Dodgers interested in Aramis Ramirez

[endaround]

If people think Ramirez's contract is bad, they better never look at that second extension Braun signed...

[SRB]

If people think Ramirez's contract is bad, they better never look at that second extension Braun signed...

I think Ryan Braun is just a tad better than Aramis Ramirez.

[logan82]

I wasn't thrilled with the first Braun extension let alone the second. We are going to be paying him long after he is gone.

[yoyo49]

I wasn't thrilled with the first Braun extension let alone the second. We are going to be paying him long after he is gone.

 

You'd rather be paying him more than his current contract during his arbitration years and watching him walk via free agency after next season?

[brewmann04]

People are not complaining about Braun deal.

[Oldcity]

First Braun extension was great. Second one wasn't. Ramirez wasn't either. Don't see why it's one or another.

[brewmann04]

Why do guys feel like Braun deal was no good. We get to keep a superstar here instead of losing him to free agency.

[GB12]

There is no amount of money we could have paid Braun that would upset me.

[NievesNoNO]

Why do guys feel like Braun deal was no good. We get to keep a superstar here instead of losing him to free agency.

 

I have no friggin idea what people are talking about on this one. How as a Brewer's fan can you not like the Braun extension? He's taking significantly less money to stay as opposed to ever test free agency before the age of 36. Every single one of those years he makes less then any one year of what Fielder just got paid per season. They have a true superstar in this game signed until the age of 36. Is 30 the new 50? Braun will be plenty productive even at 36 to warrant what he'll be getting.

 

Ramirez is being paid fairly, that said if you decide you're selling then it makes sense to move him if you can.

[JosephC]

Ramirez will not be paid 16 million in 2014. There are many sources out there that states it but 6 million of that 16 million is deferred. That 6 million will get paid in 2 separate 3 million dollar installments, one in 2017 and one in 2018. Also, if the 2015 buyout is used it will get paid in 2 separated 2 million dollar installments, one in 2015 and and one in 2016.

 

The breakdown of the actual payments in the Ramirez deal are as follows:

2012 = 6 million

2013 = 10 million

2014 = 10 million

2015 = 2 million (buyout) OR 14 million if playing for the Brewers (mutual option)

2016 = 2 million (buyout - not paid if Ramirez plays for Brewers in 2015)

2017 = 3 million (deferred payment)

2018 = 3 million (deferred payment)

Guaranteed = 3 years, 36 million that could reach 4 years, 46 million if Ramirez plays for Milwaukee in 2015

[igor67]

At this point the Brewers guessed well and picked up an incredible value in Ramirez. One can quibble productively about which summary value statistic is best, but they all get to about the same answer as long as they make some attempt to account for position, defense and offense. So by Fan graphs WAR Ramirez has already posted 2.2 for the season. His projected finish is 4.1 ( again given his track record and different systems one could argue at length, but the best estimate for the rest of the season is still going to be about 4). During the last offseason teams paid $5.5 million dollars (median) per WAR on the open market. Which if you put those 2 together means Ramirez is on pace to generate about $ 22 million dollars of value this season. You can start playing with the numbers in all kinds of fun ways.

The Brewers paid on average 4.8 million/WAR projected to FA. This yields about 19.5 million dollars in value for this season. The best any team did was $3.3 million per free agent WAR, which is still $13.5 million in value. Certainly the contract escalates in payout somewhat, but there is also on going free agent inflation, which makes hitting $10 million dollars in value each of the next two years pretty easy for a hitter of Aramis' level. Inflation is hard for us to adjust to because most of have a value perception in terms of contracts that lags what teams are actually paying. It wasn't that long ago that 10 million a year was for a perenial All-star, not an average starter. The reality is that those are the costs on the FA market. Certainly the Brewers can't go crazy in that market, but they do need to acquire talent, and doing so only by the draft and waiver wire types while running a large surplus doesn't really help in the long run either.

[trwi7]

Why do guys feel like Braun deal was no good. We get to keep a superstar here instead of losing him to free agency.

 

Age 32: $19M

Age 33: $19M

Age 34: $19M

Age 35: $18M

Age 36: $16M

Age 37: $4M

 

Now if you think Braun is going to keep doing what he's doing well into his mid 30s, then he's a good deal. If you think he'll fall off as he exits his prime, then the deal will look bad.

[dlk9s]

Yeah, there's a risk with the second Braun extension, but sometimes you have to take those risks. And if you're going to take a risk with someone, you take it with a guy like Braun. And sure, those salaries near the end are high, but as has been said, they are almost certainly lower than he would command as a free agent. He might get hurt, yes, but teams can't be scared of that with every star player or they'd never keep anyone (pitchers I see as different animals). And there's a chance his skills might rapidly decline, but I don't think there's any reason to believe he'll just drop off a cliff. Maybe he won't be "worth" $18 or $19 million eventually, but the potential overpay is just a tax you have to pay to keep a rare talent on your team.

 

Longevity aside, the guy is already the greatest Brewer of all time. Once he plays through his contract, it will be official.

 

And HUGE lol at hating the first extension.

[logan82]

as has been said, they are almost certainly lower than he would command as a free agent

That is sort of the whole point though. We shouldn't pay FA dollars or close to it on declining years of players.

[gregmag]

Braun, right now, is probably worth $25 million based on his productivity. (See igor's excellent post above on Ramirez for context.) We've signed him to a long-term deal that will pay him less than $20 million in his mid-30s. He certainly should decline during that period. Then again, he has a ridiculously broad skill set -- he does everything well offensively -- so he's about as good a bet at that age as a player can possibly be. In addition, salaries will inflate between now and then. On top of all the good baseball logic, he's now looking like a probable HOFer and franchise icon who will appeal to fans even if / when he and / or the team underperform. I think his extensions were both good moves.

[Oldcity]

 

And HUGE lol at hating the first extension.

Yeah, that was a head-scratcher. That was a great deal for the Brewers. The second one was a great deal for Braun.

[Invader3K]

Anyone criticizing the Braun extension probably isn't much of a Brewers fan, or hasn't been a Brewers fan for very long. Ryan Braun is a once in a generation type talent that very few teams see come around often. You don't let a guy like that ever walk if you can possibly help it.

[Tedaldtada]

Anyone criticizing the Braun extension probably isn't much of a Brewers fan, or hasn't been a Brewers fan for very long. Ryan Braun is a once in a generation type talent that very few teams see come around often. You don't let a guy like that ever walk if you can possibly help it.

 

It is pretty clear that the Brewers should sign 25 guys to 3 year 12 million dollar deals.

 

We will never get burned by a bad contract again! And think of all of the surplus value!

 

Of course, we would be fielding a team of 25 Jerry Hairston Jr.'s.

[igor67]

A simple comparison that has some value in this case is to look at what teams paid for the big 3 hitters this offseason (Pujols, Prince, and Votto). Votto is the only one out hitting Braun right now. Braun in his mid 30's at 19 million is not a steal, but it is pretty good value, and there is value to the team in having a home grown Brewer lifer. People do like that and it does in fact let people hold onto that hometwon loyalty a little bit.

[Warning Track Power]

A simple comparison that has some value in this case is to look at what teams paid for the big 3 hitters this offseason (Pujols, Prince, and Votto). Votto is the only one out hitting Braun right now. Braun in his mid 30's at 19 million is not a steal, but it is pretty good value, and there is value to the team in having a home grown Brewer lifer. People do like that and it does in fact let people hold onto that hometwon loyalty a little bit.

 

+1

 

One of the major reasons why I struggle with certain players leaving. Fielder's contract with Detroit was ridiculous and blew our reported offer away but I would like to believe that astute players such as Ryan Braun recognize the uniqueness of being the face or faces of the franchise and the notoriety you receive by being that guy. Look at the way Robin Yount is revered versus the way Paul Molitor is perceived (Not getting into the Bando lowball, just using an example). Fielder is different because of the immense difference in contract but by leaving Milwaukee he became just another guy in Detroit while Ryan Braun could retire tomorrow and still be the new Robin Yount. I for one would place a very high dollar amount on being the face of a franchise regardless of who or where that franchise is.

[scuttlebutts]

Excuse me, is the season over? Some of these trades that are posted on here would only make sence if there was nothing left to play for this year.

[monty57]

Excuse me, is the season over? Some of these trades that are posted on here would only make sence if there was nothing left to play for this year.

 

We can either play for the very small chance that we make the playoffs this year, in which case we will probably be terrible for the next five years or so, or we can write this season off due to injuries and bad play and hope to make the coming years better.

 

I came into this season hoping we could win another division title and maybe even make the World Series. At this point, the odds of that happening are pretty slim. We have about two weeks left before the trade deadline, so we need to make a decision pretty soon as to which path we're going to take.

[brwrsfan]

Excuse me, is the season over? Some of these trades that are posted on here would only make sence if there was nothing left to play for this year.

 

Pretty much. Sure, they still have a chance, but it's pretty small. Realistically, they need to win probably 8-9 of their next 10 games (including a minimum series win against the Reds), just to get sorta close again. Sure, it could happen, but other than the Dodgers series, this team hasn't shown it's even remotely capable of doing that so people are just looking ahead a week or two here.

[logan82]

I came into this season hoping we could win another division title and maybe even make the World Series. At this point, the odds of that happening are pretty slim. We have about two weeks left before the trade deadline, so we need to make a decision pretty soon as to which path we're going to take.

That's where I am. Everything being equal I wouldn't mind seeing what we can do. As of right now, things are not equal. We are a significant amount of games out of 1st place and the wild card. Time to fold the cards and walk away till next year.

[trwi7]

Excuse me, is the season over? Some of these trades that are posted on here would only make sence if there was nothing left to play for this year.

 

Technically no. Realistically yes.