The Combined 'We're Trading Greinke' Thread (part 1)

[RWeeksFan23]

How about something like Greinke and Morgan to BAL for Machado and Matusz?

[Raw Biz]

How about something like Greinke and Morgan to BAL for Machado and Matusz?

 

I think everyone here would pull the trigger easily on that. Unfortunately, Baltimore probably wouldn't.

[KCBrewerfan34]

If you trade Greinke you absolutely have to get a package or a top prospect you think is close to can't niss (maybe a Profar) no guessing if they trade him.

 

If you have to guess you might as well take the draft picks, bad situation almost anyway you slice it.

[RockCoCougars]

If you trade Greinke you absolutely have to get a package or a top prospect you think is close to can't niss (maybe a Profar) no guessing if they trade him.

 

Absolutely. You don't settle for the best deal, just because. If nobody makes a great offer, you let things play out for the rest of the year and in free agency.

 

That said, though I'm still strongly in the keep Greinke camp, if I'm Melvin I'd strike up negotiations with Texas. They'd likely offer a B-level prospect, 'cost controlled' pitching surplus like Holland and a pipe dream 20 year old A ball arm.

 

The negotiations would be worth it just to break out in my best Daryl Hall voice over the phone and sing, "We're so close, yet Profar away".

[miggs721]

if we could get mike olt, that could be a starting point, i dont see us getting a machado or profar future all star caliber ss for greinke

[brewmann04]

I agree if the brewers do have to trade him which i still don't believe will happen, but i agree they have to get can't miss prospects.

[fondybrewfan]

Signing Grienke and trading Grienke really isn't an either or situation. I don't see how trading Grienke now makes us more or less likely of resigning him in the offseason. By all accounts Grienke is a smart guy and understands the business of baseball. He seems to like MIL and I think he would consider coming back if he were traded.

 

I still find it highly unlikely that the Crew will pay the amount needed; but just wanted to point out that trading him isn't going to automatically mean they can't get him back from 2013 and beyond. I would rather trade him to assure us that we are going to get something of use that is atleast somewhat proven at the MILB level

[RockCoCougars]

I say if you trade Greinke the odds of signing him in the winter are zero. In my view, the only chance the Brewers have of resigning Greinke is negotiating with him in the next month. The Brewers need to figure out what they are willing to pay Greinke and get to the table. We know from the past that they aren't going to get into a bidding war with anyone. They need to basically lay it on the line, tell him that they want to move forward with him but they need to lock something in. Make him your best offer and if he turns it down, then go from there. The offer is going to have to be 'Cain money', not 'Verlander/Weaver' money. At this point, you won't have Greinke's agent using your offer as leverage to drive the price up for other teams, etc. By signing a deal, Greinke will also take a bunch of risk off his back of having a Ben Sheets type injury late in the season.

[Kelbysdaddy]

yea- if they trade greinke, signing him this offseason is pretty much 0%. if they dont trade him probably 10%. i cant see him getting resigned. i'd bet on some team like miami/washington/toronto/baltimore signing him this winter.

[fondybrewfan]

For what I understand Grienke hasn't been negotiating and has no interest in negotiations until after the season. That why I said trading him probably doesn't alter the changes of resigning him. Grienke seems to enjoy the front office aspect of baseball (he was active in preparing for the draft) so it seems logical that he wouldn't be as turned off from a trade as a normal player would.

 

Hell if I could get traded to a winning team for 2 months and then go back to my old team that is still talented but just picked up a bunch of talent from my trade I think I would be pretty happy about the scenario.

[RockCoCougars]

I don't know.. to me, it's kind of like breaking up with your long term girlfriend 'for now' to see 'other people'. If she finds better options, she ain't coming back.. that is if you even want her back. I could see such a scenario working better if Greinke had come through the system and had a palatial estate in MKE with all kinds of community ties. I don't see much of that at work, so I think if you trade him, come December. you are going to be just another team lining up at the door- meaning you had better have the high offer. I think the Brewers should at least attempt to use this window to float some numbers with his agent. They know the score with the trade deadline coming up, and I can't imagine that they'd walk away from at least talking.

[Raw Biz]

I don't know.. to me, it's kind of like breaking up with your long term girlfriend 'for now' to see 'other people'. If she finds better options, she ain't coming back.. that is if you even want her back. I could see such a scenario working better if Greinke had come through the system and had a palatial estate in MKE with all kinds of community ties. I don't see much of that at work, so I think if you trade him, come December. you are going to be just another team lining up at the door- meaning you had better have the high offer. I think the Brewers should at least attempt to use this window to float some numbers with his agent. They know the score with the trade deadline coming up, and I can't imagine that they'd walk away from at least talking.

 

Well like others have said, the Brewers have tried to negotiate with him (or at least they have said so). I think sometimes people think that because a guy doesn't get signed, the Brewers didn't put in any effort or didn't offer a "fair" contract. If Greinke hasn't resigned by now, he's probably going to test the waters. I think trading him would only increase the chance that he resigns because the team would be more talented by getting good players for him.

[RockCoCougars]

If the negotiations right around Opening Day weren't enough for Greinke with the added year of injury risk on his end, why would the same offer work when he's on the open market? This tells me one of two things. Either the Brewers made a Jered Weaver/Justin Verlander ballpark extension offer, or ZG wants way too much. Probably a combination of both.

 

I think that the Brewers need to determine their max offer and put it out there in the next month. I don't see what they have to lose by doing so. They know pretty much what they are committed for with salary for next year. If it's a market offer and Zach wants to stay he may just sign. If not, I don't like their odds this off-season. By that point, we should know with a good deal of certainty whether or not these guys are in the mix for the playoffs. If he won't sign a deal, your next move will be dictated by what you think the chances for the rest of the season are.

[Raw Biz]

I think that the Brewers need to determine their max offer and put it out there in the next month. I don't see what they have to lose by doing so. They know pretty much what they are committed for with salary for next year. If it's a market offer and Zach wants to stay he may just sign. If not, I don't like their odds this off-season.

 

Well maybe they have already made their max offer. And remember, Greinke wants to play for a winner. Maybe he really wants to stay and is on the edge, but doesn't see this team, as is, going anywhere. But maybe by trading him and getting some impact talent, that puts it over the top for him and he would really consider staying next season. All I'm saying is I think if he hasn't signed by now, he most likely will be testing the market so you might as well get some impact talent back for him.

[brewmann04]

it either the brewers make their offer and it turned down he has to be moved.

[Warning Track Power]

In the event he is dealt, I've been curious about the Dodgers as the potential landing spot for Greinke. I'm not sure the Dodgers actually would deal for him in 2012, as their pitching has been outstanding so far and they will likely target him or Hamels after 2012 and get him without dealing the talent necessary. However, they are leading the NL West now and would give themselves a real shot at the World Series with a frontline rotation of Kershaw and Greinke. Given our dearth of talent at SS and our struggles in the bullpen if the Dodgers wouldn't put together a package of Dee Gordon, Kenley Jansen and Nathan Eovaldi for Greinke and K-Rod. May seem a lot for possibly three months of Greinke but they can slide Hairston into SS, K-Rod, Guerra or Lindblom into the closer's role and Greinke takes the rotation spot of Eovaldi. Gordon becomes our SS of the future, Jansen and Axford take the 8th and 9th and Eovaldi is a future #2 or #3 in my opinion.

 

I think I would do that deal if I were both the Brewers and the Dodgers.

[RockCoCougars]

The Dodgers aren't going to trade Jansen. That would be like the Brewers trading Axford last year. They might move Gordon and Eovaldi, but I'm not sure that I'd do that for Greinke. At any rate, I think that the Dodgers are going after Hamel as their number one target- either this season or in free agency.

[monty57]

They know pretty much what they are committed for with salary for next year.

 

Yes and no. They know their current committments, but they don't know what moves may be made.

 

For example: Trading Hart for a pre-arby SS or SP eliminates the committed salary for Hart and fills a hole for league minimum where they may have had $5-10MM budgeted for a FA. Trading Morgan and Gomez and going with Schafer saves around $5MM. We'd have an OF of Braun, Schafer, Aoki for around $10MM instead of Braun, Gomez/Morgan, Hart for $24MM. We would also have a pre-arby pitcher instead of a $10MM free agent.

 

Trading Greinke and Marcum for pre-arby guys would save the money we'd spend on their contracts this year, save the signing bonuses of the draft picks and net us good young pre-arby players to fill vital roles next year. That lowers future payrolls and takes a lot of money off the books that could be used to help teams in the future.

 

"Selling" this year and netting some pre-arby guys who could start for next year's team would probably leave them with plenty of money to "play with." If they really want to extend Greinke, this is probably the way to do it.

 

On the other hand, due to of our lack of good pre-arby talent, "going for it" this year will probably mean hitting free agency in the off season, which will leave them with an expensive, watered down version of this year's team.

[alwz4gbp]

Rick Aguilera did that with the Twins years ago. Went to the Red Sox then resigned after the season. I can't recall who the Twins got for him but as I recall it was a robbery. The Twins and Aguilera were very open about the plan and the Sox still ponied up. Maybe we could talk Greinke into that.

[RockCoCougars]

Aguilera was a rare case. I forgot who he was traded for, but a quick look reminded me that it was the 'original' Frankie Rodriguez, who was a huge prospect at one time, and just as big of a bust. I think that his star had dimmed with the Red Sox a bit before the trade. At any rate, having lived up there at the time, I'm fairly certain that Aguilera wanted to return to the Twin Cities because he lived up there year round and had children in school there. He also had 10/5 rights, which probably sparked some discussions with the Twins before he was traded. Greinke doesn't have those kinds of ties to Milwaukee.

 

The only other time that I can remember this happening was with Jim Slaton, who was traded to Detroit for Oglivie. He spent a full year in Detroit and then signed as a free agent with the Brewers. That said, he had a much longer history with the Brewers, and more importantly back in those days, free agents were limited to negotiate with only a handful of teams that 'drafted' them in the reeentry draft. Believe it or not, but back then the Brewers were very aggressive with free agent contracts, and probably had the best offer.

[nate82]

Cliff Lee also did this. Lee really didn't want to be traded out of Philly and never really was going to be signing anywhere but Philly the year he was a free agent.

 

I wouldn't bet on Greinke returning to the Brewers as a free agent but I could see him coming back to the Brewers if he is traded this year. The thing with Greinke is that I don't see that many teams that are going to be going hard after Greinke. The Nationals are all set with their pitching, the Braves have been really conservative in terms of spending lately, the Yankees are looking to dump payroll right now though they would add someone if they are the right player and the same can be said about the Red Sox. I don't see the Cubs being major players in free agency yet as they are not quite yet close to contending. I also believe the Cubs are going to shy away from free agency for awhile. The Rangers look to be more occupied with Hamilton and the Angels just did a big splash last off season I don't see them being in the hunt for Greinke. The Dodgers are going to go hard after Hamels and the Phillies look like they will be looking at offensive players first before looking at their rotation. I believe it is going to be a very small amount of teams that are going to be in on Greinke. Milwaukee, Baltimore, Kansas City, and Toronto are the teams that I believe will be in on Greinke in the off season. Toronto scares me the most as they could put up a lot of money though their ownership and current GM are still shy of spending in free agency after the blunders they made their. In the end I think Greinke will either sign with the Brewers or Orioles. I believe Mark A is going to push Melvin to sign Greinke at all costs this coming off season.

[jerichoholicninja]

Cliff Lee also did this. Lee really didn't want to be traded out of Philly and never really was going to be signing anywhere but Philly the year he was a free agent.

 

I wouldn't bet on Greinke returning to the Brewers as a free agent but I could see him coming back to the Brewers if he is traded this year. The thing with Greinke is that I don't see that many teams that are going to be going hard after Greinke. The Nationals are all set with their pitching, the Braves have been really conservative in terms of spending lately, the Yankees are looking to dump payroll right now though they would add someone if they are the right player and the same can be said about the Red Sox. I don't see the Cubs being major players in free agency yet as they are not quite yet close to contending. I also believe the Cubs are going to shy away from free agency for awhile. The Rangers look to be more occupied with Hamilton and the Angels just did a big splash last off season I don't see them being in the hunt for Greinke. The Dodgers are going to go hard after Hamels and the Phillies look like they will be looking at offensive players first before looking at their rotation. I believe it is going to be a very small amount of teams that are going to be in on Greinke. Milwaukee, Baltimore, Kansas City, and Toronto are the teams that I believe will be in on Greinke in the off season. Toronto scares me the most as they could put up a lot of money though their ownership and current GM are still shy of spending in free agency after the blunders they made their. In the end I think Greinke will either sign with the Brewers or Orioles. I believe Mark A is going to push Melvin to sign Greinke at all costs this coming off season.

 

We said basically the same things about Prince last year and he got the money he wanted from somewhere no one expected him to go. If Zack hits free agency it's because he wants to go where ever the money is which probably isn't Milwaukee.

[TURBO]

If he hits free agency, we lose him. I 100% think that once there is a bidding war, we lose.

 

In a couple of years, when Odorizzi is lighting it up in the big leagues, we are going to feel pretty stupid for letting Greinke go. At some point, we are going to have to pony up to keep our studs. Sabathia and Prince left, and odds are pretty high, Greinke is going to do the same if we don't get him inked before the trade deadline.

 

Pay the man!

[Raw Biz]

If he hits free agency, we lose him. I 100% think that once there is a bidding war, we lose.

 

In a couple of years, when Odorizzi is lighting it up in the big leagues, we are going to feel pretty stupid for letting Greinke go. At some point, we are going to have to pony up to keep our studs. Sabathia and Prince left, and odds are pretty high, Greinke is going to do the same if we don't get him inked before the trade deadline.

 

Pay the man!

 

It doesn't matter what the other players in the trade do, it matters what the players we received have done. That goes for all trades. You can't just look at it as "well those guys are doing pretty good now, we never should have traded them." If Greinke was a complete bust and the prospects turned out to be all-stars, sure you can say it was a bad trade. But that's not the case. It was a good trade regardless of whether or not we resign him. We most likely don't make the playoffs without him (or Marcum). Now whether you believe simply making the playoffs was enough is another question.

 

edit: I see you didn't really say it was a bad trade but that was my initial impression after reading how you mentioned Odorizzi lighting it up. I thought really highly of Odorizzi but like I said, he was years away from helping the club and I think the Greinke trade worked out fine (especially if we can turn around and sell him for a few prospects ourselves).

[TheCrew07]

It doesn't matter what the other players in the trade do, it matters what the players we received have done.

 

I mostly agree with this, however I don't believe it's that black and white. Trade analysis shouldn't be about what the prospects traded have done or didn't do, that's very superficial analysis in my opinion. The prospects had a definable and set value at the time of the trade, so ultimately any trade analysis should be about the value received vs the value given as well as the resulting domino effect on the organization. Did the trade ultimately solve the problem or did it turn out to be a purely temporary measure? What if we don't resign Greinke and just end up with draft pick compensation for him? Was the move worth it then if our pitching drastically drops off? The same happened with the Sabathia and that team didn't have any kind of legitimate shot to make a post season run with just Sabathia and Yo coming off his ACL injury after Sheets went on the DL. The "we made the playoffs so the trade was worth it" defense of the Sabathia, Marcum, and Greinke trades stops too short because it completely ignores the state of the organization and the state of the pitching for the Brewers MLB team once those players leave. The domino effect must also be considered which in turn raises the question was the player acquired the best possible value for that package?

 

I'm not talking about the sentimental value of being relevant or being in the playoffs, I'm asking people to put their emotion aside and try to be as objective as possible. Have these trades objectively moved the organization forward on the field? I would argue not, especially with how thin the organization has become, and it was actually worse last year, we didn't have 3 prospects we could use to bolster the pen and/or rotation but Peralta, Fiers, and now Thornburg have all contributed in 2012. A couple of season ending injuries in 2011 and we don't sniff the playoffs either... which also raises the question about continually "going for it" when a key injury can sink your entire season. Can the risk be continually justified with objective analysis? I'm not talking about taking a shot here and there, I'm talking about buying every year, year in and year out, until you run out of prospects to spend. Wouldn't logic suggest that a GM should play it both ways? Sometimes selling, sometimes buying? What impact prospects have we acquired back via a trade?

 

Now whether you believe simply making the playoffs was enough is another question.

 

I completely agree this is crux of both sides of the argument.

 

edit: I see you didn't really say it was a bad trade but that was my initial impression after reading how you mentioned Odorizzi lighting it up. I thought really highly of Odorizzi but like I said, he was years away from helping the club and I think the Greinke trade worked out fine (especially if we can turn around and sell him for a few prospects ourselves).

 

As are any draft picks that would come as compensation for losing Greinke, it could be just like Sabathia if a team like the Cubs were to go after him on a long-term deal (a team with a top 10 pick), we'd be looking at a sandwich pick and a 2nd rounder for compensation. The Cubs are not as far away as people seem to think they are, it's not as if a team has to be competitive today to sign Greinke tomorrow. The Cubs have 3 hitting prospects in AAA that are MLB ready, with Greinke the Pirates could make a significant jump, Cole is only a year away and is a better prospect than Thornburg, all of a sudden the Pirates would have the best 1-3 in the division. I don't want to get carried away with the different scenarios but I don't exactly see Milwaukee as a team on the rise but I could make a legit argument for 5-6 teams that haven't been discussed as suitors for Greinke making a play for him. Best case for us any draft pick compensation would be ready to pitch or perform in 2015, how do we bridge the gap through 2013-14? When do we quit hoping to as Melvin said, "win 8 or 9 out of 10 and we're right back in it", and look to build more depth which allows for a sustained run of success?

 

The value gained from Melvin's signature moves will be completely short lived, 4.5 seasons of above average to outstanding pitching from 3 different players over 3 different MLB seasons while the organization still hasn't proven it can develop pitching like the Rays, Giants, Braves, and so on. Could we have gotten more longevity in the rotation using the same players we sold if we had bought different pitchers? The dominoes only fell this way because Melvin chose that path, not because it was the only path available.

 

The root of this problem goes all the way back to 2004-05, it's never been addressed and keeps coming back around. I'm really high on Thornburg, but I was really high on Parra as well, not to mention Eveland, Hendrickson, and on down the line. I'm a much more educated fan now, but I don't see a Gallardo in our minor leagues that I'd go out on a limb for (Odorizzi was that young man for me), we need to hit on a run of pitching prospects like we did hitting prospects with Fielder, Braun, Hart, Weeks, and Hardy or our pitching problems will never truly be solved. If we can't produce pitching we'll perpetually be in this state of close but not good enough especially since Melvin hasn't proven he's willing or able to trade for impact cost controlled pitching. Unfortunately I don't feel any where near as strong about this current group of pitching prospects as I did that first wave of hitting prospects, there's just too many unknowns with every pitcher from Peralta in AAA through Gagnon in A for me.