The Bullpen - Would You Make Henderson the Closer

[PKBadger]

Axford for sure

Parra - I would guess he sticks around because he'll be in the last year of arby and is lefthanded

Henderson? Hopefully he shows something the last two months

 

Would Rogers potentially be a bullpen guy? Let's say that Gallardo and Fiers are rotation locks. That leaves 3 spots for Peralta, Thornburg, Rogers and Estrada. If Marcum comes back, that's only 2 spots. At this point I don't think there's much to gain from running Peralta and Rogers through Nashville again. So who's a starter and who's a reliever?

[TheCrew07]

So who's a starter and who's a reliever?

 

My simple answer would be the pitchers with the higher upside. I like what TB did bumping Sonnanstine (4.38 ERA in 2008) to the pen to make room for higher ceiling starting pitchers. Certainly if some those guys fail they could be bumped to the pen but I don't see any reason why Narveson (pending recovery) and Estrada should stand in the way of better talent.

 

I'd rather not repeat the Parra saga of starting, then the pen, then starting, then back to the pen so we're never really sure what he have. Give the younger players the room to fail for a bit and let them grow into their roles, at least 1 full season. If the production never approaches the ceiling after a couple of years or the organization is convinced the young man isn't going to cut after it that first season then you can bump said pitcher to the pen and bring back Estrada or Narveson or call-up the next young pitcher.

 

If both Thornburg and Peralta are ready for 2013 there's simply no reason for them to repeat AAA just so we're breaking in fewer young starters at 1 time. I'm not concerned with super 2 status given their age and the fact we really don't have anyone better standing in their way, Greinke is already gone and it doesn't seem like that Marcum and Wolf will be retained. We can easily drop Gallardo type contracts onto any young starters that succeed locking them up into their early 30s then let them walk or trade them.

 

Out of this coming wave of prospects; Peralta, Thornburg, Burgos, Hellweg, Rogers, and Pena, the only one who doesn't really have control concerns is Burgos. Hiram has pitchability like Fiers (BA actually picked Burgos for best control in 2010) and while I find it difficult to project best case scenarios for any prospect I'm willing to acknowledge what that the 2 guys with the least "stuff" in Fiers and Burgos might ultimately end up being the best performers but right now that's nearly impossible to call.

[Funketown]

There may be 'worse' bullpens if you use stats or WAR, but keep in mind, that on a lot of teams starters have trouble getting through the fifth inning. That generally hasn't been the case with the Brewers this year. I'd expect a bad team that regularly uses their pen in the 4th inning with mop up guys, etc to have worse bullpen stats than the Brewers.

 

Perhaps a better measure of how bad the BP has been is the fact that they are dead last in MLB in WPA, at -6.05. ERA obviously treats an inning in a 10-1 blowout the same as an inning in a 2-1 game, while WPA does not. Bullpens are funny in that you can have an elite bullpen with a 4.50 ERA if you have one mop up clown who gives up 10 extra runs in every blowout but gets through the game, while you can also have a bad bullpen with a 4.50 ERA if every single person is a 4.50 ERA type guy.

 

(Since 2010, there has been one team to post a lower WPA than the Brewers; the 2010 D-Backs posted a -8.37.)

[torts]

I cant imagine doug going through this off season without signing at least one rotation arm. theres no way he goes into 2013 with 4 home-grown arms and Estrada in the rotation. Marcum and Wolf are most likely gone, but i'd have to think out of all the FA SP's this winter, and the small window teams have now to tender offers and resign after the world series, that DM could find someone to come in and fill a spot.

[torts]

the below list are the SP FA for 2013. I removed all the pitchers with team/player options so we see how many rotation arms there are available. I REALLY hope Melvin does not pass up on everyone, and there are a LOT of relief pitchers hitting the market as well. it'll be interesting to see how quickly some of these guys resign with their teams and come off the market.

 

Starting pitchers

Erik Bedard (34)

Joe Blanton (32)

Bartolo Colon (40)

Aaron Cook (34)

Kevin Correia (32)

Doug Davis (37)

Ryan Dempster (36)

Zach Duke (30)

Jeff Francis (32)

Freddy Garcia (37)

Zack Greinke (28)

Jeremy Guthrie (34)

Rich Harden (31)

Livan Hernandez (38)

Edwin Jackson (29)

Hiroki Kuroda (38)

Colby Lewis (33)

Francisco Liriano (29)

Kyle Lohse (34)

Rodrigo Lopez (37)

Derek Lowe (40)

Shaun Marcum (31)

Jason Marquis (34)

Daisuke Matsuzaka (32)

Brandon McCarthy (29)

Kevin Millwood (38)

Jamie Moyer (50)

Ramon Ortiz (40)

Roy Oswalt (35)

Carl Pavano (37)

Brad Penny (35)

Joel Pineiro (34)

Anibal Sanchez (29)

Jonathan Sanchez (30)

Joe Saunders (32)

Chien-Ming Wang (33)

Kip Wells (36)

Chris Young (34)

Carlos Zambrano (32)

[slappzilla]

Am I out of line if I say I think Jim Henderson should be given a shot at the closer role?

[chad25]

I went through the games one by one and i believe the brewers record, when giving the bullpen a 3 runs or less lead, is 25-26. THAT IS TERRIBLE!

[RockCoCougars]

I went through the games one by one and i believe the brewers record, when giving the bullpen a 3 runs or less lead, is 25-26. THAT IS TERRIBLE!

 

Interesting, thanks. If they have lost 26 games when handing the bullpen a lead, that has to put them close to record pace. It seems like an insanely high number, but it's got to be close to 10 in July alone.

[TooLiveBrew]

I'd rather not repeat the Parra saga of starting, then the pen, then starting, then back to the pen so we're never really sure what he have. Give the younger players the room to fail for a bit and let them grow into their roles, at least 1 full season.

And Parra is the perfect example of what you mean when you talk about letting a young SP pitch until he fails in that role, then move him to the 'pen.

 

And chad25, that sounds like it was a lot of work -- thanks for slogging through the games, interesting.

[markedman5]

All I can say to that is wow.......

 

 

I went through the games one by one and i believe the brewers record, when giving the bullpen a 3 runs or less lead, is 25-26. THAT IS TERRIBLE!

[Ennder]

The funny thing is you could probably take the 5 worst full time RP in baseball and stick them out there and expect to have better results than we have seen in the past 2 months. It baffles the mind just how horrible this stretch has been.

[slappzilla]

Last nights game...

 

Granted Ax got out of it, but did you see the last out? WAAAYYYYYY too close. I thought for sure Martinez was going to be called safe and the Brewers were looking at their second blown save of the game.

[slappzilla]

This stems from another thread but I had to repost it here.

 

If someone had told me at the seasons begining that on July 31st, the Brewers would have two guys on their roster who are in legit competition for NL ROTY, along with a legit candidate for MVP and the pitcher they traded could have worked his way into the CY race with a good final 2 months, I'd guarantee the team would be winning the division right now.

 

but the team isn't...

 

...because of the bullpen.

 

Can't get that out of my mind right now. man.

[djoctagone]

if the goal is to audition minor leaguers for bullpen roles for 2013 and beyond, why are they keeping an injured manny parra on the active roster?

 

one can only assume that the brewers hope to be able to trade him before 31 august, and you can't trade a player on the disabled list.

[Team Canada]

Good grief. It's time for Henderson to close full time.

[adambr2]

Manny Parra has not pitched since July 24th. Is there any good reason that the Brewers have chosen to go with a 24 man roster since then?

[PrinceEatMeat]

FWIW, Parra was available tonight. However, I don't understand why they didn't DL him a few weeks ago instead of going with a 24 man roster for this whole time.

[adambr2]

I could understand going day to day on a guy like Braun that you wanted back in there as quickly as possible and it just happened to be something that lingered for 15 days, but good grief, its Manny freaking Parra. If its been a week and he's not showing signs of returning, just make a retroactive move and give someone from the minors a look, its not we couldn't afford to try another arm out in this pen. Poor roster management.

[mothershipconnection]

I've spent more time watching Big Bang Theory reruns than Brewers games over the past month. I just can't sit through 2.5 hours to watch them wet their pants in the end.

[Invader3K]

Instead of blaming "the bullpen", shouldn't we be saying "K-Rod and Axford" at this point?

[DuWayne Steurer]

Insanity: Doing the same thing over and over, and expecting a different result.

 

For the love of God RRR, make it stop....

[Funketown]

Instead of blaming "the bullpen", shouldn't we be saying "K-Rod and Axford" at this point?

 

Probably. If you look at the number of runs given up by other relievers who have pitched 30+ innings, Loe 3.94, Veras 4.80, Parra 4.70, Dillard 4.38, I'd say Loe, Veras, and Parra have been just a bit disappointing and Dillard has pretty much been as expected. K-Rod and Axford are both at 2-2.5 ER/9 above where I expected them to be.

[RockCoCougars]

The '7th inning guy', the '8th inning guy' and the closer have all been brutal. It's tough to win when you don't leave starters in the game and those gas cans are called upon to protect a lead. The other guys in the pen have been up and down, but that's to be expected on the back end of the pen.

 

Time to give Henderson a chance to close. From what I've read this morning, Roenicke has made that decision. Based on Brewer history, I wouldn't be a bit surprised if he was almost perfect in save opportunities down the stretch.

[pebadger]

While Ax and K-Rod have been the big problem, I don't think we should undersell the fact that there have been a fair number of occasions where other guys have acted as the set-up man for the opposition, taking a big deficit and turning it into a manageable one. There is failure enough for everyone to claim their piece.

 

There are certainly problems of a technical nature going on here, but at the risk of angering the saber-gods, there is something mental going on with both sides in a lot of these games as well. The Brewers can be had in the late innings and the opposition knows it. They've seen the tape, know how to attack and the confidence of opposing offenses late in games is palpable. On the flip side, the Brewer pen has no answers and it seems like guys are just doing the same things over and over, hoping for better results and refusing to believe that this isn't 2011 anymore. This is more than just the opposite of the happy statistical coincidence of bunch of guys having career years.

 

It reminds me in a lot of ways of the Packers in 2008. They were creeping along at 5-5, but there were problems with that team that became more and more apparent.. Later in the season everybody saw those problems and everyone exploited them and they finished 6-10. A lot of those losses late in games seemed to be 'unlucky', and to an extent they were, but the team was in a position where they had problems which had no immediate solutions and the opposition knew that if they just gave themselves a chance to win it late they probably would.

[slappzilla]

Loe tanked one not too long ago.

 

It's been mostly Ax and KRod cause the starters have been going 6-7 strong. The starters aren't really giving the middle relief a chance to blow the game. The few times they did, Ax came in early and did a solid job and Henderson shut the door.