The Combined 'We're Trading Greinke' Thread (part 1)

[monty57]

Why would the Brewers trade him to the Tigers? At this point they have the same record as the Brewers, and are further out of the playoffs

 

I guess my response would be some teams are more aggressive than others. Detroit paid a bundle for Fielder and if they can get a legitimate ace for one or two prospects they may do it. Detroit is in the bottom third of team ERA and could certainly use an upgrade. Two of their starters have ERA's over 5.00.

 

There are a couple of reasons the Tigers may be in a different situation than the Brewers:

 

The first, and the reason I think the Brewers need to have a quick trigger finger this year, is the amount of talent the Brewers will lose to free agency after this season. The Brewers either have to make the playoffs this season or sell. Missing the playoffs and then losing so many free agents "for nothing" will not sit well with fans and would probably mean a lot less tickets sold next year, which would mean less revenue, which would mean less money for free agents and therefore a greater need for young talent where we are currently pretty thin.

 

The second is that while our owner wants to win now, their owner has to win now. He admittedly wants to win a World Series before he dies, and he doesn't think he has too many years left.

 

Of course, I may be wrong, and the Tigers may decide to stand pat and hold onto their prospects, but I wouldn't count them out as suitors if we were to decide to sell.

[JohnBriggs12]

You make a good point about Illitch. I think his age factored in his offer to Fielder. But at 4 1/2 games out, and nobody in the division looking strong, I expect Attanasio to be thinking buying, not selling.

[homer]

Haven't read through the entire thread but any chance the brewers trade Greinke and then re-sign him ala Cliff Lee?

 

Due to the new collective bargaining rules he can be signed without the Brewers having to forfeit a draft pick.

 

http://mlbbuzz.yardbarker.com/blog/mlbbuzz/a_new_deadline_twist/10991756?new_post=true

[reillymcshane]

You make a good point about Illitch. I think his age factored in his offer to Fielder. But at 4 1/2 games out, and nobody in the division looking strong, I expect Attanasio to be thinking buying, not selling.

john, i think you're right on all counts here. Illitch would probably pay for Greinke. But Mark A hasn't shown he's the kind of guy who gives up. There's still way too much baseball to play before we throw in the towel.

[Raw Biz]

Haven't read through the entire thread but any chance the brewers trade Greinke and then re-sign him ala Cliff Lee?

 

Due to the new collective bargaining rules he can be signed without the Brewers having to forfeit a draft pick.

 

http://mlbbuzz.yardbarker.com/blog/mlbbuzz/a_new_deadline_twist/10991756?new_post=true

 

I (and probably a few others mentioned that). We know he wants to play for a winner. We could give him that chance this year while also make us better for the future. Explain that situation to him (our intent on trading him is to make us a better team for the next few years, not because we don't want him). Then make a run at him in the offseason. I still don't think the Brewers have the talent to compete in the playoffs (and thats IF they could even make the playoffs) so I'd rather sell. But at this point, its still too early. If by early July they are like 7-8 back and playing like they were a few weeks ago (i.e. crap), then I'd look into offers (ideally for Profar, Machado, or Castellanos).

[Kelbysdaddy]

Nicky C will be the next longoria or Zimmerman - watch. It'd be nice if he could do it for the crew.

[Dollarbill13]

Nicky C will be the next longoria or Zimmerman - watch. It'd be nice if he could do it for the crew.

 

Disagree. Seems more like a Placido Polanco to me. High BA, not much else.

[RWeeksFan23]

Is it possible Baltimore trades Machado for Greinke?

[nate82]

Is it possible Baltimore trades Machado for Greinke?

 

Possible but probably not likely. Though if they believe Hardy is going to be there for the long-term they could possibly trade Machado but I am not certain they will.

[JosephC]

I don't think the suggestion of trading Greinke with the intention of re-signing him as a free agent is feasible. If Greinke reaches free agency I don't think there is much of a chance he ends up back in Milwaukee. Too many big market teams will be looking for starters this off-season. Yankees, Red Sox and Cubs just for starters. Greinke can pretend like money doesn't matter but when the Brewer offer comes in at probably something around 100 million and a big market team gets in the 140+ million area then the money will matter. I also don't believe that any of the big market teams will be scared away from the past bouts with social anxiety disorder. When teams evaluate the stat sheet, age, durability...every one looking for starting pitching will have interest in Greinke. If the Brewers haven't taken their best shot at re-signing Greinke yet they should do it now, if they can't get it done by season's end I think the odds are overwhelming that Greinke is pitching elsewhere in 2013.

[Tedaldtada]

I really doubt Greinke could fetch Profar or Machado for us. In fact, I would say expectations on a possible return should be severely tempered.

[monty57]

I really doubt Greinke could fetch Profar or Machado for us. In fact, I would say expectations on a possible return should be severely tempered.

 

The Brewers will get two picks for Greinke if they don't trade him, so the minimum return would have to be better than the projected value of those two picks minus the cost of signing them. The Brewers will not trade Greinke for some mid-tier prospects... if he's traded it will be for a top prospect, multiple good prospects, and/or "proven" MLB player(s).

 

That "top prospect" may or may not be Profar/Machado level (two of the top prospects in the minors), but in my opinion it would at least have to be a Top 50 guy. The reason I have some hope for a Profar/Machado-type lies pretty much solely on the hope that Texas/Baltimore get so excited about the chance of winning a World Series (or in Baltimore's case winning the division) that they are willing to forego some of their future in order to win now.

[Bnowell4evr]

I don't think Greinke's value will suffer much considering the Giants traded Zach Wheeler for a half season of Carlos Beltran with no chance of getting comp picks. If there's a bidding war (and with the way Greinke's pitching there will be) we should get a nice return.

[harrydalton]

I'd like to see them try their best to re-sign Greinke. He's the only true number 1 starter they have. Gallardo is a #2-3 due to inconsistency and Marcum is a #3-4.

 

I'd rather re-sign Greinke at a high but do-able contract and trade Gallardo, despite his favorable contract.

 

Our minor league pitching talent has no #1 starters, but there are a lot of 2-3-4 candidates, some of whom will be ready in a year or two.

[Bombers]

I'd like to see them try their best to re-sign Greinke. He's the only true number 1 starter they have. Gallardo is a #2-3 due to inconsistency and Marcum is a #3-4.

 

I'd rather re-sign Greinke at a high but do-able contract and trade Gallardo, despite his favorable contract.

 

Our minor league pitching talent has no #1 starters, but there are a lot of 2-3-4 candidates, some of whom will be ready in a year or two.

I see this is your first post, so welcome, but huh? Trade Gallardo and the money we owe him?

2013 - $7.5

2014 - $11.5

2015 - $13.0

 

ummmmm, no- I will pass on that. He isn't an ace but he is a good pitcher. Also, Marcum a 3-4? You aren't the first one to call him this but come on really? If anyone thinks Yo is a 2 maybe 3 but yet his ERA & WHIP are all worse than Marcums in 2010, 2011 and this 2012 year is kidding themselves. Marcum is a 2 - 3 talent. And the stats show he has pitched better than Gallardo our so called 2.

 

Also, it is completely unkown what our minor leagues hold. We could just as well have 2 numbers ones than we have none. It's really hard to predict Major League success based on minor league success. So I wouldn't be so quick to judge our minor league system as having not 1 person capable of being an ace.

[monty57]

I'd like to see them try their best to re-sign Greinke. He's the only true number 1 starter they have. Gallardo is a #2-3 due to inconsistency and Marcum is a #3-4.

 

I'd rather re-sign Greinke at a high but do-able contract and trade Gallardo, despite his favorable contract.

 

Our minor league pitching talent has no #1 starters, but there are a lot of 2-3-4 candidates, some of whom will be ready in a year or two.

I see this is your first post, so welcome, but huh? Trade Gallardo and the money we owe him?

2013 - $7.5

2014 - $11.5

2015 - $13.0

 

ummmmm, no- I will pass on that. He isn't an ace but he is a good pitcher. Also, Marcum a 3-4? You aren't the first one to call him this but come on really? If anyone thinks Yo is a 2 maybe 3 but yet his ERA & WHIP are all worse than Marcums in 2010, 2011 and this 2012 year is kidding themselves. Marcum is a 2 - 3 talent. And the stats show he has pitched better than Gallardo our so called 2.

 

Also, it is completely unkown what our minor leagues hold. We could just as well have 2 numbers ones than we have none. It's really hard to predict Major League success based on minor league success. So I wouldn't be so quick to judge our minor league system as having not 1 person capable of being an ace.

 

I pretty much agree with everything you said, but I wouldn't put an absolute "no" on trading Yo. I don't want to trade him, but if someone calls with a ridiculous offer, I'd have to at least consider it. Latos brought back Volquez, Yonder Alonzo and Yasmani Grandal. If we could get a good "MLB proven" young pitcher and two top 100 prospects, it would be pretty tempting to trade him.

[Bombers]

I pretty much agree with everything you said, but I wouldn't put an absolute "no" on trading Yo. I don't want to trade him, but if someone calls with a ridiculous offer, I'd have to at least consider it. Latos brought back Volquez, Yonder Alonzo and Yasmani Grandal. If we could get a good "MLB proven" young pitcher and two top 100 prospects, it would be pretty tempting to trade him.

I agree with that. If you can get a crazy return, then yes trade him.

[fondybrewfan]

Gallardo definitely shouldn't be off the table; but you can't really do that unless some other rotation spots are solidified. Realy Gallardo is the only guy currently in the rotation that would be a lock for the 2013 rotation. You can't trade him without having some certainty for the other spots.

 

Really Braun is probably the only untradeable player on the Crew right now; everyone else could and should be traded if the price is right.

[RockCoCougars]

Latos brought back Volquez, Yonder Alonzo and Yasmani Grandal.

 

What am I missing on Alonso? He's basically put up the same stats as Ishikawa this season, but Ishikawa has been hurt and/or a part time player.

[Oldcity]

I kind of agree on Alonso. He's been a good but not great hitter throughout the minors. Never had the power you'd like from a first baseman. I don't fully understand why he was rated so high as a prospect.

[harrydalton]

The premise of shopping Gallardo was if they could re-sign Greinke ASAP.

 

Marcum has to rely on command rather than great stuff. #3 is my evaluation of him on a good pitching staff adn #4 on a great staff.

 

I'd get rid of both him and Gallardo to keep Greinke.

 

FYI-I've closely followed MLB since the Braves in 1957. I just want people to think about things a bit differently. This team ain't goin' nowhere right now.

[monty57]

I just want people to think about things a bit differently. This team ain't goin' nowhere right now.

 

I'm with you on this, but not necessarily on Marcum. Since coming back from his surgery, Marcum has been as good or better than Greinke. Greinke had one monster year, and his stuff's "sexier" than Marcum's, so Greinke will get a huge money deal and be worth more to us in trade, but he may not be more valueable to a team. Personally, if I had a choice of Greinke at a Matt Cain contract or Marcum for 3 years / $30-40MM, I'd take Marcum. Unfortunately, I think the ship's sailed on both of them and would be pretty surprised to see either of them pitching for the Brewers beyond this season. Therefore:

 

1) I'd shop Greinke now, and we should be able to get a really good return for him... probably a Top 50 prospect. In my opinion, he should be on the market now.

 

2) I'd shop Marcum, but if I couldn't get better than the comp picks (a first rounder and a sandwich pick) then I'd offer him the one year deal at the end of the season. If he accepts, I'm fine paying him on a one-year deal. In the likely case he rejects it, we get the picks.

 

3) I'd also shop Hart. An All Star with 1.5 years of relatively inexpensive service time remaining should get a really good return.

 

4) Guys like K-Rod, Veras and Loe will leave for nothing after the season's over, so we might as well try to get something for them. I don't expect too much, but we could get something, and at the very least should get salary relief.

 

As to everyone else on the team, if an offer came in, I'd listen. It would be really hard to pry Braun, Lucroy or Gallardo away, but never say never. The first three trades listed above should net us multiple "Top 100" prospects. If we add this to our current system, we could quickly boost our chances of being a competitive team in the near future.

[Bombers]

I just want people to think about things a bit differently. This team ain't goin' nowhere right now.

 

I'm with you on this, but not necessarily on Marcum. Since coming back from his surgery, Marcum has been as good or better than Greinke. Greinke had one monster year, and his stuff's "sexier" than Marcum's, so Greinke will get a huge money deal and be worth more to us in trade, but he may not be more valueable to a team. Personally, if I had a choice of Greinke at a Matt Cain contract or Marcum for 3 years / $30-40MM, I'd take Marcum. Unfortunately, I think the ship's sailed on both of them and would be pretty surprised to see either of them pitching for the Brewers beyond this season. Therefore:

 

1) I'd shop Greinke now, and we should be able to get a really good return for him... probably a Top 50 prospect. In my opinion, he should be on the market now.

 

2) I'd shop Marcum, but if I couldn't get better than the comp picks (a first rounder and a sandwich pick) then I'd offer him the one year deal at the end of the season. If he accepts, I'm fine paying him on a one-year deal. In the likely case he rejects it, we get the picks.

 

3) I'd also shop Hart. An All Star with 1.5 years of relatively inexpensive service time remaining should get a really good return.

 

4) Guys like K-Rod, Veras and Loe will leave for nothing after the season's over, so we might as well try to get something for them. I don't expect too much, but we could get something, and at the very least should get salary relief.

 

As to everyone else on the team, if an offer came in, I'd listen. It would be really hard to pry Braun, Lucroy or Gallardo away, but never say never. The first three trades listed above should net us multiple "Top 100" prospects. If we add this to our current system, we could quickly boost our chances of being a competitive team in the near future.

Monty I am on board with you (again) ... I am saying the same thing. I think the Brewers have a better chance to aim for 2014 than they do 2013. If you trade away the items you mentioned we could have a lot of top prospects at the Major League Level. Not many people want to sacrafice next year. But I am fine with it. Every now and again, you just need to adjust and move in a different direction. The Weeks, Hart, Gomez, etc project isn't getting us to where we want to be. Lets make some trades while these guys are worth something.

[patrickgpe]

braves have been struggling, how about Andrelton Simmons, maybe a 1st base and SP prospect for Greinke.

[jerichoholicninja]

braves have been struggling, how about Andrelton Simmons, maybe a 1st base and SP prospect for Greinke.

 

I doubt it since they already demoted Pastornicky for Simmons.