Joey Votto to have knee surgery; out 3–4 weeks

[KCBrewerfan34]

Not sure where to put this, he's out with knee surgery for 3-4 weeks, this division is up for grabs!!

[PrinceEatMeat]

We are still 8 GB. Votto being out does hurt the Reds, but it helps the Pirates and Cards more than it helps us. If we were alone in 2nd place, I'd feel differently about how much his injury impacts us. It's not like he's out for the year though either. Can't imagine him being out just a month will take them out of the race.

[rluzinski]

Votto might be worth an extra win a month over his replacement. If he's out 3-4 weeks... yipee.

[logan82]

So you are saying there is a chance.

[igor67]

Mostly because it's more fun to be optimistic right, but that puts him out for 2 of our 3 series left with the Reds, so the timing is ever so slightly more useful in that way.

[KCBrewerfan34]

Votto might be worth an extra win a month over his replacement. If he's out 3-4 weeks... yipee.

 

Can this be true, a guy with a .465 OBP and 36 doubles is worth 1 win a month over a replacement player, why the hell do teams pay $15 million + if the difference is this small. I don't believe your fact is correct.

[SRB]

Pirates fans rejoice; Brewers fans despair, because it will give Melvin false hope

[Raw Biz]

Votto might be worth an extra win a month over his replacement. If he's out 3-4 weeks... yipee.

 

Can this be true, a guy with a .465 OBP and 36 doubles is worth 1 win a month over a replacement player, why the hell do teams pay $15 million + if the difference is this small. I don't believe your fact is correct.

 

Because that averages to about a 7 WAR season, which is pretty darn good. According to Fangraphs, Votto's WAR last year was 6.9 and his MVP year 7.3. Obviously WAR isn't gospel but 1 win a month sounds about right.

[Funketown]

As a baseball fan I'd rather enjoy watching the NL Central trio of Braun, McCutchen, and Votto fight it out for the MVP. Hopefully he can get back soon.

[pebadger]

If Freese homers here I will rip out all my eyelashes.

[igor67]

Well if it helps a pure replacement level team would win about 60 games. It's going to be pretty bad. 7 wins might not sound like a lot, but that takes this team to nearly 70 wins, which is dangerously close to mediocre all by himself. If one is a little more precise it would take basically one true ace and 1 Votto to get you mediocre if everyone else was Rafeal Roque and Cody Ransom on the team. Hopefully this shows how valuable 7 win players are. You get to a .500 team by simply having 3 of these guys and nothing but complete scrubs for the other 22 roster spots. The number of 7+ win guys a season doesn't get large enough even for the Yankees to continue this exercise.

[pebadger]

I was nervous watching the graphic update of the MIL/PIT 9th on the scoreboard at Target Field yesterday. This is not easier.

[Ennder]

Lets be clear here, the Pirates are a complete non factor. Almost every player on their team has played way over their heads and they are still just hanging around 2nd place. The Cardinals and the Reds are the only teams that matter and yeah they have a pretty big lead on us so unless we go on a run really soon we can't expect to pass them.

[pebadger]

Cards once again ending the Brewer season, in Miller Park, if only "effectively" in this instance.

[pebadger]

I saw the Oakland A's yesterday. For the life of me I can't figure out how they are above .500 playing in the AL. But when I watch the Brewers I know why: the A's have a bullpen. They don't have a strong lineup and nobody knows any of their pitchers, but they are better than the Brewers and it's really pretty sad.

[rluzinski]

Votto might be worth an extra win a month over his replacement. If he's out 3-4 weeks... yipee.

 

Can this be true, a guy with a .465 OBP and 36 doubles is worth 1 win a month over a replacement player, why the hell do teams pay $15 million + if the difference is this small. I don't believe your fact is correct.

I'm saying Votto can turn an 83 win team with a crappy 1B into a playoff team all by himself and you think I'm underestimating his value. Fine. You tell me what you think he's worth.

[Ennder]

Can this be true, a guy with a .465 OBP and 36 doubles is worth 1 win a month over a replacement player, why the hell do teams pay $15 million + if the difference is this small. I don't believe your fact is correct.

 

Think of it this way. Ignoring defense for now since it is hard to factor in. Votto doesn't pitch so right off the bat he isn't affecting 50% of the game. He is only up 1 times out of 9 so again he isn't affecting 89% of the hitting half of the game. So his impact on any single game at best is 11% of 50% or 5.5%. He is an above average defensive player so maybe call that 6% to try to add his defense back in. A player who can only impact 6% of the game can turn a .500 team into a serious playoff contender. Seems about right to me.

[rluzinski]

Even with the Brewer sweep, the Reds are still on a tear without Votto. 16-6?

[TooLiveBrew]

That Reds offense, especially without Votto, is pretty pedestrian-looking. It's pretty impressive how many bad offensive players Dusty Baker can run out there in a contending season. Miguel Cairo: First Baseman.

[nate82]

That Reds offense, especially without Votto, is pretty pedestrian-looking. It's pretty impressive how many bad offensive players Dusty Baker can run out there in a contending season. Miguel Cairo: First Baseman.

 

Ludwick is having a decent year for the Reds.

[PrinceEatMeat]

The lineup they've usually been throwing out there without Votto isn't exactly pedestrian.

 

Cozart

Stubbs

Phillips

Bruce

Ludwick

Rolen

Frazier

Hanigan

 

That's still pretty good. They could use a good leadoff hitter, but other than that they have a good lineup. I'm kind of surprised they didn't make a bigger play for a guy like Victorino. When Votto is in there it does make a big difference though.

[TooLiveBrew]

The NL aggregate slash line to this point is .254 /.319/.401/.720, and the Reds' is .251/.316/.419/.735 (including Votto). They're just not impressive to me when you factor in home ballpark (.771 home OPS, .701 road). I'll admit I didn't notice how good Ludwick & Frazier have hit this season, but even so that is an underwhelming lineup imo for a team that has legit WS aspirations. I agree that they should've added a bat or two, and that the focus should've been to increase OBP.

[PrinceEatMeat]

It's pretty obvious that the Reds have been winning because of their starting pitching and bullpen for the majority of the season too. If they had a little bit better offense, they'd be scary good. If they can get a good leadoff hitter, and maybe another SP in the offseason, they'll still clearly be the team to beat in the NL Central. Probably in the NL period for that matter, although the Nationals will be up there as well.

[torts]

It's pretty obvious that the Reds have been winning because of their starting pitching and bullpen for the majority of the season too. If they had a little bit better offense, they'd be scary good. If they can get a good leadoff hitter, and maybe another SP in the offseason, they'll still clearly be the team to beat in the NL Central. Probably in the NL period for that matter, although the Nationals will be up there as well.

 

his name is Billy Hamilton, stealing every base is his game.

[TooLiveBrew]

I'm selfishly hoping the Reds call Hamilton up come September, just so I can see some high-quality video of him on the basepaths. Not sure he'll hit enough to justify being a leadoff hitter, but I'm betting Dusty won't be able to help himself since Hamilton is so dang fast. [/base clogging!]