Knobler reports Brewers are ready to sell, as early as today

[TooLiveBrew]

I'm glad Melvin's asking price for Greinke is incredibly high right now. He's doing it the right way. Aim high, and then work your way down if need be. Teams will get desperate eventually.

Yeah, I was very happy to see that he asked BAL about Machado in the Heyman piece markedman linked.

 

EDIT: Also, Jon Heyman -- this is not how you hold a baseball bat...

 

http://i.imgur.com/W7Tqu.jpg

[dlk9s]

I think now would be a terrible time to move Weeks or Axford, because I believe both will bounce back (not to say they'll never crater again). I would keep Braun and Yo, of course, because they're our cornerstones. I would also keep Lucroy, Aoki, Fiers, Estrada, and Maldonado because they're all cheap and do important jobs well, and that's exactly the kind of player a rebuilding team needs. I also think some of our youngish guys who are still transitioning to the majors -- Thornburg, Gamel (DL, so not an issue now), Green -- are almost certainly worth more right now, for the Brewers, as bets to develop and contribute than as trade chips.

 

That's twelve guys who probably should be on the MLB roster next year. In addition, having Marcum back on a reasonable extension or a one-year arby salary wouldn't be a bad thing; and I could see keeping Gomez around if he doesn't break the bank in arby, because he's still young and he's so good at the things he isn't terrible at. Everybody else should go. I love Greinke, but he's obviously history. Hart and Ramirez are good players who deserve their salaries, but paying market value for second-tier stars on the wrong side of 30 makes little sense for a rebuilding mid-market team.

 

I pretty much agree with all of this, particularly the bolded. So many people seem to want to just trade anybody who may be worth something. In the meantime, a bunch of those guys are young and inexpensive and what we'd get back for them would likely be very similar players.

 

I'd like to keep Hart, but I can understand the benefits of trading him.

[igor67]

There is no way Melvin can do enough deals to tear the team down by the deadline. It also doesn't make a lot of sense that the team went from almost in the World Series to tear it down in a year. As someone else pointed out the offense is at essentially the same performance after Prince left, and that was the only major change to the team. The team didn't get old overnight (see Phillies for what this looks like). All of which points to a similar talent level in the last years and this years teams. Even sans Greinke there is still a solid amount of talent. I can't condone a complete rebuild the history of that strategy is not a two year trip to the desert as suggested above, but more like a decade see how long the Pirates, A's, Rays, and Brewers were actually bad. People have blamed GMs for poorly carrying out the strategy for years, but maybe the entire strategy is just high risk and it takes a long time to refind major league talent after you sell it all off.

[brettac1]

I'm glad Melvin's asking price for Greinke is incredibly high right now. He's doing it the right way. Aim high, and then work your way down if need be. Teams will get desperate eventually.

Yeah, I was very happy to see that he asked BAL about Machado in the Heyman piece markedman linked.

 

EDIT: Also, Jon Heyman -- this is not how you hold a baseball bat...

 

http://i.imgur.com/W7Tqu.jpg

He's just holding it how Scott Boras told him to.

[rluzinski]

There is no way Melvin can do enough deals to tear the team down by the deadline. It also doesn't make a lot of sense that the team went from almost in the World Series to tear it down in a year.

I think Melvin could trade half a dozen players and still be playing for 2013. Guys like Greinke, Marcum, KRod, Wolf and probably Kotaras will not be playing for the 2013 Brewers regardless. Maldonado will have a minimum impact with Lucroy around. You could trade a guy like Hart and it could still be a net gain to the '13 and '14 teams, depending on the return and team makeup.

[DHonks]

I'd trade Hart before Weeks, Axford, and Ramirez. But I agree on dealing our glut of backup shortstops, Loe, Parra, K-Rod, kottaras, Wolf, etc

[Ennder]

We had a bad year but absolutely gutting the team would be a terrible move right now. This team is not a sub .500 team and it wasn't a 96 win team last year. The range of outcomes for a team season to season is just huge so if you can put even an 81 win team on the field you have a definite shot at the playoffs.

 

Out of the established guys the only one I'd like to move is Hart and that is because with Aoki playing so well he kind of becomes expendable and he has some good value. I wouldn't trade Aramis though or Axford and probably not Weeks. Definitely none of the younger guys who we have for 2+ years still. You can't waste years of having Braun with rebuilding, you have to try to field a competitive team.

[FVBrewerFan]

Since they will keep Braun, Gallardo, Lucroy, etc. I don't consider it a complete tear-down. It's not like what the Marlins, Pirates, etc. have done over the years where they sell-off every taleneted player they have.

 

Lok at it this way. No matter what you want to call it, they have to completely revamp the entire pitching staff for next season. That's not even a choice really. Just a function of 3 starters having their contracts up, and a bullpen that is not very....well they suck. So call it a tear-down, rebuild, whatever. Fact of the matter is they have no choice.

 

As for position players, sure dump guys like Izturis, Morgan, Kottaras, etc. That's really no different than any other year either. Always trying to replace the bottom of the roster with better players. So the only real decision that remains is what to do with Weeks, Hart, and ARam.

 

I think Weeks will/should be back. Then I think you keep one of Hart/ARam. I agree you need one of those guys intheir to have a legit MLB line-up.

 

I guess my point is, there's no reason to debate whther they should blow it up, because in a large way they have no choie but to do that anyhow.

[Outlander]

I still have hopes that they resign Hart to a multi year contract out of the blue, similar to the previous contract. I would love if they could somehow dump Weeks. Would definitely consider Ramirez as well since he will be overpaid the next two years and it could be used to pay Hart.

[adamds22]

I only see a few pieces moved, obviously Greinke, you try to get something for any of our bullpen arms not named Axford but doubtful you get anything other than maybe salary relief from KRod. Try to move Wolf but that is also unlikely you get much of anything from him either. Try to trade Morgan, maybe get something low out of him but again no high expectations. You can't trade Marcum, definitely trade one of Kottaras or Maldanado, I'd rather hang onto Maldanado. I'm not sure they move Weeks as they would be selling incredibly low right now. Then I think they try to move either Hart OR ARam as someone else said above as you could get a decent return from them. Other than that do you really think any team is going to want to trade for our crap (Ishikawa, Izturis, Ransom) doubtful.

[monty57]

Look at it this way. No matter what you want to call it, they have to completely revamp the entire pitching staff for next season. That's not even a choice really. Just a function of 3 starters having their contracts up, and a bullpen that is not very....well they suck. So call it a tear-down, rebuild, whatever. Fact of the matter is they have no choice.

 

I think that's being missed by some. Our starting rotation to begin this season was Gallardo, Greinke, Marcum, Wolf, Narveson. Of that, only Gallardo is signed for next season. It's great that Fiers and Estrada have pitched well, as that makes the "rebuild" easier, but we'll still need to field a five-man rotation, and a rotation of Gallardo, Fiers, Estrada, Thornburg, Peralta is not getting you to the playoffs in 2013. As to the bullpen, we could offer arby to Loe, Veras and Parra, but they're basically the reason we're selling this year, and would cost around $10MM to keep all of them, so other than Axford, we'll probably need to completely rebuild the bullpen.

 

I'm hesitant to trade both of Hart and Ramirez, as it would hurt our offense pretty significantly next season, but if they could bring back good young talent it might be worth it. After next year, Hart will be gone, and we'll owe Ramirez basically one-year / $20MM, so if we're going to trade them, it pretty much needs to be done before next season starts.

[Fear The Chorizo]

From a pitching staff perspective for next season, the rest of this year will be important. Dealing Greinke and hopefully Wolf will open up rotation spots for some of the young Brewer arms to gain MLB experience. If they want to limit prospect arby clock start times, they still have Livan to shift into the rotation.

 

I think you see if Marcum can come back healthy at some point this season - if so I think it's worth offering a 1-2 year deal to him if he's open to it. Then you'd have Gallardo, Fiers, Marcum, and probably Estrada as four solid rotation options - filling in the final spot with a prospect or quality FA signing is more than doable.

 

It's the bullpen that is in complete disarray right now, but I think the Brewers still have enough pieces to put one together for 2013 without killing their payroll. Tons of ways to do it, but one of the cheaper ways could be:

 

Axford

Rogers

Henderson

Stetter

FA/trade pickup

Prospect

Narveson

 

I think Parra is done as a Brewer, even with his arm talent.

[FVBrewerFan]

I know I'm a broken record, but whenever the pitching staff for next season is mentioned, Burgos is never mentioned. I mean, what else does this guy have to do? Not saying he makes the rotation, but he should be considered and given a look every bit as much as Peralta, Thornburg, and Rogers.

 

Also, rarely see Sanchez and Kintzler mentioned as options for the 2013 pen, and they'll certainly be in the mix come Spring Training.

[zzzmanwitz]

I have no problem looking a Burgos in spring, but I think he at least needs to show something in AAA first. If he does well in AAA, he could be a call up at some point in 2013. His first 3 years in the minors were very mediocre. This is the first year he has really made himself into a legit prospect.

[Fear The Chorizo]

I have no problem mentioning Burgos, Sanchez, Kintzler for next year's staff at all - didn't want to post a novel, though.

 

I guess my point is that the bullpen needs to be gutted, and it can be done without having to overpay veteran arms if the Brewers want to use their farm system. The last two months of this year should serve as a good tryout for many of these guys to set up competition for the 2013 opening day roster.

[igor67]

To clarify I don't think that dealing half a dozen players is a complete tear down. I think it is perfectly possible to trade a substantial number of players on the roster, but relatively few of them by the deadline. Two major deals of a position player and Greinke is probably about the most that could happen by the non-waiver deadline. Then you focus on the garage sale of possible spare parts in August and see who can scare up a little bit of value. Maybe in the offseason you swing one other deal for a big name on the roster and you can turn over a lot of the team without burning the whole thing to the ground.

[umphrey]

Would we get a comp pick for Wolf?

[trwi7]

Would we get a comp pick for Wolf?

 

Only if we plan on offering him a $12.5 million guaranteed contract for one year and then drug him and his agent with something that make them forget we offered them a one year $12.5 million contract.

[TURBO]

If we do a lot of damage to our current roster with a tear-down, what big name free agent will want to come to Milwaukee?

 

Burning this thing to the ground has a lot of pitfalls, and if we want to continue to have the ability to attract free agents like Ramirez, Greinke, etc, we better be careful. (Yes, I know Greinke wasn't signed as a free agent, but he will be one soon enough)

[xisxisxis]

If I was Brewers GM, Braun is the only payer I wouldn't listen to offers. I don't think this team needs an entire teardown, but they need to shed some salary to address the following issues (in no particular order):

 

SS - end the parade of absolute crap at SS. havinf a defense minded SS isn't a bad thing, but how about someone who was born after 1980 and preferably 1986.

 

2B - If Weeks suckitude continues much longer then at least get a bench replacement/platoon who is LH and has decent defense.

 

Bench - invest in some decent IF and 1B backups that can actually play their positions at a level ABOVE replacement. Taylor Green could handle 2B and 3B backup is cheap and needs to be setup for success at the MLB level he could easily take AB away from Weeks. He should also get significant opportunities to spell Aram (if we can't unload that contract). I'd look for a high OBP LH 1B and a bench SS to counter the weeknesses of the regular SS.

 

Rotation - one problem of the current rotation is that we have too few SP that can be relied on to go 7 innings (esp if Greinke is gone). Relying on 2-3 inning a game with a crappy bullpen is a recipe for the exact disaster we are seeing. Gallardo's biggest weekness is that he averages 17-18 pitches an inning and rarely has enough to go 7 and that is what keeps him from being an elite SP. If we unload Greinke we either need a young guy ready to step in or is a year away. Friers has shown he should be one of the 7-8 candidates and has the ability to pitch deep into games. my tentative rotation would be Gallardo, Marcum (on a 1 year extension), Friers, Grienke replacement, Estrada. Rogers should be given a chance to either stick as the 5th SP or convert to a RP. Thornburg would be a backup SP in AAA and Peralta would be plan C. depending on addressing the other weeknesses I'd be inclined to sign a vetern FA pitcher to bump Estrada and or Greinke's replacement to the pen.

 

Bullpen - crappy and or old is the current state. Only RP I would keep is Axford. Dump KRod, Loe, Parra, and Veras for anything you can get. See what Henderson and Kintzler can do the next few months. Either spend some $ in FA to add 2 RP or focus on young guys available in trades for Greinke or whomever can be unloaded. The pirates have a bullpen full of young guys who throw heat (for strikes) so there's no reason we can't do the same.

 

 

There's absolutely no reason to blow up this team other than shifting our target for competition to 2014 to see how the young SP shake out. With the right trade return for Greinke and changes to the BP and bench, this team could be competitive nextyear. If things don't go well in the rebuilding then trade ARam if possible and shop Weeks if he has a 2-3 month revival (to rescue some of his value). Look to be competitive in 2 to 3 years, with a rotation of young guys, but maybe with the loss of Hart and Weeks and a replacement at 3B.

[yoshii8]

If we do a lot of damage to our current roster with a tear-down, what big name free agent will want to come to Milwaukee?

 

Burning this thing to the ground has a lot of pitfalls, and if we want to continue to have the ability to attract free agents like Ramirez, Greinke, etc, we better be careful. (Yes, I know Greinke wasn't signed as a free agent, but he will be one soon enough)

 

 

Money talks w/ a lot of free agents. Also, the fact that we would still have Braun, Weeks, Lucroy, Aoki, Gallardo means that we are still going to have a chance to contend.

[FVBrewerFan]

I don't understand. You daid Braun is the only guy you would keep for sure, but then at the end you say "absolutely no reason to blow up the team." And you give examples of change at virtually every position. Maybe you don't like the term "blow-up" but that's exactly what you're recommending.

[TooLiveBrew]

EDIT: Also, Jon Heyman -- this is not how you hold a baseball bat...

 

http://i.imgur.com/W7Tqu.jpg

He's just holding it how Scott Boras told him to.

http://t3.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcScvweD2qTMbKpIZKT3WgeF2neUSJaFB65N4B-XmPKmcZKuJFskZw&t=1

 

 

Only if we plan on offering him a $12.5 million guaranteed contract for one year and then drug him and his agent with something that make them forget we offered them a one year $12.5 million contract.

This also lol'd me. Nice.

[xisxisxis]

I don't understand. You daid Braun is the only guy you would keep for sure, but then at the end you say "absolutely no reason to blow up the team."

 

Braun is the only player in the group "will not trade", all the other players are in the group "willing to trade". just because they are in the "willing to trade" group doesn't mean any of them are in the group "will be traded". You are making the assumption that these are the same. The only player that should be traded at this time is Greinke.

 

 

And you give examples of change at virtually every position. Maybe you don't like the term "blow-up" but that's exactly what you're recommending.

 

blowup is when you attempt to trade anything of value, hopefully for players that give you a window of opportunity in the future. Yes we should blow-up the bullpen, however, most of the rest of the team isn't a major problem other than a horrific bench. letting Wolf walk isn't a blow-up. letting KRod walk isn't a blow-up. trading Greinke is maximizing value. Trading weeks, Gallardo, Hart, and ARam is pretty much a blow-up. i am not advocating that as a strategy, but if given an offer i couldn't refuse for all of them then yes i would "blow-up" the team. Gallardo and Aram for kershaw and guera done. Greinke and Weeks for kinzler, profar, and feliz. done. Hart for prado and delgado. done.

[FVBrewerFan]

Ok. Still sounds like semantics to me. Blow up the bullpen. Blow up the rotation. Blow up the bench. Willing to blow up any combination of Weeks/Hart/ARam.

 

I don't diagree with any of that by the way, just don't be afraid to call it that- it's ok. Just like ripping a band-aid off.