The Combined 'We're Trading Greinke' Thread (part 1)

[Raw Biz]

I have no good feeling about a Greinke trade. The percentage of trades that work out well for clubs getting the best player in the deal far outweighs the the prospects. Obviously it works out in some case, but it hasn't very often in MKE.

 

Sign Greinke!!!!

 

I might be inclined to agree if we were trading away a few years of service. However, we'd be trading away less than 3 months. All we would need to do is get more value than the draft picks (and whatever Greinke provided those 3 months, even though that doesn't really matter since we more than likely will not make the playoffs).

 

I'm also not directing this at just you but a lot of people keep screaming to sign Greinke, as if the FO hasn't tried or doesn't want to. Almost everybody here would obviously love to resign him but the fact of the matter is, Greinke is a stud pitcher and stud pitchers usually get top dollar. We're just not in a position to be able to give him what he's asking. And for those that want to sign him to whatever it takes, I don't want to invest $25+ mil/yr in one player who plays every 5 days at a position that carries the greatest injury for risk. At a certain point, you have to walk away when the investment is just too much.

[PrinceEatMeat]

I have no good feeling about a Greinke trade. The percentage of trades that work out well for clubs getting the best player in the deal far outweighs the the prospects. Obviously it works out in some case, but it hasn't very often in MKE.

 

Sign Greinke!!!!

 

I might be inclined to agree if we were trading away a few years of service. However, we'd be trading away less than 3 months. All we would need to do is get more value than the draft picks (and whatever Greinke provided those 3 months, even though that doesn't really matter since we more than likely will not make the playoffs).

 

I'm also not directing this at just you but a lot of people keep screaming to sign Greinke, as if the FO hasn't tried or doesn't want to. Almost everybody here would obviously love to resign him but the fact of the matter is, Greinke is a stud pitcher and stud pitchers usually get top dollar. We're just not in a position to be able to give him what he's asking. And for those that want to sign him to whatever it takes, I don't want to invest $25+ mil/yr in one player who plays every 5 days at a position that carries the greatest injury for risk. At a certain point, you have to walk away when the investment is just too much.

 

These are my thoughts exactly. Couldn't have said it any better. Teams like the Yankees can afford to throw $25 mil/yr at pitchers, but the Brewers can't afford that. It's just not justifiable for a guy who impacts 30-35 games a year. Based on the past with CC and Prince, it seems like our best offer may be 6 years, $120 million, and that may be pushing it. Greinke won't take that either. He'll try to eclipse the Cain deal. I just don't think that money is worth it unless we're talking about a player like Braun, or other MVP caliber player like Fielder. But that kind of money won't get most of those guys either. It's just how it is for a team like the Brewers. Gotta be realistic with expectations. The goal when trading Greinke would be to get a better return than the draft picks they'd receive, preferably including young, MLB-ready pitching that can help next year when our rotation will lose 3 starters.

[chuckiehacks]

It's not just people here saying that. I saw a report yesterday that said the Braves are scouting Greinke and would be interested if they could sign him long term at $15MM per year, rather than $20MM per. If he could be signed for $15MM, the Brewers would have done that already.

[markedman5]

So Texas anyone? Who would be the targets if the guys they mention are not in play?

 

http://insider.espn.go.com/blog/the-gms-office/post?id=4488&_slug_=10-most-likely-to-be-traded-by-july-31

[wibadgers23]

I hope DM laughed and hung up the phone if Texas told him they weren't trading any of those three for Greinke.

[markedman5]

Jon Morosi ‏@jonmorosi

#Brewers have a scout watching the prospect-laden Frisco club, #Rangers Class AA affiliate. Further evidence of Texas interest in Greinke.

 

Jon Morosi ‏@jonmorosi

To be clear, the #Brewers have a special assignment scout watching Frisco. I'm told this is not routine coverage. #Rangers #Greinke

 

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?t=t_ibp&cid=540

[Dnye23]

I hope DM laughed and hung up the phone if Texas told him they weren't trading any of those three for Greinke.

 

I agree. If they don't give up Profar, then I say discussion over.

[PilprinBuddha]

I have no good feeling about a Greinke trade. The percentage of trades that work out well for clubs getting the best player in the deal far outweighs the the prospects. Obviously it works out in some case, but it hasn't very often in MKE.

 

Sign Greinke!!!!

 

I might be inclined to agree if we were trading away a few years of service. However, we'd be trading away less than 3 months. All we would need to do is get more value than the draft picks (and whatever Greinke provided those 3 months, even though that doesn't really matter since we more than likely will not make the playoffs).

 

I'm also not directing this at just you but a lot of people keep screaming to sign Greinke, as if the FO hasn't tried or doesn't want to. Almost everybody here would obviously love to resign him but the fact of the matter is, Greinke is a stud pitcher and stud pitchers usually get top dollar. We're just not in a position to be able to give him what he's asking. And for those that want to sign him to whatever it takes, I don't want to invest $25+ mil/yr in one player who plays every 5 days at a position that carries the greatest injury for risk. At a certain point, you have to walk away when the investment is just too much.

 

$25 a year...no....$20 a year....yes.

[paul253]

I agree. If they don't give up Profar, then I say discussion over.

 

So if they offered you a 23 year old third basemen who is hitting .302 with 22 home runs and an OPS of 1.008 in AA you'd still say no?

 

I think I'd take Olt or Profar straight up and Perez if they included someone else.

[markedman5]

Is it realistic to think they will give up Profar for 2 months of Greinke?

[Warning Track Power]

I may be WAY unrealistic but I don't really care. Aces, even with only 3 months of service time remaining, aren't that easy to find. If Texas wants Greinke you have to start with Profar. Our biggest trade chip SHOULD fill our biggest hole, namely SS. Hang up the phone without him and stand firm.

 

Secondly, Texas absolutely has the financial ability to immediately offer Greinke the Cain deal or more. If Greinke is dealt there, I firmly believe he will re-sign there. Give them a period of time to negotiate an extension before the deal to see if he will re-sign immediately. If he does, then you stand firm on Olt being in the deal as well. Profar and Olt for 5+ years of an ace like Greinke seems about right to me. If he doesn't sign a deal, then you include what is necessary to get Olt; K-Rod, Axford, whatever. At the end of it all, the Brewers, hopefully, will have effectively re-built their 3B & SS positions for the next six seasons to pair offensively with Braun, Lucroy and hopefully, Weeks and Hart. Trade Ramirez to the Dodgers for the package they were willing to give for Carlos Lee. Let Wolf walk. See what a Marcum extension would look like.

 

Realisitically, the Brewers were always going to sink or swim with the success of Fiers, Thornburg, Peralta, Bradley and Jungmann anyways. A trade of Greinke for offensive talent such as this is the way to go if Greinke will not re-sign.

[3and2Fastball]

I would definitely take Olt, too...sounds like the Rangers are refusing to deal Profar but that may just be posturing in the media.

 

I think it somewhat depends on whether the Phillies are willing to deal Hamels. If Hamels is unavailable, teams will be forced to overpay for Greinke

[Raw Biz]

I have no good feeling about a Greinke trade. The percentage of trades that work out well for clubs getting the best player in the deal far outweighs the the prospects. Obviously it works out in some case, but it hasn't very often in MKE.

 

Sign Greinke!!!!

 

I might be inclined to agree if we were trading away a few years of service. However, we'd be trading away less than 3 months. All we would need to do is get more value than the draft picks (and whatever Greinke provided those 3 months, even though that doesn't really matter since we more than likely will not make the playoffs).

 

I'm also not directing this at just you but a lot of people keep screaming to sign Greinke, as if the FO hasn't tried or doesn't want to. Almost everybody here would obviously love to resign him but the fact of the matter is, Greinke is a stud pitcher and stud pitchers usually get top dollar. We're just not in a position to be able to give him what he's asking. And for those that want to sign him to whatever it takes, I don't want to invest $25+ mil/yr in one player who plays every 5 days at a position that carries the greatest injury for risk. At a certain point, you have to walk away when the investment is just too much.

 

$25 a year...no....$20 a year....yes.

 

Obviously you were trying to be funny but I did include the "mil" there. Maybe it should have been $25 mil+.

[fondybrewfan]

Based on the current rumors it definitely looks like the Braves and Rangers are the most active suitors right now. I would prefer to deal with TEX because it appears they have more upper echelon prospects to offer.

 

I would take Olt or Profar straight up for 2 months of Grienke any day; I would probably take Martin and a couple mid level prospects too. I would love Olt as he could be ready for Mid 2013 where we could shift Aram to 1st for the last 1.5 years of his contract.

 

No one in the Braves system really excites me like that. I like Machada for BAL as well but he might be a little over rated IMO.

[nate82]

I would definitely take Olt, too...sounds like the Rangers are refusing to deal Profar but that may just be posturing in the media.

 

I think it somewhat depends on whether the Phillies are willing to deal Hamels. If Hamels is unavailable, teams will be forced to overpay for Greinke

 

The Phillies are looking for a Mark Teixeira type of a haul for Hamels (4 to 5 prospects for Hamels). The demand by some here for a return on Greinke isn't even what the Phillies are looking to get for Hamels. The Phillies are looking at 3B so Olt would be in the discussion plus at least 3 more A-/B type prospects with a C+ prospect with a high ceiling. The Phillies are asking for the moon and rightfully so. I am not sure the Phillies will get that much as teams have been hesitant to give up that many prospects for awhile now even with getting picks in return. If the Rangers only offered Profar for Greinke it would be foolish to pass that deal up.

 

The Phillies are actually setting the market which I like as it makes selling Greinke that much more easier.

[markedman5]

As a fan you can be unrealistic...as a GM you have to make the best deal possible.

 

You get the best return you can for Greinke....if they will include Profar(doubtful) great but if they won't then either you take their best offer or a better one from somebody else.

 

Unlikely that they will sign Greinke since they have Hamilton to deal with as a FA and couldn't even afford to keep Wilson last year.

 

 

I may be WAY unrealistic but I don't really care. Aces, even with only 3 months of service time remaining, aren't that easy to find. If Texas wants Greinke you have to start with Profar. Our biggest trade chip SHOULD fill our biggest hole, namely SS. Hang up the phone without him and stand firm.

 

Secondly, Texas absolutely has the financial ability to immediately offer Greinke the Cain deal or more. If Greinke is dealt there, I firmly believe he will re-sign there. Give them a period of time to negotiate an extension before the deal to see if he will re-sign immediately. If he does, then you stand firm on Olt being in the deal as well. Profar and Olt for 5+ years of an ace like Greinke seems about right to me. If he doesn't sign a deal, then you include what is necessary to get Olt; K-Rod, Axford, whatever. At the end of it all, the Brewers, hopefully, will have effectively re-built their 3B & SS positions for the next six seasons to pair offensively with Braun, Lucroy and hopefully, Weeks and Hart. Trade Ramirez to the Dodgers for the package they were willing to give for Carlos Lee. Let Wolf walk. See what a Marcum extension would look like.

 

Realisitically, the Brewers were always going to sink or swim with the success of Fiers, Thornburg, Peralta, Bradley and Jungmann anyways. A trade of Greinke for offensive talent such as this is the way to go if Greinke will not re-sign.

[nate82]

 

Unlikely that they will sign Greinke since they have Hamilton to deal with as a FA and couldn't even afford to keep Wilson last year.

 

 

This is untrue. The Rangers could have kept Wilson last year they just decided what he was getting paid was over what they had him valued at. I still see Wilson as being over paid right now and if the Rangers would have given him more and for more years that would have been a really bad contract. This was just a GM being smart and knowing how far they should go and not to give in and pay the player more than they are actually worth.

[reillymcshane]

Profar would be awesome. But that would be near impossible. He was just listed as the top prospect in baseball by John Sickels - http://www.minorleagueball.com/2012/7/2/3130761/top-120-prospect-list-for-2012-midseason-revision-update - and guys like that are rarely traded.

 

I wonder if we could give back something (along with Greinke) to facilitate the deal - something we have an excess of. But I really don't know what. It's not like we're loaded with quality depth.

 

Maldonado would be a nice guy for them. Young. Cheap. Their current catchers are Mike Napoli and Yorvit Torrealba. Napoli is okay this year (nothing like last season), but a free agent after the season. Torrealba will be 34 this month, and is a serviceable backup - nothing more. While I like Maldonado, he's not essential, especially if you can get a top SS.

 

I don't know if Texas has a good catching prospect - but I'm just trying to get creative. Maybe paying some of Greinke's salary would clinch it. Or maybe they's have interest in one of our CFs - Morgan or Gomez or Schafer.

 

I don't know the Rangers that well, so I'm sure others could identify what other needs they have - and if we could potentially help them meet those needs (without giving up key prospects or players of our own).

[markedman5]

It's semantics. Brewers could have kept Fielder but it wouldn't have been worth it. That is the same decision the rangers made with Wilson.

 

Greinke could very easily fall into that category as well.

 

 

Unlikely that they will sign Greinke since they have Hamilton to deal with as a FA and couldn't even afford to keep Wilson last year.

 

 

This is untrue. The Rangers could have kept Wilson last year they just decided what he was getting paid was over what they had him valued at. I still see Wilson as being over paid right now and if the Rangers would have given him more and for more years that would have been a really bad contract. This was just a GM being smart and knowing how far they should go and not to give in and pay the player more than they are actually worth.

[RockCoCougars]

You get the best return you can for Greinke....if they will include Profar(doubtful) great but if they won't then either you take their best offer or a better one from somebody else.

 

I disagree strongly. I think that the Brewers dictate who they want in a deal or they prepare themselves to take the draft choices if necessary. I'm tired of seeing every blip about Greinke focused on indicating who the other team won't include in a deal. Well, in my view, it's go big or go home for Greinke. He would be a game changer for anyone down the stretch and if they don't want to trade someone that is likely 1 year or more away for him, let them get a substandard option. I'd take OBO for Randy Wolf if it came to that, but not Greinke. The Brewers need to remember that they are in the driver's seat here.

[PrinceEatMeat]

I wouldn't require that Profar be included, because that just won't happen, and Texas is still the best team to deal with. Don't want to just walk away from dealing with Texas just because they refuse to include a top 10 prospect in the deal. I'd probably try to get Olt or Perez though. But I agree, I wouldn't let the other teams dictate who we get. Definitely at least aim for Olt or Perez. The Braves have a lot of good, young pitching to go after too.

[hyerbro1]

I agree that the Brewers need to weigh the offers against getting 2 draft picks, but Profar is not happening. I don't think that is being pessimistic.

[jmeks23]

Olt would be the overpayment on a deal for Greinke. I think that's why Melvin (if he trades Greinke) will try to maneuver these teams and get Texas to give up Holland and Olt. Holland is actually pretty good, though he's struggled this year and hasn't really "taken off" per se. He had a great postseason last year and honestly against NL opponents might figure it out.

 

People need to realize that teams overpay at the deadline a lot. Look at what the Dodgers were about to give up for Lee. It doesn't necessarily mean that we will be a team that gets that overpayment for Greinke or Marcum but I'm merely stating the fact. If the Brewers can get any top 10 prospect or top 25 for that matter then they accomplished something. They didn't give up either for Greinke or Marcum (though Lawrie probably should've been top 25)

[markedman5]

This philosphy only works if you think the draft picks are worth more then the players offered.

 

As I said you take the best deal possible...if the best deal is to keep him and take the picks you do it.

 

We can tell The Rangers(or any other team) this is what it will take and they can tell us to go jump in the lake.

 

Taking draft choices is not an appealing option but it is certainly an option.

 

Hopefully the market heats up and we have 2 or 3 teams bidding for him.

You get the best return you can for Greinke....if they will include Profar(doubtful) great but if they won't then either you take their best offer or a better one from somebody else.

 

I disagree strongly. I think that the Brewers dictate who they want in a deal or they prepare themselves to take the draft choices if necessary. I'm tired of seeing every blip about Greinke focused on indicating who the other team won't include in a deal. Well, in my view, it's go big or go home for Greinke. He would be a game changer for anyone down the stretch and if they don't want to trade someone that is likely 1 year or more away for him, let them get a substandard option. I'd take OBO for Randy Wolf if it came to that, but not Greinke. The Brewers need to remember that they are in the driver's seat here.

[hyerbro1]

Rangers SP Cody Buckel

 

Rangers SP Martin Perez

 

Rangers 3b Mike Olt (Prospect Smackdown)

 

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