The Combined 'We're Trading Greinke' Thread (part 1)

[Raw Biz]

HiAndTight, I thought you were done defending Profar? You just keep saying the same thing over and over again. I think we understand that Profar is going to be a pretty good player. Unless you have something different to add, can we stop adding the same posts over and over? It's getting a little annoying having to scroll through the same long posts over and over again. I'd block you but sometimes you do actually have something good to say (I just don't want to read it 50 times).

[TheCrew07]

It's almost comical that prospects are viewed by some as bigger risks than veteran players who flame out at a similar rate with much larger monetary commitments at stake.

 

If you are referring to my post, it was taken out of context. .

 

Nope, nothing to do with your post. I certainly hope you don't think I've been dogging you as it's pretty clear we are on opposite sides of the team building spectrum, that was just an observation.

 

Just so I'm clear about this, I assume that when you say 70%, you are referring to the 1-10 ranked position player "Success" rate of 62.7% (not looking at the "Superior" rate). Also assuming that you didn't factor in the Shortstop "Bust" rate at the bottom of 70%. I'm sure you could slice and dice the data a number of ways but I don't think it's unreasonable to think that 50/50 is that far off.

 

Actually the number had in my head when I made the post was 67% which is why I should always go back and double check before I post, I was comfortable rounding up to 70% because I'm extremely confident he'll succeed, my bad though for getting the numbers wrong. However, as I'm thinking about it I'd stand by my 70% right now even though that's tacking on 7%. I don't really take the positional breakdowns into consideration at all, there's too little sample and too diverse talent to try to draw any conclusions on that data other than pitchers flame out at a higher rate, which we already knew.

 

My point is simply that Profar isn't a top prospect, he's an elite prospect, and sometimes people around here to get caught up treating all prospects like they are an equal commodity when they aren't. Once again I'll say that if anyone has a specific reason why they don't think Profar will succeed I'd love to discuss it as I've already posted the facets of his game that I'm really excited about. However generic smack about prospects doesn't get very far with me

 

RockCoCougars I think your expectations are pretty unrealistic in terms of his production at the plate. Here's the Texas league batting leaders, sort by OPS, then look at position, then look at age. He's put up an .874 OPS through his first 2 months of AA as a 19 year old, we only had one position player on track to possibly be in AA by the time he was 19, that was Arcia who's done for the season after getting injured in EST. Profar has the 12th highest OPS in the league competing against 1B and OFs, the guy at 11 is a 26 year old SS beating him by .003, his batting line is elite. Will MLB pitchers find a hole in his swing and by able to continually exploit it? Maybe, that's the only part about hitters that's very difficult to project, you just really never "know". I will say that his career path to this point suggests that he's a quick study and is able to make adjustments.

 

I still unsure Profar is a realistic target as I pointed out in the SS thread, if the situation is reversed there is simply no way I would trade the #1 or #2 prospect in all of baseball for half a season or less of starts from anyone. However if a couple of teams got into a bidding war and then a team like Baltimore would start talking to his agent and get a verbal agreement in place prior to a trade then maybe it would work out. Texas doesn't need Greinke long-term, Baltimore is a better fit in that regard.

 

In the end I honestly don't care what position, I care about getting potential impact talent back. I firmly believe that competitive window of any small market team is based entirely on the depth of impact talent within that organization. The competitive window has almost nothing to do with any contracts at the MLB level. Every player eventually has to be replaced and most players should be replaced prior to their mid 30s, so we should never plan to hang onto a player longer than 8-9 years. Personally I'm looking to move on from a guy in that 31-33 year old range... next man up.

 

One last thought, I'm not sure why some are equating selling to rebuilding, not necessarily in this specific thread, but across the transaction and MLB forums, the concepts aren't the same thing at all, they are completely different ideas. Selling is about flipping specific players to cycle young talent back into your organization, rebuilding is about blowing the whole thing up and starting over. Selling is more like a step back to take 2 steps forward, rebuilding you just quit and go back to the beginning. We were extremely fortunate last year to be healthy, and no a trio of 3 week injuries to start the season didn't constitute bad luck with injuries, but from where I'm sitting this season may already be torpedoed. If it's just not in the cards for 2012 what do you lose as an organization by looking to cycle some fresh young talent back into the organization?

 

I'm not convinced that Melvin is capable of making those kinds of moves and I fear that we'll end up with Overbay type moves where we get high floor players back whom are likely to contribute at MLB but don't have to the potential to be difference makers.

 

edit. Clarified my post a bit.

[endaround]

Also, maybe this is just a matter of symantics, but how can Profar be a "once in a generation" talent when he is #7 on the list and Harper, Moore and Strasberg are all labeled "once in a generation" talents? Shouldn't he just be classified a really talented young player who has a good chance of producing at a high level in the MLB?

 

 

Ok, it looks like the last poster is right. I will have to explain myself again.

 

 

Because not one person can name me a shortstop who projects to be a GG caliber defender who can hit for power, who projects to carry a .high .300's OBP(.380/.390) while hitting .300 as well as stealing bases.

 

I asked several times when was the last time a SS like that came up an I got Castro who does NOT draw walks and who is most certainly NOT a GG caliber defender at SS and has major questions about him being able to stay at SS.

 

And you're asking ME about why I think he is a once in a generation type player. Don't then attribute other players labels as once in a generation type player label to ME? I never said those guys were "once in a generation." I never said either way, though Harper is.

 

 

But does it make you feel better to know that he's now the #2 prospect in all the minors behind ONLY Dylan Bundy? And I'm sick of rattling off how impressive a debut he has to push Profar to #2, so if you don't know, look him up.

 

 

Still though, I've had several people call me out on that comment and yet have been unable to find one single player to compare him to in the last decade or so.

 

Troy Tulowitzki is pretty good. You might have heard of him?

[paul253]

Ok well getting back a little more on topic. Who is looking like they'd be a suitor for Greinke and what will they offer us? Obviously Texas has been discussed but who else?

 

NYY- 2.5 games behind Baltimore and TB right now. They shoot for World Series or bust every year and have a couple of pitching prospects that might interest us in Banuelos and Bentances.

 

Baltimore - If they are still in it at the break they may want to throw their fans a bone and obtain Greinke. I don't know how good of a match it is though. They will not give up Bundy and I doubt they trade Machado so who else do they have that we might want?

 

Cleveland - They made a huge splash for Jimenez last season and may be a little more cautious this year. Still, they are in first place when they weren't expected to and may take a chance on Greinke. Without being able to get draft picks for him though I don't think it's likely.

 

Detroit - Also been talked about here. They are in a win now mindset with the Fielder signing. A 1-2 of Verlander and Greinke would be tough to match. I'd take Castellanos or Turner.

 

LAA - Probably won't catch Texas but may play for that extra wild card. Do they have anyone that may interest us?

 

Washington - They've been very aggressive as of late and could use another front line starter. Not sure what they have that we'd like.

 

LAD- Probably the front runner for the NL Pennant right now. Again, not too familiar with their system so not sure what they have that we'd ask for.

 

I think teams that believe that can resign him (LAA, NYY, LAD, Texas, Detroit, Washington) would give up more to get him. I still think Texas and Detroit are the best fits right now.

[Dollarbill13]

Cleveland - They made a huge splash for Jimenez last season and may be a little more cautious this year. Still, they are in first place when they weren't expected to and may take a chance on Greinke. Without being able to get draft picks for him though I don't think it's likely.

 

This comment made me think... I wonder if these new rules will hurt the trade market for rentals. Smaller market teams really need to pick and choose whether it's worth it to trade prospects for a rental. In the past, they'd be able to at least get a jump start on replenishing their farm system with the draft picks. In the meantime, the selling team still can get the draft picks if they hold onto the player so they don't really have any reason to demand less in a trade.

[ListachRides]

LAA - Probably won't catch Texas but may play for that extra wild card. Do they have anyone that may interest us?

 

I'd only expect LA to get involved if Weaver's injury is serious. Should that happen, I could see Greinke traded for a package built around AAA pitcher Garret Richards and AA ss Jean Segura. I don't love either guy, but they're both top 100 prospects who are fairly close to the majors and it strikes me as a realistic return for half a season of Greinke.

 

The Blue Jays weren't on your list, but a few weeks back Rosenthal mentioned them as a possible suitor for Garza or Greinke should either become available. An obvious target would be AAA ss Adeiny Hechavarria, though I wouldn't want him to be the centerpiece as most people seem skeptical of his bat. They're system is stacked, though, so finding a few other good pieces wouldn't be difficult. If they'd part with Jake Marisnick, I'd do cartwheels.

[igor67]

If I may make some counter arguments to the draft pick issue. That bubbled up a couple of years ago as a significant factor, but I think they actually helped in part to suppress the trade market for awhile when every GM and the uncle started overvaluing all prospects merely because they were cheap. I think the impact of the second wild card on really keeping teams out of seller mode is going to be the most profound. You are getting down to such a small pool of teams that prices will rise back up, and I think in part the simplicity of the process and not having to guesstimate whether a guy will be type A and/or if he will resign and or take arby... Perhaps the bigger danger down the road could be if teams stop going for it because of the extra wild card and are more content to sit around with middle of the road teams for longer periods of time. I think by having it be a play-in game you cut down on that risk, and keep a pretty good motivation for team to win the divisions.

[monty57]

Also, maybe this is just a matter of symantics, but how can Profar be a "once in a generation" talent when he is #7 on the list and Harper, Moore and Strasberg are all labeled "once in a generation" talents? Shouldn't he just be classified a really talented young player who has a good chance of producing at a high level in the MLB?

 

 

Ok, it looks like the last poster is right. I will have to explain myself again.

 

 

Because not one person can name me a shortstop who projects to be a GG caliber defender who can hit for power, who projects to carry a .high .300's OBP(.380/.390) while hitting .300 as well as stealing bases.

 

I asked several times when was the last time a SS like that came up an I got Castro who does NOT draw walks and who is most certainly NOT a GG caliber defender at SS and has major questions about him being able to stay at SS.

 

And you're asking ME about why I think he is a once in a generation type player. Don't then attribute other players labels as once in a generation type player label to ME? I never said those guys were "once in a generation." I never said either way, though Harper is.

 

 

But does it make you feel better to know that he's now the #2 prospect in all the minors behind ONLY Dylan Bundy? And I'm sick of rattling off how impressive a debut he has to push Profar to #2, so if you don't know, look him up.

 

 

Still though, I've had several people call me out on that comment and yet have been unable to find one single player to compare him to in the last decade or so.

 

 

Easy killer. You are calling everyone out for not reading your posts, but if you'd read mine you'd know that I like Profar and have been touting him and Machado as the "dream scenarios" for trading Greinke. I've just heard a lot of players being called "once in a generation" lately, and it just seemed that there should only be one "once in a generation" every generation. Nothing more. As I said, it was just a matter of semantics. No need to get upset, and comments like "so if you don't know, look him up" are the reason so many of your back-and-forths with other posters seem to get pretty vitriolic. It implies the poster to whom you disagree is stupid, uninformed or both, and that's not often the case on this board.

[Kelbysdaddy]

Ok guys, lets calm down. No need for anyone to be pissing each other off. Getting back to the topic........ listachrides is my new favorite forum handle.

[paul253]

If Texas is looking to buy but won't give up Profar what about Mike Olt? The guy is tearing up AA. We could let him sit in Huntsville the rest of the year then move him up to Nashville next year with the idea of him being a full time player by 2014 (yes we'd have to trade Ramirez). Or we could let Olt move up when he is ready and shift Ramirez to first when he is ready.

[HiAndTight]

If Texas is looking to buy but won't give up Profar what about Mike Olt? The guy is tearing up AA. We could let him sit in Huntsville the rest of the year then move him up to Nashville next year with the idea of him being a full time player by 2014 (yes we'd have to trade Ramirez). Or we could let Olt move up when he is ready and shift Ramirez to first when he is ready.

 

Yeah, I mentioned Olt earlier. He looks like he could be a stud, they've got Andrus who is a SS already and Kinsler, so with Profar coming up, they could either play Olt at 1st base(most likely if not traded as he's got a big bat and no big league 1st basemen at the big league level..at least not a very good one) with Beltre at 3rd.

 

But for Greinke, I doubt they'd think twice about giving him up. And he could be a real impact bat in the very near future for us. I'd hold up for Leonys Martin also though.

 

Oswalt is a question mark with his back, Yu's a question with his 1st year pitching on a difference schedule, and while they've got good arms, Greinke would give them an ace.

 

I think they'd be more likely to give us those two than Profar....though I continue to hope very seriously that I'm wrong.

[HiAndTight]

Also, maybe this is just a matter of symantics, but how can Profar be a "once in a generation" talent when he is #7 on the list and Harper, Moore and Strasberg are all labeled "once in a generation" talents? Shouldn't he just be classified a really talented young player who has a good chance of producing at a high level in the MLB?

 

 

Ok, it looks like the last poster is right. I will have to explain myself again.

 

 

Because not one person can name me a shortstop who projects to be a GG caliber defender who can hit for power, who projects to carry a .high .300's OBP(.380/.390) while hitting .300 as well as stealing bases.

 

I asked several times when was the last time a SS like that came up an I got Castro who does NOT draw walks and who is most certainly NOT a GG caliber defender at SS and has major questions about him being able to stay at SS.

 

And you're asking ME about why I think he is a once in a generation type player. Don't then attribute other players labels as once in a generation type player label to ME? I never said those guys were "once in a generation." I never said either way, though Harper is.

 

 

But does it make you feel better to know that he's now the #2 prospect in all the minors behind ONLY Dylan Bundy? And I'm sick of rattling off how impressive a debut he has to push Profar to #2, so if you don't know, look him up.

 

 

Still though, I've had several people call me out on that comment and yet have been unable to find one single player to compare him to in the last decade or so.

 

 

Easy killer. You are calling everyone out for not reading your posts, but if you'd read mine you'd know that I like Profar and have been touting him and Machado as the "dream scenarios" for trading Greinke. I've just heard a lot of players being called "once in a generation" lately, and it just seemed that there should only be one "once in a generation" every generation. Nothing more. As I said, it was just a matter of semantics. No need to get upset, and comments like "so if you don't know, look him up" are the reason so many of your back-and-forths with other posters seem to get pretty vitriolic. It implies the poster to whom you disagree is stupid, uninformed or both, and that's not often the case on this board.

 

 

Well, I disagree that my posts with "many other," posters have been "bitterly scathing," but how's about we just worry about dealing with each other and not play that card, hmm? Lets others work it out with me if they have an issue as none have expressed one hereto now other than TCO7 which I'm fine with. Just seems a juvenile way of arguing to me.

 

With regard to the comment about Bundy, it MAY imply that you don't know anything about him...if I didn't qualify it by saying that I've already stated his outrageous start and stats so many times and am not going to do it again, so if you don't know, you should check it out. Now if you want to cherry pick my words then they can mean a lot of things. If you take them for what they actually said, I pointed out that I'd mentioned Bundy's extremely rare start(now at a 1.00 ERA with 58 K's in 45 IP and 6 walks). Something I only point out to qualify why Profar is rated second.

 

And there is a reason you've heard a lot of players called once in a generation type players recently. Though you're listing additional players who I've never heard called that and whom I have never myself called that to make your point. I'd limit it to Harper, Trout and Profar. Strausburg might be GREAT, but I don't see him being that much better than Verlander who's pretty incredible. Though really...who you've heard called once in a generation is totally besides the point. You're questioning ME for calling Profar for being one by citing what others have said. If I'D called 10 players in this class once in a generation type player, you'd have some point. I didn't. I used that for ONE player. And I stand by it. Seems like an awfully arbitrary issue to take issue with though.

 

 

And if you'd be so thrilled to get Profar, why the argument? Really the epitome of arguing semantics about him being a "once in a generation type player."

 

 

Anyway, STILL haven't heard a single player though in baseball that has the same skill set as Profar? Extraordinary plate awareness for a 19 year old, a plus hit tool, plus-plus defense, plus arm, plus speed....

[HiAndTight]

Ok well getting back a little more on topic. Who is looking like they'd be a suitor for Greinke and what will they offer us? Obviously Texas has been discussed but who else?

 

NYY- 2.5 games behind Baltimore and TB right now. They shoot for World Series or bust every year and have a couple of pitching prospects that might interest us in Banuelos and Bentances.

 

Baltimore - If they are still in it at the break they may want to throw their fans a bone and obtain Greinke. I don't know how good of a match it is though. They will not give up Bundy and I doubt they trade Machado so who else do they have that we might want?

 

Cleveland - They made a huge splash for Jimenez last season and may be a little more cautious this year. Still, they are in first place when they weren't expected to and may take a chance on Greinke. Without being able to get draft picks for him though I don't think it's likely.

 

Detroit - Also been talked about here. They are in a win now mindset with the Fielder signing. A 1-2 of Verlander and Greinke would be tough to match. I'd take Castellanos or Turner.

 

LAA - Probably won't catch Texas but may play for that extra wild card. Do they have anyone that may interest us?

 

Washington - They've been very aggressive as of late and could use another front line starter. Not sure what they have that we'd like.

 

LAD- Probably the front runner for the NL Pennant right now. Again, not too familiar with their system so not sure what they have that we'd ask for.

 

I think teams that believe that can resign him (LAA, NYY, LAD, Texas, Detroit, Washington) would give up more to get him. I still think Texas and Detroit are the best fits right now.

 

 

I wonder if the Yankees would. I mean, my feeling is with is performances in Yankee stadium, he may not be their first choice. The Phillies being out of it or struggling might be the best for the Yankees.

 

Texas is OBVIOUS. They have been so aggressive signing latin american players that I think it MIGHT almost make more sense to perhaps try and trade for a guy that Paul mentioned in Olt and either Leonys Martin(both of whom could start for us next year if we needed or wanted them to) or with all the depth they've got, and the young power arms, maybe a guy centered around Olt and then take 2-3 guys with great tools who haven't performed well yet?

 

Detroit-I think they MIGHT even be the most likely. Their owner is getting so old they're SO desperate to win now, I could see them overpaying. They could use some help in the pen...so maybe Greinke and K-Rod again for Castenellos and Jacob Turner? Might as well aim high.

 

I think Washington's a pretty bad fit. They just sold out to get Gio Gonzalez and have the best staff in the game at the moment with Strausburg, Zimmerman, Gio, Edwin Jackson and Ross Detwiler. Detwiler has the worst ERA at 3.75 and the other 4 are under 3.11(Jackson), Gio(2.35), SS(2.41) and Zimm(2.81).

They really don't seem to match up to well.

 

The two LA teams however would seem like REALLY strong fits. The Dodgers have something going right now, and with their offense being above average, if they could put Kershaw/Greinke/Bills and hope Cappy and Harang could keep it up, that could be enough to get Magic into the WS. Not sure who we could get. Maybe Lee and Eovoldi?

 

The Angels with Weaver, Wilson and Haren are pretty tough. Like someone else mentioned, it depends on Weaver.

 

I think it ends up being the Rangers, the Tigers, MAYBE a team like Baltimore/Toronto/Boston..all three of whom could re-sign him after the season. Just see who's still hanging around in another month.

 

 

Another team that'd be interesting would be the Reds. God knows he'd be huge in their park with his ability to strike people out, WE wouldn't have to really worry he'd re-sign there long term as I think they're chalk full of long term commitments and they do have a couple of nice pieces we could get back.

 

Billy Hamilton would be a HELLUVA lotta fun to watch.

 

Hamilton has 70 SB's and 14 CS's in just 50 games so far this year, has a .400 OBP this year in HighA and has done well adjusting to every level he's played at so far.

 

I know very little about anyone else they have.

 

One darkhorse might be the White Sox....they always seem to do the unexpected. But I don't like both of their top rated pitchers are relievers or projected to be. Sale before the start of the year woulda been nice, and I'd definitely want Beckham thrown in just because I think he's still got the talent.

[3and2Fastball]

Billy Hamilton is pretty amazing. He's a guy who can score from first standing up on a single up the middle. I doubt the Reds would trade him to us, even as desperate as they may be for upgrades at pitcher to get to the next level

[Dollarbill13]

Anyway, STILL haven't heard a single player though in baseball that has the same skill set as Profar? Extraordinary plate awareness for a 19 year old, a plus hit tool, plus-plus defense, plus arm, plus speed....

 

I dunno... Furcal and Andrus come to mind. Profar might have a little more power potential (sounds like he could end up as a 20 HR guy or so). For what it's worth, I haven't read anything that rates him as plus-plus defense. I'm not saying that's wrong but I haven't seen it.

 

For what it's worth, here is a pre-season scouting report on him that assesses his tools on a 20-80 scale. http://baseballprospectnation.com/2012/02/03/scouting-report-jurickson-profar-ss/

 

By the way, even if Profar would "just" turn into a .360/.420 SS with good defense, I'd gladly trade Greinke for that (assuming we're sellers)

[HiAndTight]

Anyway, STILL haven't heard a single player though in baseball that has the same skill set as Profar? Extraordinary plate awareness for a 19 year old, a plus hit tool, plus-plus defense, plus arm, plus speed....

 

I dunno... Furcal and Andrus come to mind. Profar might have a little more power potential (sounds like he could end up as a 20 HR guy or so). For what it's worth, I haven't read anything that rates him as plus-plus defense. I'm not saying that's wrong but I haven't seen it.

 

For what it's worth, here is a pre-season scouting report on him that assesses his tools on a 20-80 scale. http://baseballprospectnation.com/2012/02/03/scouting-report-jurickson-profar-ss/

 

By the way, even if Profar would "just" turn into a .360/.420 SS with good defense, I'd gladly trade Greinke for that (assuming we're sellers)

 

 

Well, in your scouting report, he's graded as a 60/70 defense. That's 60 right now with the potential to be a 70.

A potential 70 hit tool, 60 arm....

 

 

Some interesting quotes, and mind you, this is all BEFORE he started to dominate AA having turned 19 year old just at the start of ST'ing.

 

Has everything necessary to be a face of the franchise player, on and off the field.

 

Makeup: Off the charts. Calm, cool and collected on the field. Exceptional work ethic before and after games and during the off-season. Extremely confident player. Very personable and outgoing. High maturation level for his age.

Will be a doubles machine no matter what and could end up with at least 15 home runs easily

 

 

 

Again, this all before his AA performance in which he's currently hitting near .300/.370/.494 with an OPS of .863. Again, mind you, he'd just turned 19 before the start of the season.

 

The way K-rod and Axford have pitched this year....I'm feeling less and less apprehension with throwing in either to get this guy.

 

 

Long way away, but this is a guy who could be a 6-8 WAR player in his prime...possibly even higher.

 

 

 

Anyway, Furcal and Andrus and even Reyes are similar players, but I think are all lacking significantly in one area or another as compared to Profar's upside. Derek Jeter with his OBP, power, hitting ability could be close if Profar reaches his potential, but he was never a great defender(and I do seriously doubt he has a Jeter type offensive career).

 

Pretty high praise for the guy though.

[RockCoCougars]

Why would the Brewers trade him to the Tigers? At this point they have the same record as the Brewers, and are further out of the playoffs.

 

If Texas is looking to buy but won't give up Profar

 

...then they can pound sand. IF, and that's a big if, I'd be willing to trade Greinke, you had better believe that the other team's number one prospect is the starting point. Why help Texas out by taking secondary prospects and/or fringe major leaguers?

[fondybrewfan]

With the Crew only 4.5 games out of first; this thread should be temporarily shelved. Way to close for the Brewers to consider shopping anybody. We should know in the next 2-3 weeks whether the Crew will be buyers or sellers. If sellers Grienke will probably be at the top of the list since he will bring the most return back of anybody the Crew would realistically trade.

[monty57]

If Texas is looking to buy but won't give up Profar

 

...then they can pound sand. IF, and that's a big if, I'd be willing to trade Greinke, you had better believe that the other team's number one prospect is the starting point. Why help Texas out by taking secondary prospects and/or fringe major leaguers?

 

My bare minimum is that the return has to be greater than the perceived value of the comp picks we'd receive + the value of Greinke's remaining a Brewer for the remainder of the season minus the cost of paying Greinke and signing the comp picks. If a team's "other" prospects meet this qualification, then I'm fine trading him for the "other" prospects. If not, then we should just hold onto Greinke.

 

And if you'd be so thrilled to get Profar, why the argument? Really the epitome of arguing semantics about him being a "once in a generation type player."

 

I wasn't arguing anything. I said he looks good, but there's still a chance he could fail as is the case with pretty much anyone we'd trade for. I then threw in an afterthought which I said was a matter of semantics. I didn't mention you, in fact I was just thinking that I had heard the phrase "once in a generation player" used over and over again on MLB Network and ESPN, so I just pondered that maybe it's being overused. I didn't really think it was too big of a deal. Sorry if my disliking a statement national TV personalities overuse upsets you.

 

I'm sure Profar is "epic," "awesome," and "once in a generation." I'll bet he'll even get a few "Booyah's." Too bad it probably won't happen for the Brewers, as our taking 4 of 6 from the two worst teams in baseball probably ends any speculation of our being sellers this season.

[Dollarbill13]

Keep in mind with the comp picks that they'll cost >$1M each to sign whereas a prospect is essentially free and probably closer to the majors.

[monty57]

Keep in mind with the comp picks that they'll cost >$1M each to sign whereas a prospect is essentially free and probably closer to the majors.

 

Yeah, and we'd have to pay Greinke the rest of this season. You're probably looking at saving around $9-10MM for Greinke and $6-7MM for Marcum if we trade them for prospects rather than letting them pitch out the season and offering the one year deal to get the comp picks.

 

Honestly, I kind of doubt we have enough money to sign our #1 & 2 plus two #1's and two comp picks from Greinke and Marcum. That's three #1's and two comp picks to go along with the rest of our draft. Our late-first-round picks this year were around $1.7-1.9MM each, so we'd probably be spending around $10MM just to sign our top five picks.

[RockCoCougars]

Keep in mind with the comp picks that they'll cost >$1M each to sign whereas a prospect is essentially free and probably closer to the majors.

 

Yeah, and we'd have to pay Greinke the rest of this season. You're probably looking at saving around $9-10MM for Greinke and $6-7MM for Marcum if we trade them for prospects rather than letting them pitch out the season and offering the one year deal to get the comp picks.

 

Honestly, I kind of doubt we have enough money to sign our #1 & 2 plus two #1's and two comp picks from Greinke and Marcum. That's three #1's and two comp picks to go along with the rest of our draft. Our late-first-round picks this year were around $1.7-1.9MM each, so we'd probably be spending around $10MM just to sign our top five picks.

 

If the Brewers let both Greinke and Marcum walk, they had better have 'enough money' to sign the resultant draft picks. Such a thing may have happened under the waning days of the shoestring Selig era, but I expect more now.

[monty57]

Keep in mind with the comp picks that they'll cost >$1M each to sign whereas a prospect is essentially free and probably closer to the majors.

 

Yeah, and we'd have to pay Greinke the rest of this season. You're probably looking at saving around $9-10MM for Greinke and $6-7MM for Marcum if we trade them for prospects rather than letting them pitch out the season and offering the one year deal to get the comp picks.

 

Honestly, I kind of doubt we have enough money to sign our #1 & 2 plus two #1's and two comp picks from Greinke and Marcum. That's three #1's and two comp picks to go along with the rest of our draft. Our late-first-round picks this year were around $1.7-1.9MM each, so we'd probably be spending around $10MM just to sign our top five picks.

 

If the Brewers let both Greinke and Marcum walk, they had better have 'enough money' to sign the resultant draft picks. Such a thing may have happened under the waning days of the shoestring Selig era, but I expect more now.

 

I probably stated that poorly. Melvin & Co have done a good job of signing their top picks, so I'm sure they'll reserve money for the draft. However, it's just an angle I hadn't thought too much of that will need to be considered while putting a team together for 2013. If they need to reserve several extra million dollars more than normal for the draft, that will need to come out of some other part of the budget, and that will probably be MLB team payroll.

[paul253]

With the Crew only 4.5 games out of first; this thread should be temporarily shelved. Way to close for the Brewers to consider shopping anybody.

I understand what you are saying, but I just get kind of annoyed by responses like this. This thread isn't about whether or not they should sell. It's about who they should trade and what they should get back IF they do decide to sell. I don't think anyone is suggesting they sell if they are only 4 games out of first place.

 

That being said, even in a weak division this does not look like a playoff team to me. And series wins against the Cubs and Padres don't change my mind

 

...then they can pound sand. IF, and that's a big if, I'd be willing to trade Greinke, you had better believe that the other team's number one prospect is the starting point. Why help Texas out by taking secondary prospects and/or fringe major leaguers?

Olt is probably the Ranger's second best prospect right now. He's hitting .306 with a OBP over .400 and 19 home runs in AA. Plus he plays a position where we don't really have any legit prospects anymore (especially with Taylor Green looking like he'll never get a shot to be a full time third basemen). There certainly may be other factors why we'd pass on him but just because he's not technically ranked #1 in the Rangers system doesn't mean we shouldn't take him.

 

Why would the Brewers trade him to the Tigers? At this point they have the same record as the Brewers, and are further out of the playoffs

 

I guess my response would be some teams are more aggressive than others. Detroit paid a bundle for Fielder and if they can get a legitimate ace for one or two prospects they may do it. Detroit is in the bottom third of team ERA and could certainly use an upgrade. Two of their starters have ERA's over 5.00.

[RockCoCougars]

Olt is probably the Ranger's second best prospect right now. He's hitting .306 with a OBP over .400 and 19 home runs in AA. Plus he plays a position where we don't really have any legit prospects anymore (especially with Taylor Green looking like he'll never get a shot to be a full time third basemen). There certainly may be other factors why we'd pass on him but just because he's not technically ranked #1 in the Rangers system doesn't mean we shouldn't take him.

 

From being a Brewers fan back in the days of the El Paso Diablos, I learned to put little stock in hitting numbers from the Texas League. It's basically a hitter's paradise. In the event that Greinke is on the market, I'd make Texas go big or I'd hang up on them.... you have to give to get. I'm not going to accept 'number two' plus one of their surplus MLB arms and/or multiple low minor guys who will likely never pan out.