The Combined 'We're Trading Greinke' Thread (part 1)

[pretendastronaut]

If the word is just they've offered it to him, or are about to, I guess that's not really surprising. As RockCo said, they have to try to sign an extension now, to know if they'll seriously listen to offers in a few weeks.

[JohnBriggs12]

NOTE: I hear that the Brewers will or have offered Zack Geinke a 6 year / $125 million contrat.

 

that from the referenced Bill Michaels blog.

 

So, if it's true, and if Greinke accepts, what do we do from there? Next year's committed contracts (from Cot's): Weeks $11M, Hart $10.333M, Braun $9.5M, Ramirez $10M, Gallardo $8M, Aoki $1.25M, Lucroy $850k, Wolf $1.5M buyout. That's $52.4M committed to seven players, and Greineke's $20.8 would push us to $73.2M for eight players.

 

We have Axford, Narveson, Ishikawa and Estrada going into year 1 arby, Morgan ($2.35 M this year) and Kottaras ($700k) into year 2, Loe ($2.175M), Veras ($2M) and Parra ($1.2M) going into year 3 arby and Gomez ($1.9625M) going into Year 4 arby. Dillard, Gamel, Green, Fiers, Maldonado, Ransom will still be pre-arby, as will guys in the minors who may come up.

 

(Note that Cot's and Brewerfan's salary page differ on some players, such as Estrada, Loe & Veras' arby status)

 

Melvin / Attanasio know what the Brewers have to spend, but I don't know how we're going to field a competitive team with $73MM going to eight players and very little cheap talent. If Cot's is right, we'll have around $10MM going to Loe, Veras, Parra and Axford and another $5MM or so going to Morgan / Gomez. We're pushing $90MM for 14 players! That's with only two SP spot filled (Gallardo/Greinke). Can we compete with Estrada and two rookies in the rotation when we're a below .500 team with Marcum and Wolf in the rotation?

 

The only way I can see this working would be for us to immediately trade Marcum and Hart for some good, MLB-ready prospects who could step right in and contribute for league minimum. Otherwise, we're going to have the same team that's playing right now without Marcum, Wolf and Gonzalez and with very little money to spend for upgrades.

 

I should be excited about the possibility that Greinke could be extended, but it opens up a lot of questions. I don't want to see us become the teams of the 90's and early 2000's where we have a couple of guys to get excited about surrounded by a bunch of guys who shouldn't be on a major league roster. After all, the combined records of the teams Greinke has been on is 581-787... he certainly can't win it alone.

 

Marcum and Greinke's salary combined this year is equivalent to one year of Greinke under that scenario. Next year they have Wolf and K-Rod coming off the books too. They can still afford a player or two. The real issue is injury risk or if Greinke would become ineffective before the contract is close to ending. I think what Fiers has done and to an extent what Estrada has done has convinced them that Wolf and Marcum can both be replaced internally with pre-arby guys already here. That's key.

 

Guys like Parra, Loe and Morgan can easily be non-tendered for cheaper options.

[davego]

While it's not my cash on the barrel...wow...$125 million locked up into one starting pitcher seems like quite the gamble for the 'Crew. If payroll is truly capped about about $100 million per season, Zack will take 20% of that. If this was the NBA, sure...but not sure this is a good approach for the Brewers. I love Zack too, but I don't know...

[paul253]

Well if Greinke is looking for Cain money there you go. The Brewers might need to add an option year or vesting option to get it done but if true it is a very competitive offer.

[TheCrew07]

I totally agree with you about the Rays, however they really lucked out on those trades.

 

Luck? How many "lucky" trades does it take for people to accept that they are lucky and are skillful.

 

Kazmir for Zambrano wasn't out of line for the time, it looks like a horrible deal now, especially given today's pitching market, but there were plenty of concern's about Kazmir's long-term future at the time of the trade.

 

As I said it 2008, when Edwin Jackson is your 5th starter you've done something right... there aren't many starting pitchers who's average FB velocity is higher than 95 at any one time and while Jackson certainly makes a credible case to the be the poster boy for "effectively wild" trading a closer for that kind of talent was a very shrewd move. I pointed out myself that he never threw enough strikes and even given his immense talent he was the first pitcher to go, but was flipped while he still had value, and continued to be flipped by subsequent teams.

 

Garza for Young wasn't lucky, unless you consider the Twins got extremely unlucky in that Delmon has never approached his ceiling as a player. At the time it was a pretty even trade, of course now it looks terrible, but in the end the Rays managed the roster and built the team with pitching, roster, and payroll flexibility, and that's something the Brewers have never looked to do.

 

All of the trades together point to the idea that Tampa figured out how to exploit the market and build the most cost effective teams that could compete with the Yankees and Boston in the same division. Young pitching is power, and the Rays built a WS rotation on 3 trades which effectively bridged the gap to the point their absolutely fantastic system produced legit top of the rotation talent year after year. They held onto to those trading chips until they had better talent/production and moved them on at the correct time in every case. That's not luck, it's astute stewardship. Freidman has missed some, the Burrell contract didn't work out very well, but I think every organization is going to miss on a some high priced FAs, it's the nature of the beast.

 

Every organization has to start someplace, we started with hitters, still haven't proven we can develop impact pitching, and the impact pitching we've acquired has/had an extremely limited tenure. If you're trading for proven players then you'd better be able to resign them because any draft pick compensation is years away from helping at best. Winning doesn't necessarily make a trade the proper move, there's many more angles than that. Typically that's the way the trade is viewed, did the buyer accomplish it's goal? Sometimes it's how the prospects traded turn out, which to me is largely irrelevant. Personally my angle is always did the trade help move the Brewers towards the place where I'd like them to be as an organization, and in just about every case (there have been exceptions) the answer with Melvin has been no.

 

He makes trades that largely viewed in a positive way by the fan base because they are trades for familiar names with a history of big league success, but there is legitimate argument to be made that they weren't the best possible value for the assets spent nor did they truly move organization forward from a talent standpoint.

 

Tampa spent a SP they weren't going to resign, a good but overvalued closer, and top hitting prospect to acquire 3 key pieces for their WS team, getting over 10 years of service before selling high flipping all 3 pitchers at the proper time to cycle talent back into the system. The Brewers spent 3 top hitting prospects, 2 top pitching prospects, a very good relief prospect, a MLB SS, and boatload more cash in payroll to get 4.5 years of service and do less in the post season coming from a weaker division. The inequity there isn't luck, it's a definable difference in approach.

[nate82]

While I love the Rays and what they have done they have gotten lucky in their trades. No way does any GM in baseball trade for Zambrano let alone gives up a top prospect for a pitcher like Zambrano was. Zambrano wasn't this big time pitcher he was an average to possibly an above average #3 or #4 pitcher. The Rays got lucky in terms of a team overvaluing what Zambrano was worth. It was labeled as a bad trade when it went down and it was labeled as a bad trade after. What is really funny is the Rays making that bad trade into another good trade when they sent Kazmir to the Angels. Again this was another organization overvaluing a pitcher who was obviously in decline and was overpaid at the time and coming off some questions in terms of how hurt or bad his arm was.

 

The Rays are also bad at putting together a bullpen or were. Basically all the Rays have been doing is throwing things at the wall and seeing what sticks if it sticks and you can sign them for cheap then the Rays go with that player if not they let them go. This is just a basic break down of what the Rays are doing right now.

 

As bad as the Brewers have been developing pitchers the Rays have been nearly as bad or even worse at developing positional players especially when drafting in the early rounds. What the Brewers need to do is see that they are great at developing positional players and use that advantage to trade for the pitchers they are not able to develop. The Brewers need to use their strength in order to improve on their weakness. The Brewers have been doing this but not everyone is going to agree that they are doing it correctly.

 

I would have loved for Melvin and the Brewers to trade for more controllable players (pitchers especially) but when looking at the minor league players that have been traded I am not sure there was any player that was traded would have brought back a young controllable pitcher. Maybe if Melvin would have traded for Greinke 2 or 3 years earlier that would have been a great move but I doubt the Royals were looking to trade Greinke at that time and the price would have been a lot higher and I don't believe the Brewers had the pieces to make that type of a trade at all.

[trwi7]

This debate reminds me of the debate about the OKC Thunder. They got lucky because they got Durant and then using that to point out that they got lucky getting Westbrook and Harden too. The Rays have hardly been lucky.

[brewmann04]

you replace Morgan with Schaffer i sure he can at least bat in the 220's

[nate82]

This debate reminds me of the debate about the OKC Thunder. They got lucky because they got Durant and then using that to point out that they got lucky getting Westbrook and Harden too. The Rays have hardly been lucky.

 

Yeah drafting guys in the late late late late rounds is not luck at all it must be some kind of skill that no one in MLB has. The Rays have been very lucky in finding talent in the late rounds of the draft. They have also gotten lucky where some GM's over valued some pieces. It is not all luck but to discount it and state that they haven't been lucky is rather foolish.

 

And yes the Thunder did get lucky what happens if the Thunder get the 4th or 5th pick in that draft and then the next year get the 1st or 2nd pick? Would they still have the same team? What if Durant didn't come out during that draft would they still be as good as they are now? The answer is a resounding NO. So if the Bucks instead had the 1st pick in the 2004 draft instead of the 2003 draft what would that team look like with Howard at center or Lebron from the year earlier? Luck plays into everything more than people want to admit that it does.

[trwi7]

I never said the Thunder didn't get lucky, I never said the Rays haven't been lucky. But those of you discounting it as some skill and good scouting are ridiculous. You don't have that kind of success in that division with that limited of a payroll without having an awful lot of skill.

[Oldcity]

Pretty nervous about giving Greinke 6/125.

[adambr2]

If Greinke accepts, I think it could be the thing that allowed us to remain competitive during this era for our franchise.

 

I also think that it could be the thing that we all look back on years from now after a painful rebuilding process as to the point where most people feel it began. Could go either way.

[Invader3K]

Pretty nervous about giving Greinke 6/125.

 

Has it actually been confirmed that they've offered him a contract like this? All I can find is a vague allusion from Bill Michaels, but that's it.

[brewmann04]

I think most agree is that make him a final offer by The 4th of July,and if he turns it down then you have to look at all options for moving him.

[JohnBriggs12]

I don't trust Michaels as a source, but if that were indeed the offer, Greinke would be risking an awful lot if he turned it down. He's going to be making 17-18 more starts and the downside risk is huge if he were to experience injury issues or be less effective in the 2nd half. That $125 million can easily dry up. Conversely, he could at best get another $15 million over the life of the deal with a great 2nd half.

 

Unless his agent takes the Boras approach that whatever a team like Milwaukee can offer, another team will eventually beat, so no offer is high enough, then he should advise his client to accept.

[monty57]

While I love the Rays and what they have done they have gotten lucky in their trades. No way does any GM in baseball trade for Zambrano let alone gives up a top prospect for a pitcher like Zambrano was. Zambrano wasn't this big time pitcher he was an average to possibly an above average #3 or #4 pitcher. The Rays got lucky in terms of a team overvaluing what Zambrano was worth. It was labeled as a bad trade when it went down and it was labeled as a bad trade after. What is really funny is the Rays making that bad trade into another good trade when they sent Kazmir to the Angels. Again this was another organization overvaluing a pitcher who was obviously in decline and was overpaid at the time and coming off some questions in terms of how hurt or bad his arm was.

 

It's funny that as much analysis as people put into trades, it's really as simple as two people talking and coming to an agreement. If you have someone you want to move, you target some guys you like and make some phone calls. The worst that can happen is you don't make a deal. Like a lot of other things in life, you just have to make the phone call. You can't convince yourself the deal won't be made, so you never pick up the phone. The Rays are obviously willing to make the calls, and that has allowed them to make some deals that other people thought would never happen.

[reillymcshane]

Speculation is starting to ramp up about Greinke.

 

http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/milwaukee-brewers-pitcher-zack-greinke-trade-deadline-062612

 

This is just the start of it. I imagine the feeding frenzy will begin if the Brewers fall out of the first by 10 games or more.

 

At that point, you have to be realistic and say to yourself that if Zack doesn't resign, it's foolish to hang onto him. If you can get better than a comp pick, you're best dealing him.

[TooLiveBrew]

I hate that Melvin is playing this game of 'we really are only one winning streak away from this race!' --

 

“We’ve got to make a decision on what we’re doing overall,” Melvin said. “We’re hoping we can put a good week together. If we don’t, we’ve got to be prepared to go both ways. A lot more clubs are starting to call now. Clubs are calling on different players.”

 

And he's again going to be arbitrarily limiting the bidding field for Greinke (a la not contacting lots of teams about Lawrie)...

 

If the Brewers choose to trade Greinke, Melvin said he would talk only to select clubs that he viewed as a potential match, rather than make him available to every team.

 

Great. You never know what team might throw some ridiculous offer your way; why limit that field?

[paul253]

I like the fact that multiple teams are calling about multiple players. I hope Marcum can come back quickly and pitch effectively and maybe draw some interest.

[fondybrewfan]

TLB I think you are reading way too much into those comments. DRM has never been upfront regarding trade speculation; he keeps everything so close to the vest. I am sure he would listen to all offers but it would make sense that he would only initiate contact with teams with pieces that he actually wants.

 

Hopefully within the next 2 weeks DRM has to stop hoping that the Brewers are going to turn it around. Similar to the CC situation, and especially now since the draft pick compensation has changed, you are going to get higher value for ZG if the acquiring team can get another 2-3 starts from him on top of Aug and Sep. Trading him on July 10th will probably get us more value than July 31st.

[nate82]

I hate that Melvin is playing this game of 'we really are only one winning streak away from this race!' --

 

“We’ve got to make a decision on what we’re doing overall,” Melvin said. “We’re hoping we can put a good week together. If we don’t, we’ve got to be prepared to go both ways. A lot more clubs are starting to call now. Clubs are calling on different players.”

 

And he's again going to be arbitrarily limiting the bidding field for Greinke (a la not contacting lots of teams about Lawrie)...

 

If the Brewers choose to trade Greinke, Melvin said he would talk only to select clubs that he viewed as a potential match, rather than make him available to every team.

 

Great. You never know what team might throw some ridiculous offer your way; why limit that field?

 

 

The first part is posturing by Melvin as he doesn't want to show his hand and most GM's know this.

 

Secondly the bidding field for Greinke is going to be limited anyways which also goes along with your third point. There are only a few teams that have what it would take to get Greinke and there are only a few teams that will be willing to look at taking Greinke.

 

Teams that you can eliminate from the Greinke race off the top of my head are: Rays, Yankees, Red Sox, Angels, Dodgers, White Sox and the Nationals and I am forgetting a team here. Teams that have enough minor league talent to acquire Greinke and would be looking at acquiring Greinke is very small. The Rangers and the Orioles are the two teams that have the prospects to get a deal done. Other than those two teams you are looking at a package that you are not going to want think along the lines of a Carlos Lee type of a trade. Which would then bring in the Angels, Dodgers, and the White Sox.

 

It is obvious in what Melvin is saying he is looking for something rather specific and won't talk to teams if they do not have that specific piece. I do not see how this is shocking at all or why you would be up in arms over this. This shouldn't be anything new as there are not that many teams that have the talent to acquire Greinke that list is going to be very small.

[TooLiveBrew]

It is obvious in what Melvin is saying he is looking for something rather specific and won't talk to teams if they do not have that specific piece.

 

This is called limiting your options. Melvin has done it many times before in trades, & he looks like he's going to do it again. Knowing Melvin, he'll only move Greinke for MLB-ready pitching. I just hope he is able to also find MLB-ready pitching that's good.

[monty57]

I hate that Melvin is playing this game of 'we really are only one winning streak away from this race!' --

 

“We’ve got to make a decision on what we’re doing overall,” Melvin said. “We’re hoping we can put a good week together. If we don’t, we’ve got to be prepared to go both ways. A lot more clubs are starting to call now. Clubs are calling on different players.”

 

And he's again going to be arbitrarily limiting the bidding field for Greinke (a la not contacting lots of teams about Lawrie)...

 

If the Brewers choose to trade Greinke, Melvin said he would talk only to select clubs that he viewed as a potential match, rather than make him available to every team.

 

Great. You never know what team might throw some ridiculous offer your way; why limit that field?

 

You & I are on the same page. I cringed when I read those two sentences. Why flat out say that you're not making Greinke available to every team? I'd like to think that Melvin would accept calls from anyone interested, but it just seems odd to say something like that. There are only 29 other teams in the league, and that number is limited more when you whittle it down to playoff contenders. Why not call all of them just to see what they'll offer. You might be pleasantly surprised.

 

This isn't even a situation where you don't want to trade him to a rival. Since this is a "rental" situation, I'd be happy if the Reds, Pirates or Cardinals would send us their best prospect(s) for a couple of months of Greinke. We're not going anywhere this season, and the prospects would make us better in the future and them worse.

 

That said, thanks for the link reilly. It's good to see that the Brewer brass is being realistic about the situation. Melvin is notorious about keeping everything out of the media. Opening up even this much probably means he's talked to every other GM already and probably has ten offers on the table.

[fondybrewfan]

I guess the question is what is Melvin looking for specifically and what team has it available?

 

I have to imagine that a legitimate SS is going to be e requirement and I have no idea what SS prospects are out there on teams that would want Grienke.

[1e Corbeau]

I agree that you don't want to limit your options in any potential transaction, but:

 

1. This is likely DM speak. As mentioned, most believe he plays it "close to the vest."

 

2. The FO continuously scouts other orgs, so they probably had a good idea of what they'd like in return wrt how they value Greinke.

 

3. Per Cot's, Greinke can block a trade to 15 clubs this year. Since, DM just traded for him 19 months ago, he probably has at least a good feel on where Greinke wouldn't go.

 

4. Teams clearly out of the race are very unlikely to want to take on a rental player.

 

I would imagine that, based on those alone, you're looking at 3-8 teams with intent and resources.

 

As far as a history of DM limiting trade partners (Lawrie?), what documented evidence is there, and that? This always seems like a "grass is greener" view that doesn't take into context the complexities and motivations of a network of 30 teams, their owners and FOs, and thousands of players and contractual obligations. I'm not trying to single anyone out, as I like armchairing it as well, but just because there was a rumor of Hart for Beachy or Fielder for Cain, etc., does not mean those were actual possibilities.

 

FWIW, I hope we can extend him, and the 6/$125 figure being put out by Michaels (whom I don't really trust) seems to be a more than fair offer with no discount.