Standings at the Break

[Bombers]

The Brewers have not lived up to expectations this year. They are a good team, with plenty of talent, who has just been on the short end of the stick. If I had to point to one thing, it would be easy to look no further than the bullpen. They have lost too many games for us. If our pen repeated last year's performance, we could easily be 45-40, instead of 40-45.

 

The bad news for the Brewers, is not only the fact that they are 8 games out, but that they have a losing record. If we look to history, those odds are clearly against us. As I have been reading on here, that some posters have optimism (I do as I stated before, they are a good team / just having bad "luck") and some posters don't. Some refer to the Brewers as needing a miracle to win the division. I would lean more toward this than leaning away. Take a look at this glance at the standings from 2009 - 2011. It shows each year, sorting each division based on record near the break. I then highlighted and bolded the teams who won the division. (Asterisk for the wild cards)

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AmICjtzcczp0dDBoaGRJRm9YYUc0YkJhQTF0YnB0UHc

 

In the past 3 years, no team has had a losing record at the break, and made the playoffs. None. Zero. Zilch. And I would assume a small sample like this, would still be pretty reflective if you went 10/20/30 years back. Not that there would be none, but probably less than 5%.

 

The wildcard. Yes, there is a SIGNIFICANT change this year. The extra wild card. Does that change the odds to make the playoffs? No doubt. They have a chance at a wild card birth, but overall, Wild Card or Division winner, the odds are certainly against us.

 

One last point I will make is, unlike other teams with losing records, this Brewers team had realistic expectations to not only finish with a winning record but make the playoffs. While a true miracle would be the 2012 Royals making the playoffs, the Brewers making it would still be pretty historic based on the position they have put themselves in.

 

As always, let's go Brewers!!!

[logan82]

How are those Phillies doing?

[Bombers]

37-50 is a pretty bad turn from last years 102-60

[trwi7]

Three games into the 9 game stretch that would determine if we are "in the race" and the Brewers haven't gained any ground on the division lead.

[pacopete4]

All you can keep doing is winning series. Gotta now take 2 of 3 from the Cards. Set themselves up for the Reds

[igor67]

They did however gain ground on the other two teams ahead of them. It's good to keep chasing the division lead, but the most likely scenario for them having a big comeback in the second half was always chasing down the wildcard teams. Wit the Reds sweeping they might not have picked up ground on the division lead, but if the Brewers swept the Cards now they'd only be a 1/2 game behind them, which would obviously be a pretty big turn around in less than a week.

[Baldkin]

They did however gain ground on the other two teams ahead of them. It's good to keep chasing the division lead, but the most likely scenario for them having a big comeback in the second half was always chasing down the wildcard teams. Wit the Reds sweeping they might not have picked up ground on the division lead, but if the Brewers swept the Cards now they'd only be a 1/2 game behind them, which would obviously be a pretty big turn around in less than a week.

 

Yes, it's so much more likely they outplay 8 teams to get to the wildcard than 3 teams to get the division title. Sigh.

[Ennder]

 

Yes, it's so much more likely they outplay 8 teams to get to the wildcard than 3 teams to get the division title. Sigh.

 

Considering the 2nd wild card probably will require 5 or 6 fewer wins than the division, yeah it is more likely.

[owbc]

The problem with wild cards is that even if you get one, your odds of reaching the real postseason are still only 50%. And unfavorable pitching matchups in the NLDS on top of that.

 

It's definitely not worth sacrificing the future to go for one of those wild card spots.

 

Of course any team sitting below .500 in mid-July should think twice about making temporary acquisitions. If the move helps the team in 2013 and beyond, then they should go for it.

[jerichoholicninja]

The problem with wild cards is that even if you get one, your odds of reaching the real postseason are still only 50%. And unfavorable pitching matchups in the NLDS on top of that.

 

It's definitely not worth sacrificing the future to go for one of those wild card spots.

 

Of course any team sitting below .500 in mid-July should think twice about making temporary acquisitions. If the move helps the team in 2013 and beyond, then they should go for it.

 

Your odds of winning each round in the post season is 50:50, so why bother trying to get there anyway?

[igor67]

I think it is a mistake to assume that anything of substantial value will be traded again for this year even if the Brewers do go on a run and Melvin decides to hold. It's not like SS's have suddenly started growing on trees. I think we have a decent stable of gritty IF, so there doesn't seem to be much need there. They only thing that makes any sense is a fresh bullpen arm, and even then it wouldn't be a closer type, so the price in terms of prospects would likely be pretty modest. So I'm not really sure where the concern about mortgaging the future is coming from.