The Combined 'We're Trading Greinke' Thread (part 1)

[Bikeage77]

The 2012 season is just over 25% through and the Brewers are currently 9 games under .500.

 

With the excecption of one early outing, Greinke has been stellar. I'm not sure the Brewers will be able to ultimately sign him to an extension before he hits free agency, and even so, can we afford him?

 

How much will teams give up as a "rental" at a chance to go for it. Would Baltimore (provided still relevant in July)or Texas be willing to part with their top prospect shortstop at a chance to win it all? Milwaukee gave up LaPorta to get Sabathia, will other teams make that same type of move?

 

I'm just starting to accept that even though it's relatively early, Memorial Day is usually when you get an idea of how a team can compete over the course of the season. Early injuries and overall bad play has made this a tough team to watch. Is it better to wait it out and try to sign Greinke or should Melvin see what he can do in trades knowing that Hecklethorn, Thornburg, Scarpetta, and Peralta are all very close to major league level?

[monty57]

If the Brewers are still down in the standings by late June/early July, I think they have to at least make some calls to see what other teams would offer. The Brewers could get comp picks for Greinke after the season, and other teams could not, so if they are able to trade him for more value than the draft picks they would receive, then I would be all for it. To me, "more value than the picks" would have to include a top prospect in the upper minors or a high upside MLB player in their first or second year. I'd hope Melvin wouldn't trade him for a lesser talented guy with 2-3 years or "team control" remaining.

 

The first calls I'd make would be to Taxes and Baltimore (assuming Baltimore is still leading the division) to see if Profar or Machado are available. Additionally, a team like Atlanta may be willing to trade some of their young starting pitching for someone like Greinke, Marcum or Hart. I don't know what the ultimate haul would be, but I'd hope that if we sell this season we end up with a long-term answer at SS and some MLB-ready pitching.

[3and2Fastball]

If the Brewers are still down in the standings by late June/early July, I think they have to at least make some calls to see what other teams would offer. The Brewers could get comp picks for Greinke after the season, and other teams could not, so if they are able to trade him for more value than the draft picks they would receive, then I would be all for it. To me, "more value than the picks" would have to include a top prospect in the upper minors or a high upside MLB player in their first or second year. I'd hope Melvin wouldn't trade him for a lesser talented guy with 2-3 years or "team control" remaining.

 

The first calls I'd make would be to Taxes and Baltimore (assuming Baltimore is still leading the division) to see if Profar or Machado are available. Additionally, a team like Atlanta may be willing to trade some of their young starting pitching for someone like Greinke, Marcum or Hart. I don't know what the ultimate haul would be, but I'd hope that if we sell this season we end up with a long-term answer at SS and some MLB-ready pitching.

 

This is pretty much exactly what I would post almost word for word (so I suppose that means I think it is dead-on correct). The only thing I would add is that I think Profar might require more than just Greinke. It could be Greinke + K-Rod for Profar....

[paul253]

The only thing I would add is that I think Profar might require more than just Greinke. It could be Greinke + K-Rod for Profar....

 

Even though it's only half a season, Greinke is one of the best pitchers in baseball this year. He's young, a former Cy Young Winner, and a #1 pitcher. If Texas won't give us Profar straight up for Greinke then I'd move on. Milwaukee has too many holes to fill to be giving up two of their best trade chips for one prospect who won't be ready until 2014.

[jerichoholicninja]

The only shopping I think they should be doing with Greinke is house shopping in the Milwaukee area.

[Eye Black]

I would be surprised if Texas would be willing to deal Profar. He is a top-5 MLB prospect and could move to 2B or 3B in order to fit into the same infield as Elvis Andrus in a couple of years. Texas would have to be convinced that Greinke was the missing piece to a W.S. championship. That being said, if Feliz prognosis isn't looking very promising in July and the Roy Oswalt thing doesn't pan out maybe they will be desperate.

[ninja33]

I don't think Greinke is bringing in either Profar or Machado. Obviously you make that phone call (if and when it comes to that about a month from now), but I don't think you'll have a taker on the other end. I don't see those guys getting traded for a half season of a pitcher (even if that pitcher is awesome). if you insist on a SS, I think you have to move down the list a little bit and look at a guy like Jean Segura (if the Angels can get their heads above water, there's a lot of pressure for them to make the playoffs. holy cow imagine that rotation) or Andrelton Simmons (although I don't see the Braves looking to deal for pitcher, barring injury). The Red Sox have two solid prospects in Bogaerts or Iglesias (although his bat may never come around) and could use a starter. Not suggesting a 1 for 1 swap of Greinke with those guys, I just think they're more realistic targets and you can build a package from there.

 

I don't really see any of those guys as sure things though, and like I said I don't see the Rangers or Orioles parting with the guys who would be sure things...so I think you have to look past SS. Even though it's a position of depth at the moment, if Corey Hart isn't in the plans past 2013 (and to a lesser extent Gomez, Morgan, and Aoki), I think trading for an OF isn't the worst idea. I guess it depends on what you think of Gindl, but there's a pretty good chance the brewers have OF holes in the future.

 

But really though, they would just need to get back a player (preferably more) that projects to be a long term answer at any position except for LF and C. Those are the only spots with contracts past 2014, and if the guy they get back for Greinke is as good as we hope...they'll find a spot for his bat when the time comes. But get a top 50ish hitter with some lower minor/high upside pitchers.

 

And personally, I think the Brewers are going to go on a decent run in June and get close to .500 (look at that schedule, and some guys HAVE to bounce back, right?)...which in the NL Central, as well as with a 2nd wild card, will keep them within shouting distance of the playoffs (~4 games) and they won't sell. I don't know if this is me being optimistic because I still have faith in the team, or if it's pessimism because they likely won't make the playoffs but they'll come close enough that they decide to not trade a guy like Greinke and lose him.

[brewmann04]

I think the crew will keep Grienke even if it means losing Marcum and Wolf.

[HiAndTight]

If the Brewers are still down in the standings by late June/early July, I think they have to at least make some calls to see what other teams would offer. The Brewers could get comp picks for Greinke after the season, and other teams could not, so if they are able to trade him for more value than the draft picks they would receive, then I would be all for it. To me, "more value than the picks" would have to include a top prospect in the upper minors or a high upside MLB player in their first or second year. I'd hope Melvin wouldn't trade him for a lesser talented guy with 2-3 years or "team control" remaining.

 

The first calls I'd make would be to Taxes and Baltimore (assuming Baltimore is still leading the division) to see if Profar or Machado are available. Additionally, a team like Atlanta may be willing to trade some of their young starting pitching for someone like Greinke, Marcum or Hart. I don't know what the ultimate haul would be, but I'd hope that if we sell this season we end up with a long-term answer at SS and some MLB-ready pitching.

 

This is pretty much exactly what I would post almost word for word (so I suppose that means I think it is dead-on correct). The only thing I would add is that I think Profar might require more than just Greinke. It could be Greinke + K-Rod for Profar....

 

 

I agree. And I've mentioned those two players if they absolutely MUST trade Greinke. But to pry Machado from the O's, I'm thinking you might be looking at Hart and Greinke and perhaps paying some of the money. I think he's the top prospect in the minors right now with Profar second among position players. I'd guess that Bundy would be thee top prospect meaning the O's would probably want to have a small window to sign Greinke before they actually made the trade ensuring they'd have the pitching for the future. They've got a good young lineup, a LOT of #3/4 type pitchers, so if they could get Greinke and Bundy to front their rotation...it might be worth it for them.

 

With Texas I think it MIGHT be most likely we get Andrus than Profar. Profar's the ideal player for the Brewers. A guy who carried a .400 OBP the second half of last year with a .390 OBP for the YEAR. Is a GG caliber defender, and has some very good power.

 

 

So while I would actually prefer Profar, I think with the Rangers being so close the last two years to winning a WS, Grienke would easily make them the favorites to win it. So I agree Greinke+K-rod would get that done with us picking up maybe 5 million which is well worth it IMO.

 

I also floated the idea of perhaps trying to go even bigger with Texas by trading for Profar and Martin Perez. That may take a Greinke+Axford type trade, and as much as I like Axford, that might be a better trade yet. Though Perez isn't throwing very well thus far in Round Rock, he's still a 21 year old power arm in AAA.

[HiAndTight]

The only thing I would add is that I think Profar might require more than just Greinke. It could be Greinke + K-Rod for Profar....

 

Even though it's only half a season, Greinke is one of the best pitchers in baseball this year. He's young, a former Cy Young Winner, and a #1 pitcher. If Texas won't give us Profar straight up for Greinke then I'd move on. Milwaukee has too many holes to fill to be giving up two of their best trade chips for one prospect who won't be ready until 2014.

 

It's 2012 and Profar is excelling in AA. He could easily be in AAA by the All star break, start next year in AA and be up next season.

 

But even if he's NOT ready until 2014...so what? If we lose Greinke, guess what? We're not ready for anything until well after 2014 anyway. We'd be like the Cubs with Castro. Unless we locked him up like the Rays did Longoria, he'd be well ahead of our next potential window.

[HiAndTight]

I think the crew will keep Grienke even if it means losing Marcum and Wolf.

 

 

 

If they do I think they keep themselves as a legit contender for the foreseeable future.

 

Everything becomes a whole heckuva lot easier when you've got an MVP LF'er, a elite catcher(which it's a big early to call Lucroy, but it's certainly looking like it) a 1-2 punch with farm system chalk full of potential difference making pitchers.

 

So I never really thought CC was going to sign here. The Yankee's always made it known he was going to be a Yankee. Prince was always a bad sign. Everyone agreed on that. But with Greinke, I think he's a unique guy, and his performances in NY may dissuade teams like the Sox and Yankees from going after him. The Cubs would seem to have little interest. The Rangers have Hamilton who I think they'll pay. The Angels only have so much to spend.

 

We'll most certainly have to compete to sign him and I think on the FA market you're looking at 6 years and 140 million dollars or 5 years 120 with a 20 million dollar option or a 4.5 million dollar buyout would in this rare case be worth the long term risk.

[endaround]

The Rangers aren't paying Hamilton. Ryan talking about not getting a deal done in season? Yeah, he's gone. But like I've said, Ryan and Greinke don't seem like a good match so I don't see the Rangers as viable either as a trade or a team to sign Greinke after the season.

[Invader3K]

If it gets to be late June and the team is still in the basement, you just have to start shopping around Greinke (along with Marcum, K-Rod, etc). There is no point in trying to hold out hope Greinke is going to sign a long term deal at this point. He's going to break the bank in free agency with the way he's pitching this season.

[paul253]

It's 2012 and Profar is excelling in AA. He could easily be in AAA by the All star break, start next year in AA and be up next season.

 

To be fair the last time I looked at his stats he wasn't hitting as well as he is now. He's been hitting .325 over the last 10 games.

 

Yes he could be in AAA by the all star break, but he could hit .240 when he gets there. That's the thing with prospects. You never know. Greinke is a former Cy Young award winner with a sub 3 era and a 22-7 record in his last 29 decisions. Let's not sell him short. The main thing that would hold Texas back from trading Greinke for Profar is the fact that Greinke is going to be a free agent. If Greinke had 3 years left on his contract I doubt anyone here would consider trading him for Profar.....I know I wouldn't. So it's not a matter of Greinke not being a good enough player to acquire Profar. It's a matter of whether or not they want to trade for a player who only has half a season left on his contract. If they feel they can resign him and/or are desperate enough for an ace (which teams usually are around the trade deadline), they may just do that. As of now Texas already has a shortstop who is hitting .309 and is signed for 2 more years. Sure they could move one of them to second base but that would probably minimize their value some.

 

So yes, Profar is a good player but so is Greinke. Let's not sell him short and talk about trading him for a mid ceiling prospect. If we trade him I expect at least a pitcher with #1 or #2 potential or a position player who has all star potential. Definitely quality over quantity.

[JohnBriggs12]

There's already several teams drooling over Greinke. It's still too early to assume the Brewers will be completely out of it by July. A tweak here (Ransom) and a tweak there (another pitcher) and somehow Weeks rights the ship and they could be close enough in a weak division. Veras is starting to show signs he's the guy they thought they had and that will stabilize the pen.

 

They'd have to listen if a bidding war developed. If they are confident that Greinke really likes it in Milwaukee, they could deal him and bid on him in the FA market too. Sort of what Harry Dalton did with Jim Slaton back in the day. Dealt him to Detroit, for Oglivie, then got him back a year later. They do have money to spend on pitching if Marcum and Wolf leave also.

[sheetskout]

I think it's somewhat naive to think we are going to sign Greinke after this season and would not take that risk frankly. We can't bank on the placement of compensation picks at this point. Our payroll is at an all-time high and with pending arbitration raises I don't see us being able to afford the sure-to-be-competitive bidding for Zach even after losing Marcum and Wolf.

 

I could see the Indians being interested the longer they stay in 1st, but I'm not sure what the trading limitation would be for Francisco Lindor (can't remember when he signed last year).

[3and2Fastball]

Nolan Ryan is an extremely competitive individual. Sure, every GM in MLB is competitive, it is the nature of the beast, but Ryan (like Pete Rose, like Ty Cobb) is one of the most competitive humans in baseball history. And getting to the World Series and losing (especially the way they lost last season) is gnawing at Ryan.

 

He will absolutelly pull the trigger on a short-term rental if it takes the Rangers over the top. The thing is, Greinke might not be the most attractive piece at the deadline. If the Phillies are out of it (which they likely will be, it is now looking like Howard might miss the entire year) they will be willing to deal Hamels. We can argue Greinke vs Hamels till the cows come home, but Hamels will likely be looked at as more proven in the postseason and more of a "sure thing" to perform under pressure.

 

Last year's postseason might have devalued Greinke ever so slightly

[monty57]

Nolan Ryan is an extremely competitive individual. Sure, every GM in MLB is competitive, it is the nature of the beast, but Ryan (like Pete Rose, like Ty Cobb) is one of the most competitive humans in baseball history. And getting to the World Series and losing (especially the way they lost last season) is gnawing at Ryan.

 

He will absolutelly pull the trigger on a short-term rental if it takes the Rangers over the top. The thing is, Greinke might not be the most attractive piece at the deadline. If the Phillies are out of it (which they likely will be, it is now looking like Howard might miss the entire year) they will be willing to deal Hamels. We can argue Greinke vs Hamels till the cows come home, but Hamels will likely be looked at as more proven in the postseason and more of a "sure thing" to perform under pressure.

 

Last year's postseason might have devalued Greinke ever so slightly

 

A) I agree on Ryan. I don't understand why he'd dislike a Cy Young winner who throws mid-to-upper 90's heat and seems to have a good work ethic. He's quirky, but certainly effective.

 

B) Having Hamels on the market could increase the feeding frenzy. What would you do as a GM if your biggest competitor just traded his top prospect(s) for Hamels and Greinke was still on the market? How secure would you feel your job would be if you passed on Greinke to hold onto "some prospects" and you lost the division and missed the playoffs? How would the "casual fan" view your performance?

[3and2Fastball]

B) Having Hamels on the market could increase the feeding frenzy. What would you do as a GM if your biggest competitor just traded his top prospect(s) for Hamels and Greinke was still on the market? How secure would you feel your job would be if you passed on Greinke to hold onto "some prospects" and you lost the division and missed the playoffs? How would the "casual fan" view your performance?

 

Very true, if one of the Rangers' biggest AL competitors (Angels, Yankees, Tigers etc) trade for Hamels at the deadline, there will be all that much more pressure for the Rangers to trade for Greinke

[davego]

I would be far more fustrated if Zack left then I was when Prince signed with the Tigers...and I love Prince like everyone else. Sign him. Barring his arm falling off, his value will increase as other top-shelf pitchers also get paid.

[Eye Black]

But really though, they would just need to get back a player (preferably more) that projects to be a long term answer at any position except for LF and C. Those are the only spots with contracts past 2014, and if the guy they get back for Greinke is as good as we hope...they'll find a spot for his bat when the time comes. But get a top 50ish hitter with some lower minor/high upside pitchers.

 

The Tigers 3B prospect Nick Castellanos seems to fit this description. Obviously not a sure thing, but has a potentially high upside. He is off to a great start in High A this year and could be ready for the MLB level by the tail end of the Ramirez contract.

[reillymcshane]

If this team is out of it and we decide to deal Greinke, they could also consider contract dumps. A-Ram, even Weeks - if you're looking to completely rebuild and want to move long term committments.

 

I'd hate to see that, but it's a possibility if the team feels we won't contend for a few years.

[HiAndTight]

If this team is out of it and we decide to deal Greinke, they could also consider contract dumps. A-Ram, even Weeks - if you're looking to completely rebuild and want to move long term committments.

 

I'd hate to see that, but it's a possibility if the team feels we won't contend for a few years.

 

 

Both are better traded next off-season I believe.

 

Aram-If we trade him, we're going to eat 10 million dollars I believe. If he has the season he SHOULD have, .280/.350/.500-ish, then a team you would think would be willing to pay him 2 years and 20 million.

 

I BELIEVE we'll owe him 2 years and 15 million(someone correct me on that if I'm wrong, I didn't look, I just thought he was only getting 6 million this year).

 

Weeks-....nobody in the world is going to take him right now, and I don't know what's going on with him. He's been my favorite player from Day 1 and he never complains, but I think at some point, something is going to come out. He's just not in the game right now. He's been my favorite Brewer until Greinke was acquired. Love everything about the way he plays. But watching the game with my old man...he looks like a HiA prospect getting a Sept callup. I had to rewind and rewind a strikeout vs Sergio-whatever, the SU man for the Giants where he swung at a slider, really the only thing the guy throws(a good one, but still) and I paused it as Weeks swung and the ball went past, and he was literally 12-18 inches away from being able to reach the ball...and it wasn't in the dirt, it wasn't a great pitch.

 

He walked off the field with 2 outs. That's just not Rickie. He's struggled, but he's always been in it. Something's not right, and I could see a team taking a chance on him for 2-3 million a year as he looks right now if they have a -Izturis/Massonyet type hole but at 2nd base, but not much more. So we'd have to eat way more than to make that worth it.

 

 

I stand by my argument that we can't compete the next 3-4 years(best case) without Greinke, so I think in terms of cutting salary, the off-season for Aram when his season numbers balance out, maybe the same for Weeks if they do, but I have no confidence at this point. But right now, Hart, Wolf, K-Rod and MAYBE Marcum. I might offer him arbitration though. I think this is the last chance for a big contract and if he can get 5 years 60 million out there, I don't think he takes 1 year and 13.5-14 or whatever it may be. So holding onto him may be worth it.

 

But anyway, back to it, any contract at this point that's not a key piece to the long term rebuild IF Greinke is traded should be up for consideration. Heck, any player at all.

 

Axford could bring back a very valuable prospect in a trade one would think. And again, if you lose Greinke, by the time you're competitive again, Axford's getting expensive and I think we have enough pitching to scrounge up a closer. Not all these guys who are dominating in the minors will end up as starters.

 

Even guys like Kameron Loe, Veras could hold some value. I literally wouldn't be against trading one single player on the big league roster that's not a rookie outside of the obvious 4.

 

 

 

Again, there are only two great draft picks. #1 and #30. Either keep Greinke and carry on, or dump him and just totally rebuild all the way. Not half the way, no Wolf signings(which has been a good one), no vets like Ted Lilly, Marcum, etc..etc...maybe one year deals for Estrada type pitchers. As badly as I'd feel for Braun and Gallardo. We could also give Gallardo an extension...3 years 45 million so at least he'll be here for the next wave.

[HiAndTight]

The Rangers aren't paying Hamilton. Ryan talking about not getting a deal done in season? Yeah, he's gone. But like I've said, Ryan and Greinke don't seem like a good match so I don't see the Rangers as viable either as a trade or a team to sign Greinke after the season.

 

 

Again, I just don't see how you can make these types of statements, especially after proclaiming that Aram wouldn't get near 12 million a year in free agency which is what he got from us, and around what the Angels were offering.

 

And I can't possibly fathom why Ryan and Greinke wouldn't be a good match.

 

A team that's lost the last two world series.

Best lineup in baseball.

Have a ton of money coming in and are becoming on of the big spenders in baseball.

 

-Former Cy Young pitching as well as he's pitched in his entire career save for the first few months of his Cy Young year.

[HiAndTight]

The only thing I would add is that I think Profar might require more than just Greinke. It could be Greinke + K-Rod for Profar....

 

Even though it's only half a season, Greinke is one of the best pitchers in baseball this year. He's young, a former Cy Young Winner, and a #1 pitcher. If Texas won't give us Profar straight up for Greinke then I'd move on. Milwaukee has too many holes to fill to be giving up two of their best trade chips for one prospect who won't be ready until 2014.

 

 

Ok, and you think that with the picks you're going to get from the Rangers, you're picks are going to even approach the type of prospect that Profar is?

 

No, Profar is one of the top 3-4 prospects in the game right now, and he's a slick fielding SS who carried a .390 OBP last year as an 18 year old in HiA. He's a Starlin Castro type player who may be a Gold Glove Shortstop.

 

There's no bigger Greinke fan than I, but If K-Rod and a few million dollars is what it takes in addition to Greinke to get Profar, I couldn't be more fine with that.

 

Seriously, you're not getting ANYTHING for K-rod after the season. In season you might get a B-/C+ prospect. He's not dominating any longer. If you don't trade him, he's gone for nothing.

 

Greinke will get you a pick around 28 and very possibly 30, and then a supplemental pick. There is almost literally no chance(almost) that you're going to get 2 players who's value as big leaguers is even going to APPROACH what Profar can and will do.

 

You're talking about a prototypical leadoff hitter who can hit .300, draw a LOT of walks, is 19 years old at AA and playing at an exceptionally high level and could be a .400 OBP type guy while playing GG shortstop.

 

 

So I'm curious, if the Rangers ask for what I would consider the measly addition of K-Rod+a few million to offset his contract in addition to Greinke and you say no, who ARE you going to get?

 

You gonna get Dylan Bundy from the Orioles? Machado? The #1 and #2 prospects currently in baseball in my view,and Profar might even be ahead of Machado as he's a GG caliber defender and Machado may well be a 3rd basemen...which isn't to say I wouldn't take him, but give me the .400 OBP leadoff hitter over the guy who has to move over to 3rd base anyday.