There's a Great Story Trying to Happen in the 2013 Draft

[narwhalattack]

I really wish him luck!

[splitterpfj]

Pittsburgh is in now.

[splitterpfj]

Season Stats -

 

Again, this is Division II College...

 

83 IP, W-L 7-4, 2.6 ERA, 56 Hits, 1 HR, 24 BB, 95 K, .191 Batting Average Against

 

Last year, 82 IP, 2.2 ERA, 0 HR allowed, very similar BB/K

 

Those are all the stats I have.

[splitterpfj]

I talked to a scout tonight who had read his team's report on the kid. He said, "He's definitely a pitcher, he profiles as a kid with a realistic shot at the big leagues someday."

 

He told me he thinks most teams will label him as a "senior sign", which means, they'll wait until next year when his college eligibility is up, because he'll have no options and the price comes down. He said there is no doubt that this kid has the talent and the stats to be drafted, but he's a right-handed pitcher in D-II, so teams may decide paying him what it would take to buy out his final college year doesn't make sense, when you could just draft him next year.

 

I have no doubt, the kid would sign if he gets picked, and I know that many of these teams are very serious about him, but I could see that happening. If it does, I'll play therapist, and remind him how one more year of free college is a wonderful thing, and there seems to be zero doubt that he'll be picked in 2014.

 

I think he thought I would be disappointed to hear that, so he closed with, "Todd, guys like this make the big leagues, and guys like this who get drafted next year will reach the big leagues too."

[LouisEly]

Todd, I think this is why teams were asking him how much he'd sign for. Teams have different strategies, some of which are to skimp on signing bonuses for 7th-10th round picks to have more money to sign earlier picks. Here is an article that looks into that, and how teams signed some picks in that range for $1000:

 

http://www.foxnews.com/sports/2012/07/04/high-mlb-draft-picks-sign-for-1000-apiece/

 

I don't know how much of a need money is for your friend right now and in the immediate future, but with 10th round slot being $125K, if $60K is good enough to sign then it might be smart to tell teams you'd sign for half of 10th round slot. If $50K is good enough, tell them you'd sign for 1/3rd of 7th round slot. That can be a very valuable incentive for teams to draft someone, because if a pick doesn't sign then the team does not get that slot money included in their pool - they lose that slot value, and can't use it towards another pick.

[splitterpfj]

LE, I'm sure you're right, what they're weighing is, "Is it worth paying this kid enough to offset one year's college tuition, or should we just wait a year?"

 

After my conversation last night, I really feel good about the kid's future, this scout didn't hesitate at all to tell me he's a real talent who will get a shot.

 

In the long run, I suppose it doesn't matter much if he goes this year or next, and I'm sure there are some who would argue he would be better off by getting one more year of education before he plays pro ball, but I'm sure he'll be let down if he doesn't get picked this year. By all accounts, on talent and performance, he has earned a shot.

[TheCrew07]

In the long run, I suppose it doesn't matter much if he goes this year or next, and I'm sure there are some who would argue he would be better off by getting one more year of education before he plays pro ball, but I'm sure he'll be let down if he doesn't get picked this year. By all accounts, on talent and performance, he has earned a shot.

 

The quality of coaching seems to be hit or miss based on the college program, but just looking at the stats you posted it doesn't appear that he's being pushed to an uncomfortable number of pitches in his starts. If that's the case I think you are correct, it really doesn't matter what year he gets taken, and if he's a 10th rounder this year and improves over the winter and through his senior season then next year he'll have his degree and an improved draft position, which would net him a bigger bonus. It could be a win/win.

 

However if he's being asked to go 120+ pitches in start(s) then I'd say get him out there ASAP as I'd be concerned for the long-term health of his arm. There is also the injury risk to consider, not knowing the player, the program, or his mechanics, you would know better than us if that would be a concern.

 

Honestly if he's continually improving and in a good program I'd be inclined to get that degree if the draft round/bonus money isn't there and take another run at it next year because I believe in having an education to fall back on. It's sort of weird rooting for a kid when you don't know his name and only his back story, but I sincerely hope everything works out for the best for everyone involved!

 

He sounds like an excellent young man and I admire your dedication to helping him along the way.

[splitterpfj]

Thanks, Crew07.

 

I don't know about pitch counts, I've never seen that on him. I've never heard anyone express concerns over his mechanics - as far as I know, he's never missed a start.

[homer]

Seems odd that one bad game would drop him off a team's prospect list. Don't they have access to video of other games?

[splitterpfj]

Homer, I don't think they canned the idea of drafting him, I think they moved him from, "Do we pay for him this year?", to, "senior sign, we'll talk to you next spring."

[splitterpfj]

Kiddo really kicked butt at the Pirates' predraft workout today. He faced three hitters - 2 Ks and a groundout, and he was 92-93 today.

 

We'll see if it turns into anything next week, but I don't think he could have done any better than that.

[TooLiveBrew]

Any word on what round he's expecting to hear his name called?

[TheCrew07]

I actually spent about 30 minutes the other night on BA's top 500 draft database doing detective work trying to figure it out.

[splitterpfj]

I honestly don't know how to answer that.

 

If this was his senior year, I'd have a clear idea where he'd be picked, but right now I think almost anything can happen.

 

On talent, there are 8-10 teams that like him enough to draft him, but when you add in financial considerations, etc, that term "senior sign" pops up and you realize he might not go this year.

 

I had no idea how many layers there were to the decision making process. Honestly, I think there are too many...see the best player, take the best player, sign the best player...but things just aren't done that smoothly.

[splitterpfj]

What's happened is, several teams like him enough to draft him, but he's not a lefty, and he's D-2, so it gets to be a tough sell to get the team to buy out his last year of college. They want him, at their price, which means they want to take him next year.

 

He could still go today, but that's the way this broke.

 

Teams don't take the best player available, after the first few rounds, all sorts of things sway the decision makers. I had no idea things were like they are before I watched this happen.

 

If he gets picked, I'll post it here, if he does not, I'll wait a few days, and then start a new thread for him, giving his name, school, etc.

[splitterpfj]

He wasn't picked today, which isn't a big deal in the long run, but he's not happy about it. I'm sure that stands to reason.

 

I'll do a new thread, and introduce him, with some links to his stats, etc.

[narwhalattack]

There's always next year. I wish him the best for next year!

[3and2Fastball]

What's happened is, several teams like him enough to draft him, but he's not a lefty, and he's D-2, so it gets to be a tough sell to get the team to buy out his last year of college. They want him, at their price, which means they want to take him next year.

 

He could still go today, but that's the way this broke.

 

Teams don't take the best player available, after the first few rounds, all sorts of things sway the decision makers. I had no idea things were like they are before I watched this happen.

 

If he gets picked, I'll post it here, if he does not, I'll wait a few days, and then start a new thread for him, giving his name, school, etc.

 

I find this interesting. Is it possible for a player to just contact these teams and just say "look I want to play pro baseball. If you want me in your organization, go ahead and draft me, I'll be easy for you to sign under your terms>"?

[splitterpfj]

3and2, I don't know.

 

It's obvious, the teams are still trying to figure out how to live in this new world. In the first few rounds, the teams are taking the best talent, but then, a few rounds in, you see teams taking guys who will sign, including a lot of college seniors, who have no leverage.

 

If you have a year of eligibility left, you have to be awesome now to get drafted, you can't just be a guy the scouts like. It's all about the money, if the teams think it's worth writing a big check, they'll take you now, but for most guys now, the teams are content to just wait 'til next year.

 

You would think the teams would stick to their draft board and keep taking the guys who will help them the most, but it just doesn't feel that way to me. It feels like teams are willing to pay 3-4 guys, and then play it safe.

 

Look at the NBA and the NFL, a player declares himself eligible, and that's the year he is drafted. In baseball, they draft high school guys, JUCO guys, college juniors, and college seniors, and the teams know going in - they won't sign anywhere near 40 players, even though they go through the process of drafting that many. I think this makes the process very sloppy and inefficient.

[TheCrew07]

I still think it has the potential to be a win\win.

 

He'll get his degree, have something to fall back on, he has the chance to improve again, and maybe get a bigger bonus next year.

 

I am sorry for your and probably his disappointment in the system and the fact that he didn't get drafted, and I do agree that baseball still has many issues.

 

Hopefully things work out better next year.

[LouisEly]

In baseball, they draft high school guys, JUCO guys, college juniors, and college seniors, and the teams know going in - they won't sign anywhere near 40 players, even though they go through the process of drafting that many. I think this makes the process very sloppy and inefficient.

I'm thinking three things here. First, looking at this statement, I'm wondering about supply/demand. Factoring in all of the above, how many guys might there be nationally who profile similar to your friend (RH, similar size/height, similar or better stuff or HS kids who project to have similar or better stuff)? How does that number compare to the number of draft spots used on RH pitching (40 rounds x 30/round x 50% pitchers x 70% RH ~ 420 RH pitchers)? What's the supply/demand for his profile?

 

Second, when it comes to negotiating, a general rule of thumb is whoever throws out a number first loses. When they asked what he would sign for, did he ask them any questions like:

*What have you signed pitchers for who are similar to me?

*Money aside, where would you draft me based purely on ability?

Asking these questions might give you an idea of what they are thinking as to how much they would be willing to sign you for. That's your starting point. Part of negotiating is to give things that have little cost to you but high value to them. I mentioned this earlier, but if he was willing to sign for $40K then he could say, "If you draft me in rounds 7-10 I'll sign for 30% of slot value so that you'll have more bonus pool money to offer earlier picks." You're not giving up much (you'd sign for $40K anyway), but you're giving back value to them (more bonus pool money for earlier picks) which may give them a greater incentive to draft you.

 

Third, it never hurts to get feedback. Try calling up the people he talked to and say, "I'm disappointed I didn't get drafted. What were the things I needed to do better in order to get drafted so I can work on those next season?" See what they say. Maybe there's something you didn't anticipate. Remember, the scouts who saw him aren't the only scouts for those clubs. There are other scouts pulling for "their guys" to get drafted too, so maybe the scout could give you some feedback about what the people above them thought and why they went with other guys. Look at who those teams drafted.

 

It's a learning experience, but it can also be motivation. Hopefully he puts himself in a position where teams would be crazy not to draft him next year.

[splitterpfj]

I have no doubt this will work out for the young man. There were 8-10 teams talking to him, this was not a kid who was hoping the one scout he met could make something happen.

 

He's not happy, of course, but he's fine, he knows this is about the system, much more than about him. Barring an arm injury, or something weird like that, I'm sure he'll be picked next time around, and he'll get his shot.

 

He's done a great job in college, he's had three strong seasons, and he's been the best pitcher in his conference each of the last two years. He played in a summer league last year, setting a league K record in his first start, and he'll be playing this summer too.

 

Assuming health, for the 2014 draft, he'll be a kid with a 92 MPH fastball, three additional pitches, sound mechanics and no history of arm issues, who has just used up his college eligibility...that kid, gets picked.

[splitterpfj]

Congrats to Crew2323, who sent me a PM today, correctly guessing the subject of this thread.

[TheCrew07]

I've been thinking about this situation quite a bit since Sunday and I honestly believe the only way the current situation will improve is if players have to opt into the draft.

 

If you are a HS kid and you don't get drafted then you are free to go to school. However, if you are drafted you are bound to your team and slot value per the "opt in" contract you signed to be part of the draft. Same if you are a college junior, if you opt in and get drafted that's it, there's no going back to college for you.

 

I don't understand why MLB allows amateur players so much leverage? The only amateur players who really benefit in the system are the top 5% or so, those in the first 2-3 rounds, all of the rest not so much. With the theme (and rightly so) that teams are trying to get the most monetary value of out of each pick, we'll continue to see picks flip flipped around like with KC this year as they really liked a guy but just couldn't pull the trigger on him at a certain slot given his performance and injury history, so they made him their 2nd pick in the 1st.

 

We'll continue to see senior college talent taken way before it should be in order to free up money to go after 1 or 2 guys who have fallen because no one can take the risk of a player not signing because of the way the pool money works.

 

Colby's idea about combining the international and domestic pools makes a great deal of sense to me, teams would have more flexibility to go in whichever direction they think has the greatest value for them. However the idea of draft picks holding teams hostage drives me nuts and has to stop.

 

Make players declare for the draft and end this nonsense.

[Bombers]

Make players declare for the draft and end this nonsense.

I agree Crew07. This is how it is in football. (Basketball is slighly different as players can sign with an international team (Rubio) and then spurn their draft team.)

 

Why MLB allows for this is beyond me. It isn't in the best interest of the players union nor MLB, so I guess I just don't get it.