The Combined 'We're Trading Greinke' Thread (part 1)

[ninja33]

Is anyone familiar with the Dodgers system? I know Eovaldi is one of their better prospects, but that's about all I know. I ask because they're about to lose their division lead, they're going to panic, and Ned Colletti can be taken advantage of.

[nate82]

Is anyone familiar with the Dodgers system? I know Eovaldi is one of their better prospects, but that's about all I know. I ask because they're about to lose their division lead, they're going to panic, and Ned Colletti can be taken advantage of.

 

I would not want Eovaldi as a center piece for a Greinke trade in my opinion Eovaldi is a #3 starter tops and probably more realistically is a #4 or #5 type starter. Eovaldi is not someone I want the Brewers to be looking at if they are trading Greinke. The rest of the Dodgers farm system is rather weak and most of their better prospects talent wise are in A ball. I just do not see the Dodgers being any kind of a fit for a Greinke trade.

[ninja33]

Is anyone familiar with the Dodgers system? I know Eovaldi is one of their better prospects, but that's about all I know. I ask because they're about to lose their division lead, they're going to panic, and Ned Colletti can be taken advantage of.

 

I would not want Eovaldi as a center piece for a Greinke trade in my opinion Eovaldi is a #3 starter tops and probably more realistically is a #4 or #5 type starter. Eovaldi is not someone I want the Brewers to be looking at if they are trading Greinke. The rest of the Dodgers farm system is rather weak and most of their better prospects talent wise are in A ball. I just do not see the Dodgers being any kind of a fit for a Greinke trade.

 

I agree about Eovaldi, I just didn't know if there was anything else there. Didn't think they had a centerpiece, but I thought I would ask. But Ned Colletti is dumb, so my point remains the same for non-Greinke trade discussions then.

[Raw Biz]

If anyone thinks we're getting Profar then they are out of their minds. There is absolutely no way the Rangers would even consider trading Profar for a rental. When is the last time a top 5 prospect in all of baseball got traded? Much less for a rental? For a rental the answer is never. Montero is probably as close as it gets, but that wasn't for a rental. That was for 5 years of Pineda. That's more of the kind of deal it would take to get Profar. Olt is even a pipe dream, but more realistic at least.

 

Not a fan of these "out of your mind if think 'x'" posts. Yes Profar might be wishing. But I don't think it should be dismissed outright. Texas has Andrus and Kinsler up the middle for the next couple of years, plus Beltre and Young. Sure they could move one of those guys. But if they really wanted Greinke (and I think they should, since he would put them as the absolute favs for a WS title) and Melvin was really insistent on Profar, it could happen. However, I don't think Melvin is the type to be really insistent on a certain player and I could see him being talked into something less.

[wibadgers23]

Greinke for Kevin Mench and Laynce Nix.

[ninja33]

If anyone thinks we're getting Profar then they are out of their minds. There is absolutely no way the Rangers would even consider trading Profar for a rental. When is the last time a top 5 prospect in all of baseball got traded? Much less for a rental? For a rental the answer is never. Montero is probably as close as it gets, but that wasn't for a rental. That was for 5 years of Pineda. That's more of the kind of deal it would take to get Profar. Olt is even a pipe dream, but more realistic at least.

 

Not a fan of these "out of your mind if think 'x'" posts. Yes Profar might be wishing. But I don't think it should be dismissed outright. Texas has Andrus and Kinsler up the middle for the next couple of years, plus Beltre and Young. Sure they could move one of those guys. But if they really wanted Greinke (and I think they should, since he would put them as the absolute favs for a WS title) and Melvin was really insistent on Profar, it could happen. However, I don't think Melvin is the type to be really insistent on a certain player and I could see him being talked into something less.

 

but wishful thinking like that is more than likely going to lead to "Melvin is an idiot, he should have held out for Profar!" posts if a trade is made for Martin Perez and some mid-tier prospects. It's not going to be Melvin talked into something less, it's going to be Jon Daniels saying "NO" because Profar is a top 2 or 3 prospect in all of baseball. He's also only 19, so he may not see MLB until late next year or 2014. Kinsler is not under contract in 2014, and I believe that is Andrus's last year under contract. I don't really see either guy holding up Profar, or the need to trade Profar so they can sign Kinsler or Andrus to a big deal in 2014 and beyond. Anything is possible I guess, so I understand wanting to temper the "crazy" or "out of their mind" talk...but Jon Daniels is a smart GM and he's not going to trade Profar for a half season of Greinke. I don't even know that he'd trade Olt.

[RockCoCougars]

Outside of the top two prospects, I'm not sure that I'd want to deal with Texas. I'd be interested in Feliz as part of a deal, but I don't want guys from the low minors, middling pitching prospects or substandard MLBfodder like Derek Holland. I see no reason to help Texas out again like they did with the Carlos Lee trade. If they don't want to pony up, let them make do with Oswalt or some other b-level guy.

 

Of course, to me this is all contingent if Greinke won't extend and the Brewers are out of the race.

[Raw Biz]

Kinsler is signed through 2017, with option for 2018. Andrus through 2014. So yeah Andrus likely wouldn't hold up Profar but I also don't know if the Rangers would want to just let Andrus walk either. They could always trade him in the offseason or next year I guess.

[PrinceEatMeat]

If anyone thinks we're getting Profar then they are out of their minds. There is absolutely no way the Rangers would even consider trading Profar for a rental. When is the last time a top 5 prospect in all of baseball got traded? Much less for a rental? For a rental the answer is never. Montero is probably as close as it gets, but that wasn't for a rental. That was for 5 years of Pineda. That's more of the kind of deal it would take to get Profar. Olt is even a pipe dream, but more realistic at least.

 

Not a fan of these "out of your mind if think 'x'" posts. Yes Profar might be wishing. But I don't think it should be dismissed outright. Texas has Andrus and Kinsler up the middle for the next couple of years, plus Beltre and Young. Sure they could move one of those guys. But if they really wanted Greinke (and I think they should, since he would put them as the absolute favs for a WS title) and Melvin was really insistent on Profar, it could happen. However, I don't think Melvin is the type to be really insistent on a certain player and I could see him being talked into something less.

 

Honestly, there is absolutely no way Profar will be traded. And especially not for a rental like Greinke. It's not gonna happen. Plain and simple. The Rangers will make room for him if they have to. They'd probably trade Andrus to make room if they had to. Daniels would laugh at Melvin if he asked for Profar in return for Greinke. Olt is even a pipe dream. People need to realize how good of a prospect Profar is. He's not just the Rangers top prospect, he's one of the best prospects in all of baseball, if not the best. Olt is more of the guy you could say would be wishing, but shouldn't be dismissed. There's a 0% chance of getting Profar for Greinke. Even if Melvin insists, they'll just say ok we pass, and then go and get the next best starter on the market. It's not like Greinke will be the only available option out there. Melvin won't have that kinda leverage. Sure Melvin will have a certain return in mind, but that doesn't mean that other GMs are stupid. The price will have to come down a little at some point if he doesn't get what he wants. I just think people need to temper there expectations on what the return for Greinke will be. He's not gonna get us a prospect the caliber of Profar. However, we can still get a good return for him.

[paul253]

It's not necessarily a rental. It's not like Texas isn't allowed to sign Greinke. If they feel like they can sign him they may want to get him early for help this year and then sign him to a long term deal after the season.

 

I'm not sure that I'd want to deal with Texas. I'd be interested in Feliz as part of a deal, but I don't want guys from the low minors, middling pitching prospects or substandard MLBfodder like Derek Holland. I see no reason to help Texas out again like they did with the Carlos Lee trade

 

I doubt they get Profar for Greinke, but Olt is a .300 hitter with 20 home runs in AA. And Perez is a top 30 prospect. Barrett Loux looks solid too. Same with Justin Grimm. All those guys are in AA, and I think Grimm just got promoted to Texas. Just because we can't get Profar doesn't mean we should give up on Texas. The problem with the Carlos Lee deal was Melvin's insistence on major league talent. What they got for Lee was a horrible return. If Melvin makes that kind of trade for Greinke he should be fired.

[PrinceEatMeat]

It's not necessarily a rental. It's not like Texas isn't allowed to sign Greinke. If they feel like they can sign him they may want to get him early for help this year and then sign him to a long term deal after the season.

 

I'm not sure that I'd want to deal with Texas. I'd be interested in Feliz as part of a deal, but I don't want guys from the low minors, middling pitching prospects or substandard MLBfodder like Derek Holland. I see no reason to help Texas out again like they did with the Carlos Lee trade

 

I doubt they get Profar for Greinke, but Olt is a .300 hitter with 20 home runs in AA. And Perez is a top 30 prospect. Barrett Loux looks solid too. Same with Justin Grimm. All those guys are in AA, and I think Grimm just got promoted to Texas. Just because we can't get Profar doesn't mean we should give up on Texas. The problem with the Carlos Lee deal was Melvin's insistence on major league talent. What they got for Lee was a horrible return. If Melvin makes that kind of trade for Greinke he should be fired.

 

Absolutely, I agree. My point was just that Profar isn't happening. Texas is still the best team to deal with. They are stocked in the minors. Olt is probably unlikely as well, but he's at least possible. I like the other guys you mentioned though. Gotta figure they'd all be on the table. Melvin won't make a Lee type deal here, but what he at least might look for is major league ready pitching. Most likely starting pitching, so Perez or Grimm would fit that bill. With Perez just getting recalled today, it makes me wonder if it was, in part, as an audition for possible trades. With Greinke, Marcum, and Wolf all likely gone after this season, it would be nice to land at least one good, young starter in a deadline deal.

[TheCrew07]

but wishful thinking like that is more than likely going to lead to "Melvin is an idiot, he should have held out for Profar!" posts if a trade is made for Martin Perez and some mid-tier prospects

 

Boy it would sure stink to have to settle for Martin Perez who I've been coveting since 2009. While he's slow to settle in at each new level he's also:

Since signing for $580,000 in 2007, Perez has rocketed through the system and developed into one of the game's premier lefthanded pitching prospects. He reached Double-A at age 18 and finally mastered that level in his third stint at Frisco last year, then was the youngest pitcher in the Triple-A Pacific Coast League when he was promoted there in mid-July. Scouts rave about Perez's picture-perfect delivery and arm action that evoke comparisons to fellow Venezuelan lefty Johan Santana. There aren't many pitchers who can match Perez's pure stuff, as he has the makings of three above-average pitches. His lively fastball sits at 90-96 mph with sink, though he needs to work on establishing it more early in counts. He also throws a plus-plus 80-82 mph fading changeup and a sharp 73-77 mph curveball with good depth. Wavering command and inconsistency with his secondary pitches have held Perez back slightly. The Rangers have discussed adding a slider to give him a breaking ball that he can better control. Despite his smallish frame, they aren't worried about his durability. For all the attention given to his struggles in his first two years in Double-A and in his 10 PCL starts, Perez got to Triple-A at age 20. He needs additional seasoning at Round Rock but should contribute in Texas at some point in 2012. Added to the 40-man roster in November, he profiles as a No. 2 starter.

 

Even if Perez needs another full season of development time, so what? I'd rather take a shot on him then getting back someone like Derek Holland who fit's Melvin's trading history.

 

Regarding Melvin, if you really think that's where people like myself have been coming from then you've missed the point entirely. I've taken extreme issue with Melvin's tendency to go after short-term solutions and his acquiring of high floor but low ceiling prospects in trades. Sometimes that's all he can get, like getting Villy for Franklin, that was a good trade. However if he waits until the deadline and gets some mediocre proven veteran then the same excuse makers will excuse away the result as, "What was he supposed to do?" when the answer has literally been posted 100s of times. He's supposed to identify and work to maximize the return on every asset in the organization, waiting until the trading deadline to decide that the Brewers are out of it would severely limit his options and be trading as his lowest possible value. He should have started putting feelers out a month ago, and he should have started testing the waters by last week, that's what he's supposed to do as a GM. Every day Greinke's value goes down, it's that simple.

 

It's not about quitting on a season, it's about realistically assessing the strengths and weaknesses of your current team and organization, then moving forward in a way that best meets the future needs of the franchise. It's not like people just woke up one morning and decided to start criticizing Melvin, he's established easily identifiable patterns in his tenure as GM which have had both positive and negative consequences. Furthermore, he's directly responsible for the depth of the organization and performance of the MLB team. People can blame the players and blame the manager, but who's ultimately responsible for all of it? I was once a Melvin fan-boy, but when I became hooked on impact pitching my enthusiasm for him waned significantly and has eroded further every year since.

 

I do understand why he's popular, many people are just happy be relevant again, I get that most don't care about the minors, or organization building, or ultimate trade value... they just want the MLB team to win and go to the post season. I'm okay with all of that, truly I am, to each their own. However I am disappointed that no matter who the messenger is, it seems that many of the pro Melvin responders don't seem to fully understand the arguments being presented by the other side. That's basically what the "What was Melvin supposed to do?" and "revisionist history" posts tell us, that our position with in-regards to Melvin being short-sighted is being completely overlooked or ignored despite the overwhelming evidence supporting the claim.

 

Personally I'd rather someone actually shoot holes in the theories and prove to us where we've interpreted Melvin's moves incorrectly than toss out the same generic responses time after time. Prospects fail, Melvin did the best he could, no other trades were available... the first is partly true, the second is entirely open to the debate, and the 3rd is completely false. For example, reliable sources had SF offering Cain for Hart after his break out season... then those same sources had the Braves wanting to trade for Hart later.

 

Here's a what if... what if we had acquired Cain for Hart and Cain was on the mound that day in Chicago when Fielder dove right in front Gallardo who blew out his knee. That play doesn't even have the opportunity to happen, we roll towards the post season with Sheets, Cain, and Gallardo and the following year we still have Cain and Gallardo at the top of rotation even after getting nothing for Sheets. What if instead of trading for Bush, Gross, Jackson with Overbay we had gone after the better talent in Marcum. Marcum still blows out his elbow in 2008 but in 2009 we have Marcum, Cain, and Gallardo at the top of the rotation. Then again maybe we target McGowan with Overbay and he gets hurt anyway but then we move Hardy for Buchholz and bring up Escobar... Just because the dominoes fell one way doesn't mean the situation couldn't have gone a completely different way if an alternative option was chosen. It wasn't fated to be Linebrink, Lopez, Sabathia, Suppan, Davis, Looper, Greinke, Marcum, Bush, Lee, Cordero, and so on... those were just choices, nothing more and nothing less.

[brewmann04]

Paul just curious what moves could have Melvin Pulled off that year?

Seems like the Angels had a Scout their yeaterday also.

[endaround]

Much more "reliable sources" upthread just told me Greinke is a #3 pitcher and the Brewers should be happy to get salary relief

[narwhalattack]

Much more "reliable sources" upthread just told me Greinke is a #3 pitcher and the Brewers should be happy to get salary relief

 

Pffft, if that's the case, Verlander is no better than a #2 starter.

[jerichoholicninja]

Give Texas Greinke and Axford for Profar and change. Nathan is old and Neftali is a starter now.

[Lucroy fan]

Take it for what it is worth but Callis doesn't think Profar is untouchable. From his chat yesterday.

 

Does Profar change positions, or how do you project him in Texas or do you see him being trade bait?

Jim Callis: Depends on whether he sticks with the Rangers. If he does, I believe Andrus stays at shortstop and Profar may go to second base and push Kinsler to the outfield. If he gets traded, no reason Profar can't stay at shortstop.

 

I guess I don't see much of a difference in Lawrie who was traded for two possible post-season runs with Marcum or potentially Profar who would be traded for one solid pretty much guaranteed post-season run with Greinke.

[brewmann04]

I still think Mark A will get a deal done and will not be moved.

[paul253]

Paul just curious what moves could have Melvin Pulled off that year?

 

I'm not sure what you are referring to. Can you help me out

 

The good thing about making a deal with Texas is that they have so many high ceiling prospects. If they show interest in Greinke, it's hard to say "yeah we want maybe the best available pitcher but you can't have any of our top 4 prospects". Could you imagine the Brewers approaching KC and saying "we want Greinke but you can't have Odorizzi, Peralta or Lawrie". If Texas says that Profar, Perez, Olt, and Grimm are all out of question then they are not seriously about obtaining Greinke. I think any one of them would be a great get, though admittedly I know little about Justin Grimm and would not accept just him. So even if Profar is untouchable, I think Olt or Perez would be a very good return. If somehow they can obtain two of those players, even if we have to throw in someone else, we'd still be better off. Greinke and KRod for Olt and Perez. I'd be down with that.

[RockCoCougars]

I don't want Perez. I don't care how highly BA ranks him, he hasn't been good in the minors as evidenced by the low strikeout totals and 1.475 WHIP (yikes). He's really been knocked around in AA and AAA. He seems to have slightly above average stuff for a lefty, but nothing mind blowing. As for Grimm, I'd be interested, but as a secondary piece....good stuff, but really a crap shoot.

[JohnBriggs12]

Outside of the top two prospects, I'm not sure that I'd want to deal with Texas. I'd be interested in Feliz as part of a deal, but I don't want guys from the low minors, middling pitching prospects or substandard MLBfodder like Derek Holland. I see no reason to help Texas out again like they did with the Carlos Lee trade. If they don't want to pony up, let them make do with Oswalt or some other b-level guy.

 

Of course, to me this is all contingent if Greinke won't extend and the Brewers are out of the race.

 

 

Where are you getting that Derek Holland is "substandard" MLB fodder? He had a 16-5 record and an ERA under 4 last year in the AL at age 24. He also had 162 strikeouts facing lineups that don't include pitchers. Just 3 years ago, he was ranked as the 31st best prospect in baseball. He allowed 1 run in 10 innings against the Cardinals in the World Series. His ERA is up a little this year, but his WHIP is better than Darvish who is actually 2 months older.

 

Only in somebodies dream world where every minor league pitcher is the next Verlander or Sabathia, is Holland considered "fodder". He's also locked up through 2016 at a pretty reasonable cost. At worst, Holland is a solid #3.

[RockCoCougars]

Outside of the top two prospects, I'm not sure that I'd want to deal with Texas. I'd be interested in Feliz as part of a deal, but I don't want guys from the low minors, middling pitching prospects or substandard MLBfodder like Derek Holland. I see no reason to help Texas out again like they did with the Carlos Lee trade. If they don't want to pony up, let them make do with Oswalt or some other b-level guy.

 

Of course, to me this is all contingent if Greinke won't extend and the Brewers are out of the race.

 

 

Where are you getting that Derek Holland is "substandard" MLB fodder? He had a 16-5 record and an ERA under 4 last year in the AL at age 24. He also had 162 strikeouts facing lineups that don't include pitchers. Just 3 years ago, he was ranked as the 31st best prospect in baseball. He allowed 1 run in 10 innings against the Cardinals in the World Series. His ERA is up a little this year, but his WHIP is better than Darvish who is actually 2 months older.

 

Only in somebodies dream world where every minor league pitcher is the next Verlander or Sabathia, is Holland considered "fodder". He's also locked up through 2016 at a pretty reasonable cost. At worst, Holland is a solid #3.

 

Sounds like the PR piece that the Brewers will release. Add in the 'he led the league in shutouts last year'. It scares me to death, but I could see Melvin asking for him, the key reason being...

He's also locked up through 2016 at a pretty reasonable cost.

 

Career WHIP nearing 1.4. The guy is a mid rotation starter at best. Right now, when he gets back, he's clearly the #4 starter and maybe the #5. He'd be the odd man out if Feliz wasn't injured. This would make him a good trade piece for the Rangers, and I could see Melvin biting because of the contract.

 

Bottom line, if Texas doesn't think that a guy is good enough for their rotation down the stretch, why should the Brewers want him?

[paul253]

Bottom line, if Texas doesn't think that a guy is good enough for their rotation down the stretch, why should the Brewers want him?

 

Not speaking specifically of Holland but Greinke is gone and we aint makiing the playoffs. So even if all you get is a #3, it might be better than the crapshoot that is known as the MLB draft. I doubt we'd take Holland straight up for Greinke as there are plenty of other options, but a solid #3 is probably not much more than you're going to get with a mid to late first round pick and a comp pick.

 

My choices from Texas would be, in order: 1) Profar 2) Olt 3) Perez 4) Grimm. If I can't get any of them I move on.

[RockCoCougars]

I'll let Greinke walk and take the two picks if Texas comes with something like Holland, Perez or Grimm and some low minors guy. If I'm 'overvaluing' Greinke, tough. I'd argue that Greinke is probably a top 5 SP in baseball this year, and if Texas wants to win a title, he'd be the best guy out there. If they want to keep their prospect base together for 2014 and beyond, too bad. In that case, you move on- you don't take their scraps.

 

Bottom line, there is no rule that Greinke must be traded. I want to extend him, but even if he won't bite on that, you don't simply take the 'best' offer. Don't trade quality for quantity, this isn't 2002 with about 6 holes all over the field. The Brewers have all the leverage unless they come off like desperate 'sellers'. Let teams come to you and if they make a bad offer laugh and hang up on them. Tell them to go big or go home.

[brewmann04]

paul here the part of the talk i believe on page 13

 

 

Melvin is not a clown how fast people forget their playoff apperances under his reign

 

Yeah but with the offensive pieces he's had under his watch (Weeks, Hart, Braun, Fielder all in their primes) it seems like it easily could have been more than 2 playoff appearances. The 2011 team could have been repeated year in and year out if he had found a way to get some decent pitching for more than half a yearaul