The Combined 'We're Trading Greinke' Thread (part 1)

[HiAndTight]

It's 2012 and Profar is excelling in AA. He could easily be in AAA by the All star break, start next year in AA and be up next season.

 

To be fair the last time I looked at his stats he wasn't hitting as well as he is now. He's been hitting .325 over the last 10 games.

 

Yes he could be in AAA by the all star break, but he could hit .240 when he gets there. That's the thing with prospects. You never know. Greinke is a former Cy Young award winner with a sub 3 era and a 22-7 record in his last 29 decisions. Let's not sell him short. The main thing that would hold Texas back from trading Greinke for Profar is the fact that Greinke is going to be a free agent. If Greinke had 3 years left on his contract I doubt anyone here would consider trading him for Profar.....I know I wouldn't. So it's not a matter of Greinke not being a good enough player to acquire Profar. It's a matter of whether or not they want to trade for a player who only has half a season left on his contract. If they feel they can resign him and/or are desperate enough for an ace (which teams usually are around the trade deadline), they may just do that. As of now Texas already has a shortstop who is hitting .309 and is signed for 2 more years. Sure they could move one of them to second base but that would probably minimize their value some.

So yes, Profar is a good player but so is Greinke. Let's not sell him short and talk about trading him for a mid ceiling prospect. If we trade him I expect at least a pitcher with #1 or #2 potential or a position player who has all star potential. Definitely quality over quantity.

 

 

 

Sorry for all the posts in a row. But...you just HAVE to tell me....how in the world is Profar a "mid ceiling prospect," when he's dominating AA at age 19 and dominated HiA at age 18, already looks like a potential GG SS and everything else I've already said.

 

I just can't fathom calling him a mid-ceiling prospect as he's the complete, 100 pct antithesis of such a player. His ceiling is perennial All Star and GG Shortstop who could hit leadoff for us and get on base at a .380+ clib while batting from both sides.

 

And with his frame he still has a ton of room for projection, so he could still just as easily turn into a guy who hits for power.

 

 

 

 

 

So again, apologies for the multiple posts, but I have to know...just what are you expecting for Greinke, a guy that the team we trade him to will get nothing for him after the season ends with the new compensation rules? I thought Profar was kinda a pie in the sky dream and I thought if you added on a K-rod and 5 million MAYBE the Rangers would do it just because of how it gives the best team in baseball one of the best pitchers in baseball.

 

It seems to me as though you're looking for a....I don't know, Trout...Bundy, Gerrit Cole type pitching prospect in return.

 

So who would YOU want in return?

[miggs721]

Ill take Andrelton Simmons, but that would never happen

[monty57]

Both are better traded next off-season I believe.

 

Aram-If we trade him, we're going to eat 10 million dollars I believe. If he has the season he SHOULD have, .280/.350/.500-ish, then a team you would think would be willing to pay him 2 years and 20 million.

 

I BELIEVE we'll owe him 2 years and 15 million(someone correct me on that if I'm wrong, I didn't look, I just thought he was only getting 6 million this year).

 

While I agree that Ramirez and Weeks would both be better to shop this offseason, I think Melvin signed Ramirez to a virtually untradeable contract. In an effort to fit him onto this year's team which went way over budget when K-Rod accepted arby, they signed a back-end-loaded deal which only pays him $6MM this year, but escalates to $10MM next year and $16MM in two years when he will be (I believe) 35 years old. Then there's a $4MM buyout in 2015, so he'll be owed 2 years / $30MM after this year, and even if he puts up great numbers the rest of the season I doubt anyone touches that without us pitching in a lot of money.

 

I do agree on the Profar comments. To me he and Machado are kind of the "ultimate targets" who we may realisticly be able to trade for this offseason. I don't know if either one could be had in trade, but if they can it would make the future much brighter.

 

Ill take Andrelton Simmons, but that would never happen

 

I would think that the Braves would be willing to trade Simmons, but I don't know that they'd be looking for pitching (although Greinke is an upgrade for any team in baseball). I would think Hart would be a good guy to shop to Atlanta; possibly for Simmons or Pastronicky, but more likely for one of their young pitchers. They don't have spots for all of their MLB-ready pitchers, and next year we are going to have a lot of SP spots open.

[reillymcshane]

If this team is out of it and we decide to deal Greinke, they could also consider contract dumps. A-Ram, even Weeks - if you're looking to completely rebuild and want to move long term committments.

 

I'd hate to see that, but it's a possibility if the team feels we won't contend for a few years.

I should have noted that I meant we could consider making a package deal to get rid of a bad contract or two.

[monty57]

This was brought up in a thread on the major league side, but trading Greinke doesn't exclude us from making a run for him in free agency. I don't think we'll be able to match other teams' offers, but if we can, it would be nice to trade him for a top prospect(s) and then re-sign him this offseason. If one of his big concerns is whether we'd be competitive in the future... well, we'd be more competitive if we had Profar or Machado at SS for Greinke's entire "second tour" with the Brewers.

 

Extra bonus: With the new CBA, we wouldn't lose any draft picks when we re-signed him!!

[HiAndTight]

While I agree that Ramirez and Weeks would both be better to shop this offseason, I think Melvin signed Ramirez to a virtually untradeable contract. In an effort to fit him onto this year's team which went way over budget when K-Rod accepted arby, they signed a back-end-loaded deal which only pays him $6MM this year, but escalates to $10MM next year and $16MM in two years when he will be (I believe) 35 years old. Then there's a $4MM buyout in 2015, so he'll be owed 2 years / $30MM after this year, and even if he puts up great numbers the rest of the season I doubt anyone touches that without us pitching in a lot of money.

 

Yeah, I agree. That's what I was trying to say when I said I believe he's only getting paid 6 million dollars this year. I mis-spoke when I said he was owed 2/15, I meant I thought he was going to be owed 30 million over the next 2 years at 15 million a piece. I didn't know the exact breakdown with the 4 million dollar option buyout, but in the end it's the same.

 

So my point, which I made poorly was, if he has the type of season I suggested, then I think a team would look at him as a player worth 2 years and 20 million. Hence the 10 million I suggested we'd kick in to move him. I'd be happy as heck to get that deal done.

 

Thanks for clearing up the particulars and I can see how my post didn't across clearly with the 2/15 when I meant 15 over the next two years(2/30). So I agree, 10 million I think is at least what we're going to have to eat in order to move him. And that's IF he has a good year at the end of the day.

 

If he regresses to the .265/.330/.475 range with 20 HR's and 75 RBI's, teams won't go over 2 years and 16 million. Either way, I know you're paying a lot of money for a player who isn't here, but I'd rather look at it as saving money for a player who wouldn't be doing anything for us if we're not a contender. What good is it to keep him, even if he puts up good numbers at such a ridiculous contract?

 

 

Another question that we can only speculate about, but to me is directly related to how long Doug Melvin SHOULD be in the employ of the Milwaukee Brewers, but who's idea was the Aram signing? Taylor Green hasn't been what I expected. I honestly expected a poor mans Mark Loretta type who could handle 3rd, 2nd and 1st, hit .265/.345/.450 for a rookie with 12-15 HR's, but he hasn't impressed. Of course it's early. But to me signing Aram over turning the reigns over to Green wasn't worth the 30 million we're going to be paying Aram the next two years.

 

Did Mark A push for a big signing or did Melvin think this move was a good one? And there's very little hindsight here. We all knew it at the time. This was only a good signing if they could sign Greinke and even then "good," only in the sense that it gives you a presence in the middle of the order to keep you competitive. But without Greinke, he's just a bloated aging contract on a non-contender.

 

I do agree on the Profar comments. To me he and Machado are kind of the "ultimate targets" who we may realisticly be able to trade for this offseason. I don't know if either one could be had in trade, but if they can it would make the future much brighter.

 

Yeah, I just did a double take when it was stated that Paul I believe it was, didn't like the Profar trade to the Rangers for Greinke and possibly throwing someone else in and then going on to say he doesn't want a guy with a low ceiling and that he wants quality over quantity. Profar is the EPITOME of quality over quantity.

 

I'll go a step further. I'll trade them Axford AND Greinke to get Profar back(with them throwing us a LoA arm with some long term potential upside). Profar has the look of a superstar leadoff hitter at the next level. And again, I actually prefer him to Machado.

It just makes all the sense in the world. If not the Brewers, the Rangers are the ideal landing spot for Greinke.

 

I would think that the Braves would be willing to trade Simmons, but I don't know that they'd be looking for pitching (although Greinke is an upgrade for any team in baseball). I would think Hart would be a good guy to shop to Atlanta; possibly for Simmons or Pastronicky, but more likely for one of their young pitchers. They don't have spots for all of their MLB-ready pitchers, and next year we are going to have a lot of SP spots open.

 

 

I've been on board with trading Hart for years now. And the only way I'd keep him is if I wasn't still so high on Gamel and still confident he is going to be a productive major league player. Call me crazy, but I believe he can be a 4.5 WAR player for us over the next 4-5 years. So if I didn't like Gamel, I'd be trying to hold onto Hart to play 1st base for us as I think he now stays at 1st for the remainder of the year as it's just too logical to keep him there and getting Aoki into the lineup.

 

 

As for who we should trade Hart for if we do, the list of Braves young arms is too long and this post is already a novel. I agree, you could take your pick of about 5-6 and I'd be alright with it.

[TheCrew07]

But really though, they would just need to get back a player (preferably more) that projects to be a long term answer at any position except for LF and C. Those are the only spots with contracts past 2014, and if the guy they get back for Greinke is as good as we hope...they'll find a spot for his bat when the time comes. But get a top 50ish hitter with some lower minor/high upside pitchers.

 

The Tigers 3B prospect Nick Castellanos seems to fit this description. Obviously not a sure thing, but has a potentially high upside. He is off to a great start in High A this year and could be ready for the MLB level by the tail end of the Ramirez contract.

 

This is an excellent suggestion as the Tigers have a history of moving prospects for big name players. I'm not sure they'd want to give up that much for Greinke, but I like where where you are going.

[paul253]

Ok, and you think that with the picks you're going to get from the Rangers, you're picks are going to even approach the type of prospect that Profar is?

I'm not saying that. I'm just saying that I don't want to give him away for a mid ceiling prospect because at the very least we'll get two draft picks in return. I didn't call Profar a mid ceiling prospect.

Seriously, you're not getting ANYTHING for K-rod after the season. In season you might get a B-/C+ prospect. He's not dominating any longer. If you don't trade him, he's gone for nothing.

You're basing this off of a quarter of a season. By that reasoning I could say that John Axford is no longer dominating. Teams have a tendency to overpay for pitching at the deadline. If K-Rod can start pitching like he usually does he may fetch a decent return. Don't base his trade value off of what we paid for him. The Mets were pretty desperate to get rid of him. No we're not going to get a #1 pitching prospect back in return. But that doesn't mean we won't necessarily be able to get someone who profiles as an everyday player. Right now someone who profiles as an every day player would be a pretty nice addition to our system.

 

Greinke will get you a pick around 28 and very possibly 30, and then a supplemental pick.

 

I'm sorry but how could you possibly know this? You are literally suggesting that he will only sign with one of the three best teams in baseball. We could end up with the 11th pick or the 16th pick just as easily as we could end up with the 30th pick. Boston may go after him. NY. LAA. Texas. Detroit. Washington. Miami. It's way too soon to proclaim that he'll end up with the best team in baseball, thus getting us the 30th pick.

 

 

Sorry for all the posts in a row. But...you just HAVE to tell me....how in the world is Profar a "mid ceiling prospect," when he's dominating AA at age 19 and dominated HiA at age 18, already looks like a potential GG SS and everything else I've

already said.

 

Yeah, I just did a double take when it was stated that Paul I believe it was, didn't like the Profar trade to the Rangers for Greinke and possibly throwing someone else in and then going on to say he doesn't want a guy with a low ceiling and that he wants quality over quantity. Profar is the EPITOME of quality over quantity.

That's not at all what I said. I said you need to aim for high ceiling prospects LIKE Profar and not settle for mid ceiling prospects by trading Greinke just for the sake of trading him. That's where the whole draft pick compensation thing comes in. Don't trade him for mid ceiling prospects when you may just as easily get two mid to high ceiling prospects back in the draft. Profar is exactly the type of player you aim for. But that doesn't mean you give away the farm for him. I mean....what is too much? You say you'd give them Greinke and Axford. Would you throw in Hart too? Weeks? Would you trade all of our trading chips for one prospect?

 

I just think that you are either seriously underestimating Greinke or seriously overestimating Profar. You talk about him like he is the second coming of Mickey Mantle. And don't get me wrong, I'd LOVE Profar in a Milwaukee uniform. But with how many holes we have and how little depth, it's possible that three or four everyday players may be a better return than one all star caliber player.

 

Maybe I'd consider the Greinke and KRod deal, but trading both Greinke AND Axford for him? I'd rather take my chances with what I could get for each other individually then trading two all star caliber players, one of who is under control for a few more years, for one prospect.

[HiAndTight]

I'm sorry but how could you possibly know this? You are literally suggesting that he will only sign with one of the three best teams in baseball. We could end up with the 11th pick or the 16th pick just as easily as we could end up with the 30th pick. Boston may go after him. NY. LAA. Texas. Detroit. Washington. Miami. It's way too soon to proclaim that he'll end up with the best team in baseball, thus getting us the 30th pick.

 

No, you could not end up with the 11th pick. You can only end up with a pick in the 2nd half of the first round. Ie, the top 15 teams in the standings. You COULD also end up getting a supplemental 1st round pick for him, and a 2nd rounder.....

 

I can't even begin to articulate how much more valuable Profar would be to the Brewers than that. You're talking about a potential superstar SS.

 

And the reason I suggested 28th was simply going off last year, and because the teams that end up signing the big name Free Agents, TEND to be the teams that have the most money and finish higher in the standings. But you're right. We could end up with a pick from 16-30 and a supplemental 1st round pick.

 

I don't know how you even begin to compare that to a guy like Profar.

 

I'm not saying that. I'm just saying that I don't want to give him away for a mid ceiling prospect because at the very least we'll get two draft picks in return. I didn't call Profar a mid ceiling prospect.

 

You didn't specifically SAY that...however you said that when we were talking about Profar...so it's kinda hard not to jump to that conclusion. When one person is talking about trading for the two guys with probably the highest ceilings in the minor league system(Machado and Profar) at the position we have the biggest need for and you say, "I don't want to trade for mid ceiling guys," what are we to think? Setting aside the fact that obviously nobody's suggesting we trade Greinke for a mid level or a mid ceiling prospect.

You're basing this off of a quarter of a season. By that reasoning I could say that John Axford is no longer dominating. Teams have a tendency to overpay for pitching at the deadline. If K-Rod can start pitching like he usually does he may fetch a decent return. Don't base his trade value off of what we paid for him. The Mets were pretty desperate to get rid of him. No we're not going to get a #1 pitching prospect back in return. But that doesn't mean we won't necessarily be able to get someone who profiles as an everyday player. Right now someone who profiles as an every day player would be a pretty nice addition to our system.

 

Axford's striking out 15.3 per 9 innings and still hitting 97.

K-Rod is striking out 8.4. The price to "throw him in," with Greinke, if that's what it took to get Profar would be a deal I think the Brewers would be absolutely thrilled with and a trade that just about every scout, expert, anyone would say is a huge win for the Brewers.

 

I mean, YOU'RE THE ONE talking about "quality over quantity," yet you're willing to trade K-Rod for a mid level prospect rather than throw him into a trade for probably the best possible prospect in the minor leagues for the Milwaukee Brewers right now, and someone who's probably not even realistic to acquire...and you're arguing against it. I'm still trying to figure out why.

 

Finally, I'm searching for where I said last years trade of K-Rod had anything whatsoever to do with his trade value this season.

That's not at all what I said. I said you need to aim for high ceiling prospects LIKE Profar and not settle for mid ceiling prospects by trading Greinke just for the sake of trading him. That's where the whole draft pick compensation thing comes in. Don't trade him for mid ceiling prospects when you may just as easily get two mid to high ceiling prospects back in the draft. Profar is exactly the type of player you aim for. But that doesn't mean you give away the farm for him. I mean....what is too much? You say you'd give them Greinke and Axford. Would you throw in Hart too? Weeks? Would you trade all of our trading chips for one prospect?

 

 

I'm just at a loss as to how you're jumping from what I actually said to what was said.

 

First of all, you're changing your initial argument now. You specifically said in the discussion for Profar while arguing against the suggestion of trading Greinke AND K-Rod to get him that you want high ceiling players. If you were suggesting that Profar IS the type of prospect you want, I didn't really understand how you articulated that.

 

I just think that you are either seriously underestimating Greinke or seriously overestimating Profar. You talk about him like he is the second coming of Mickey Mantle. And don't get me wrong, I'd LOVE Profar in a Milwaukee uniform. But with how many holes we have and how little depth, it's possible that three or four everyday players may be a better return than one all star caliber player.

 

 

Again, I don't even know how to respond to this. Almost half my posts on this board have been about how important I think Greinke is, how I think signing him is the most important signing or move the Brewers will have made since they trade for Fingers/Simmons/Vook and most likely the most important signing of anyone they'll sign in the next decade most likely.

So my underestimating Greinke is just utterly ridiculous.

 

And the Mantle comment...I don't even know where to begin. I think the problem lies with you initially arguing against trading for him. The Mantle comment is so ridiculous I don't think it even warrants a response. I've explained what he is and what scouts view his ceiling and all it takes is a cursory glance to see how well he's playing at such an extraordinarily young age for the level he's playing in. A 18 year old who hits over .300/.390 at HiA and is again dominating as a 19 year old at AA speaks for itself. It doesn't need any ridiculous hyperbole like bringing up Mickey Mantle.

 

Not to mention, you LITERALLY said that you'd rather get QUALITY over QUANTITY. How is "3-4 everyday prospects," better than arguably the top prospect in all the minors who dominating AA right now at 19 years old and looks like a GG Shortstop.

 

You're completely 100 pct contradicting what you've previously said on this topic. I mean, that was the quickest 180 I've ever seen.

Maybe I'd consider the Greinke and KRod deal, but trading both Greinke AND Axford for him? I'd rather take my chances with what I could get for each other individually then trading two all star caliber players, one of who is under control for a few more years, for one prospect.

 

You clearly didn't read my post very clearly, but lets start here.

 

1st of all, as great as Greinke is, and I think if he were to re-sign, he could easily end up being the best pitcher the Brewers have ever had, his value for a team that presumably would be out of it and the ensuing comp picks doesn't even APPROACH the value of a elite Shortstop prospect like Profar.

 

2nd, if you read a little closer, I said Profar, AND a power arm from LowA ball. So not only is it NOT for one player, but it'd be for two players, one of which would be a SS with Gold Glove potential who's extremely young for his age, yet still dominating. That's a LOT more valuable to a rebuilding team than a closer.

 

 

I think you did a little more reading on Profar after the comment about not wanting low ceiling prospects as Profar is about as far away from a low ceiling prospect as you can possibly get in the minors right now.

 

That, your misunderstanding of draft compensation(ie, we can't get the #11 pick) and K-Rod's value as a throw in for the Rangers who'd be trading a potential superstar for half a season of Greinke, not to mention your complete 180 on wanting quality over quantity(your comment about all the sudden preferring 3-4 everyday players vs one superstar directly contradicts that, as does your suggestion for what we could get for K-Rod). And there IS a reason we got K-Rod so cheap last year. The Mets had 28 other teams to trade him to, yet gave him away to us. So it was a lot more than the Mets just wanting to trade him.

 

Teams aren't giving up good pitching prospects for half a year of a SU man.

[HiAndTight]

Anyway, bottom line, I doubt the Rangers would even be willing to give up a guy like Profar for Greinke and K-Rod(taking on about 10 million at least) and may well not even be willing to give up Profar and a projectable lower level arm for Greinke and Axford anyway, so this discussion is probably moot.

 

I just think it's crazy to expect MORE out of Greinke and K-rod than Profar or Machado(I put more emphasis on Profar as he's a much better defender and certain to stick at SS and a much more likely trading partner, but they're about equal value options at this point).

[Raw Biz]

I'm sorry but how could you possibly know this? You are literally suggesting that he will only sign with one of the three best teams in baseball. We could end up with the 11th pick or the 16th pick just as easily as we could end up with the 30th pick. Boston may go after him. NY. LAA. Texas. Detroit. Washington. Miami. It's way too soon to proclaim that he'll end up with the best team in baseball, thus getting us the 30th pick.

 

No, you could not end up with the 11th pick. You can only end up with a pick in the 2nd half of the first round. Ie, the top 15 teams in the standings. You COULD also end up getting a supplemental 1st round pick for him, and a 2nd rounder.....

 

Nope, you could end up with the 11th pick. You should check the facts before making definitive statements. While the top 15 picks were protected in the past, its been discussed numerous times on this board that the new collective bargaining agreement only protects the first 10 picks. So yes they could end up with anything from 11 on.

 

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2012/05/qualifying-offers-for-free-agents.html

[paul253]

No, you could not end up with the 11th pick. You can only end up with a pick in the 2nd half of the first round. Ie, the top 15 teams in the standings. You COULD also end up getting a supplemental 1st round pick for him, and a 2nd rounder.....

 

Correct me if I'm wrong but I thought the new CBA changed the protected picks from lowest 15 teams keeping their first round pick to the lowest 10 teams. If I got that wrong I'm sorry.

 

I don't want to respond to every one of your points because they are all essentially the same. Looking back at my post I can see how you thought I called Profar a mid ceiling prospect. I apologize for that too but it wasn't what I meant. All I was getting at was that we should trade Greinke just for the sake of trading him.

I just think it's crazy to expect MORE out of Greinke and K-rod than Profar or Machado

 

I said this earlier and I will say it again. The ONLY thing, in my opinion at least, that would prevent the Rangers from taking Greinke for Profar is his contract. If Greinke was signed for 2 or 3 more years I wouldn't even consider that trade. You don't trade a legitimate ace for a prospect. So again, if the Rangers feel they need pitching to help them make a run at the World Series I don't think it's completely out of line to think they'd trade Profar, especially if they think they can resign him. Greinke might be the best starter on the trade market and they already have a very good shortstop who is under control for 2 more years.

 

Again, I don't even know how to respond to this. Almost half my posts on this board have been about how important I think Greinke is, how I think signing him is the most important signing or move the Brewers will have made since they trade for Fingers/Simmons/Vook and most likely the most important signing of anyone they'll sign in the next decade most likely.

So my underestimating Greinke is just utterly ridiculous.

 

You're comparing his value to the team to his trade value. You may think resigning him is essential but you can still underestimate his trade value. If you are willing to add more players to a trade in order to acquire a prospect then you might be underestimating his trade value. If you are saying that Texas may still be unwilling to trade Profar for Greinke AND Axford, I think maybe you are underestimating some trade values there. Maybe I'm wrong. Who knows. It's just my opinion. Please don't jump on me for having an opinion.

 

So as opposed to trading away both players for one prospect I'd rather take my chances with trading them separately. Someone mentioned Nick Castellanos earlier. That would be a great haul as well. He's hitting over .400 in A+ right now. . If the Yankees needed him maybe you could get a Manny Buenelos plus someone else. That'd be a pretty decent haul too. Like I said, I just don't want to trade away all of our best trading chips for one prospect. And considering Greinke is one of the best pitchers in baseball right now I don't see how suggesting we don't include MORE in a trade with him is an unreasonable stance.

[HiAndTight]

Well if the updated top 25 prospect rankings are to be believed, you won't have to worry about trading for Profar as it's unrealistic anyway. Like you, I'm not going to go back over all your points, I'll just say again, you're the one who said you wanted quality over quantity and then said you'd rather trade for lesser prospects so you could get 3-4 prospects back.

 

From Keith Law where he has Profar ranked as the #2 overall prospect behind Bundy(which surprised me as I thought he'd keep Machado there, but which I also agree with. Bundy is obviously so far ahead of anyone currently in the minors though, #2 is incredibly impressive.

 

It's hard to rank a guy much lower than this when he has front-line tools and has failed to reach base in just two games this year, the last one on April 7. His combination of OBP, speed and defense will push Elvis Andrus out of the way -- talk of moving Profar to accommodate Andrus underestimates just how good Profar is going to be.

 

 

And I'm not underestimating Greinke's value or his trade value. He could be the difference for a number of teams in a World Series win. I think you're overestimating K-Rod who, when speaking in terms of prospects like Profar DOES become reduced to a "throw in," IMO.

 

 

Again, a speedy GG caliber SS who gets on base at an incredibly impressive clip and projects to be a potential .400 OBP guy in the big leagues. IF HE actually does that, he'd be the most valuable player on our team.

 

 

 

 

Edit-Apologies for the comment on the top 11 pick. You are right on that. But they could also end up with a 2nd round pick. EITHER way, I don't think the value of whatever picks you're going to get for Greinke+whatever you may get for K-Rod while having to eat some of his contract is going to be equal to the value of Profar.

 

I also apologize if you're taking my argument the wrong way. You're certainly entitled to your opinion...I'm not trying to be over the top here which I may have been. I just feel pretty adamant that as GREAT as Greinke is, and again, I was one of the few who didn't love the Sabathia trade as I felt we could have gotten Greinke for less and had a much bigger window to compete at the time(still feel that way, though the big guy was amazing...but for just 19 starts). Greinke to me is Greg Maddux with better velocity when he's on. He's absolutely amazing to watch. True baseball fans love watching a pitcher like Greinke carving up hitters by hitting the corners and then breaking off one of those NASTY sliders in a 1-0 game vs a Roy Halladay type pitcher more than any other type of game.

 

So I feel like I'm not underestimating Greinke. Again, he's just incredible to watch and I would rather risk it and spend 140 to sign him for 6 years than even trade for Profar and get him for 6 years cheap. BUT if we have to trade him...I guess I think Profar is the "next guy," in line behind the big three in Bryce Harper, Trout and Lawrie of young guys who is going to be a superstar position player. A core player that you could pair with Braun and know you have two legit superstars year in and year out.

 

If I've come off as a (fill in the blank) I apologize. I also haven't argued AGAINST Castellanos, but the ironic part is that you think I'm underestimating Greinke's value, I don't think Ccastellanos is good enough for Zach. And I don't think the Yankees will consider him with his history at Yankee stadium. Right or wrong, the times they've seen him, he's been awful. I think they'll go after Hamels most likely.

[HiAndTight]

Anyway, if the Rangers are of the same belief that Law seems to be...and putting aside any opinions of Law, I find it hard to argue with his assessment, the next question is, would you be willing to trade Greinke for Andrus?

 

I don't really have an answer for that one. He'd be entering his arbitration years, he'd have only 3 years left after this year, and after dreaming of having a SS who could win a GG and be a .400 OBP leadoff hitter, Andrus numbers look a little disappointing, but he's clearly one of the better SS's in the game and is just 23 years old.

 

Of course the Rangers would have to feel comfortable with Profar at the big league level and trading away your starting SS after losing the last two WS's and being arguably the best team in baseball is...pretty unlikely, even with a great young prospect.

[RockCoCougars]

Anyway, if the Rangers are of the same belief that Law seems to be...and putting aside any opinions of Law, I find it hard to argue with his assessment, the next question is, would you be willing to trade Greinke for Andrus?

 

Absolutely not. I'm pretty much falling in the line of thinking that you try to resign him or let him walk for the picks unless you get a king's ransom. I'll go with the old 'bird in the hand' saying here, because Greinke is legit and it's highly unlikely that you will trade him and get back a player that turns out to even sniff his production. I sure hope that the Brewers don't settle and take the best offer for him like they did with Carlos Lee, Greg Vaughn and numerous smaller Dean Taylor deals.... Bottom line, there is no rule that you have to trade free agents to be once you fall out of the race. Greinke is easily in the top dozen or so MLB pitchers in my view, so if a team wants him for their run they need to pay dearly. If you are blown away with a deal, go for it, otherwise pass.

[paul253]

I don't think the value of whatever picks you're going to get for Greinke+whatever you may get for K-Rod while having to eat some of his contract is going to be equal to the value of Profar.

 

Which again, is essentially what you started off arguing. You wanted a superstar over quantity.

 

That's not what I started off arguing. I started off arguing, or at least what I was getting at, was that you don't settle for players in return for Greinke like you might for Marcum or KRod because at the very least you'd get picks for Greinke...unlike Marcum and K-Rod. I've never argued that the value of the picks is equal to or greater than the value of the player(s) you could get in a trade. If I did argue that then I wouldn't think it would make sense to trade Greinke. My actual opinion is the opposite. My actual opinion is that the Brewers would be dumb not to trade Greinke if they are out of it.

 

I also argued that you aim high for Greinke. I brought up Profar's name in another thread so he is definitely a guy I had in mind.

 

The major disagreement you and I have is not how good Profar is, it is what you might be able to get for Greinke.

the next question is, would you be willing to trade Greinke for Andrus?

 

Unless the Rangers feel Profar is ready now I don't see this as being a real possibility. They aren't going to trade their starting shortstop in the middle of a pennant race just because they have someone who will be ready the next year. But assuming they would do it, I'd say no. Andrus is good but you need young cheap players, not guys that are going to be gone in 2 years.

[HiAndTight]

I don't think the value of whatever picks you're going to get for Greinke+whatever you may get for K-Rod while having to eat some of his contract is going to be equal to the value of Profar.

 

Which again, is essentially what you started off arguing. You wanted a superstar over quantity.

 

That's not what I started off arguing. I started off arguing, or at least what I was getting at, was that you don't settle for players in return for Greinke like you might for Marcum or KRod because at the very least you'd get picks for Greinke...unlike Marcum and K-Rod. I've never argued that the value of the picks is equal to or greater than the value of the player(s) you could get in a trade. If I did argue that then I wouldn't think it would make sense to trade Greinke. My actual opinion is the opposite. My actual opinion is that the Brewers would be dumb not to trade Greinke if they are out of it.

 

I also argued that you aim high for Greinke. I brought up Profar's name in another thread so he is definitely a guy I had in mind.

 

The major disagreement you and I have is not how good Profar is, it is what you might be able to get for Greinke.

the next question is, would you be willing to trade Greinke for Andrus?

 

Unless the Rangers feel Profar is ready now I don't see this as being a real possibility. They aren't going to trade their starting shortstop in the middle of a pennant race just because they have someone who will be ready the next year. But assuming they would do it, I'd say no. Andrus is good but you need young cheap players, not guys that are going to be gone in 2 years.

 

Well, I don't see how that applies to me as I never argued, nor do I think anyone on this entire board suggested that Greinke's trade value should be compared in any way, shape or form to that of Marcum or K-Rod. I don't recall you making that point, but it's one that's pretty much assumed. And when you say you aim high for Greinke, you can't REALLY aim higher than Profar. Again, he's pretty much the consensus #2 rated prospect in baseball behind Bundy who had given up 5 hits, 2 BB's with 40 K's in 30 IP for a 0.00 ERA and a .223 WHIP as a 19 year old kid.

 

I guess the more we talk about it, I'm that much more confused. If we're on the same page about Greinke for Profar, then your real argument is K-Rod's value is what I'm underrating because I suggested that if the Rangers needed something to sweeten the deal we could add K-Rod and pay some of his salary for Profar, OR if we had to, make it Greinke and Axford for Profar and a power arm from A ball from the Rangers. A young prospect who's ranked low, but has upside. Perhaps a Brooks Hall type prospect. As great as Greinke is, we are talking about 4 months of him in return for the top position prospect in the game. I don't see how I am undervaluing Greinke or overvaluing Profar.

 

Maybe I'm undervaluing Axford. Frankly, I'm looking at him and saying, if we could get a guy like Profar, with the total rebuilding project underway, is it worth it to trade Axford to get Profar, and a Brooks Hall type prospect.

 

I think Axford's value is at it's height. He's striking out 15.3 per 9, had a run of 50 straight saves, but how important is a closer to a 70 win team? And bottom line...I just think Profar is so good that half a year of Greinke(who again, I still think with him the next half decade we're a WS contender year in and year out) and EVEN Axford is well worth it.

 

Lets look at it this way. Profar projects to be a better player than Starlin Castro. Where Castro might not stay at SS and probably won't be a very good defender over there, Profar looks to be a Gold Glove caliber SS.

Where Castro is a hacker(not in a bad way when you hit well over .300) Profar projects to hit .300, but also carry an OBP near .400.

 

Now if you could get a Shortstop BETTER than Starlin Castro who could leadoff with a .400 OBP, GG defender..etc..etc...how far do you think that would go with Gallardo, Braun, Lucroy, Gamel, Green, Weeks and a farm system just chalk full of pitching prospects. Now is giving up Axford to get a player like that AND a young projectable though not highly rated arm in return? I had previously suggested Martin Perez, but as valuable as Profar is, I don't think that's likely.

 

 

I guess we'll have to agree to disagree. But I'll ask this, would YOU be alright with Perez+Profar for Axford+Greinke? Which again I think is all moot because the Rangers aren't likely to trade him after his early performance in AA ball.

 

One more question, do you have Axford pegged as a guy that you want to keep in our little rebuilding process, or a player that we should be looking to trade(*this of course is all under the premise we do decide to sell and rebuild)? Or are you just more comfortable trading Greinke for a guy like Castenallos and Axford for another prospect?

 

 

I'll be honest, I'd be willing to trade away any two big leaguers on our roster right now save for Lucroy, Braun and Gallardo for Profar and a young arm. Hart, Marcum....you wanted quality over quantity, I think Profar is the epitome of that. I'll take two superstars and work to build around them than the 3-4 everyday players you cited in a recent post. The Indians got 3-4 prospects for Sabathia. I'm guessing they'd have rather gotten one "can't miss," superstar prospect than 3-4, and while nobody truly is can't miss, Profar is about as close to it as you can get in all the minors right now. Bundy could get hurt, Machado hasn't really put up the big numbers yet....

 

And on top of that, I believe when next years prospect rankings come out, if we had a guy like Profar, the Brewers farm system would rank as one of the top 5-6 in all of baseball. We'd likely have the #1 or #2 prospect at SS, I think Thornburg cracks the top 25, Nelson, Peralta, Bradley and Jungman would all be in the top 100 as well. That's without anyone else we'd acquire via trade, and without the 3 picks we have in the upcoming draft. AND I think we're going to see some BIG numbers put up by our rookie league teams as we bring some of our Dominican players stateside.

 

And imagine if a guy like Gallo did fall to us as many mocks have? A future IF of Gamel at 1st, Weeks/Gennett at 2nd, Profar at 3rd and Gallo at 3rd with Lucroy behind the dish is a pretty nice looking IF.

 

 

 

 

Edit- In any event, I enjoy the debate regardless of the disagreements. That's kinda the whole point of these boards to me. To have these back and forths and either convince someone to see it your way, or agree to disagree and wait and see what happens.

[paul253]

Maybe I'm undervaluing Axford. Frankly, I'm looking at him and saying, if we could get a guy like Profar, with the total rebuilding project underway, is it worth it to trade Axford to get Profar, and a Brooks Hall type prospect.

 

This I wouldn't do. I like Hall's potential but my opinion is that for Axford and Greinke you could do better trading them separately.

But I'll ask this, would YOU be alright with Perez+Profar for Axford+Greinke? Which again I think is all moot because the Rangers aren't likely to trade him after his early performance in AA ball.

 

As for the question would I trade Axford and Greinke for Perex and Profar? I don't know actually. I know Perez is regarded highly but his numbers don't really seem to back up his ranking. I'm not sure about his health either. If I had to answer now I'd probably say yes but I'd explore other opportunities as well.

 

This is what I'm talking about. If you can't get Profar for Greinke straight up or Greinke + a mid ceiling prospect (Hall/Burgos/Rivera) then I'd look elsewhere. Greinke for Castellanos + another prospect is something I'd like. Then for Axford I'd look elsewhere too. One of the best young closers in baseball who is cheap and under control for another few years should get you a lot. Let's say NYY is looking for a closer. I'd ask for Banuelos back. Or if Atlanta is looking I'd ask for one of their young pitchers back (Minor/Beachy/Delgado/Teheran. (I do agree with you that Axford's value is probably at its peak and I would have no problem trading him either)

 

So looking at the big picture would I rather have Profar and a Hall type prospect or Castellanos and Banuelos/Atlanta pitcher? I'd probably take the second. Which would you rather take?

[HiAndTight]

So looking at the big picture would I rather have Profar and a Hall type prospect or Castellanos and Banuelos/Atlanta pitcher? I'd probably take the second. Which would you rather take?

 

Well, I think superstars win World Series. You can get to the playoffs with a solid lineup up and down the order, but the difference in the playoffs is having true superstar aces, and position players who can hit great pitching. A lot of guys can hit good pitching, but what separates the good one from the great ones to me is your ability to hit the best. I'm repeating myself here again, but getting that leadoff hitter, who BY THE WAY, is a switch hitter, who can carry a .400 OBP while playing GG Shortstop is so incredibly unique I can't think of one off the top of my head. Not to mention he's got the speed to steal 30-40 bases a year.

 

You can fill in a lineup SO much easier when you can get one of the best leadoff hitters in the game and one of the best #3 hitters in the game and pencil them into the lineup everyday(throw in the D at Short..). For instance, Profar/Lucroy/Braun...

Give me those three to hit 1-3 for the next 6 years, Gallardo to front a rotation with several guys who have the pure STUFF to be an ace.(which not to go on a tangent here, but it's annoying when I hear that Thornburg's "ceiling," is a #2/3 or the same with Bradley/Jungman. No, that's their likely ceiling. Their actual ceiling, when you throw in the mid to upper 90's, plus fastball with sink as Jungman has, and a sharp curve as he's developing and a good change, or a upper 90's fastball and a plus curve and change as Thornburg has, or Bradley's pure stuff, they've the ceiling of an ace).

 

 

So no, I would not rather take that trade. I think the more you see of some of Atlanta's young pitchers, a little bit of the shine rubs off on them(and it's important which one obviously, Teheran is obviously the best). I think even Teheran and Castellanos wouldn't be as good as Profar and a pitcher as I described, a young, projectable, but lowly rated A ball pitcher.

 

 

So I'd take one GREAT player and hope you en

 

 

Sorry for long response. But there you go, I'd just take the superstars. You could continue that batting order for the long term and throw in Mat Gamel whom I'm still 100 pct on board with being our everyday 1st basemen and being a very good one at that, Taylor Green who I still like and think can man 3rd base to the tune of .270/.340/.470 and give you 20 HR's(I think you add 10-15 points for Gamel and 5 HR's). Gennett could even take that #2 spot in the order as he seems custom made for it. Logan Schafer...and of course, there's always the ability to trade a young pitcher for a very good position player.

 

I see Profar as a player that would be the best leadoff hitter in the game overall and Castenellos as a very good player, but Profar I could see having 8 WAR peak years. I sincerely believe that. If you can play great D at short, you're already a valuable player. If you can get on base like Profar can, you're an elite perennial all-star type player.

 

 

By the way, maybe Brooks Hall was a bad example for the type of pitcher I'm thinking of. I've just loved Hall since we drafted him. I'm really just thinking of a player perhaps a year removed from the Dominican league who throws in the mid to upper 90's with poor control and secondary pitches that are erratic, but are there and have great movement, but maybe is 19 years old and walks 6 per 9. You know, a guy who probably won't make it, but if he can figure it out, can turn into another Axford type?

 

 

Anyway, sorry for all the pontificating and belaboring my point now. I suppose a simple NO would have been sufficient!

 

 

 

One last thing...anyone not TOO disappointed in Greinke's outing tonight? Anyone here not mind if we're not going to be in it this year that maybe he has a bit of a inflated ERA to bring that price tag down? Of course that should probably be in blue, but I'd go back to him if he has another bad start or two and put the Cain deal on the table! Save this whole conversation and throw it in the "no longer relevant discussion," category now?

 

Man...all this talk about superstar SS's makes me yearn for the rookie leagues to start so I can follow Arcia!

[paul253]

I have to admit I am a little surprised you'd take Profar and a project over Castellanos and Teheran. Teheran is a top 10 overall prospect himself and I think Castellanos will make a significant jump from his current BA ranking of 45.

 

You said superstars win World Series. I agree to a point but we had Braun and Fielder for how long without winning a Series? Or even making a Series? I think pitching wins the World Series. If you can get Teheran for either Axford or Greinke you take it in a heartbeat.

[HiAndTight]

I have to admit I am a little surprised you'd take Profar and a project over Castellanos and Teheran. Teheran is a top 10 overall prospect himself and I think Castellanos will make a significant jump from his current BA ranking of 45.

 

You said superstars win World Series. I agree to a point but we had Braun and Fielder for how long without winning a Series? Or even making a Series? I think pitching wins the World Series. If you can get Teheran for either Axford or Greinke you take it in a heartbeat.

 

No, great pitching and superstar position players win world series. The long exception being the Giants in recent times.

 

And you're not saying that you'd take Teheran over Profar? I can't possibly disagree most with that....Profar hits for average, has the best strike zone in the system and one of the best in the pro, and has a cannon for an arm, as well as outstanding range. Again, I look at a guy who could be Starlin Castro but have an OBP 50 points higher and actually play great defense. I keep repeating this, but when's the last time a SS like that came around? Which is why he'll be traded, but why I'm also so confused as to why you would rather have Teheran.

 

 

By the way, Teheran is 17th and Castellos is 18th in the updated prospect rankings. And I think Teheran is overrated. I think Braves pitching prospects get overrated because of their history just as I think Yankee prospects in general are overrated.

 

But again, it doesn't sound like the Rangers would even consider trading Profar, so it doesn't really matter. And I wouldn't trade Greinke for Teheran and the Braves wouldn't want Axford as they're set in their BP.

 

 

Either way, your line of thinking is more accurate anyway as Profar, like I said, is almost certainly not available like Harper, Trout, Moore and Bundy aren't available for anything other than a huge haul, so it doesn't really matter. Your suggestions are more likely. I think, and I've said this in not so many words, are a pipe dream.

[HiAndTight]

I have to admit I am a little surprised you'd take Profar and a project over Castellanos and Teheran. Teheran is a top 10 overall prospect himself and I think Castellanos will make a significant jump from his current BA ranking of 45.

 

You said superstars win World Series. I agree to a point but we had Braun and Fielder for how long without winning a Series? Or even making a Series? I think pitching wins the World Series. If you can get Teheran for either Axford or Greinke you take it in a heartbeat.

 

 

By the way, we also had Greinke/Gallardo/Marcum last year and didn't win a World Series. I don't like the argument that, "we had Prince and Braun and didn't win a WS." It's leaving SO much out of the equation.

 

Halladay/Hamels/Lee/Oswalt and Worley didn't win a WS for the Phillies.

Moore/Price/Shields/Hellickson and Nieman didn't win a WS for the Rays(though Longo did get them in by being the type of player I'm talking about...the rare player who doesn't just put up great numbers, but can hit great pitchers in big spots.

 

 

And truth be told, other than hype, I don't believe there is much of a difference between TT, Bradley, Nelson, Jungman than Teheran. I also like a lot of other guys in the system as well, but I'm simply highlighting those guys. I think Brooks Hall could develop into one of those types along the way as well.

[paul253]

And you're not saying that you'd take Teheran over Profar?

 

That's not what I was saying. I was saying the combination of Teheran and Castellanos vs Profar and a project. It's hard to say without putting a name to "a project" but yes I'd rather take Teheran and Castellanos. If it was strictly Profar vs Teheran I'd take Profar.

 

And truth be told, other than hype, I don't believe there is much of a difference between TT, Bradley, Nelson, Jungman than Teheran.

 

I do. Teheran is in AAA right now and putting up a sub 3 ERA as a 21 year old. His walk/k rate isn't as good this year but he put up good numbers is AAA last year as a 20 year old as well 15-3 2.55 ERA 122/48 in 144.2 IP.

 

Peralta is in AAA now as a 22 year old as is struggling big time. Thornburg is doing really well but he's still in AA as 23 year old. The other three are still in High A ball as 21 (soon to be 22) 22 (soon to be 23) and 22 year olds respectively. I like their upside as well but I think, as of now at least, Teheran is a step ahead of all of them with Thorburg being the closest.

 

By the way, we also had Greinke/Gallardo/Marcum last year and didn't win a World Series.

 

Well only one team can win the series each year. But all the teams you mentioned made the playoffs last year, Milwaukee made the NLCS. Tampa and Philly have each made the playoffs multiple times over the past 3 or 4 years.

 

Milwaukee made the playoffs twice with Braun and Fielder. In 2008 and it's very possible that without Sabathia they don't make it. And 2011 with Greinke Gallardo and Marcum. I think based on the 2009 and 2010 seasons it's fair to say they don't make the playoffs without Marcum and Greinke, who went a combined 29-13 with a 3.7 ERA in 2011. Compare that to the 2010 starting combination who they replaced (Parra/Davis/Capuano/Bush) who went a combined 16-31 with an ERA of 4.87 (though that combines Parra and Capuano's relief appearances as well) The lineup was essentially the same (Weeks, Braun, Fielder, Hart, McGehee, Lucroy). The pitching is what made the difference.

[paul253]

Getting back a little more on topic. Detroit calls and offers Castellanos straight up for Greinke. Do you take it (assuming we are out of contention)?

[KCBrewerfan34]

If Greinke is shopped Melvin better offer him to ALL contenders and drive up the bidding, The Brewer really need to get a future leaguer back. Where was Melvin on Daniel Hudson and Gio Gonzalez or Trevor Cahill for that matter, UGH