James Shields

[rickh150]

mlbtraderumors has Shields on the market. Wow!!! He has two club options left on his deal, a really great deal for a small market. With 9 mil in 2013 and 12 mil in 2014, he has to be and better be on the Brewers' radar.

 

His ERA is up to the mid 4's this year. Yet, considering the division- Yanks, Red Sox, Jays, not to mention the league- Texas, Angels, Tigers, those aren't terrible numbers. He finished THIRD in the CY Young vote last year, and he's only 30 years old. Moreover, this would keep the fan base excited for next season: Yo and Shields at the top wouldn't be Yo and Greinke at the top, but it would give us two years at what it would cost for one year of Greinke, not to mention the four more years we would be married to. Our young pitchers could finish out the rotation, with a cheaper FA signing possible too.

 

Like most big market teams have done with us over the last umpteen years, we might be able to start looking at the lower revenue teams like the Rays for a trade.

 

What could get it done right now... today?

 

Well, the Rays have nothing set at the catching position with no catching prospect in the near future. It just so happens we have two pretty good young catchers. That could set up a nice exchange. We get a #2/3 pitcher for the next two years. The Rays get Maldonado, a good young catcher for six years. We probably would have to give up a good AA pitcher too, probably Bradley or Jungman type, along with something at A ball (Gagnon, Goforth, Ramirez). Would this be a fair and beneficial deal for both clubs? Since the Rays are rich in pitching and weak in catching, along with being salary strapped, I think this could get done if Melvin was motivated to move. We could then deal Greinke and K-Rod to LA (Angels need relief help too) for more needed prospects, maybe a Segura (SS) from the Angels.

 

I'm for doing this now, while Maldy is hitting daily and while a pitcher of Shields talent and salary structure is on the market.

[monty57]

I'd love to have Shields, but we recently traded away the farm for two years of two pitchers. That's the reason we don't have much pre-arby talent that's MLB ready, and why we're running into a wall financially. Most of the talent in our farm system is AA or below, and I don't want to trade that away for two years of another pitcher. I don't believe that the Brewers can sustain success being run like a big-market team. We need pre-arby guys on the roster in order to be able to afford some higher-priced players, and trading all of our good young talent for high-priced guys means we don't have any good pre-arby guys on the roster.

[Raw Biz]

I don't mean to put you down but everytime somebody is said to be on the market, somebody starts a thread saying we need to deal for them. Not only do we not have the pieces to get Shields, we shouldn't do it even if we did. The Brewers should be doing exactly what the Rays are (and have been) doing, which is trading away their talent at its peak value in exchange for younger, cheaper, long-term talent. The Brewers need to stop trading away the farm for guys on one and two-year deals.

 

Also, I highly doubt Maldonado, Bradley/Jungmann, and an A-baller gets it done. I don't know how much value defensive-first catchers have in the trade market. I know Maldonado has been hitting great up here and I actually like him but I'm not sure if he will keep it up, as his minor league career indicates he's below-average offensively. As for Bradley/Jungmann, they're great for the Brewers to have but I don't think they would be a centerpiece in a deal for anyone else. When they were drafted, they were taken because of the thought that they could help rather quickly, not because of their ceiling. They are probably #3 type pitchers at best, closer to back-end. Especially Jungmann because of his lack of Ks thus far. The A-baller would most likely be a throw-in (unless its Gagnon, who I actually like and think should be the type of guy we need to keep).

 

Bottom line, the Brewers do not need to deplete their farm even more for a guy who wouldn't put them over the top. One guy most likely isn't going to be the difference in 2013/14 so they are better off holding on to the multiple pieces that are cheaper and controlled for longer.

[rickh150]

I agree that rebuilding the minors is important. That's why it would be beneficial to trade Greinke now (we probably aren't in the playoffs, yet how cool would that be if we could get in this year yet) and trade for great price controlled pitching in the next couple of years.

 

That has been the Brewer way.... trade for top notch starting pitching and develop position players for the big leagues or trades for starting pitching. Since we have no history of producing great pitching aside from Teddy, Yo, Sheets in the last 30+ years, we need to get it somewhere. We can't outbid big market teams either on the FA market. We, however, are on the cutting edge for trading for big time pitching. This has to continue to be the way we go. Without great starting pitching, this organization has gone no where.

 

The correct answer is develop your own pitching. The real life answer, at least for the last 30 seasons and now for the Milwaukee Brewers, is trade for it. When we have traded for great pitching (Vuke, Fingers-81 Sutton-82, CC-08, Greinke, Marcum-11), we make the playoffs.

[monty57]

I don't think past under-performance predicts future results. Just because the Brewers haven't developed any of their own pitching doesn't mean that our current minor leaguers will fail. Nor does our past success in developing position players mean that we will continue that success. We don't have a Ryan Braun/Prince Fielder in the minors right now. Our best position player is a 2B who may or may not make it at the MLB level.

 

"The Brewer way," as you called it, has only been "the Brewer way" for a few seasons, and those seasons have depleted our farm system and left us in an unenviable position going forward. Melvin should get away from that "Brewer way" and go back to stocking the farm and bringing up good, young talent who will play for league minimum and have six years of control.

[Kelbysdaddy]

shields isnt much better(if at all better) then marcum and half the board complains about giving up lawrie, who at the time had no real position and nothing but attitude problems. lets say trade martin and another of our top guys to the rays for him, maldy keeps hitting and changes his last name to molina- the whole freaking website will melt down.

[rickh150]

We cannot get to the playoffs without top tier pitching. Nobody can debate this sanely.

 

The Brewers haven't yet produced top end pitching at the ML level in bunches, talent that sticks. I'll say ever.

 

The Brewers have made pitching trades that fit their team well for the short term, giving them windows of opportunity (I forgot to mention the K-Rod trade in an earlier post- another great trade).

 

Why we should pin all our hopes to our next wave of pitching is not realistic with our pitching history. Maybe a couple will be year after year starters. But, to sit back and BE CONTENT with our pitching situation in 2013 and 2014 is nuts. We can't overpay on the FA market for Suppans and Loopers. Trading a few players for a #2 with an affordable contract would be a welcomed addition to a "big little" market that cannot do business like a dozen or so big market teams in baseball. Starting pitching, starting pitching, starting pitching.... With it you can still lose(see 2010 and 2011 Seattle Mariners). Without it, it's a guarantee.

[Raw Biz]

I agree you win with starting pitching. But that is why you must draft/develop and trade for it. Yes the Brewers haven't been able to do that in the past. But that doesn't mean they won't in the future. You don't trade young, cost-controlled pitching for already established, expensive guys with only 2 years left. If anything, they should be trading guys like Greinke, Weeks, Harts, etc. when their value is high, when their contracts are about to expire, and/or when they have replacements ready for young, impact pitching.

 

And to go back to your original offer, I don't think that's enough to get Shields.

[TheCrew07]

This is like a bad nightmare scenario for me... I wanted to acquire Marcum in 2005 and later on we trade Lawrie for him, it took 2 deals with Toronto to get the right guy. Then I would have swapped Fielder for Shields straight up in 2008 and now he's available on a limited contract and has a history of big league success which is the type of player Melvin usually targets. As much I like Shields and love the originality in his contract, there's no way I would target him now, and personally I don't want Melvin trading with TB or ATL ever again.

[rickh150]

If the Rays try to put Shields through waivers in August, it wouldn't be beyond the realm of possibility that the Brewers would claim him. If I'm correct in thinking that the NL teams starting with worst records would get first shot at the claim, the Brewers could get a jump on the off-season.

 

If the Rays are out of wild card running in a few weeks, they could look to move him to fill in at CF and C for the upcoming season. This would put the Brewers in a position to trade Aoki, Maldy, and a young AA pitcher for him. He'll make 21 mil in 2013 and 2014, and he'd fit nicely into the #2 spot of the rotation. Also, we then could look to boost our bullpen through FA and not pay the outrageous prices on the FA market for starting pitching.

[TooLiveBrew]

Not saying I know for sure, but Shields' tendency to give up the longball might not make him a good fit for Miller Park. I don't disagree that he might be a good trade target, but I didn't realize he'd allowed so many longballs & I think that might keep him from ever performing like a top of the rotation SP as a Brewer.

[StearnsFTW]

If the Rays try to put Shields through waivers in August, it wouldn't be beyond the realm of possibility that the Brewers would claim him. If I'm correct in thinking that the NL teams starting with worst records would get first shot at the claim, the Brewers could get a jump on the off-season.

 

If the Rays are out of wild card running in a few weeks, they could look to move him to fill in at CF and C for the upcoming season. This would put the Brewers in a position to trade Aoki, Maldy, and a young AA pitcher for him. He'll make 21 mil in 2013 and 2014, and he'd fit nicely into the #2 spot of the rotation. Also, we then could look to boost our bullpen through FA and not pay the outrageous prices on the FA market for starting pitching.

 

All al teams have a shot before the brewers. And I would think pretty much every team would claim him.

[torts]

If the Rays try to put Shields through waivers in August, it wouldn't be beyond the realm of possibility that the Brewers would claim him. If I'm correct in thinking that the NL teams starting with worst records would get first shot at the claim, the Brewers could get a jump on the off-season.

 

If the Rays are out of wild card running in a few weeks, they could look to move him to fill in at CF and C for the upcoming season. This would put the Brewers in a position to trade Aoki, Maldy, and a young AA pitcher for him. He'll make 21 mil in 2013 and 2014, and he'd fit nicely into the #2 spot of the rotation. Also, we then could look to boost our bullpen through FA and not pay the outrageous prices on the FA market for starting pitching.

 

All al teams have a shot before the brewers. And I would think pretty much every team would claim him.

 

false.

 

claims go in order of worst to best record, so if the brewers are the worst-record team to claim Sheilds, they'd be the only team to negotiate a trade with Tampa Bay.

[RockCoCougars]

shields isnt much better(if at all better) then marcum

 

This is how I feel. A lot of people get all hot and bothered over Shields, but he really doesn't do it for me. He's definitely a solid MLB starting pitcher, but not an ace type guy. I certainly wouldn't pillage the farm system for him.

[ninja33]

If the Rays try to put Shields through waivers in August, it wouldn't be beyond the realm of possibility that the Brewers would claim him. If I'm correct in thinking that the NL teams starting with worst records would get first shot at the claim, the Brewers could get a jump on the off-season.

 

If the Rays are out of wild card running in a few weeks, they could look to move him to fill in at CF and C for the upcoming season. This would put the Brewers in a position to trade Aoki, Maldy, and a young AA pitcher for him. He'll make 21 mil in 2013 and 2014, and he'd fit nicely into the #2 spot of the rotation. Also, we then could look to boost our bullpen through FA and not pay the outrageous prices on the FA market for starting pitching.

 

All al teams have a shot before the brewers. And I would think pretty much every team would claim him.

 

false.

 

claims go in order of worst to best record, so if the brewers are the worst-record team to claim Sheilds, they'd be the only team to negotiate a trade with Tampa Bay.

 

He's actually correct. It does go in order of worst-record, but AL teams have priority for AL players, and NL teams for NL players. So Shields would need to clear the entire AL, as well as the Astros, Cubs, Rockies, Padres and whoever else is worse than them in the NL. So they'd be around 20th in the waiver order for an AL player.

[HiAndTight]

I don't mean to put you down but everytime somebody is said to be on the market, somebody starts a thread saying we need to deal for them. Not only do we not have the pieces to get Shields, we shouldn't do it even if we did. The Brewers should be doing exactly what the Rays are (and have been) doing, which is trading away their talent at its peak value in exchange for younger, cheaper, long-term talent. The Brewers need to stop trading away the farm for guys on one and two-year deals.

 

Also, I highly doubt Maldonado, Bradley/Jungmann, and an A-baller gets it done. I don't know how much value defensive-first catchers have in the trade market. I know Maldonado has been hitting great up here and I actually like him but I'm not sure if he will keep it up, as his minor league career indicates he's below-average offensively. As for Bradley/Jungmann, they're great for the Brewers to have but I don't think they would be a centerpiece in a deal for anyone else. When they were drafted, they were taken because of the thought that they could help rather quickly, not because of their ceiling. They are probably #3 type pitchers at best, closer to back-end. Especially Jungmann because of his lack of Ks thus far. The A-baller would most likely be a throw-in (unless its Gagnon, who I actually like and think should be the type of guy we need to keep).

 

Bottom line, the Brewers do not need to deplete their farm even more for a guy who wouldn't put them over the top. One guy most likely isn't going to be the difference in 2013/14 so they are better off holding on to the multiple pieces that are cheaper and controlled for longer.

 

 

 

You ever realize you're constantly starting a thread saying, "I don't mean to insult you/put you down/ and or no offense, but," and then you continue to say something insulting, condescending, arrogant and you misrepresent what was actually said.

 

A-I must borrow your crystal ball regarding if he would or wouldn't put us over the top.

 

Coming into this year, he's thrown 1136 IP the last 5 years with an ERA of 3.86 and has been pitching in the AL East during that time. Last year he was one of the best pitchers in baseball.

 

B-We don't HAVE a depleted farm system. We HAD a depleted farm system. Right now we've got a very solid farm system that IMO would rank among the top 10-12 in the game and one that has a plethora of young power arms. We may be depleted when it comes to position players at the upper level.

 

Not to mention suggesting both we don't have ENOUGH to trade for him is just ridiculous. Would it be worth it? Probably not. But I highly doubt they'd turn down Thornburg, Peralta, Nelson and Maldonado for him(which would clearly be an overpay, just dispelling the ridiculous notion that we couldn't possibly trade for him).

 

C-Your explanation of why Jungman and Bradley where drafted is frankly just laughable. They where drafted to be middle of the rotation guys and probably back of the rotation guys? REALLY? So that Jed Bradley that was being talked about as a top 5 pick and Jungman who was also rated as a top 10 prospect in a very deep draft where drafted to be #4/5 type starters simply because they where close to being ready, and your evidence of this is what they've done at HiA(which is totally irrelevant to what they thought of him when they drafted him) and...absolutely nothing else. Both are potential legit #2 starters as virtually every scouting report said, with some saying that if they made a couple slight adjustments, they could both be potential aces. So where you get that the Brewers drafted them simply to get up to the big leagues quickly and that they didn't have high ceilings is simply revisionist history, a strategy you seem to often employ.

 

D-When did he say we HAVE to go out and trade for him? What's more, isn't the "transaction/proposal" section specifically meant to PROPOSE different transactions?

 

 

Finally, E-Who are ALL these players the Rays have traded off at their "peak values," and then used them to rebuild their farm system? Actually, what's helped them to continue to maintain a great farm system has been because they've received so much compensation for Type A and or Type B free agents such as the..what was it, 9 picks they had in something like the first round/supplemental 1st round recently?

Garza was obviously traded when his value was high

 

And Garza was traded when they had a LOADED pitching staff with Price, Hellickson, Neiman, Cobb, Shileds, and arguably the top prospect in the game at the time, and at least the top pitching prospect in Matt Moore as well as the likes of Wade Davis, McGee and others.

 

So I don't see this as a "trend," I see this as a single move. Did they trade away Kazmir at his peak value? Balfour? Soriano? Upton? Who's been traded away at their "peak," value?

For the record, everyone wants to "build like the Rays." Everyone wants to be able to put out a couple aces and then several #2/3 pitchers to round out their rotation and the luxury of having a couple other potential front line starting pitchers in their pen.

 

 

So...no offense, but other than agreeing that I don't think it's worth trading for Shields, not much else in your post is accurate. But I don't mean any offense

[HiAndTight]

shields isnt much better(if at all better) then marcum

 

This is how I feel. A lot of people get all hot and bothered over Shields, but he really doesn't do it for me. He's definitely a solid MLB starting pitcher, but not an ace type guy. I certainly wouldn't pillage the farm system for him.

 

 

Well, I don't agree with this whatsoever.

 

Shields has thrown 1283 IP since 2007 and is throwing his fastball at 92 MPH this year.

Marcum has thrown 798 since 2007 and his average fastball is under 87 MPH this year.

 

Shields has also gotten votes for the Cy Young(finishing 3rd last year behind two elite pitchers) while Marcum has yet to finish in the top 25.

 

Oh yeah, and Shields is YOUNGER than Marcum. Only by about a week, but given that he's accomplished so much more, you'd think he'd be a few years older.

 

So I don't think any comparison between Big Game James(who has been up and down in the post-season, but earned the nickname in pennant races) and Marcum who's a guy you're just waiting to put on the DL is extremely unfair.

 

 

Again, not saying I would give up a great deal to get him meaning I probably wouldn't be in favor of trading for him, but I think the premise of the argument is extremely flawed.

[HiAndTight]

We cannot get to the playoffs without top tier pitching. Nobody can debate this sanely.

 

The Brewers haven't yet produced top end pitching at the ML level in bunches, talent that sticks. I'll say ever.

 

The Brewers have made pitching trades that fit their team well for the short term, giving them windows of opportunity (I forgot to mention the K-Rod trade in an earlier post- another great trade).

Why we should pin all our hopes to our next wave of pitching is not realistic with our pitching history. Maybe a couple will be year after year starters. But, to sit back and BE CONTENT with our pitching situation in 2013 and 2014 is nuts. We can't overpay on the FA market for Suppans and Loopers. Trading a few players for a #2 with an affordable contract would be a welcomed addition to a "big little" market that cannot do business like a dozen or so big market teams in baseball. Starting pitching, starting pitching, starting pitching.... With it you can still lose(see 2010 and 2011 Seattle Mariners). Without it, it's a guarantee.

 

 

My final thought on this subject.

 

First of all, the players the Brewers have developed in the past, or their history of is absolutely zero consequence here. Using that logic, we should have traded Gallardo a part of a deal a few years ago because Nick Neugebauer a potential Cy Young Caliber pitcher got injured as did Jones, Gold and whomever else.

 

You're talking about totally different era's of baseball.

 

Tell me what JM Gold has to do with Jimmy Nelson in anyway at ALL and then we can discuss why the history in this case is the last bit relevant?

 

Second, how can you ask, "how can you be satisfied with the 2013-2014 rotation," when we haven't got a clue who's going to be in it?

It could very well be that Grienke, Gallardo, Fiers, Rogers and Nelson are in it. It's possible that there are about 30 different combinations that are in it. It's possible both the Angels we got back for Greinke who throw 98-99 MPH get their command under control and become frontline starters. It's entirely possible that Jungman and Bradley(especially Bradley as Lefties tend to take longer to develop) thrive in their second professional seasons as both have shown glimpses of greatness(despite the erroneous nonsense that they were drafted to be #4/5 pitchers just so they could get up to the big leagues early).

 

 

But you know what? ALL the pitchers you look around baseball and want to trade for? Guess what they all have in common? They where PROSPECTS at one point. And I think it's just absolutely foolish to summarily dismiss an outstanding group of about 15+ pitchers scattered from all levels and about 8-9 from A+ and above, many of whom throw in the mid to upper 90's because of what players who happened to pitch for the same organization the last 40 years ended up doing.

 

It'd have been akin to saying, "with our success in developing SS's, are you really confident in going into the next couple years with JJ Hardy? Or substitute that with 1st basemen, Ryan Braun....etc..etc...

 

 

History is just that. History. It has nothing to do with how much success future players will have, ESPECIALLY when you've got an entire new organization developing these pitchers. The pitchers you're talking about might as well have pitched for the Ornix Blue Wave as they and their coaches have about as much in common with the Brewers coaches and front office from 2000 and before.

 

And finally(I mean it on this subject for now) isn't it time for the love of GOD to let Suppan go? he was a guy we signed for a deal at market value who'd throw 200 innings the prior 4 years and averaged about a 4.00 ERA and had great success in the post-season. He was a bust with us.

 

Looper was a late addition for low risk just before spring training. Randy Wolf by in large has turned out to be a great addition.

 

NEITHER was overpaid at the time we signed them. Both got what they deserved based on their history. Looper not very much, Suppan a lot more.

 

They didn't end up earning it(unless you go by 1953 type thinking and look solely at wins as many of those who write into the MJS readers comment section do and value wins in which case Looper was a huge success).

 

Randy Wolf was a good signing.

 

Perhaps Edwin Jackson for 3 years and 33 million will be our next good signing. Perhaps we go after Dan Haren who's been one of the best pitchers in baseball next year and who the Angels may not want to pick up at 15.5 million and we sign him to a 4 year 55 million dollar deal and he regains his dominant ways. Who knows. But obviously the Brewers history since 1982 is of little consequence of we wouldn't have won 90+ games twice in the last 4 years, draw 3 million a year and have come 2 games away from the WS last year.

 

I don't know. But this old way of thinking, ie, we're a small market team so we can't sign this guy despite not having "small market," payrolls, or that because of our history of developing pitchers the current group won't do anything, or any number of things that the Brewers have changed while changing the entire culture of this organization. Which despite it's overwhelming success for some reason comes under constant scrutiny.

[rickh150]

Of course, history doesn't equate the future. However, history can give a clue of what is to come. A person living in the slums his whole childhood could still become a successful president of a business in the US. However, it doesn't help one's odds.

 

Trading Hart and Ramirez away helps how?

 

We wouldn't be using this money to sign FA, right, according to those who want to ship them out.

 

We would be getting little back for them, with many people making this case that prospects are being held more tightly than ever.

 

We are much closer to getting into the playoffs with a trade for a high quality pitcher and a reshuffled bullpen than in a hopeless no playoff mode like the Astros.

 

Sadly, many of the people that want to totally rebuild are the same ones who wanted to spend 135 milion to sign Greinke for 6 years. Isn't that a bit radical to change directions of a franchise based on one player? Can't we find a good upper level veteran to fill the #2 spot in the rotation so we can have hopes of the playoffs in 2013 and 2014? We are not that far away.

[TooLiveBrew]

We would be getting little back for them, with many people making this case that prospects are being held more tightly than ever.

I think the return for Greinke certainly indicates that 'teams are valuing prospects more than ever', while true, is still just a statement.

[jmeks23]

The Brewers got a decent haul for Greinke considering the Angels very well may not re sign him. That leaves them with absolutely nothing in the deal except a shot at a WS (which we did NOT have with Greinke). We may end up with 3 MLB players, already have one out of it. Even if Hellweg and Pena are BP arms it's still more than the Angels may end up with. Texas wasn't going to give up anything and CWS had nothing to give. ATL apparently was focused on other pitchers and that's about that. Considering the circumstance, DM did well.

[rickh150]

This guy is dealing lately. When I think of this off-season, I keep coming back to his name. It makes way too much sense for both Tampa and Milwaukee.

 

They need a catcher, an outfielder, and more young pitching, along with salary relief. My take is they want to keep Price around long-term, and that will be costly.

 

The Brewers need a #1 or #2 type veteran starter, which Shields has been. The Crew doesn't want to break the bank long-term, and Shields has two club option years left for reasonable money (22 million total, approximately, I believe).

[endaround]

The Brewers have more money that they do excess talent.

[reillymcshane]

Shields would be a great guy to have - two years of a top notch pitcher would be awesome. But what would it cost?

 

I could see that Tampa might like Maldonado. Who else? Gomez would fit if they dealt Upton - but they only get him for a year. Doesn't make sense. Corey Hart would work, but again, he's only signed for one year and pretty expensive ($10 million). I assume Tampa would want young pitching. Guys like Peralta, Thorburg, Jungmann. I just don't see the Crew dealing the young pitching at this time. Especially when they can probably sign someone in FA. Maybe that person isn't as good - but they don't lose the young guys.

[nate82]

Shields would be a great guy to have - two years of a top notch pitcher would be awesome. But what would it cost?

 

I could see that Tampa might like Maldonado. Who else? Gomez would fit if they dealt Upton - but they only get him for a year. Doesn't make sense. Corey Hart would work, but again, he's only signed for one year and pretty expensive ($10 million). I assume Tampa would want young pitching. Guys like Peralta, Thorburg, Jungmann. I just don't see the Crew dealing the young pitching at this time. Especially when they can probably sign someone in FA. Maybe that person isn't as good - but they don't lose the young guys.

 

Upton is a free agent after this season. Gomez though would be to expensive for the Rays and Maldonado would just be a throw in player in a deal involving Shields. Hart could make sense for the Rays as they don't have that many 1B options right now. The Rays have plenty of OF so I don't see them wanting Hart to play there. If the Rays could get Hart on a cheap extension 2-years around $18m added onto his contract I could see them doing that but that would all depend on what the Rays think of Hart as a 1B.

 

I don't believe going after Shields would be the right move for the Brewers. I would be more interested in someone like Cobb who really hasn't blossomed in the majors and is somewhat of a question mark and see if the Rays would give us Cobb for Gamel straight up. I am not sure the Rays would do this but it is something I would explore with the Rays in trading Gamel for one of their younger starting pitchers.