Reds series 7/20-7/22 Biggest series of the year to date

[slappzilla]

I could not find another thread to throw this into so I started another one.

 

Now that the Brewers have won the last two series, this weekend series against the Reds is huge.

 

With Votto out, and Estrada/Gallardo/Fiers on the mound (3 pitchers that have been solid lately), I think 2-3 is possible. The sweep seems a stretch, but, if you believe, the crew could do that too and boom, Brewers are at .500.

 

Here's the thing though, even if the Brewers get to .500, they'd be 4 or more games back. Could winning this series be a bad thing? I'm serious.

 

If the Brewers miss the playoffs, and they sell no one, that is going to stink.

[patrickgpe]

they have to sweep or else they should be sellers. While winning 2/3 sounds nice it still puts the brewers 6 back, and even worse there are still 3 teams that the brewers have to pass to win the division. It also would put the brewers 6 back of the wild card with about 6 teams to have to pass. A sweep gives Melvin alot to think about, anything else shouldn't.

[Invader3K]

Yeah, I agree. This is basically a sweep or bust. Unfortunately, I think they'll probably win 2 of 3 and muddy the situation even more.

[JohnBriggs12]

Yeah, I agree. This is basically a sweep or bust. Unfortunately, I think they'll probably win 2 of 3 and muddy the situation even more.

 

How is the situation muddy? They are 5 1/2 back of the 2nd wild card now. They are right on the heels of 3 of the teams ahead of them in that race. Winning this series puts them likely within 6 games of either wild card spot. Sunday is July 22. There's still 9 games after that before the deadline.

 

No way do the wave the white flag if they win this series nor should they.

[brewmann04]

I would think a sweep is needed and said they needed to go 7-2 in these 3 series not to be sellers.

[slappzilla]

No way do the wave the white flag if they win this series nor should they.

I agree with consenus, if they don't sweep, sell.

 

In my first post, I was still thinking they're arguably still sellers even if they sweep, seriously.

 

Do you realize if they do win the series, taking 2-3, and they're 5.5 games back, that's still a lot?

[igor67]

I think they need the sweep and either to pass the Cards or get within 5 of the Pirates to really look like they are in it. My thinking going in was 8-1, 7-2 works but they need a little help from other teams to makes close the gap. If anything going on a hot streak like 7-2 and not being any closer at the end of it is disheartening.

[JohnBriggs12]

I think they need the sweep and either to pass the Cards or get within 5 of the Pirates to really look like they are in it. My thinking going in was 8-1, 7-2 works but they need a little help from other teams to makes close the gap. If anything going on a hot streak like 7-2 and not being any closer at the end of it is disheartening.

 

You are not looking at it the right way. The issue has never been the number of games back, but the number of teams ahead of them. 6-7 games to make up on 1 team over 70 games isn't that daunting. St. Louis made up a lot more than that in a month last year. Since the break, in a week by just going 4-2, they've gained 3 games on the Cardinals, 4 games on the Mets, 2 on the Dodgers, and 2 on Arizona and 1 on Miami, the latter two who they are now tied with. They haven't lost ground to anyone. Now they are within just 4 of every team between them and the current WC teams. That isn't insurmountable.

 

If they were to "just" win 2 of 3 from the Reds, they'll even be in better shape relative to the field competing for the WC spots.

 

The Brewers still have 9 games left with the Astros (6 of which are at home), and 7 with the Cubs. Now the Cubs have played well lately, but won't be the same team if they unload Dempster, and/or Garza and some key vets off their bench.

 

As to the Reds, not only will Votto miss this series, he'll likely miss the series in Milwaukee Aug 6-8 too. That has to be factored in as well.

[brwrsfan]

This series is obviously huge, but it's really the 12 games before the deadline that matter. Realistically, they have to go probably 8-4 or 9-3 during that stretch to be "back in it" before the deadline.

 

This team hasn't really shown it's capable of doing anything close to that. Especially when those 12 games are @ Reds, @ Philly (who is playing much better now), Washington and Houston. Maybe they get rolling, but I think it's more the record after the next 10-12 games than just this series. Granted, if they kept swept, it's over.

[Outlander]

If they win the series against the Reds, Phillies and Nationals they will have a shot at the division and wildcard so they won't sell at the deadline. While it sure would be nice to sweep a series it isn't necessary. It is also daunting to see all the teams ahead of them but in reality they still control their own destiny, good or bad.

[jerichoholicninja]

Sweep or swept won't make a difference. This team isn't going to the playoffs unless the Pirates and Reds planes crash into each other.

[torts]

so glad the phillies are not a good team right now

[torts]

I alkso want to point out that the month of august has the brewers playing 10 games against teams over .500. 3 vs STL, 3 vs CIN, and 4 vs PIT. the rest, all under .500. 18 games, with 7 of them against the Cubs and 4 against Houston, both teams who could be empty of talent by then.

[slappzilla]

Was that sarcastic?

 

They're playing well as of late. They have all their injured guys back.

[derflotr]

2 out of 3 on the road in Cincinnati would be outstanding. The Brewers aren't NEARLY as bad as everyone pretends they are. Take two out of three this weekend and they have 68 games to close a 6 game deficit (unless the Pirates sweep, of course). They could have a hot month and be within a game or two of first place.

[DHonks]

To sort of go off of what JohnBriggs said, the Brewers have to play well, but if they take care of business within the division, that's huge (we gain and they lose). Also the division isn't based on how well we do, but how well we do relative to others. People seem to think that the Reds, Pirates, and Cards are going to continue at their current paces. Remember the '11 Pirates? Weren't they in first place right now? Or I believe the '98 Brewers only a few back in the division entering Sept. How about the Cardinals last year? They played great ball in the second half and still lost ground.

 

Without Votto, expect the Reds to come crashing down a bit. With the Brewers healthy and the rotation doing great, expect us to play better (.600 or .650 ball). The Cards still aren't that deep. The Pirates are the Pirates.

[rwa12]

The next few series are all important. As long as they continue to win series, they will not sell. MA and DM both are not guys who like to write off a season. If they continue to take series, they will view it as a chance at the playoffs. The Brewers aren't going to use the Florida model. MA wants competitive teams, he wants the playoff push. Not saying this is right or wrong, I think he just conducts business differently. I think much to the dismay of this forum, the Brewers will buy at the deadline (not necessarily a big move), rather than sell.

[adamds22]

It's really the next 3 series that will tell a lot. We have a pretty tough stretch the next 3 series with @Reds, @Phillies (facing Halladay and Lee) and vs Nationals (looks like we will be missing Strasburg and Gonzalez though) although starting with the reds I think we need to take 2 of 3 there or we need to start taking offers for Greinke/Krod at the very least. We do that and we need to have a winning record vs the Phillies and the Nationals and then we are in a position where we have a legit shot at making a run for the playoffs.

 

If we make the playoffs we do have one hell of a 1/2 punch with Greinke and Gallardo so anything can happen at that point.

[rluzinski]

2 out of 3 on the road in Cincinnati would be outstanding. The Brewers aren't NEARLY as bad as everyone pretends they are. Take two out of three this weekend and they have 68 games to close a 6 game deficit (unless the Pirates sweep, of course). They could have a hot month and be within a game or two of first place.

 

I don't think the Brewers are a bad team. On paper, they could still be the best team in the NL Central. The problem is, they aren't 7 games better than the Pirates AND Reds. And no one is suggesting that there are no scenarios that get the Brewers in the playoffs this year. Those scenarios are simply unlikely.

 

Baseball Prospectus (who estimates the Brewers to be one game better going forward than the Reds and several games better than the Pirates) gives the Brewers about a 2% chance of winning the division and a 5% chance of getting to play one game to make the playoffs. We can argue if those numbers are exactly correct but we all should KNOW that whatever the odds, they are small.

 

We can call this the biggest series of the year in terms of whether the Brewers make the playoffs, and some will probably call several more series "the biggest of the year" before all is said and done. The odds suggest, however, that the series that determined whether the Brewers would make the playoffs this year have already occurred. This next week will simply determine whether we are buyers and sellers, which may have a major impact in subsequent years but will most likely have little impact this year.

 

"Without Votto, expect the Reds to come crashing down a bit."

 

As I pointed out in another threat, we should expect no such thing. He's worth about 1 win extra a month, which is huge. Common sense tells us no player can be worth an average of even 2 wins a month.

[3and2Fastball]

If we make the playoffs we do have one hell of a 1/2 punch with Greinke and Gallardo so anything can happen at that point.

 

Plus the Garza or Dempster or even Hamels that Melvin will go all in for....

 

I think the Brew Crew will continue winning and Melvin will be a buyer at the deadline.

 

Of course, said predicted winning streak depends a lot on the health of #8

[adamds22]

If we make the playoffs we do have one hell of a 1/2 punch with Greinke and Gallardo so anything can happen at that point.

 

Plus the Garza or Dempster or even Hamels that Melvin will go all in for....

 

I think the Brew Crew will continue winning and Melvin will be a buyer at the deadline.

 

Of course, said predicted winning streak depends a lot on the health of #8

 

No way we add a starter at the deadline with how Fiers and Estrada have been doing and hopefully getting Marcum back sometime soon here. Definitely not a glaring need for us by any means. IF, which is a big if we do become buyers the only positions we should be looking at are relief pitching and SS and should not give up any of our top ~10 prospects.

[Roderick]

The next few series are all important. As long as they continue to win series, they will not sell. MA and DM both are not guys who like to write off a season. If they continue to take series, they will view it as a chance at the playoffs. MA wants competitive teams, he wants the playoff push. Not saying this is right or wrong, I think he just conducts business differently. I think much to the dismay of this forum, the Brewers will buy at the deadline (not necessarily a big move), rather than sell.

I agree with the above scenario. If the Brewers take at least 2 from Cincy and then has at least 5 more wins before the July 31st game, DM will probably trade for some bullpen help if anything.

[Ennder]

I think we should be sellers but I just don't see it as realistic if we win 2 out of 3 in this series. If we are still one good winning streak away from the playoffs I just don't see ownership selling at that point.

 

The Dodgers are scuffling, I'm not buying the Pirates at all. The Cardinals aren't playing all that great as of late. Votto is hurt. The Mets have tanked. If you assume the Braves are going to get one wild card it is perfectly reasonable to think that we only have to beat out 2 of the 3 teams ahead of us in the division to make a playoff game. I just don't see them selling with those conditions.

[PrinceEatMeat]

Just because Melvin initially said he'd wait until after these 9 games doesn't mean he won't end up waiting longer based on the outcome. If the Brewers can take 2 of 3 in Cincy, he may wait it out longer to see how they do in Philly and the first few games at home against Washington. He can afford to wait if they can keep making up ground. 2 out of 3, or a sweep, would put off the decision. 1 out of 3, or getting swept, would likely push him to sell. This is a HUGE series. It could go a long way in ultimately determining the future of this team. I think best case is probably a sweep either way. I obviously would prefer to get the sweep, but it's gotta be one way or the other at this point. This team needs a direction. If they end up in limbo, don't sell, and miss the playoffs, that could cripple the future. They need to sell and reload for the future, or make a serious run.

[brewtown82]

There is a middle ground here, guys. The Brewers could be too good to be sellers but not good enough to go "all in," either. That doesn't mean they can't be players at the deadline. The Brewers have some pieces that other teams might be interested in, and obviously they have some needs (bullpen, SS, bench bat most notable) to address. What's to stop them from doing a deal that helps them this year and in the future.