The Combined 'We're Trading Greinke' Thread (part 1)

[HiAndTight]

The asinine HOF comment though was spot on. Truly furthered the conversation......

 

 

Edit-By the way, I just took a look at his updated stats. REALLY Rock? Were you just waiting for his average to drop a tick below .300 in AA as a 19 year old so you could come on here and say, "he's not even a .300 hitter?"

 

You are the one who referred to him as a 'once in a generation type' and 'as close to a can't miss future superstar at SS as you can get', hence the HOF comment. I have not been waiting for anything on his average to fall- honestly I don't know much about him, but his stats at AA are not jaw dropping by any means.

 

name ONE other current big league SS who projects to be similar to Profar?

 

Call me crazy... but I'd take Starlin Castro in a heartbeat. He's only a few years older and already proven that he can hit big league pitching.

 

You do have a point about Texas trading Profar. If he's half as good as you think that he is, there is no way.

 

 

First of all, there are a lot of people who don't believe Castro can stay at SS. Big gap from being a GG caliber defender.

Second, you want to talk about how a guy hitting .298 at age 19 in AA isn't "even," hitting .300, Castro at 19 hit .288/.347/.397 and a .744 OPS, roughly .120 points lower than what Profar is doing right now.

 

Not sure what it takes to get your "jaw to drop," but what he's doing at AA at age 19 combined with his defense is as close to "jaw dropping," as anyone in the minors right now short of..again, the one guy rated ahead of him, Dylan Bundy.

And it's funny you mention Castro. Profar's an inch shorter, but 25 pounds lighter, but he doesn't have the frame to add power...yet he's slugging .497 right now. Again, that's 100 points higher than Castro...who by the way didn't start the year at AA. He started at HiA at 19. Profar was there at 18 and again, his numbers blew Castro's out of the water. So who will be better? I don't know. I asked to name a SIMILAR player however. Castro isn't.

 

But hey, if we're going by who's "proven," at the MLB level, then doesn't the whole prospect thing become moot? We could be looking for a package like Todd Helton, maybe Giambi and perhaps a third...if being "proven," at the MLB level is so important.

 

And you can defend the HOF comment all you want, it's pretty obvious it was based on nothing I said. I mean, it's cute you're trying to defend it, but you brought up HOF to be condescending. There's a 20 year career and a long way from being an elite prospect and "as close" to can't miss as you can get and HOF, so the only reason for that comment was to be a....I'll let you draw your own conclusions.

 

Most people, including yourself have talked about how important the jump to AA is. And here's a SS who's GG caliber slugging .860 at AA after having JUST turned 19 as doesn't turn 20 until next Feb. I'm sure there are 22/23 year olds putting up more impressive numbers in AA and AAA. There's a reason they're rated well below them.

[craigharmann]

So if I were the Rangers I would definitely look at adding Greinke for about 14 starts as that is going to make them stronger in a push for the playoffs and beyond.

 

Here's the deal. The Rangers have made the World Series the last 2 years and fallen just short. Hamilton will be a FA, and will likely get big bucks elsewhere. Feliz is hurt, so why wouldn't they look to strengthen their pitching staff? I'm sure they'd explore Greinke, as well they should.

[RockCoCougars]

And you can defend the HOF comment all you want, it's pretty obvious it was based on nothing I said. I mean, it's cute you're trying to defend it, but you brought up HOF to be condescending. There's a 20 year career and a long way from being an elite prospect and "as close" to can't miss as you can get and HOF, so the only reason for that comment was to be a....I'll let you draw your own conclusions.

 

Of course I was being sarcastic. Over the years, we've seen better and more hyped prospects than this bust time and time again. It's probably a coin flip that he's going to be a star player. At any rate, I'm not sure that I want to trade a Cy Young caliber pitcher and essentially start a rebuild based on that coin flip.

 

You say a Greinke/Profar deal would be a 'steal for the Brewers, and I think that's hyperbole. I'm not going to get into a personal war over this. Obviously, you are aroused over this Profar guy, and I'll leave it at that.

[Raw Biz]

I would love to get Profar and I don't think it's far-fetched to think the Rangers would trade him. Greinke would probably easily make them the favorites to come out of the AL. And Profar is just a prospect. People can say can't-miss, once-in-a-lifetime, etc. all they want. Brandon Wood was also a can't-miss guy if I remember. Andy Marte was supposed to be pretty good too. The point is, prospects don't always pan out, even if they seem can't-miss. That being said, Profar would still be a sweet haul.

[Eye Black]

But hey, if we're going by who's "proven," at the MLB level, then doesn't the whole prospect thing become moot? We could be looking for a package like Todd Helton, maybe Giambi and perhaps a third...if being "proven," at the MLB level is so important.

 

Obviously the 3rd piece would hopefully be Jamie Moyer.

[adambr2]

 

 

If the Brewers could get Profar in a trade for Greinke that would be a real steal. And if they would, I'd be thrilled with that. But I think the B prospect would have to come from us, not them.

 

The Phillies could be interesting though. Dominick Brown+Trevor May.

 

Brown is a fallen prospect for the Phillies, but still extremely talented. May is a top 70 prospect coming into the year, and is striking out about 1 per inning in AA at 22 years old in AA. Struck out 208 in 158 innings last year and has 550 in 430 innings pitched in his minor league career, can throw in the mid 90's (not sure what he tops out at, though probably wouldn't be hard to find) and is extremely durable thus far.

 

Brown is a former top 5 prospect. He's fallen again...quite a bit, not putting up great numbers in AAA.

 

 

I don't know, it's difficult. The more you read about Profar, the more you see he's truly a once in a generation type player. Machado doesn't seem to be as talented(though...still elite), but if I'm the O's, why the hell would I trade the #3 ranked current prospect when I have the #1 in Bundy(Profar being #2) and a very nice core to build around in Weiters one of the top catchers in the game, Adam Jones, Markakis, several very good young pitchers. Perhaps not aces other than Bundy who has had the best start for a prep player I've ever seen(as in followed as it happened).

 

They'd be crazy to give up a potential superstar SS for a short term starting pitcher. Better off signing him in the off-season.

 

I think you are under valuing Greinke by a lot. The Brewers would definitely get Profar for Greinke without adding a B type prospect. Just look at what the Rangers gave up to get Lee for one season and no the idea of getting draft picks wasn't really on the Rangers minds when they traded for Lee. I could see the Brewers getting the same type of players that the Mariners got back in return for trading Lee. I believe Ryan is going to be very aggressive this year and get someone that will be the #2 behind Darvish and there will be no other pitcher that is going to be on the market that is going to fit that bill. Garza comes to mind but the Cubs seem to have this fascination that they are going to get two A type prospects in return for Garza and I believe the Cubs are going to ask for Perez and Profar for Garza and I see the Rangers turning that down and going with Greinke if the Brewers accept Profar and a B type prospect for Greinkie.

 

I don't think you can fairly say this. It was always part of the equation. Part of the package that you had to give up for buying expensive rentals at the deadline was the knowledge that you were also trading Type A compensation (1st or 2nd + sandwich pick) to the buying team. I don't think there was ever a trade where this came into play where it was just ignored.

 

Now a rental is strictly a rental. If you aren't likely to be able to re-sign them, you get nothing for them other than what they give you during the couple months that they're there. No comp if they weren't with you all year. And I think that definitely would be a consideration to a buying team when trading for Greinke.

 

Of course, if you can get multiple desperate teams involved, that's another way to drive up the value.

[HiAndTight]

 

 

If the Brewers could get Profar in a trade for Greinke that would be a real steal. And if they would, I'd be thrilled with that. But I think the B prospect would have to come from us, not them.

 

The Phillies could be interesting though. Dominick Brown+Trevor May.

 

Brown is a fallen prospect for the Phillies, but still extremely talented. May is a top 70 prospect coming into the year, and is striking out about 1 per inning in AA at 22 years old in AA. Struck out 208 in 158 innings last year and has 550 in 430 innings pitched in his minor league career, can throw in the mid 90's (not sure what he tops out at, though probably wouldn't be hard to find) and is extremely durable thus far.

 

Brown is a former top 5 prospect. He's fallen again...quite a bit, not putting up great numbers in AAA.

 

 

I don't know, it's difficult. The more you read about Profar, the more you see he's truly a once in a generation type player. Machado doesn't seem to be as talented(though...still elite), but if I'm the O's, why the hell would I trade the #3 ranked current prospect when I have the #1 in Bundy(Profar being #2) and a very nice core to build around in Weiters one of the top catchers in the game, Adam Jones, Markakis, several very good young pitchers. Perhaps not aces other than Bundy who has had the best start for a prep player I've ever seen(as in followed as it happened).

 

They'd be crazy to give up a potential superstar SS for a short term starting pitcher. Better off signing him in the off-season.

 

I think you are under valuing Greinke by a lot. The Brewers would definitely get Profar for Greinke without adding a B type prospect. Just look at what the Rangers gave up to get Lee for one season and no the idea of getting draft picks wasn't really on the Rangers minds when they traded for Lee. I could see the Brewers getting the same type of players that the Mariners got back in return for trading Lee. I believe Ryan is going to be very aggressive this year and get someone that will be the #2 behind Darvish and there will be no other pitcher that is going to be on the market that is going to fit that bill. Garza comes to mind but the Cubs seem to have this fascination that they are going to get two A type prospects in return for Garza and I believe the Cubs are going to ask for Perez and Profar for Garza and I see the Rangers turning that down and going with Greinke if the Brewers accept Profar and a B type prospect for Greinkie.

 

I don't think you can fairly say this. It was always part of the equation. Part of the package that you had to give up for buying expensive rentals at the deadline was the knowledge that you were also trading Type A compensation (1st or 2nd + sandwich pick) to the buying team. I don't think there was ever a trade where this came into play where it was just ignored.

 

Now a rental is strictly a rental. If you aren't likely to be able to re-sign them, you get nothing for them other than what they give you during the couple months that they're there. No comp if they weren't with you all year. And I think that definitely would be a consideration to a buying team when trading for Greinke.

 

Of course, if you can get multiple desperate teams involved, that's another way to drive up the value.

 

 

 

Agreed. I don't think the Brewers make the trade for CC if they're not getting comp picks back. Of course it was just their luck that Mike Trout, a guy they likely would have picked went to the Angels because Tex rated as a higher prospect than CC(#1 vs #2 which still hurts as I dream of a Lucroy/Trout/Braun/Lawrie middle of the order.

 

And it's POSSIBLE the Rangers want that WS so bad they may look at it and just not care. Doubt it, but I'm as certain as one can be without actually knowing for certain that the Rangers took into consideration the comp picks. Otherwise, Seattle didn't get a very good haul IMO.

 

And despite the fact that I think the Rangers are the favorites right now, how often do the favorites win it? Imagine them running into the Rays with a Matt Moore who's pitching great as your #3 behind Price a legit ace and Shields a great pitcher and an ace with Hellickson as your #4?

 

You confident enough in the front of your rotation? So maybe they look at it and say, "hey, we might have to give away a budding superstar to give us the best chance to win this year, and we can certainly afford to re-sign Andrus who's very good, so lets go for it."

Give them Greinke and good God that team would be hard to beat. Better yet, give them Hart and Greinke and take back Profar and Martin Perez AND a Mike Olt and that could net us three potentially ELITE prospects(plus the pick we'd get in the top 5-10 pick we'd likely have as we'd probably lose close to 100 games without those two) and you'd have a trade that could jump the farm system 15+ spots from this pre-season combined with some breakout performances into the top 5-8. Use next year to save money, build up a bit of a war chest...or hell, sign Greinke as a FA and you'd only lose Hart, but you'd have gained a ton of talent.

 

 

I don't believe it will happen though...but I can dream...or make the trade on my 360...if I cleaned the dust off and played it anymore.

[HiAndTight]

And you can defend the HOF comment all you want, it's pretty obvious it was based on nothing I said. I mean, it's cute you're trying to defend it, but you brought up HOF to be condescending. There's a 20 year career and a long way from being an elite prospect and "as close" to can't miss as you can get and HOF, so the only reason for that comment was to be a....I'll let you draw your own conclusions.

 

Of course I was being sarcastic. Over the years, we've seen better and more hyped prospects than this bust time and time again. It's probably a coin flip that he's going to be a star player. At any rate, I'm not sure that I want to trade a Cy Young caliber pitcher and essentially start a rebuild based on that coin flip.

 

You say a Greinke/Profar deal would be a 'steal for the Brewers, and I think that's hyperbole. I'm not going to get into a personal war over this. Obviously, you are aroused over this Profar guy, and I'll leave it at that.

 

 

Please make a list of all the guys as highly rated who've been busts?

 

Ignoring the fact that EVEN if he was a relative "bust," at the plate, he'd still likely carry and OBP over .300 and be a stellar defender at short, one of the best in the game.

 

And yes, I'm "aroused," over Profar. Another insightful and mature comment. And before you state you don't want to start a "personal war," over something, don't jump into the conversation and act like a clown, THEN profess to take the high road...which you most certainly have not done.

Tell ya what, before you start spouting cliches and insults, educate yourself on Profar and the rarity of what he's doing having just turned 19 in Feb in AA and then get back to me.

 

 

But please do tell, if you don't want to "flip the coin," which again is ridiculous as it suggests it's even money that Profar will in fact be an impact player at the big league level, once again stating your ignorance of his ability, what do you want?

 

Obviously not any prospects who are young and cost controlled for 6 years and project to be superstars as they're all "flips of the coin," right?

[HiAndTight]

So if I were the Rangers I would definitely look at adding Greinke for about 14 starts as that is going to make them stronger in a push for the playoffs and beyond.

 

Here's the deal. The Rangers have made the World Series the last 2 years and fallen just short. Hamilton will be a FA, and will likely get big bucks elsewhere. Feliz is hurt, so why wouldn't they look to strengthen their pitching staff? I'm sure they'd explore Greinke, as well they should.

 

 

I agree on all acounts. Which is why we're focused on the Rangers as a landing point for Greinke. I'm simply stating I don't believe the Rangers will make Profar available. If the Angels were in the same situation, I don't think they'd make Trout available, and Profar is in that same league. I think a guy like Mike Olt, Martin Perez and a third prsopect is very possible.

 

I'm just saying I think to get Profar...who I don't even think is available, would be an incredibly great haul for the Brewers.

 

I do think the Rangers re-sign Hamilton as they've got BIG money coming into that franchise as they're one of about 8 teams drawing better than us and have a fresh 3 billion dollar TV deal and are primed to be a team that can push their payroll into the 160 or so area in the near future IMO.

 

 

Obviously the 3rd piece would hopefully be Jamie Moyer.

 

 

I LIKE IT!!! Hey, he's proven he can get big league hitters out, he's got experience, and trading for prospects is nothing more than a "coin flip," even the best ones!

 

So we've come to an agreement...since we need guys who've PROVEN they can play at the big league level instead of operating logically like a smart small market team should and "flipping coins," on unproven players given all those who haven't panned out in the past, it's Helton, Giambi and Jamie Moyer.

 

 

You just solved our WHOLE problem. PLUS...the Brewers will probably save some money as these guys will likely take less money as they go on Social Security and Medicare. That's a nice savings there. But hey, at least they're proven.

[Oldcity]

Brandon Wood was also a can't-miss guy if I remember. Andy Marte was supposed to be pretty good too. The point is, prospects don't always pan out, even if they seem can't-miss. That being said, Profar would still be a sweet haul.

Oh man, Andy Marte. Around the time I discovered Brewerfan, the love for him here was Profar x 10.

[TheCrew07]

Brandon Wood was also a can't-miss guy if I remember. Andy Marte was supposed to be pretty good too. The point is, prospects don't always pan out, even if they seem can't-miss. That being said, Profar would still be a sweet haul.

Oh man, Andy Marte. Around the time I discovered Brewerfan, the love for him here was Profar x 10.

 

I'd debate that, there were some who liked him, but what does one prospect's success or failure have to do with any other prospect? Aren't they all different people?

 

For the record, Profar is x5 the prospect that Marte ever was. There's projection in his frame, he's tearing up AA as a 19 year old, and the talk is that Texas will move Andrus for him, he's that good.

 

There's top prospects, then there are elite prospects, and then there once in a generation prospects. I don't think we'll see another Harper or Strasburg for awhile but Profar is definitely in the elite category of prospects, there are simply not many players his age that perform like he has at a premium defensive position... they are extremely rare.

 

I doubt Greinke is enough to pull Profar, as I said previously if Dylan Bundy doesn't jump past him he'll be the #1 prospect according to BA, and if/when Bundy jumps past him it will have absoutely nothing to do with Profar's performance this season which has been extraordinary, Bundy is just that good and pitching is at a premium. What team is going to trade the top prospect in all of baseball for half a season worth of starts?

 

It's almost comical that prospects are viewed by some as bigger risks than veteran players who flame out at a similar rate with much larger monetary commitments at stake. I already posted the failure rates for prospects earlier in the SS thread, if you scroll down to the bottom of that link you'll find analysis by prospect ranking and while those rankings aren't absolute it's actually more like a 70% chance that Profar turns out to be as valuable as his talent would suggest. Melvin's success rate in FA is no where near 50% and we're splitting hairs about how good of a prospect Profar is?

 

Yes there will always be Delmon Young type flame outs but there are also Ryan Brauns, Corey Harts, Prince Fielders, Yovani Gallardos...

 

Where's the greater risk... taking a chance on players at league minimum or taking chances on players with 8 digit salaries?

[RockCoCougars]

It's almost comical that prospects are viewed by some as bigger risks than veteran players who flame out at a similar rate with much larger monetary commitments at stake.

 

If you are referring to my post, it was taken out of context. I never once said that I wanted to trade Greinke for 'proven players'. I was replying to the statement that there is not currently 'ONE' shortstop in the major leagues that projects to be as good as 'HIM' (Profar). This was basically a ridiculous assertion that Profar is currently the best thing going in organized baseball at SS. I said that I'd take Starlin Castro over him because he's proven that he can hit MLB pitching over 3 seasons at age 22. I never said that I wanted to trade Greinke for anybody, let alone Castro or a 'proven' player. I really don't want to trade him at all, and I certainly don't think that trading him straight up for a AA player would be a 'steal', no matter how high guys like Keith Law have him rated on one of their lists.

[monty57]

I agree with TheCrew07 that "splitting hairs" on how good Profar is is kind of counter-productive. I've never seen him play, but I'll trust to the scouts/stats and assume he's really good. If we were to do the trade, which side would have to throw in a low-ceiling prospect is probably inconsequential.

 

If the Brewers decide that they are sellers, the minimum they need to get in return for Greinke is the projected value of the comp picks they would receive plus the value of Greinke starting 15 or so more games for the Brewers minus the cost of signing the comp picks and the cost of paying Greinke for the remainder of the season. That's the minimum they would need in return for trading Greinke.

 

Texas and Baltimore are both in 1st place and both have All Star MLB SS's locked up and top SS prospects in the minors, so I'd start with the "dream scenarios" of landing a Profar or Machado and make some calls to Texas and Baltimore. We can make all the assumptions we want, but no one knows what either Texas or Baltimore would do until they were called. Maybe Texas is sick of losing in the World Series, or maybe Baltimore thinks this is their one big chance to stick it to New York and Boston while they're down. Who knows?

 

If they make the trade, great, we've got a really good solution at SS for at least the next six seasons. If they aren't willing to make a trade, I work down from there trying to get the best deal possible. If I can't find anything better than the value described above, I keep Greinke and take the comp picks. Personally, I think that if the Brewers decide to sell, Greinke will be the first piece "sold." At the very least, I'd expect a Top 50 prospect back in return.

 

I think we're all on the same page on this, but I'd like add that I think it's very important that Melvin look for either minor leaguers of guys still in pre-arby. I don't want him to trade Greinke for two decent MLB players with two years left on their contracts. I could see him trying to "keep the window open" by trading for guys already in the majors, and I really hope he doesn't do that.

[Outlander]

But please do tell, if you don't want to "flip the coin," which again is ridiculous as it suggests it's even money that Profar will in fact be an impact player at the big league level, once again stating your ignorance of his ability, what do you want?

 

Saying somebody has a 50% chance of being an impact player isn't really an insult of the player in my book.

[craigharmann]

So if I were the Rangers I would definitely look at adding Greinke for about 14 starts as that is going to make them stronger in a push for the playoffs and beyond.

 

Here's the deal. The Rangers have made the World Series the last 2 years and fallen just short. Hamilton will be a FA, and will likely get big bucks elsewhere. Feliz is hurt, so why wouldn't they look to strengthen their pitching staff? I'm sure they'd explore Greinke, as well they should.

 

 

I agree on all acounts. Which is why we're focused on the Rangers as a landing point for Greinke. I'm simply stating I don't believe the Rangers will make Profar available. If the Angels were in the same situation, I don't think they'd make Trout available, and Profar is in that same league. I think a guy like Mike Olt, Martin Perez and a third prsopect is very possible.

 

Very true. And maybe it's not Profar. Granted, a SS would be our top priority, but maybe it's a 1st baseman or 3rd baseman. Or more pitching. The Rangers system is pretty stocked!

[HiAndTight]

But please do tell, if you don't want to "flip the coin," which again is ridiculous as it suggests it's even money that Profar will in fact be an impact player at the big league level, once again stating your ignorance of his ability, what do you want?

 

Saying somebody has a 50% chance of being an impact player isn't really an insult of the player in my book.

 

 

 

Well, you obviously had a different author to your book than mine.

 

I don't think anyone said it was a coin flip that Harper would be an impact player, did they?

Mike Trout?

 

 

But hey, if people just simply want to say if you're a prospect its' a 50/50 chance you're going to be a impact player, regardless of the mountain of evidence to the contrary, then fine.

 

 

Then I suppose there really is no difference in trading for Profar despite the spectacular #'s he's put up for his age and level and just take the two comp picks back.

 

Better to have two picks to "flip the ole' coin" over than one, right? Hey, until you're proven, it's always just 50/50. There are no mitigating factors!

 

 

Alright, that's about it for me on defending Profar's status. Nobody's done much arguing other than, "he's not even hitting .300(despite hitting .298 and slugging .860 as a kid who just turned 19) and he's not proven, so it's a flip of the coin.

 

I'm sure we'd have passed on Matt Moore because he was a "flip of the coin as well."

 

 

I am curious, we could take a look. How many prospects who have performed well in the upper levels before the age of 20 and have ranked among the top 5(not even just top 2) have been "flip of the coin," impact players in recent years?

[HiAndTight]

Brandon Wood was also a can't-miss guy if I remember. Andy Marte was supposed to be pretty good too. The point is, prospects don't always pan out, even if they seem can't-miss. That being said, Profar would still be a sweet haul.

Oh man, Andy Marte. Around the time I discovered Brewerfan, the love for him here was Profar x 10.

 

I'd debate that, there were some who liked him, but what does one prospect's success or failure have to do with any other prospect? Aren't they all different people?

 

For the record, Profar is x5 the prospect that Marte ever was. There's projection in his frame, he's tearing up AA as a 19 year old, and the talk is that Texas will move Andrus for him, he's that good.

 

There's top prospects, then there are elite prospects, and then there once in a generation prospects. I don't think we'll see another Harper or Strasburg for awhile but Profar is definitely in the elite category of prospects, there are simply not many players his age that perform like he has at a premium defensive position... they are extremely rare.

 

I doubt Greinke is enough to pull Profar, as I said previously if Dylan Bundy doesn't jump past him he'll be the #1 prospect according to BA, and if/when Bundy jumps past him it will have absoutely nothing to do with Profar's performance this season which has been extraordinary, Bundy is just that good and pitching is at a premium. What team is going to trade the top prospect in all of baseball for half a season worth of starts?

 

It's almost comical that prospects are viewed by some as bigger risks than veteran players who flame out at a similar rate with much larger monetary commitments at stake. I already posted the failure rates for prospects earlier in the SS thread, if you scroll down to the bottom of that link you'll find analysis by prospect ranking and while those rankings aren't absolute it's actually more like a 70% chance that Profar turns out to be as valuable as his talent would suggest. Melvin's success rate in FA is no where near 50% and we're splitting hairs about how good of a prospect Profar is?

 

Yes there will always be Delmon Young type flame outs but there are also Ryan Brauns, Corey Harts, Prince Fielders, Yovani Gallardos...

 

Where's the greater risk... taking a chance on players at league minimum or taking chances on players with 8 digit salaries?

 

 

 

I agree. On a board that values ALL the things Profar is doing.

Premium defense at a premium defensive position.

Great OB skills.

Very strong IF arm.

Good speed.

Excelling as a young 19 year old at AA.

 

And yet Keith Law is constantly brought up to diminish his status as though he's the only one touting Profar...

[Raw Biz]

But please do tell, if you don't want to "flip the coin," which again is ridiculous as it suggests it's even money that Profar will in fact be an impact player at the big league level, once again stating your ignorance of his ability, what do you want?

 

Saying somebody has a 50% chance of being an impact player isn't really an insult of the player in my book.

 

 

 

Well, you obviously had a different author to your book than mine.

 

I don't think anyone said it was a coin flip that Harper would be an impact player, did they?

Mike Trout?

 

 

But hey, if people just simply want to say if you're a prospect its' a 50/50 chance you're going to be a impact player, regardless of the mountain of evidence to the contrary, then fine.

 

 

Then I suppose there really is no difference in trading for Profar despite the spectacular #'s he's put up for his age and level and just take the two comp picks back.

 

Better to have two picks to "flip the ole' coin" over than one, right? Hey, until you're proven, it's always just 50/50. There are no mitigating factors!

 

 

Alright, that's about it for me on defending Profar's status. Nobody's done much arguing other than, "he's not even hitting .300(despite hitting .298 and slugging .860 as a kid who just turned 19) and he's not proven, so it's a flip of the coin.

 

I'm sure we'd have passed on Matt Moore because he was a "flip of the coin as well."

 

 

I am curious, we could take a look. How many prospects who have performed well in the upper levels before the age of 20 and have ranked among the top 5(not even just top 2) have been "flip of the coin," impact players in recent years?

 

For some reason I don't believe you're done defending Profar because you've been saying the same thing every post. Look, nobody is saying Profar isn't a great prospect or that we don't want him. I think most people here would gladly take Profar in exchange for Greinke. I just think some people will always be wary of young, "unproven in the majors" prospects because there are always guys that don't succeed. As much as you think Profar is a slam dunk, you can't guarantee it. Sure there could be a 90%, 80%, etc. chance of him succeeding and there's no point in arguing what that percentage is. However, one thing is for sure and that is that he is not a 100% guarantee. I honestly don't even remember what you were trying to argue about anyway because like I said, most people here would probably do Profar for Greinke.

[Dollarbill13]

It's almost comical that prospects are viewed by some as bigger risks than veteran players who flame out at a similar rate with much larger monetary commitments at stake. I already posted the failure rates for prospects earlier in the SS thread, if you scroll down to the bottom of that link you'll find analysis by prospect ranking and while those rankings aren't absolute it's actually more like a 70% chance that Profar turns out to be as valuable as his talent would suggest. Melvin's success rate in FA is no where near 50% and we're splitting hairs about how good of a prospect Profar is?

 

Just so I'm clear about this, I assume that when you say 70%, you are referring to the 1-10 ranked position player "Success" rate of 62.7% (not looking at the "Superior" rate). Also assuming that you didn't factor in the Shortstop "Bust" rate at the bottom of 70%. I'm sure you could slice and dice the data a number of ways but I don't think it's unreasonable to think that 50/50 is that far off.

 

Something to think about: If you could trade Greinke for an imaginary prospect (say a shortstop) and you were 100% certain of what you were going to get out of him for six years. Would would be the lowest OPS that you'd be willing to settle for? .750 OPS? .800?

 

By the way, here's the BA top prospects lists going back to 1990.

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/rankings/top-100-prospects/all-time.html

[RockCoCougars]

Then I suppose there really is no difference in trading for Profar despite the spectacular #'s he's put up for his age

 

OK, you've drawn me back in. Please show me these spectacular numbers. To me, it's not surprising that he's put up good numbers for his age, the head start that he got on his career relative to most guys who don't sign until they're at least 18 Frankly, this guy should be more advanced than some 19 year old who signed out of high school late last summer.

 

Bottom line, I've never said that I don't think this guy is a prospect. I may even be interested in trading Greinke for a package including him, but I want to wait awhile first. All of this is moot anyway if he's this kind of talent, because no one is going to flip him for a rental. He could be the next Robin Yount or Jeter, or he could be the next Wil Cordero or Andujar Cedeno or worse. You will never convince me that he's a sure thing and that trading a Cy Young type guy for him straight up (or throwing something in) is a no brainer.

 

BTW: If you want to see extraordinary numbers from a teenage SS in the low/mid minors, check this out:

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=jeffer001gre

[monty57]

I know Profar is a top rated prospect and I would like to trade for him, but he does have a chance of failure.

 

I randomly went back five years (2007 Baseball America top prospect list) and the top of that list is Matsuzaka (like Darvish, not really a "prospect"), Alex Gordan, Delmon Young, Philip Hughes, Homer Bailey, Cameron Maybin... these are the top of the top. Now, further on down the list we find Evan Longoria, Justin Upton, Tim Lincecum, Chris Young, Andrew McCutchen, Jay Bruce, Troy Tulowitzki, Yo Gallardo, Carlos Gonzalez, Mike Pelfrey, Matt Garza, Clayton Kershaw (#24), Billy Butler, Ryan Braun (#26), Jose Tabata, Colby Rasmus, Jacoby Ellsbury, Nick Adenhart, Saltalamacchia, Hunter Pence, Joey Votto (#43) and many, many more, including Elvis Andrus at #65

 

First off wow, what a lot of talent in the minors at that time. But most of the top prospects have been worse than ones later down the list, including a Cy Young winner and two MVPs. I agree that Profar would be wonderful return for Greinke and there's a good chance that Texas wouldn't be willing to move him for fear of losing a future stud player. However, it's possible that Bubba Starling, Jarrod Parker and Mike Olt (this year's #24, 26 and 43) end up being the future Cy Young/MVP players and Profar becomes Cameron Maybin.

 

Also, maybe this is just a matter of symantics, but how can Profar be a "once in a generation" talent when he is #7 on the list and Harper, Moore and Strasberg are all labeled "once in a generation" talents? Shouldn't he just be classified a really talented young player who has a good chance of producing at a high level in the MLB?

 

If the situation was different and the Brewers had Profar, I would not want them to trade him. However, when you've got a good shot at the World Series, sometimes perspectives change. That's why we did trade Profar... I mean Lawrie... when we we "going for it." Top prospects get traded, and it's usually a team "going for it" that trades them to a team who is selling. From that 2007 list, Delmon Young way a Ray, Maybin was a Tiger, Andrew Miller was a Tiger, Carlos Gonzalez was a Diamondback, Andy LaRoche was a Dodger, Matt Garza was a Twin, Jose Tabata was a Yankee, Adam Jones was a Mariner, Colby Rasmus was a Cardinal, Saltalamacchia was a Brave, Pence was an Astro, Volstad was a Marlin, Josh Fields was a White Sox, Ian Stewart was a Rockie, Elvis Andrus was a Brave, and many more... and that was a top prospect list from only five years ago! Situations are different for each player, but it's not uncommon for top prospects to end up playing for a team other than the one who drafted them.

[HiAndTight]

For some reason I don't believe you're done defending Profar because you've been saying the same thing every post. Look, nobody is saying Profar isn't a great prospect or that we don't want him. I think most people here would gladly take Profar in exchange for Greinke. I just think some people will always be wary of young, "unproven in the majors" prospects because there are always guys that don't succeed. As much as you think Profar is a slam dunk, you can't guarantee it. Sure there could be a 90%, 80%, etc. chance of him succeeding and there's no point in arguing what that percentage is. However, one thing is for sure and that is that he is not a 100% guarantee. I honestly don't even remember what you were trying to argue about anyway because like I said, most people here would probably do Profar for Greinke.

 

 

 

Well...I guess all you'd have to do is go back and look at the start of the discussion as most people claimed I was underestimating Profar and that they'd want a B prospect in return. A B prospect. What was Thornburg ranked coming into the season? Wasn't he a "B," prospect?

 

There were also people who 'weren't impressed with Profar and tried to bring up trades when draft pick compensation was involved and took this in a whole other direction when it was totoally irrelevant. Also those who said that the lack of draft picks won't matter because he guarantees the Rangers didn't consider the comp picks that they'd get for Lee. It helps when you read the other posts if you're trying to get some insight into why I'm posting my posts.

 

I argued that if anything I'd be willing to throw in a guy like K-Rod into the equation as I don't think you'll get a whole lot for him in a trade.

[HiAndTight]

Also, maybe this is just a matter of symantics, but how can Profar be a "once in a generation" talent when he is #7 on the list and Harper, Moore and Strasberg are all labeled "once in a generation" talents? Shouldn't he just be classified a really talented young player who has a good chance of producing at a high level in the MLB?

 

 

Ok, it looks like the last poster is right. I will have to explain myself again.

 

 

Because not one person can name me a shortstop who projects to be a GG caliber defender who can hit for power, who projects to carry a .high .300's OBP(.380/.390) while hitting .300 as well as stealing bases.

 

I asked several times when was the last time a SS like that came up an I got Castro who does NOT draw walks and who is most certainly NOT a GG caliber defender at SS and has major questions about him being able to stay at SS.

 

And you're asking ME about why I think he is a once in a generation type player. Don't then attribute other players labels as once in a generation type player label to ME? I never said those guys were "once in a generation." I never said either way, though Harper is.

 

 

But does it make you feel better to know that he's now the #2 prospect in all the minors behind ONLY Dylan Bundy? And I'm sick of rattling off how impressive a debut he has to push Profar to #2, so if you don't know, look him up.

 

 

Still though, I've had several people call me out on that comment and yet have been unable to find one single player to compare him to in the last decade or so.

[HiAndTight]

Then I suppose there really is no difference in trading for Profar despite the spectacular #'s he's put up for his age

 

OK, you've drawn me back in. Please show me these spectacular numbers. To me, it's not surprising that he's put up good numbers for his age, the head start that he got on his career relative to most guys who don't sign until they're at least 18 Frankly, this guy should be more advanced than some 19 year old who signed out of high school late last summer.

 

Bottom line, I've never said that I don't think this guy is a prospect. I may even be interested in trading Greinke for a package including him, but I want to wait awhile first. All of this is moot anyway if he's this kind of talent, because no one is going to flip him for a rental. He could be the next Robin Yount or Jeter, or he could be the next Wil Cordero or Andujar Cedeno or worse. You will never convince me that he's a sure thing and that trading a Cy Young type guy for him straight up (or throwing something in) is a no brainer.

 

BTW: If you want to see extraordinary numbers from a teenage SS in the low/mid minors, check this out:

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=jeffer001gre

 

 

 

Congrats, it only took you how many days and 25 years to go back and find a player who played a DIFFERENT position and was STILL a two time all-star who didn't play the same position and wasn't nearly the defensive prospect Profar is.

 

 

Your excuses are getting tiresome. It's not as impressive he's dominating after just turning 19 years old because...well...he started playing baseball earlier. Really?

 

Bit of a stretch, don't ya think?

 

 

 

Either way, Rangers just signed Oswalt, so we likely won't find out just how totally ridiculous it is to expect Profar to be PART of a package for 4 months of Greinke.

 

 

It is worth noting on here though how when it's OUR players we value 6 premium years of cheap talent more than a short term rental, especially when we're out of it. Not only that, but you've used Cy Young in nearly everyone of YOUR posts.

 

Tell me which is more likely, Greinke wins another Cy Young, or Profar's the impact player he's projected to be? I'd say it's less than a "coin flip," Greinke wins another Cy Young.

 

 

Anyway, we'll have to wait 2 or so years to find out about Profar at which time you'll likely have no recollection of this conversation...

[RockCoCougars]

Then I suppose there really is no difference in trading for Profar despite the spectacular #'s he's put up for his age

 

OK, you've drawn me back in. Please show me these spectacular numbers. To me, it's not surprising that he's put up good numbers for his age, the head start that he got on his career relative to most guys who don't sign until they're at least 18 Frankly, this guy should be more advanced than some 19 year old who signed out of high school late last summer.

 

Bottom line, I've never said that I don't think this guy is a prospect. I may even be interested in trading Greinke for a package including him, but I want to wait awhile first. All of this is moot anyway if he's this kind of talent, because no one is going to flip him for a rental. He could be the next Robin Yount or Jeter, or he could be the next Wil Cordero or Andujar Cedeno or worse. You will never convince me that he's a sure thing and that trading a Cy Young type guy for him straight up (or throwing something in) is a no brainer.

 

BTW: If you want to see extraordinary numbers from a teenage SS in the low/mid minors, check this out:

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=jeffer001gre

 

 

 

Congrats, it only took you how many days and 25 years to go back and find a player who played a DIFFERENT position and was STILL a two time all-star who didn't play the same position and wasn't nearly the defensive prospect Profar is.

 

 

Your excuses are getting tiresome. It's not as impressive he's dominating after just turning 19 years old because...well...he started playing baseball earlier. Really?

 

Bit of a stretch, don't ya think?

 

 

 

Either way, Rangers just signed Oswalt, so we likely won't find out just how totally ridiculous it is to expect Profar to be PART of a package for 4 months of Greinke.

 

 

It is worth noting on here though how when it's OUR players we value 6 premium years of cheap talent more than a short term rental, especially when we're out of it. Not only that, but you've used Cy Young in nearly everyone of YOUR posts.

 

Tell me which is more likely, Greinke wins another Cy Young, or Profar's the impact player he's projected to be? I'd say it's less than a "coin flip," Greinke wins another Cy Young.

 

 

Anyway, we'll have to wait 2 or so years to find out about Profar at which time you'll likely have no recollection of this conversation...

 

I have a long memory. I have no problem admitting I'm wrong or second guessing when I was right. Probably a coin flip..

 

It didn't take me two days to think of Jeffries. He is one of the first guys that come to mind when I hear about over-hyped prospects. Baseball America definitely had some man love for him in the early days, and he was every bit the prospect that Trout, Harper, et al are today. He turned out to be an OK player. BTW he was a shortstop when he was Profar's age.

 

As for a recent comparison to Profar, look no further than Andrus to start. To find comparisons with this age/experience match, you are pretty much limited to guys from Latin America, so you don't have too many to draw from.