Braves acquire Ryan Dempster from Cubs [Or Not? Reply #23]

[monty57]

I do not see why the Braves would have given up Teheran for Greinke when they could just give up Delgado for Dempster.

 

You could be absolutely correct. We'll never know because Melvin didn't force them to make that decision.

 

do you know that for a fact?

 

Exactly. We have NO idea what went down. We have NO idea what would have been offered for Greinke. We have NO idea if Melvin asked for Teheran. And we have NO idea if Atlanta was even interested in Greinke.

 

Which is what I was saying when told that the Braves would not give up Teheran. I just argued that we don't know whether or not they would give him up unless you make the offer. It goes both ways. However, it was noted earlier on in the thread somewhere that the Braves weren't going to wait any longer to see what Milwaukee decided to do with Greinke. If true, that leads me to believe that they called asking and were told to hold on until the Brewers decided if they were extending or trading / buying or selling.

 

I want to add that the argument you make "We have NO idea..." is the arguement everyone makes when defending the state of the Brewers. We know the Braves were willing to part with young pitching, we know the Dodgers are willing to part with young pitching, we know the Rangers and Angels are willing to part with good young prospects. This isn't unusual, it happens every year. However, many argue that the Brewers' inability to ever trade for any of this young talent is because it's never available. I don't buy it. Young talent is available if you're willing to go get it.

 

I just hope we decide to go get it this season.

[TooLiveBrew]

I hate to be a Debbie Downer raining on the Prospect Parade here, but let's just say that I think that this team is much further away than a Delgado and Zach Lee (or whoever) from competing in the next few years if all the free agents defect.

If you made an effort to educate yourself on who the better young players in baseball are, I'd respect that your dismissal of them was at least informed.

[RockCoCougars]

I hate to be a Debbie Downer raining on the Prospect Parade here, but let's just say that I think that this team is much further away than a Delgado and Zach Lee (or whoever) from competing in the next few years if all the free agents defect.

If you made an effort to educate yourself on who the better young players in baseball are, I'd respect that your dismissal of them was at least informed.

 

Well, I have read the lists... which is about as much as the next guy has on here. I follow the minors a bit, but certainly not as much as I did when the Brewers were in Beloit and I was younger. Back in those days I actually had a subscription to Baseball America.

 

I also have to temper the general enthusiasm for flipping Grienke for a prospect because from what I've seen over the years, more often than not most hotshot prospects bust to some degree. The same goes for 'deadline' type deals. My cynicism is based on these realities. More often then not, these deals turn out to be forgotten footnotes a few years down the road. I think that it's foolish to trade ZG and forgo a high draft pick, settling for a substandard deal, because some guy was named on 'the list'. I'd rather depend on the Brewer scouting staff to mine a couple of high upside, 'no name' guys in A ball than cave in for a guy because he was ranked #79 on some list. I'm sure the Brewer brass feels the same way, but I guarantee you if such a trade was made there would be people here carping because of some newspaper/blog rumor that the Brewers could have scored a 'Top 100 prospect' as an alternative.

 

I do take exception that I'm uniformed though, especially in this particular case. I generally give a reason that I don't like a trade rather than 'he sucks'. That's better than most who go around trumpeting some meaningless rank as a justification for making some deal that is probably better suited for a video game.

[RockCoCougars]

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[ninja33]

are you suggesting the brewers wouldn't have thoroughly scouted whoever they're trading for? just going with a guy "because he was ranked #79 on some list"?

[Funketown]

.

 

I disagree! Rabble rabble rabble.

 

 

I'm curious what type of contract Dempster might be in line for at the end of this season. Might he be a guy the Brewers consider on a 1-2 year deal if the price is right?

[RockCoCougars]

are you suggesting the brewers wouldn't have thoroughly scouted whoever they're trading for? just going with a guy "because he was ranked #79 on some list"?

 

Actually it's just the opposite. I have more faith in the Brewers scouting system to find guys than I do in some ranking by a magazine. Go to the 'Trade Rumors' board, and find me something for Greinke with a non 100 prospect(s). Many people here are too carried away with this list, that's all that I'm saying. I'd rather have the Brewers make a move for some unknown 19 or 20 year olds who may make 'the list' in a few years than take some guy who has already been on the list and hasn't performed in the majors, causing his current team to deem him as expendable.

[ninja33]

are you suggesting the brewers wouldn't have thoroughly scouted whoever they're trading for? just going with a guy "because he was ranked #79 on some list"?

 

Actually it's just the opposite. I have more faith in the Brewers scouting system to find guys than I do in some ranking by a magazine. Go to the 'Trade Rumors' board, and find me something for Greinke with a non 100 prospect(s). Many people here are too carried away with this list, that's all that I'm saying. I'd rather have the Brewers make a move for some unknown 19 or 20 year olds who may make 'the list' in a few years than take some guy who has already been on the list and hasn't performed in the majors, causing his current team to deem him as expendable.

 

I get that, but by saying this you're pretty strongly implying that the brewers wouldn't have scouted the player on "the list" or who has been in the majors. They're going to scout everyone and take back what they think is the best package.

 

I agree in the respect that I want the Brewers to get the best possible package. If that is three guys in A ball, then so be it. and a lot of guys on top 100 lists are in AA or lower and still a few years away from making the majors. It's not just guys who couldn't perform (as 22 year olds) and were deemed expendable. Anyone traded has been deemed expendable, so I don't know how much sense that makes.

 

I understand that you think that trading for a top prospect is still a crapshoot, no matter what any list says. I agree with that, as well as the notion that prospects tend to be overvalued a lot. I just think that the draft or unknown 19 year olds are a much much bigger crapshoot, so when you're in a situation where you need to trade a guy like Greinke shooting for a top ranked prospect is the best route.

[SRB]

are you suggesting the brewers wouldn't have thoroughly scouted whoever they're trading for? just going with a guy "because he was ranked #79 on some list"?

 

Actually it's just the opposite. I have more faith in the Brewers scouting system to find guys than I do in some ranking by a magazine. Go to the 'Trade Rumors' board, and find me something for Greinke with a non 100 prospect(s). Many people here are too carried away with this list, that's all that I'm saying. I'd rather have the Brewers make a move for some unknown 19 or 20 year olds who may make 'the list' in a few years than take some guy who has already been on the list and hasn't performed in the majors, causing his current team to deem him as expendable.

 

Come on, I agree that prospect lists are not the gospel, and I agree that many-if-not-most prospects do not live up to their potential. But are you actually arguing that prospects not listed in the BA Top 100 have a higher success rate than prospects that are listed in the BA Top 100?

 

The Brewers will only get a supplemental pick if they keep Greinke and let him walk. They have to be extraordinary lucky for the player they pick in that position just to be the type of young prospect that ends up as a BA Top 100 player, much less a major league contributor more valuable than the average BA Top 100 prospect.

 

And are you suggesting that he Brewers scouting department will have a better handle on some high school kid they haven't even seen yet, as compared to an established prospect they probably have a huge file on? If you trust the Brewers scouts, just trust the Brewers scouts. Many, many of this mid-season deals end up huge successes for the trading team. That's how smart scouts can get a Carlos Santana for a Casey Blake rental.

[RockCoCougars]

are you suggesting the brewers wouldn't have thoroughly scouted whoever they're trading for? just going with a guy "because he was ranked #79 on some list"?

 

Actually it's just the opposite. I have more faith in the Brewers scouting system to find guys than I do in some ranking by a magazine. Go to the 'Trade Rumors' board, and find me something for Greinke with a non 100 prospect(s). Many people here are too carried away with this list, that's all that I'm saying. I'd rather have the Brewers make a move for some unknown 19 or 20 year olds who may make 'the list' in a few years than take some guy who has already been on the list and hasn't performed in the majors, causing his current team to deem him as expendable.

 

I get that, but by saying this you're pretty strongly implying that the brewers wouldn't have scouted the player on "the list" or who has been in the majors. They're going to scout everyone and take back what they think is the best package.

 

I agree in the respect that I want the Brewers to get the best possible package. If that is three guys in A ball, then so be it. and a lot of guys on top 100 lists are in AA or lower and still a few years away from making the majors. It's not just guys who couldn't perform (as 22 year olds) and were deemed expendable. Anyone traded has been deemed expendable, so I don't know how much sense that makes.

 

I understand that you think that trading for a top prospect is still a crapshoot, no matter what any list says. I agree with that, as well as the notion that prospects tend to be overvalued a lot. I just think that the draft or unknown 19 year olds are a much much bigger crapshoot, so when you're in a situation where you need to trade a guy like Greinke shooting for a top ranked prospect is the best route.

 

Yes.... that's pretty much my take in a nutshell. Over the years, it seems when the sellers make out on these deadline deals, it's because they mined some player(s) from the lower minors. Maybe I'm jaded, but over the years I've been a Brewer fan, I've seen them trade too many guys, settling for the 'Former Rated Rookie Whose Prospect Is Dimming/Blocked by a Better Player' guy. I see that guy in a lot of the trade proposals bandied about here... meaning that I'd rather see a Gary Sheffield-type deal than a Greg Vaughn or Cirillo deal.

[RockCoCougars]

Come on, I agree that prospect lists are not the gospel, and I agree that many-if-not-most prospects do not live up to their potential. But are you actually arguing that prospects not listed in the BA Top 100 have a higher success rate than prospects that are listed in the BA Top 100?

 

Absolutely not. Obviously with the information that they have, BA should be able to cherry pick a list of guys with better chances of success (though it's still a crap shoot). At the same time, if a player was so highly rated, why would a team deem him expendable (giving 5.5 for .5)? Granted, maybe the GM is stupid/desperate or maybe he is blocked. However, maybe the player has not been able to cut the mustard in the majors or the scouting FO staff have internally identified some flaws in his game and feel that he is not as good as the rating would indicate. I tend to think that is the case here with Delgado. Frankly, I'm not certain that the BA rating adds any value to a given prospect from a front office perspective, though it most certainly does with the fans.

[Invader3K]

Sounds like it's a done deal now, per sources on Twitter.

[berniebrewer4life]

Sounds like it's a done deal now, per sources on Twitter.

 

Yep, Dempster just has to approve it.

[torts]

would be funny if he waited until noon tomorrow to approve it, sounds like he was pissed that he found out about it via the media and not the cubs

[JohnBriggs12]

Dempster prefers going to the Dodgers. Of course this begs this question. Is Delgado enough for Greinke? We now know the Braves are willing to part with Delgado to rent Dempster but if they can't get him will they turn to Greinke? Adding Delgado to the mix of candidates for next year's rotation is interesting. It might allow them to consider moving Estrada into a late inning relief role. It would also give them an extra young arm, which could be key next year in getting that veteran starter in a midseason deal.

[monty57]

Dempster prefers going to the Dodgers. Of course this begs this question. Is Delgado enough for Greinke? We now know the Braves are willing to part with Delgado to rent Dempster but if they can't get him will they turn to Greinke? Adding Delgado to the mix of candidates for next year's rotation is interesting. It might allow them to consider moving Estrada into a late inning relief role. It would also give them an extra young arm, which could be key next year in getting that veteran starter in a midseason deal.

 

If Dempster puts the kibosh on this deal, it gives the Brewers a lot of leverage in dealing with the Braves. First, they can no longer go after Dempster, so that's off the table. Second, it is pretty easy to argue that while Dempster has had a good season, Greinke is the better pitcher. Therefore, if you were willing to give up Delgado for Dempster, you'll need to give up more for Greinke. The question is "how much more?"

 

I just wish Marcum was healthy, because Delgado for Marcum would be really nice.

[zzzmanwitz]

Dempster is planning on pitching for the Cubs tomorrow. This is very good news for the Brewers.

[RockCoCougars]

Cubs fans are now comparing Dempster to Dwight Howard on mlbtraderumors. Love it.

[TooLiveBrew]

Cubs fans are now comparing Dempster to Dwight Howard on mlbtraderumors. Love it.

Aren't NTCs fun?!

 

I appreciate that Melvin tends to stay away from NTCs. Iirc, only Gallardo & Braun have them right now.

[monty57]

Isn't Dempster's a 10/5 thing, and not a no-trade clause?

[nate82]

Cubs fans are now comparing Dempster to Dwight Howard on mlbtraderumors. Love it.

Aren't NTCs fun?!

 

I appreciate that Melvin tends to stay away from NTCs. Iirc, only Gallardo & Braun have them right now.

 

You forgot Hart, Wolf, and Lucroy also have limited no trade clauses.

 

Lucroy's and Wolf's no-trade clause are limited but do not state if they can block to certain teams or not.

 

From Cots: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/?page_id=71

 

Randy Wolf lhp

3 years/$29.75M (2010-12), plus 2013 club option

 

3 years/$29.75M (2010-12), plus 2013 club option

signed by Milwaukee as a free agent 12/9/09

10:$9.25M, 11:$9.5M, 12:$9.5M, 13:$10M club option ($1.5M buyout)

performance bonuses: $0.125M each for 190, 200 innings

$4M of 2010 salary deferred

$0.25M assignment bonus if traded

limited no-trade clause

 

 

Corey Hart of

3 years/$26.5M (2011-13)

 

3 years/$26.5M (2011-13)

signed extension with Milwaukee 8/2/10

$1M signing bonus

11:$6.5M, 12:$9M, 13:$10M

limited no-trade clause (may block deals to 15 clubs)

 

Jonathan Lucroy c

5 years/$11M (2012-16), plus 2017 option

 

5 years/$11M (2012-16), plus 2017 club option

signed extension with Milwaukee 3/26/12, replacing 1 year deal signed 3/12

$0.5M signing bonus

12:$0.5M, 13:$0.75M, 14:$2M, 15:$3M, 16:$4M, 17:$5.25M club option ($0.25M buyout)

if Lucroy qualifies as a Super 2 after 2012 season, salaries increase to $1.9M in 2013, $2.3M in 2014, $3.3M, $4.25M in 2015

limited no-trade protection

[TooLiveBrew]

Whoops, I sure did... nevermind... nothing to see here...

[RockCoCougars]

I think that Wolfie's NTC was only for the first year or two.... if any contenders want to bolster their rotations, he should be fair game.

[adambr2]

I can't see any contenders being interested in Wolf. Or any non-contenders, for that matter.

[Invader3K]

Sounds like this deal is dead now, with the Braves moving on from Dempster because of the delay.

 

I really don't get why Dempster wouldn't accept the trade to a contender. Supposedly he'd rather go to a west coast team like the Dodgers, but he only would have been in Atlanta for 2-3 months at this point. Apparently he was angry about finding out about the trade via the media.