What do we do with Maldonado?

[Invader3K]

Randy Wolf has a 5.80 ERA and a 1.57 WHIP this season. I really doubt any teams are really going to be looking to trade for him.

[rluzinski]

I don't know how many PA's and game starts it takes to get a true barometer of a rookie's hitting potential but in my mind, he's proven himself.

 

Through his first 28 starts and 111 PA, he had a .245/.303/.391/.693 line and proved that he probably needed more time in the minors. It was essentially one series that proved he now deserves to stay in the majors. The statistical results of 137 PA isn't close to enough PA's to get an accurate estimate of a rookie's hitting potential. You can prove it with pretty simple math. Way to much error in any kind of estimate. Heck, a whole year is even suspect. The sophomore slump syndrome is completely a result of a batter over performing during his rookie year.

 

The ironic part is that he had exactly 138 PA in AAA this year. His line there stands at .198/.270/.347/.617 for the year. I wouldn't take much stock in that, since it's such a small sample. What do you think it proved?

 

Now, if you want to counter that it goes beyond the numbers and he just looks good up there, I think he's looked good as well. It's hard for any batter to look bad while batting .283 though, isn't it? Our observations are biased by the results. Throw in a few memorably long AB's and it's hard to resist the urge to get excited. I don't think it adds to our accuracy in estimating his future performance, however.

 

We can use subjective phrases like "proven himself" and deserves to stay in the majors" all day long. The real question is, how do we project Maldonado to perform in the majors going forward? ZiPS thinks .238/.298/.340 is our best guess. That is based almost completely on his minor league stats, since he has virtually no major league experience. Minor league projections are notoriously not precise. I wouldn't venture to guess, myself. Probably not much better than that ZiPS projection, though. What do you think?

[slappzilla]

I don't see how any can argue with trading Kotteras, seriously.

[pacopete4]

I don't see how any can argue with trading Kotteras, seriously.

 

I can. Who the heck gives up anything for him? I honestly don't get what management sees in him. Is it only because he is a lefty and happens to run into one, somehow, here and there? His catching is mediocre and he walks at times. Yippeeeeee!! I wouldnt trade a bag of balls for him.

[slappzilla]

Someone will give something up for him. He has big XBH power (nice slugging %) and takes a walk with the best of them. He's got reps at 1B too.

 

I wouldn't mind trading Maldanado for a bigger return, assuming the Brewers can get it, but law of the land says they'll dump Kotteras and keep Maldanado.

[FullMetalCardigan]

 

Through his first 28 starts and 111 PA, he had a .245/.303/.391/.693 line and proved that he probably needed more time in the minors. It was essentially one series that proved he now deserves to stay in the majors. The statistical results of 137 PA isn't close to enough PA's to get an accurate estimate of a rookie's hitting potential. You can prove it with pretty simple math. Way to much error in any kind of estimate. Heck, a whole year is even suspect. The sophomore slump syndrome is completely a result of a batter over performing during his rookie year.

 

The ironic part is that he had exactly 138 PA in AAA this year. His line there stands at .198/.270/.347/.617 for the year. I wouldn't take much stock in that, since it's such a small sample. What do you think it proved?

 

Now, if you want to counter that it goes beyond the numbers and he just looks good up there, I think he's looked good as well. It's hard for any batter to look bad while batting .283 though, isn't it? Our observations are biased by the results. Throw in a few memorably long AB's and it's hard to resist the urge to get excited. I don't think it adds to our accuracy in estimating his future performance, however.

 

We can use subjective phrases like "proven himself" and deserves to stay in the majors" all day long. The real question is, how do we project Maldonado to perform in the majors going forward? ZiPS thinks .238/.298/.340 is our best guess. That is based almost completely on his minor league stats, since he has virtually no major league experience. Minor league projections are notoriously not precise. I wouldn't venture to guess, myself. Probably not much better than that ZiPS projection, though. What do you think?

 

That's all well reasoned. When I say he's "proven himself" I'm referring to his plate approach. He doesn't over swing (Brooks Conrad, Carlos Gomez), he hits away and up the middle, he's been pretty good at working counts. It's more of an eyeball test. And I'm sure everyone from the minor league system that gets called up wants to stay in the bigs but I simply can't remember anyone being as gung-ho and seizing the opportunity the way Maldonado has. Hell, he's already bunted for 3 hits. How many catchers do that?

 

So where do I think he'll wind up? Maybe I'm optimistic but I think he'll hit .255 to .260 and have an OBP over .300. The question is will he and the franchise benefit from him playing every day in AAA or 2 of every 5 starts in the majors, which is realistically what he'd get when Lucroy comes back. I'm in the camp that says him seeing MLB grade pitching, albeit at the cost of playing time, benefits him more long term.

[adambr2]

I still don't understand how people think Wolf is tradeable.

 

If Melvin got a call tomorrow saying, "Excuse me Doug, but we're looking to unload one of our soft-tossing lefty starters. He's got an ERA near 6 this season and he'll be 36 next month. He's also owed another $5M this year. What can you offer him for us?"

 

What do you think would be the appropriate way to respond to that?

[slappzilla]

lol

[rluzinski]

If Melvin got a call tomorrow saying, "Excuse me Doug, but we're looking to unload one of our soft-tossing lefty starters. He's got an ERA near 6 this season and he'll be 36 next month. He's also owed another $5M this year. What can you offer him for us?"

Let's look at this objectively:

 

Randy Wolf:

2010: 215 IP, 4.17 ERA, 4.85 FIP

2011: 212 IP, 3.69 ERA, 4.29 FIP

2012: 106 IP, 5.60 ERA, 4.45 FIP

 

And his ZiPS rest-of-season projection:

2012: 80 IP, 4.16 ERA, 4.56 FIP

 

He's 35 years old but his average fastball velocity has been exactly the same the last 3 seasons (88.4 MPH), so I don't see anything to suggest he's aging any worse than any other 35 year old pitcher.

 

I think that projected 4.16 ERA would be a hard sell but I believe Melvin could easily sell Wolf as a 4.5 ERA workhorse, which is worth around $10 mil/year, putting the worth of Wolf's projected performance for the rest of the season at around $4.5 mil. Wolf is owed the balance of his $9.5 mil salary ($4.2 mil). He also get's a $250k bonus for being traded. and $125k for reaching 190 and 200 IP. Finally, he has a $10 mil club option for 2013 with a $1.5 mil buy out.

 

Let's assume the other team has no interest in resigning Wolf and he pitches just under 200 innings total this year:

 

$4.4 mil (balance of 2012 salary)

$.25 mil (trade bonus)

$.125 mil (IP bonus)

$1.5 mil (buyout)

------------------

$6.28 mil

 

Damn, he's owed a lot. In that scenario, I'm not sure Melvin could get a middling prospect even if he kicked in all the cash.

[zzzmanwitz]

Maldonado still has a lot to prove before I start to believe he is the real thing. I would prefer he went down to AAA to play every day to get more ABs. He has had a good month and a half at the major league level (still only average offensively for a major league catcher), but his slash line on the year is still only .237/.297/.379/.677. I am glad that he hasn't been a black hole in the lineup, but Lucroy is our guy and should be starting 4 out of 5 days when healthy. Kottaras isn't great, in fact, he's not even good, but name a team that has a really good backup catcher.

[Marc Newfield of Dreams]

His bat has been a pleasant surprise, but what I love about Maldonado is the way he handles himself. Rookie catchers can be in a tough spot with veteran pitchers, but he is confident and looks like he belongs back there. Big fan of his play so far, he's sure given Melvin and co. something to think about with Kottaras next week.

[thablingster]

My guess is they might try to move Kottaras. If they don't the option I'd consider is keeping Kottaras and DFA'ing Ishikawa. Kottaras can play first base in a pinch, as can Ransom. They have 4 outfielders and Corey Hart, who started the season as an outfielder.

 

If you're going to have a primary left handed pinch hitter off the bench I'd rather it be Kottaras and it isn't even close.

[endaround]

Kottaras has almost no value and likely can't pass a trade physical.

[DHonks]

I doubt Kottaras is still hurt. Ishikawa being DFA'd sounds good. Kottaras has OBP skills and power...Ishikawa has neither

[AZBrewCrew]

So, with Lucroy coming back tomorrow, will Maldy be back in AAA? Or...? thoughts?

[TURBO]

Kottaras has OBP skills and power...

 

When will those skills be applied?

 

He has been a non-factor since April. I think too many people are remembering that month, and forgetting the fact that he is a horrible catcher defensively, and below average with the bat. To me, he has no value. If we can find a sucker to trade him to, DO IT NOW!

[MNBrew]

Turbo, I couldn't agree more. Kottaras has done mostly nothing since both he & Lucroy were the only good-hitting Brewers back in April.

 

I like what Kottaras COULD do off the bench much better than Ishikawa (in an ideal world, they're both gone). But Ishikawa's clearly got a much better body of work over the course of the season, GK9's April notwithstanding -- which scares me!

[MNBrew]

...And then I'll turn around & contradict myself because I'd give serious consideration to that idea someone floated of Aoki & Maldonado as the core of a trade for a good pitcher from TB.

 

Maldonado might net us Davis, who at this point is only pitching in relief.

 

On the other hand, Maldonado's got better potential than GK, so it's not that I'm in favor of moving MM just to do so. But MM just may be one chip we can afford to move & who's also appealing for his very low cost factor.

[gregmag]

I just said this in another thread, but I'm not sure I see the percentage in moving Maldonado, or Aoki since you brought him up. Of course if somebody offers the moon, you trade anyone, and I'm not saying these guys are world-beaters. But they're young (well, in Aoki's case at least "not old"), cost-controlled players who put wins on the board. Those are exactly the kinds of players we'll need to be collecting over the coming rebuilding phase. I think we should treat guys like that as presumptive (not conclusive) keepers. To say it another way: despite our experience as Brewers fans, rebuilding doesn't necessarily take 20 years. This is the NL Central in the two-Wild Card era. We may realistically be ready to contend in 2014. Heck, if we get a bunch of lucky breaks, we might even find ourselves in the hunt next year, although I doubt it. Guys like Aoki and Maldonado could very easily play meaningful roles on the next good Brewers team.

[GoToHelfaer]

I agree Greg. Maldonado is amazing defensively with a rocket arm and has shown a small sample size of being able to handle the bat. I think you have to continue to get Maldonado at-bats to see just how he'll grow offensively. If that's in Triple-A then so be it. If Maldonado proves he can be consistent with the bat I would be all for Lucroy learning First Base.

[Baldkin]

I agree Greg. Maldonado is amazing defensively with a rocket arm and has shown a small sample size of being able to handle the bat. I think you have to continue to get Maldonado at-bats to see just how he'll grow offensively. If that's in Triple-A then so be it. If Maldonado proves he can be consistent with the bat I would be all for Lucroy learning First Base.

 

Lucroy's value is as a great defensive catcher, and an above average bat for a catcher. He would be a poor firstbaseman and a below average 1B bat. He has no value at 1B.

 

He's also said himself: "I'd be terrible anywhere in the IF. I'm a catcher."

 

Anyway, Kottaras has a .370 OBP since the end of April. That's better than almost anyone on the team. I'd rather have him hitting 2nd vs RHP than the amazing Carlos .280 OBP Gomez.

[igor67]

In an environment where it is possible that both young players and defense might be overvalued, it is possible that one could get more for Maldonado then he currently has value to the team. I don't know that I would spend a lot of time looking for such a deal given some more pressing and obvious choices for deals to be made, but in many ways Maldonado is the old anti-MoneyBall player, which means he is the new over valued asset for those looking for buzzwords. A lot of the potential value in this hypothetical transaction would involve getting a starting player at a position of need vs. holding Maldonado as a above average back-up.

[TooLiveBrew]

Lucroy's value is as a great defensive catcher, and an above average bat for a catcher. He would be a poor firstbaseman and a below average 1B bat. He has no value at 1B.

 

He's also said himself: "I'd be terrible anywhere in the IF. I'm a catcher."

Thank you for making this point; it really is an important one. However, I'll nitpick with you in that Lucroy is not a great defensive catcher. I would actually rate him out much closer to reversing your adjectives, although I wouldn't call his bat "great", even for a catcher. I think of him as being a good offensive catcher, and an above-avg. defender. His lack of arm strength really cuts into his defensive value for me, even though he does compensate for it well with good footwork. And then he basically does nothing else wrong on D, but I value a catcher's arm very highly. And actually, the fact that Maldonado might even be better on D beyond just his throwing arm is really impressive, since obviously I think highly of Lucroy.

 

Aside: I'd also like to start typing out his name "lUcROY" every time I see "LuCroy" (I didn't see that in this thread, just thought of it while typing out his name)