I'm just throwing this one in gratuitously; his name hasn't come up much lately. But nobody ever agrees about Gamel, so I'm presuming that some still want him to start at 1b while others want to dump him in a ditch somewhere. That's just how it goes with him.

 

I think the best thing for Gamel is to put him in a platoon situation next year. Hart would be the regular 1B and Gamel would back him up. Matt then gets into a significant number of games as the RF against RH pitching splitting time with Aoki in RF. I'm expecting Morgan to be gone (well hoping) and I'd have Schafer and Gomez platooning in CF. If Matt gets enough experience in RF, he can backup 1B, 3B and the OF. If he can't succeed in a platoon situation then I think we have to move past him. Same with Taylor Green, if he can't have success with 3-4 starts a week (2-3 at 2B and 1-2 at 3B) then we have to move on....

[FVBrewerFan]

That plan for Gamel sounds about right. Then with injuries, poor performance, etc. it may take care of itself and he'll work his way into being a full time player at one of those positions. As for Green, no way he gets 2 or 3 starts a week at 2B with Weeks there.

[PrinceEatMeat]

That plan for Gamel sounds about right. Then with injuries, poor performance, etc. it may take care of itself and he'll work his way into being a full time player at one of those positions. As for Green, no way he gets 2 or 3 starts a week at 2B with Weeks there.

 

Yeah it's probably one or the other between Green and Gamel. One of them will have to backup 1B, 3B, and play some RF, and the other is probably gone. I guess we could keep stashing Green in AAA, but not sure if that will happen or not. Either way, I don't see both on the same roster.

[topper09er]

I'm surprised I haven't seen anything about Ramirez to the Yankees since ARod is out. Seems like the perfect chance to dump his salary to a team that needs him and can afford him. Then trade Greinke and sign him as a FA.

[zzzmanwitz]

I am pretty sure I saw somewhere (probably mlbtraderumors.com) that said the Yankees weren't interested in AmRam because he was signed for multiple years. I don't have a link obviously.

[PrinceEatMeat]

Yeah, it makes no sense for the Yankees to trade for a 3B who is signed beyond this year. They could just move A-Rod to DH next year or something, but it doesn't seem like they're ready to do that at this point.

[igor67]

What about dealing Gomez? He has established some actual value, and we have a multitude of candidates to roughly replace his current value. They have different skill sets, but I'd explore seeing if there is a market for him.

[TheCrew07]

Rotation - one problem of the current rotation is that we have too few SP that can be relied on to go 7 innings (esp if Greinke is gone). Relying on 2-3 inning a game with a crappy bullpen is a recipe for the exact disaster we are seeing. Gallardo's biggest weekness is that he averages 17-18 pitches an inning and rarely has enough to go 7 and that is what keeps him from being an elite SP. If we unload Greinke we either need a young guy ready to step in or is a year away. Friers has shown he should be one of the 7-8 candidates and has the ability to pitch deep into games. my tentative rotation would be Gallardo, Marcum (on a 1 year extension), Friers, Grienke replacement, Estrada. Rogers should be given a chance to either stick as the 5th SP or convert to a RP. Thornburg would be a backup SP in AAA and Peralta would be plan C. depending on addressing the other weeknesses I'd be inclined to sign a vetern FA pitcher to bump Estrada and or Greinke's replacement to the pen.

 

There's absolutely no reason to blow up this team other than shifting our target for competition to 2014 to see how the young SP shake out. With the right trade return for Greinke and changes to the BP and bench, this team could be competitive nextyear. If things don't go well in the rebuilding then trade ARam if possible and shop Weeks if he has a 2-3 month revival (to rescue some of his value). Look to be competitive in 2 to 3 years, with a rotation of young guys, but maybe with the loss of Hart and Weeks and a replacement at 3B.

 

The whole post was excellent as usual, but I particularly thought 2 paragraphs I quoted were spot on, somehow we have to find pitchers who can semi regularly get through more than 6 innings. Again pitchers in the bullpen are mostly failed starting pitchers, the idea should be to minimize their contribution, not maximize it. Trading away players with expiring contracts that we shouldn't resign in the first place isn't rebuilding, it's retooling, and there's a wide gulf between the 2 ideas.

[TooLiveBrew]

Friers, LuCroY, Kotteris... who else are we missing Maldanado?

[pebadger]

That's exactly what I mean. The Reds do look primed to have a run, but who knows? There aren't any organizations in this division that can just buy their way out of problems or that are a lead-pipe lock for success in a given season.

 

If the Brewers feel like they need to put this thing in Neutral for a bit to facilitate moving forward later, I get that. I just don't see a lot of value in putting it in Reverse.

[Oxy]

That's exactly what I mean. The Reds do look primed to have a run, but who knows? There aren't any organizations in this division that can just buy their way out of problems or that are a lead-pipe lock for success in a given season.

 

If the Brewers feel like they need to put this thing in Neutral for a bit to facilitate moving forward later, I get that. I just don't see a lot of value in putting it in Reverse.

 

Well, we used to be able to count on the Cubs to buy their way INTO problems rather than out of problems, but I somehow doubt that Epstein will continue that tradition.

[JimH5]

Friers, LuCroY, Kotteris... who else are we missing Maldanado?

 

 

I getcha. And I was guilty of botching Maldonado earlier. But I swear I saw it spelled with an "a" either on the back of his jersey or on a TV graphic earlier in the year.

[TooLiveBrew]

Well a couple of nights ago, the FSN-WI 'farm report' graphic used the T-Rats logo for every level they highlighted in said graphic... so I guess what I'm saying is I don't doubt that you may have seen it spelled "Maldanado"

[RockCoCougars]

I think that I can spell Greinke at least three different ways in the same post. 'I before E' my foot.

[Marc Newfield of Dreams]

Friers, LuCroY, Kotteris... who else are we missing Maldanado?

 

Palsmo.