The Bullpen - Would You Make Henderson the Closer

[slappzilla]

The Brewers, as of today, 7/17/2012, have blown 16 saves this year.

 

The Brewers, as of today, 7/17/2012, are 8 games out of the division lead.

 

If the Brewers had just cut the blown saves in half, they'd be atop the division right now.

 

When this season began, I had little to no worries about the bullpen. I remember MLB channel, when they previewed the Brewers on the 30 clubs in 30 days program, gave the Brewers bullpen a 4/5 rating, with wild thing Mitch Williams giving them a 5/5 rating.

 

Despite all the injuries and the slow starts/under-performers of the offensive side of the ball, The Brewers would be atop their division if it wasn't for the bullpen. There is only one guy in the brewer bullpen with an ERA under 4...and it's KRod....and his ERA isn't that far off from 4...and one would assume he won't still be on the team come Aug 1st.

 

The bullpen single handedly has taken down the 2012 Milwaukee Brewers.

[chuckiehacks]

While I agree the bullpen has been generally craptacular, that stat is a little mis-leading, as any lead blown in (i believe) the 7th or later counts as a blown save. Some of those still turn into wins.

[Invader3K]

That's a very sobering analysis. Very frustrating...if Axford hadn't pulled a complete Turnbow this year, we'd be doing fine and talking about being buyers instead of sellers. Hard to pin the season's woes on one guy, but there it is.

[slappzilla]

While I agree the bullpen has been generally craptacular, that stat is a little mis-leading, as any lead blown in (i believe) the 7th or later counts as a blown save. Some of those still turn into wins.

Fair point. I should have mentioned that, but that's still 16 games in which the Brewers had a lead, that the bullpen blew the lead.

 

I don't know how to look up how many of those 16 games the Brewers ended up pulling it out, but I bet it's 2-3 TOPS.

[dlk9s]

While I agree the bullpen has been generally craptacular, that stat is a little mis-leading, as any lead blown in (i believe) the 7th or later counts as a blown save. Some of those still turn into wins.

I was thinking the same thing, but then figured it all gets evened out by the tie games the bullpen blows or the close games that the bullpen allows to get blown open.

 

Either way, it sucks!

[chuckiehacks]

While I agree the bullpen has been generally craptacular, that stat is a little mis-leading, as any lead blown in (i believe) the 7th or later counts as a blown save. Some of those still turn into wins.

I was thinking the same thing, but then figured it all gets evened out by the tie games the bullpen blows or the close games that the bullpen allows to get blown open.

 

Either way, it sucks!

 

Exactly. We're just splitting hairs on suckitude at this point.

[slappzilla]

If you want, we can ignore the blown saves, and move onto bullpen losses...

 

Axford - 6 losses

KRod - 4 losses

 

^ that right there, 10 losses in half a season from what are considered two solid closers, is brutal.

 

Veras - 3 losses

Loe - 3 losses

Parra - 3 losses

Dillard - 2 losses

Perez - 1 loss

 

22 total losses chalked up by the Brewers bullpen in half a season this year.

 

 

For comparison, let's look at other teams in the NL Central

 

Brewers bullpen has lost 22 games, with 16 blown saves

 

Reds bullpen has lost 7 games, with 9 blown saves

Pirates bullpen has lost 8 games, with 6 blown saves

Cards bullpen has lost 17 games, with 14 blown saves

Stros bullpen has lost 18 games, with 9 blown saves

[jmeks23]

Well...the Cardinals blew 26 saves last season I believe, and most were around this time and prior.

[slappzilla]

The Cards turn around combined with the Braves implosion last year is ridiculously far fetched when it comes to saying the Brewers can do the same and hope for the same out of someone else.

[rluzinski]

You can blow 4 saves in one game and still win, so we need to look at it from another perspective.

 

I think we estimated in a previous thread about a week ago that the bullpen was about 4 wins below average when you simply look at their runs against vs the average bullpen this year. Maybe it's 5 now. That is context neutral, though. But as I mentioned then, context is very important and there's no real way to know what the Brewer's record would have been with a better performing bullpen. They could have given up 40 less runs and actually blown more games. I think 5 wins is a reasonable guess though.

[jjfanec]

Bullpen losses seems like a good stat. Then through in games when we were down 1 and the bullpen gave up even more runs and I think you have an idea of how bad this bullpen has been. I dont think it is a stretch at all to say this bullpen has cost us a chance at the division this season. I would say the bullpen has been 5-6 games worse than even average. 6 games would put us at 48-41 which would be a game or two out. With injuries to our 3 and 5 starter and our starting SS, C, and 1B I would say that is a really good season.

[trwi7]

The Brewers are 7-8 in games where they have blown a save this year (Loe and Axford both blew saves on 5/11 vs the Cubs) the Brewers ended up winning that game 8-7.

 

Rodriguez Blown Save 4/17, Win

Parra Blown Save 4/21, Win

Loe and Axford Blown Save 5/11, Win

Veras Blown Save 5/27, Loss

Rodriguez Blown Save 6/7, Win

Axford Blown Save 6/13, Loss

Axford Blown Save 6/14, Loss

Loe Blown Save 6/18, Win

Axford Blown Save 6/18, Loss

Loe Blown Save 6/23, Loss

Rodriguez Blown Save 7/1, Win

Rodriguez Blown Save 7/3, Win

Axford Blown Save 7/4, Loss

Loe Blown Save 7/14, Loss

Axford Blown Save 7/16, Loss

[slappzilla]

So the Brewer bats bailed out the bullpen 7 out of the 16 times the bullpen blew a save.

 

That's still not good on the bullpens part.

 

The 22 loses are are real kicker as well.

[Fear The Chorizo]

Even blown saves that end up being Brewer wins have an effect, because relievers end up logging more innings that lead to them wearing down as the season moves along.

 

so many different variables to consider, but I think we're all in agreement with the notion that if the bullpen had been even league average at this point, the Brewers would be near the top of the division and probably looking to be buyers to get them over the hump with a solid shot at one of the wildcards - pretty much right where many on this board had them pegged at the start of the season.

 

The myriad of injuries and the loss of Fielder sure hasn't helped, but the bullpen is the reason why this team has been so inconsistent with no signs of turning it around.

[pretendastronaut]

So the Brewer bats bailed out the bullpen 7 out of the 16 times the bullpen blew a save.

 

That's still not good on the bullpens part..

 

It's not good, but it also gives you back 7 of those 8 games you said would have put us on top of the division.

 

Yes, the bullpen has been a very frustrating let-down this season, but they aren't alone in the blame of the season.

[slappzilla]

How are they not?

 

If they bullpen performs at league average, the Brewers are atop of the division right now.

[pretendastronaut]

In your lead post, you said if the Brewers had only 8 blown saves, versus 16, then they'd be atop the division. But it was shown that they still went on to win 7 of those 16 games, in effect nullifying those 7 blown saves, which basically disproves that statement.

 

What exactly constitutes a league average bullpen? Yes, the bullpen is below MLB average for saves and holds, but they also lead the all of baseball in entering the game in high leverage situations and tied ball games, which is going to skew the numbers. They also lead in guys pitching on zero days rest.

 

I'm not defending the bullpen from any blame, it has certainly costs to many games so far, but I don't think the blame resides with only one aspect of this team. The starting pitching has had it's struggles (and in fact, the Brewers are above league average on bailing out SPs who were on the hook for a loss when they left the game) and the offense has certainly had it's struggles, playing at or below league average most of the season.

[jjfanec]

But that stat also shows our bats probably could have won us some of the game that we were tied or down one in before the bullpen imploded. The blown save stat doesnt take those games into account.

[bani1717]

As others have mentioned, blown saves are a pretty much useless stat for evaluating the situation. Another variable to consider is this: If we blow lead in the 7th inning, you can basically "expect" (from a probabilistic perspective) that the Brewers will score 1.5 runs in that span... so the bullpen giving up 1 run in that span shouldn't necessarily even count against them as a game that they cost us.

 

While the bullpen has certainly been a problem, "single handedly" is a stretch at best in my opinion.

[FVBrewerFan]

"Easily the main reason" is how I would describe it. I think 5 games vs a "good" bullpen is a conservative estimate. That 10 game swing makes them a contender. There are no metrics that will satisfy everyone here, obviously there's far more to it that blown saves.

[slappzilla]

In your lead post, you said if the Brewers had only 8 blown saves, versus 16, then they'd be atop the division. But it was shown that they still went on to win 7 of those 16 games, in effect nullifying those 7 blown saves, which basically disproves that statement.

and I mentioned immediately that I was wrong when I said that.

 

the 22 losses that stem from the bullpen can't be argued though.

 

Cut that in half...

[Fear The Chorizo]

Alot has been made of how the Brewers weren't a 96 win team on paper last season, and that good luck was on their side. I'd argue most of that good luck was tied to their bullpen being great for them, especially down the stretch. Having 2-3 shutdown relievers really does shorten the game and limit the opponent's opportunities to win games. People argue whether designated 7th & 8th inning guys and designated "closers" are valuable from a payroll standpoint using statistical analysis, and I tend to think the only time that's a solid way to manage a bullpen is if the manager has quality relievers to fill those roles. Last season RR got great (and unsustainable) production out of Axford & KRod, plus quality innings from Hawkins, Saito, and Loe (once he was put in a role that fit him).

 

This season, I'd argue that even with the injuries, the Brewers aren't a sub-.500 team if their bullpen was league average. It's not the only reason the Brewers aren't 15 games over .500 currently, but the disappointing bullpen is the main reason the Brewers haven't been able to get themselves into contention in a wide open NL this season.

[rluzinski]

When something bad happens, it's human nature to always want to limit the blame to as few individuals as possible. One person is obviously preferred but a small group can work as well. I guess it just makes it easier to vent our anger/frustration/unhappiness that way?

[Oxy]

When something bad happens, it's human nature to always want to limit the blame to as few individuals as possible. One person is obviously preferred but a small group can work as well. I guess it just makes it easier to vent our anger/frustration/unhappiness that way?

 

Not really. It's just that the bullpen has easily been the most disappointing aspect of the season so far. It was supposed to be a strength and has turned into the biggest weakness. There really isn't anybody else to blame. Weeks stunk for 2+ months and Ramirez stunk for a month and a half, but they have both turned it around. Then there is all of the injuries, and the bullpen. Everybody else has been great or has played as expected (other than Wolf, but he wasn't really counted on as a strength). In addition, Maldonado, Aoki, Fiers, and Estrada have played well enough that only Gonzalez' injury has had a significant affect on the team. When nearly HALF of your losses come from the bullpen, that's bad news.

[rluzinski]

When something bad happens, it's human nature to always want to limit the blame to as few individuals as possible. One person is obviously preferred but a small group can work as well. I guess it just makes it easier to vent our anger/frustration/unhappiness that way?

 

Not really. It's just that the bullpen has easily been the most disappointing aspect of the season so far

I don't disagree with that statement at all. I disagree with this one:

 

"The bullpen single handedly has taken down the 2012 Milwaukee Brewers."

 

I do not believe it is a certainty that the Brewers would be leading the division with an average bullpen.