Impressions of Roenicke 2012

[Funketown]

But he hit a home run! I can't believe the arrogance of some of you folks, to argue with a hunch.

 

Seriously I would love to spend a day presenting RR with batting lines and see which he prefers. If RR had the choice of these two lead off men which would he pick?

 

A: .275/.365/.450

 

B: .265/.290/.400 , 25 SB's

 

Gotta go with B.

[Thurston Fluff]

Cesar Izturis, Zack Greinke, Carlos Gomez (against a right hander), and Nyjer Morgan are the four batters directly before the best hitter in the Brewers lineup.

 

Maybe you should look at the whole lineup. The other four were Ramirez, Hart, Weeks and Maldonado. Hart and Weeks have a .309 OBP. Maldonodo has a pretty good one, relatively speaking, at .327. So does Ramirez at .341. I guess it would create more runs to have Ramirez leading off with Maldy and Hart hitting second and third ahead of Braun. Then, when one of them do get on base and Braun doesn't drive them in I'm sure Izturis would make a fine cleanup hitter to drive them in as would Gomez. Morgan looks like a prototypical five hole guy doesn't he? The problem we have right now is the guys who can actually drive in runs are also the only guys actually getting on base at all. I don't know how you pin that on RRR.

[Menotti80]

No mentions of RRR directly influencing the last 2 Brewer victories? (pinch running gomez, squeezing with Aoki)

 

Some of those decisions may seem to be no brainers, but most mangers wouldn't have done either.

[rluzinski]

Hart and Weeks have a .309 OBP. Maldonodo has a pretty good one, relatively speaking, at .327. So does Ramirez at .341. I guess it would create more runs to have Ramirez leading off with Maldy and Hart hitting second and third ahead of Braun. Then, when one of them do get on base and Braun doesn't drive them in I'm sure Izturis would make a fine cleanup hitter to drive them in as would Gomez. Morgan looks like a prototypical five hole guy doesn't he? The problem we have right now is the guys who can actually drive in runs are also the only guys actually getting on base at all. I don't know how you pin that on RRR.

 

As bad as Weeks has been this year, he STILL has an OBP 21 points higher than Gomez! Also, you should not be restricting yourself to just this year's stats. Projections aren't the end all be all but they are better than just quoting half a year's worth of stats. Assuming Aoki needed a day off and Braun is staying at #3, here were the options to bat before Braun:

 

ZiPS Updated OBP projections:

Ramirez: .341

Weeks: .335

Hart: .327

Morgan: .320 (and platoon advantage)

Maldonado: .300

Gomez: .292

Izturis: .275 (switch hitter)

 

Gomez didn't have the platoon advantage, is a horrible OBP guy but he has a little bit of pop. You can argue that he would make a bad 5 or 6 hole hitter (and he does) but he makes even a worse lead off or #2 hitter. But RR see Gomez as fast, so nothing else actually matters.

[trwi7]

No mentions of RRR directly influencing the last 2 Brewer victories? (pinch running gomez, squeezing with Aoki)

 

Some of those decisions may seem to be no brainers, but most mangers wouldn't have done either.

 

I'll give him credit for taking out Ramirez to run with Gomez but what exactly was so special about the squeeze play? There were runners on 1st and 3rd with no one out. Chances are they get a run there, squeeze or not.

[rluzinski]

No mentions of RRR directly influencing the last 2 Brewer victories? (pinch running gomez, squeezing with Aoki)

 

Some of those decisions may seem to be no brainers, but most mangers wouldn't have done either.

 

I'll give him credit for taking out Ramirez to run with Gomez but what exactly was so special about the squeeze play? There were runners on 1st and 3rd with no one out. Chances are they get a run there, squeeze or not.

 

That's the thing about the squeeze play that is so silly. We are supposed to think it's so awesome that the Brewers have 7(?) successful squeeze plays this year. You only attempt a squeeze play when you already have a high probability of scoring already! I believe the Brewers have 2 official failed squeeze plays (which I assume refers to making an out at home on the play). That ignores when a bunt is attempted that results in an out at first and no run scored. There was at at least one of those as well. Even if we do just look at 7 successes vs. 2 fails, that is a 22% failure rate.

 

Perhaps the squeeze play is slightly underutilized in the majors but how often RR utilizes it is comical. But hey, they are fun to watch so the fans love it.

[Thurston Fluff]

As bad as Weeks has been this year, he STILL has an OBP 21 points higher than Gomez!

 

I could say the same about Morgan and his career .342 OBP. You might not have noticed he was one of those guys listed by Glenron in his criticism of how bad the lineup was in front of Braun. Why no comment on that?

Also, you should not be restricting yourself to just this year's stats.

 

Then so should Glenron. What is wrong with Morgan batting ahead of Braun?

 

Also, you should not be restricting yourself to just this year's stats. Projections aren't the end all be all but they are better than just quoting half a year's worth of stats.

At some point you have to look at what you are getting from your players now. It isn't early in the season anymore. If they haven't figured it out by now I say move them down until they hit like they can. When they start to move closer to their career norms they can start to go back to their normal roles.

 

You can argue that he would make a bad 5 or 6 hole hitter (and he does) but he makes even a worse lead off or #2 hitter. But RR see Gomez as fast, so nothing else actually matters.

Is Gomez on the top of the order simply because Ron only cares about his speed or does it have to do with not moving the entire roster around to accommodate one light hitting player. I think a lot of people get too wrapped up in finding motives behind certain decisions that may or may not be accurate. Fact is that group of players had 50% of the lineup that are like 8 hole hitters. How you lineup your roster of subpar hitters when half of them suck is going to be questionable no matter what you do.

[trwi7]

Gomez batting leadoff again today.

[Funketown]

Was it a straight squeeze or a safety squeeze? From what I saw it didn't look like Weeks took off until he saw Aoki make contact.

 

Regardless of the result, I'm not going to praise Roenicke for calling a squeeze/safety squeeze with 1st and 3rd, none out, and Aoki at the plate. Especially with Weeks at third, the odds on Aoki getting a ball to a place that allows Weeks to score are pretty good. A botched squeeze could have easily killed that inning.

[Bombers]

Was it a straight squeeze or a safety squeeze? From what I saw it didn't look like Weeks took off until he saw Aoki make contact.

 

Regardless of the result, I'm not going to praise Roenicke for calling a squeeze/safety squeeze with 1st and 3rd, none out, and Aoki at the plate. Especially with Weeks at third, the odds on Aoki getting a ball to a place that allows Weeks to score are pretty good. A botched squeeze could have easily killed that inning.

So no credit to RRR but a botched squeeze could have easily killed that inning?

 

It was a safety squeeze, but who cares? RRR is the one who pulled the trigger. Removed Cesar, input Aoki, bunt down, weeks in. Sounds like great managing to me. What should he have done?

1. Played HR ball there like previous managers?

2. Insert Kottaras and hope he hits it into the OF?

3. No, the best option was the squeeze. Even with teams KNOWING it is coming. He still does it successfully. RRR had a chance to do it again in the same inning with Gomez at the plate. This time with 1 out, the Marlins pitched out. Good thing the squeeze wasn't on then. Granted it would have been awesome for him to call a squeeze on the ensuing pitch.

 

I am all for calling out RRR when he makes mistakes ... But when he calls for a squeeze and it's successful, give him credit.

[jerichoholicninja]

Was it a straight squeeze or a safety squeeze? From what I saw it didn't look like Weeks took off until he saw Aoki make contact.

 

Regardless of the result, I'm not going to praise Roenicke for calling a squeeze/safety squeeze with 1st and 3rd, none out, and Aoki at the plate. Especially with Weeks at third, the odds on Aoki getting a ball to a place that allows Weeks to score are pretty good. A botched squeeze could have easily killed that inning.

So no credit to RRR but a botched squeeze could have easily killed that inning?

 

It was a safety squeeze, but who cares? RRR is the one who pulled the trigger. Removed Cesar, input Aoki, bunt down, weeks in. Sounds like great managing to me. What should he have done?

1. Played HR ball there like previous managers?

2. Insert Kottaras and hope he hits it into the OF?

3. No, the best option was the squeeze. Even with teams KNOWING it is coming. He still does it successfully. RRR had a chance to do it again in the same inning with Gomez at the plate. This time with 1 out, the Marlins pitched out. Good thing the squeeze wasn't on then. Granted it would have been awesome for him to call a squeeze on the ensuing pitch.

 

I am all for calling out RRR when he makes mistakes ... But when he calls for a squeeze and it's successful, give him credit.

 

No, the best option was to let Aoki put the ball in play since the infield was back. Rickie scores on a ground ball or fly ball to the outfield.

[Bombers]

Was it a straight squeeze or a safety squeeze? From what I saw it didn't look like Weeks took off until he saw Aoki make contact.

 

Regardless of the result, I'm not going to praise Roenicke for calling a squeeze/safety squeeze with 1st and 3rd, none out, and Aoki at the plate. Especially with Weeks at third, the odds on Aoki getting a ball to a place that allows Weeks to score are pretty good. A botched squeeze could have easily killed that inning.

So no credit to RRR but a botched squeeze could have easily killed that inning?

 

It was a safety squeeze, but who cares? RRR is the one who pulled the trigger. Removed Cesar, input Aoki, bunt down, weeks in. Sounds like great managing to me. What should he have done?

1. Played HR ball there like previous managers?

2. Insert Kottaras and hope he hits it into the OF?

3. No, the best option was the squeeze. Even with teams KNOWING it is coming. He still does it successfully. RRR had a chance to do it again in the same inning with Gomez at the plate. This time with 1 out, the Marlins pitched out. Good thing the squeeze wasn't on then. Granted it would have been awesome for him to call a squeeze on the ensuing pitch.

 

I am all for calling out RRR when he makes mistakes ... But when he calls for a squeeze and it's successful, give him credit.

 

No, the best option was to let Aoki put the ball in play since the infield was back. Rickie scores on a ground ball or fly ball to the outfield.

Or he doesn't, just like Izturis's DP to the pitcher. Nothing is a given. As a manager, it is your job to put your team in position to be successful. RRR did that right there.

[Glennron]

Cesar Izturis, Zack Greinke, Carlos Gomez (against a right hander), and Nyjer Morgan are the four batters directly before the best hitter in the Brewers lineup.

 

Maybe you should look at the whole lineup. The other four were Ramirez, Hart, Weeks and Maldonado. Hart and Weeks have a .309 OBP. Maldonodo has a pretty good one, relatively speaking, at .327. So does Ramirez at .341. I guess it would create more runs to have Ramirez leading off with Maldy and Hart hitting second and third ahead of Braun. Then, when one of them do get on base and Braun doesn't drive them in I'm sure Izturis would make a fine cleanup hitter to drive them in as would Gomez. Morgan looks like a prototypical five hole guy doesn't he? The problem we have right now is the guys who can actually drive in runs are also the only guys actually getting on base at all. I don't know how you pin that on RRR.

 

I guess in a roundabout way I was compounding the fact that A)Izturis sucks and is still starting for some reason (yeah I know Ransom isn't much better, but lesser of two evils) and B)I hate that Gomez is playing against RHers AND batting lead off.

 

And for the record, if Gomez HAS to start over Aoki against a RHer, I'd rather have Morgan lead off and everyone else shift up one, with Gomez 7th. But that'd never really happen.

[Raw Biz]

Or he doesn't, just like Izturis's DP to the pitcher. Nothing is a given. As a manager, it is your job to put your team in position to be successful. RRR did that right there.

 

And what would you have said if the squeeze was botched? It's been pointed out many times on this board that a good result doesn't mean something was a good decision and a bad result doesn't necessarily mean there was a bad decision. Aoki is clearly a better hitter than Izturis. In order to score the run swinging away, he could've gotten a hit, a fly ball to the OF, or a groundball to SS/2B. To score with the squeeze, he had to get a perfect bunt, since it was a safety squeeze. I'd rather take the option with more chances for success.

[Bombers]

Or he doesn't, just like Izturis's DP to the pitcher. Nothing is a given. As a manager, it is your job to put your team in position to be successful. RRR did that right there.

 

And what would you have said if the squeeze was botched? It's been pointed out many times on this board that a good result doesn't mean something was a good decision and a bad result doesn't necessarily mean there was a bad decision. Aoki is clearly a better hitter than Izturis. In order to score the run swinging away, he could've gotten a hit, a fly ball to the OF, or a groundball to SS/2B. To score with the squeeze, he had to get a perfect bunt, since it was a safety squeeze. I'd rather take the option with more chances for success.

 

I would have said, good call. I know that the result doesn't make it good or bad ... I have stated before I am all for squeezes. I think it was a good time to call one there becuase:

1. Aoki is a good hitter, Ozzy played his infielders in DP position and outfielders at standard depth.

2. Aoki puts the ball in play 76% of the time.

These are some reasons why a squeeze is a good call. It's unexpected. Weeks has good speed, Aoki has good bat control.

 

A few hitters later, Gomez came to the plate. Gomez isn't as good a hitter as Aoki, thus Ozzy thought the squeeze would be on again and pitched out. It wasn't on. Good call by RRR on when to use it and when not to use it.

[trwi7]

If Aoki is a good hitter, why would you want him bunting?

[Thurston Fluff]

I'll give him credit for taking out Ramirez to run with Gomez but what exactly was so special about the squeeze play? There were runners on 1st and 3rd with no one out. Chances are they get a run there, squeeze or not.

 

I give him credit for doing such plays enough that the player can actually succeed when called to do it. Complaining about something that worked seems like allowing preconceived notions of what should happen trump what actually happened.

 

I guess in a roundabout way I was compounding the fact that A)Izturis sucks and is still starting for some reason (yeah I know Ransom isn't much better, but lesser of two evils) and B)I hate that Gomez is playing against RHers AND batting lead off.

 

I think part of what I found odd about that criticism is of the four you mentioned one was the pitcher and the other clearly the worst hitter on the team. Pitchers virtually always hit 9th and the worst hitter usually always hits 8th. The times they don't bat in that order it's usually reversing the two and hitting the pitcher 8th. There is nothing odd or wrong with having your two worst hitters bat 8th and 9th. So you really were talking about the top two batters in the order. Of those two Morgan who has a career .355 obp against right handers and profiles to be a table setter. So the only guy you really can complain about is Gomez. While I see the argument for not batting him leadoff I also see the argument for not moving a bunch of guys for the sake of one. Then they scored more runs than their average runs scored per game. That may be coincidental or it may not be. It is entirely possible keeping guys in set roles helps them perform better in those roles. Either way I am not sure how it didn't work to the point you felt a need to complain about it. Other than it wasn't what you would have done. If that is the reason I'm cool with that. But that isn't the same as saying someone was wrong for doing something different.

[rickh150]

Keep bunting, RR! You are making the Brewers a better threat to score runs in multiple ways. The THREAT to steal/bunt can occupy the pitcher's and manager's minds, producing errors and misplays by the opposition.

[thebruce44]

Keep bunting, RR! You are making the Brewers a better threat to score runs in multiple ways. The THREAT to steal/bunt can occupy the pitcher's and manager's minds, producing errors and misplays by the opposition.

 

I'd rather occupy the scoreboard and produce line drives.

[Glennron]

I think part of what I found odd about that criticism is of the four you mentioned one was the pitcher and the other clearly the worst hitter on the team. Pitchers virtually always hit 9th and the worst hitter usually always hits 8th. The times they don't bat in that order it's usually reversing the two and hitting the pitcher 8th. There is nothing odd or wrong with having your two worst hitters bat 8th and 9th. So you really were talking about the top two batters in the order. Of those two Morgan who has a career .355 obp against right handers and profiles to be a table setter. So the only guy you really can complain about is Gomez. While I see the argument for not batting him leadoff I also see the argument for not moving a bunch of guys for the sake of one. Then they scored more runs than their average runs scored per game. That may be coincidental or it may not be. It is entirely possible keeping guys in set roles helps them perform better in those roles. Either way I am not sure how it didn't work to the point you felt a need to complain about it. Other than it wasn't what you would have done. If that is the reason I'm cool with that. But that isn't the same as saying someone was wrong for doing something different.

 

You're right in that this was a weird thread for my comment, and that Roenicke couldn't really do anything about most of what I said. I guess I did a poor job of conveying my point, which is basically that I never ever want to see Carlos Gomez bat first or second against a right handed batter. Even if Morgan and Aoki both for some strange reason have the day off.

 

I guess that's part this thread and part the preferred lineup thread.

[Baldkin]

I'm really getting sick of this team making outs on the bases while Braun is either already hitting, or coming up.

 

It has happened 3 times now in the last 3 games, and it is a bit ridiculous.

 

I don't care what anyone says, that is on RR, he needs to tell these guys, "Hey, don't be stupid and make outs when the 2nd best hitter in the NL is coming up next."

[dlk9s]

Everything our manager does is wrong!

[RockCoCougars]

Lots of second guessing of RR going on around here. I don't have a problem with much that he's done this year, except for one thing. He has to start getting his starting pitching further into games. There have been several games just in the past week where he's had a quick hook. Pitch counts be darned, if a guy is going good and reasonably projects to be under 110-115 pitches after the next full inning (basically if they are under 100 pitches) keep him in there with this bullpen. As far as I know, there is no rule against pulling your starter in the middle of an inning if things don't go as planned.

[3and2Fastball]

My impression of Roenicke: I've never seen a manager who liked to bunt more! And a lot of times the bunts work....

[Bombers]

If Aoki is a good hitter, why would you want him bunting?

Bat control, probability of laying down a good bunt, score a run. Yes Aoki is a good hitter but he does strike out, hit groundouts to 3rd and the pitcher, and hit weak pop up outs. RRR saw an opportunity to put 1 in the board and took it.

 

 

Keep bunting, RR! You are making the Brewers a better threat to score runs in multiple ways. The THREAT to steal/bunt can occupy the pitcher's and manager's minds, producing errors and misplays by the opposition.

I also agree with this, it will start being on the minds of other teams and maybe influence defensive positioning.