Impressions of Roenicke 2012

[adambr2]

- Defense has not improved, and Izturis and Ishikawa are poor players receiving a great deal of playing time

 

No offense, but Ishikawa who entered today with an .850 OPS and a positive WAR according to Fangraphs, isn't one of the problems with the Brewers on the year to date. He may turn into a liability before too much more time passes, but assessing the problems of the Brewers for the year to date excludes Ishikawa from the list of culprits.

 

That is if we're being objective.

 

Robert

 

Have to admit, I hadn't looked at Ishikawa's stats but I had no idea he was putting up an .850 OPS. Yes agreed, objectively if he is putting up an .850 OPS this year than he definitely isn't part of the problem, though I doubt that will be sustainable.

 

I will say that he has looked a lot poorer defensively than I expected with how much his glove at 1st was talked up, but that's a pretty marginal difference at 1st anyway, and that might be expected to swing in the other direction as well as the season progresses.

[RobertR]

 

Have to admit, I hadn't looked at Ishikawa's stats but I had no idea he was putting up an .850 OPS. Yes agreed, objectively if he is putting up an .850 OPS this year than he definitely isn't part of the problem, though I doubt that will be sustainable.

 

I will say that he has looked a lot poorer defensively than I expected with how much his glove at 1st was talked up, but that's a pretty marginal difference at 1st anyway, and that might be expected to swing in the other direction as well as the season progresses.

 

I don't want to come off like a member of the Ishikawa fan club either. I expect some pretty significant regression before too much longer. That said, people getting up in arms because Roenicke picked a 28 year old with a 91 OPS+ over a slightly more versatile 32 year old with an 87 OPS+ kind of baffles me. Yeah I can see the arguments for versatility, but is it really surprising that a 28 year old mediocrity might have a better year than a 32 year old mediocrity? Especially if the 28 year old may have a better work ethic?

 

If I'm critiquing Roenicke it's because of how he's used Veras and perhaps in how he hasn't found ABs for Aoki, along with running the team out of runs. Although none of that may matter until Weeks and Ramirez start hitting and Gallardo, KRod, and Wolf start pitching much better.

 

Robert

[logan82]

Ishikawa was a pretty useless part when we still had Gamel. He was a left handed backup 1B backing up a left handed starter. We only had Izturis backing up 2B, SS and 3B where 3B and 2B are guys who continually have health problems.

 

 

 

I would have rested Lucroy on Sunday(day after nightish game). I don't have much issue with how Lucroy has been started this year. He has been getting more time off than last year. The personal catcher thing isn't to bad unless we face a lefty.

 

If Hart does well at 1B I would actually prefer Gamel in RF next year. Unless the injury completely wrecks his speed. I think he is more athletic than Hart so Hart 1B, Gamel RF may be a better defensive alignment.

[Marc Newfield of Dreams]

Let's get to 14 innings and bring in the worst reliever in the pen. Could be fun, right?

[adambr2]

Already invested 13 innings into the game. You need to keep the game tied. Facing a righty, then two lefties.

 

You have 3 relievers left:

 

Reliever A is a RHP with a 2.50 ERA. One of your best relievers so far this year.

Reliever B is a RHP with a 4.26 ERA. Hot and cold.

Reliever C is a LHP with a 13.50 in a couple apperances, fresh out of AAA having been brought in for Chulk just to have another available arm.

 

Naturally, our manager goes with Reliever C.

 

I think what makes it worse is that Loe was probably "unavailable" because Ron burned him out in a 16-4 game the night before having him throw 37 pitches. Rather than have Perez and Dillard chew up innings a blowout, he burns one of his best relievers in the 9th of a blowout.

 

EDIT: Forgot that Dillard was tossed from the game, but still, no reason for Perez to only go 2/3rds of an inning in a complete blowout, and no reason for Loe to throw 37 pitches.

[monty57]

Already invested 13 innings into the game. You need to keep the game tied. Facing a righty, then two lefties.

 

You have 3 relievers left:

 

Reliever A is a RHP with a 2.50 ERA. One of your best relievers so far this year.

Reliever B is a RHP with a 4.26 ERA. Hot and cold.

Reliever C is a LHP with a 13.50 in a couple apperances, fresh out of AAA having been brought in for Chulk just to have another available arm.

 

Naturally, our manager goes with Reliever C.

 

I think what makes it worse is that Loe was probably "unavailable" because Ron burned him out in a 16-4 game the night before having him throw 37 pitches. Rather than have Perez and Dillard chew up innings a blowout, he burns one of his best relievers in the 9th of a blowout.

 

EDIT: Forgot that Dillard was tossed from the game, but still, no reason for Perez to only go 2/3rds of an inning in a complete blowout, and no reason for Loe to throw 37 pitches.

 

Because of the bullpen makeup, I can't fault Roenicke too much, but I'd have probably just let Parra bat in the top of the inning with two outs. The odds of Ishikawa ending the game or starting a two-out rally weren't great, and you never know how long the game could go and Parra should've had a couple more innings in him. Once Parra was out, there really wasn't a good solution as to who should be used.

 

I mentioned when Perez was brought up that having a LOOGY (Perez) and two ROOGY's (Loe, Dillard) would really limit the bullpen. In the 14th inning with a righty and two lefties coming up, I don't really want any of Perez, Loe or Dillard coming in for the whole inning, but I don't want to use Dillard for one batter and then Perez for the final two as that would only leave Loe to pitch the rest of the night. We need to get Dillard off the roster and bring up someone who can pitch to righties and lefties.

[rluzinski]

I'd still rather have Roenicke's style over Macha's, assuming that Roenicke will slack off some on the squeeze play. If I know when it's coming I have to assume that the other team also knows.

I actually haven't had much problem with the squeeze calls; they seem to have had a very high success rate so far.

The reason why you don't see most teams call NEARLY as many squeeze plays is because they understand that the risk isn't generally worth the reward:

 

Average Run Scored:

Runner at third, 0 out: 1.5 runs

Runner at third, 1 out: 1 run

Runner at first and third, 0 out: 1.9 runs

Runner at first and third, 1 out: 1.2 run

loaded, 0 out: 2.4

Loaded, 1 out: 1.7

 

I'm sure having a couple of week batters coming up make it a much more favorable move but unless the success rate is 100%, it's a risky proposition.

 

Now, if it's late and you really only need 1 run, that changes things. Again, that situation really doesn't come up very often.

[3and2Fastball]

In terms of Manny Parra/Perez and last night's game, I blame Doug Melvin more than Ron Roenicke for last night's game.

 

Who exactly is our long relief guy in the bullpen right now? Who of them can go 4 innings?

 

Perez is pretty much just a LOOGY and he's not all that great as a LOOGY, he's filling a spot that would be better used by Estrada if you went with Peralta as the 5th Starter, or Peralta if you made him the Long Relief guy...

 

Our bullpen is not built to withstand extra innings. That is not Ron Roenicke's fault. Although I was looking forward to seeing Carlos Gomez pitch if it went into the 15th or 16th inning, I think the ending last night was inevitable once we got to Perez

[3and2Fastball]

I think what makes it worse is that Loe was probably "unavailable" because Ron burned him out in a 16-4 game the night before having him throw 37 pitches. Rather than have Perez and Dillard chew up innings a blowout, he burns one of his best relievers in the 9th of a blowout.

 

EDIT: Forgot that Dillard was tossed from the game, but still, no reason for Perez to only go 2/3rds of an inning in a complete blowout, and no reason for Loe to throw 37 pitches.

 

This is a good point, but again I'd say that points more to Doug Melvin moreso than Roenicke. We really don't have a long relief guy right now. I agree that Loe shouldn't have been used like that in a blowout though

[monty57]

I think what makes it worse is that Loe was probably "unavailable" because Ron burned him out in a 16-4 game the night before having him throw 37 pitches. Rather than have Perez and Dillard chew up innings a blowout, he burns one of his best relievers in the 9th of a blowout.

 

EDIT: Forgot that Dillard was tossed from the game, but still, no reason for Perez to only go 2/3rds of an inning in a complete blowout, and no reason for Loe to throw 37 pitches.

 

This is a good point, but again I'd say that points more to Doug Melvin moreso than Roenicke. We really don't have a long relief guy right now. I agree that Loe shouldn't have been used like that in a blowout though

 

I think Parra would be considered our "long guy," which is why I'd have kept him in to hit instead of batting Ishikawa with two out and no one on base. Pitchers hit in the NL all the time, so no reason Parra couldn't have batted and threw a couple more innings. Of course, I'm assuming that Parra could pitch four or five innings if needed. Maybe he can't.

 

Either way, I agree that we need to make a bullpen change. I'd keep Perez as a LOOGY and get rid of Dillard the ROOGY, but I wouldn't be heartbroken seeing either of them go bye-bye, as long as he was replaced by someone with some talent who can pitch to RH and LH batters.

[3and2Fastball]

monty, good point about Parra. I really don't know how stretched out Parra is right now and how many innings he could have gone last night. He certainly was pitching well, and if he could have kept going he'd have been a much much better option than Perez.

 

I guess I was assuming that Roenicke took Parra out because Parra had reached his pitch count limit for that particular game

[adambr2]

Still none of this explains why Dillard wasn't used before Perez. Dillard isn't anyone's favorite guy, but he's a little too trampled on for a mop-up guy with a 4.26 ERA. I think almost everyone would agree that they would have felt a lot better about him than Juan Perez.

 

In extra innings at home, the one and only objective in the top half of any inning is to preserve the tie long enough to win it in the bottom half. Roenicke did that, up until the point where he decided that Perez was his best remaining option.

[logan82]

That whole issue comes back to the roster construction problems. Now if that is on the manager or GM I don't know. I have to believe that if asked, Melvin would bring up somebody else to start or for the pen.

[monty57]

There were two lefties coming up, and lefties are hitting .423 against Dillard. Granted small sample, but he's not good against lefties.

 

That's my biggest problem with how the bullpen is constructed. You have Loe & Dillard who shouldn't face lefties and Perez who shouldn't face righties. That makes bullpen management darn near impossible, so it makes it hard for me to put much blame on Roenicke for his bullpen moves (and I'm by no means a Roenicke apologist).

[TooLiveBrew]

I'm sure having a couple of week batters coming up make it a much more favorable move but unless the success rate is 100%, it's a risky proposition.

I don't mean that I expect squeeze calls to continue to work, but so far to me, it seems like Roenicke has had good results. I don't expect that to necessarily continue, but since they've worked alright the squeezes don't bother me as much as the disgusting Annexation of Puerto Rico*.

[Ennder]

If your argument hinges on Tim Dillard it is flawed to begin with, lets be real here.

[adambr2]

If your argument hinges on Tim Dillard it is flawed to begin with, lets be real here.

 

Dillard has not been THAT bad this year. Certainly not as bad as he has been painted out to be.

[thebruce44]

That whole issue comes back to the roster construction problems. Now if that is on the manager or GM I don't know. I have to believe that if asked, Melvin would bring up somebody else to start or for the pen.

 

It kinda suck we are faulting DM for not idiot proofing the bullpen like last year. Should he really have to do that?

[RobertR]

If your argument hinges on Tim Dillard it is flawed to begin with, lets be real here.

 

I tend to think that you can swap Brooks Conrad in place of Tim Dillard and the same basic principle applies.

 

Much of what ails the Brewers this year falls directly on Doug Melvin. Not getting Hairston signed, for instance.

 

Robert

[Invader3K]

Hairston being re-signed would have been nice, but doubt it would have made up for Gamel, Gonzalez, Izturis, Narveson, and Estrada all ending up on the DL in a very short time span.

[brettac1]

Yeah, I find it very hard to get upset at Roenicke as much when the team is just bad.

[Invader3K]

Yeah, I find it very hard to get upset at Roenicke as much when the team is just bad.

 

Let's not forget that two big holes in the lineup are Weeks and Ramirez, who are both established veteran players. What is he supposed to do? Bench both of them or teach them how to hit better? At least Ramirez has been coming around, but there is only so much the manager can do in situations like this.

[dlk9s]

Agreed. I posted this in the last IGT, but really, when it comes to the lineup, there's not much RR or even DM can do.

 

Braun and Hart have played to expectations (I'm not looking at projections, just my estimation). Lucroy has exceed expectations. Aoki has been better than expected, too, but he hasn't played enough to really matter imo (looks like he's going to, though). Despite their hot starts, both Gomez and Kottaras are about where we thought they'd be, with Gomez's numbers still maybe a bit high because of his fast start.

 

Then you have Weeks, Morgan, and Ramirez, the three guys surrounding Braun in the lineup most of time, who have totally fallen off a cliff. Nobody could have predicted that steep a drop in production.

 

Then, with season ending injuries to Gonzalez and Gamel, you're forced to play AAA-caliber players in the starting lineup. Even if they were a little better (and I suppose Ish hasn't been too bad, but has to be a platoon player), it would still suck to be starting bench players all season. And now that Ishikawa and Izturis are on the DL, RR is forced to play even more AAA players. And yeah, we're all high on Green, but it's not like he's been all that great so far.

 

So basically, you have the two corner outfielders and starting catcher playing at or above expectations. Everyone else has either forgotten how to hit a baseball or is a AAA-type player who can barely hit a baseball as it is. Sure, some of the problem has to do with DM's construction of the team, but that's really only a couple players at this point. There's only so much the powers that be can do.

 

And that's just the hitters.

[TURBO]

Hairston being re-signed would have been nice, but doubt it would have made up for Gamel, Gonzalez, Izturis, Narveson, and Estrada all ending up on the DL in a very short time span.

 

Do any of those players hitting the DL really make us that much worse?

 

Gonzalez, probably.

 

Gamel, we just don't know enough about him yet to be able to say.

 

Izturis is WW fodder.

 

Narveson and Estrada can be replaced without a big drop off.

 

I just don't see some of those injuries even mattering in the grand scheme of things.

[Baldkin]

When you go 3 people deep at 3 positions at the same time, yes, it makes a huge difference.

 

You can usually absorb one injury at a position, but we're now on our 3rd SS, 3rd 1B and 7th starting pitcher. That is very, very tough to absorb. Not to mention two of our 4 all stars have hit worse than anyone else in the lineup thus far.