2nd half optimism!!

[TooLiveBrew]

I respect that your info has come from good sources, and I certainly don't disagree that the Brewers don't have one of the better systems in MLB. However, the system has come a long way in just a season or two, and frankly I'd be surprised if the Brewers would still grade out so lowly at this point in the season (obv. all the rankings you cite were pre-season). Also, Keith Law sucks.

 

Just look at the Huntsville offense if you want a reason to feel better -- Morris (.908 OPS, probably the top contender for SL MVP at this point), Khris Davis (1.013 OPS... no, that's not a typo), Kentrail Davis (.920 second half OPS so far), Gennett... Hiram Burgos has had a great season on the mound (1.94 ERA) so far, including a 1 ER CG performance last night.

 

Thornburg & Fiers have graduated to MLB. Wily Peralta seems to have turned his season around (3.58 ERA over his past 10 starts). Mark Rogers also looks to have found something -- 4.58 ERA last 10 starts, but drops to 3.19 if you throw out a 10 ER implosion on June 10th. His last three starts have amounted to 19 IP, 9 H, 5 BB, 20 K, 0.95 ERA.

 

That's only scratching the surface of the farm system, and obviously there are guys who've been disappointing, too. But I'd be willing to bet that pre-2013, the Brewers will rank significantly higher in those system ranking pieces.

[FVBrewerFan]

Do we have a Braun or Fielder in the system? Probably not. But plenty of reason for optimism.

 

Don't you mean blind optimism?

 

We don't have anyone considered among the game's top prospects. The top rated guy, Peralta is throwing to a 1.65 WHIP and 5.04 ERA in AAA. And you're touting Mark Rogers (!) because of 3 starts. The rest of the year he's been horrible.

 

The major league roster is loaded with players at or past their primes.

 

So I have forgotten about optimism.

 

Is Ryan Braun going to have even one more postseason in a Brewers uniform? I can't see how that could happen.

 

 

I'm not concerned about top prospect lists or various rankings of farm systems. That information is almost always looking back, instead of forward. Prime example, your comment that Peralta is the top prospect. That was true in February, not today. Lots of top prospects flame out, lots of lessor ranked prospects shine. So I'm not that concerned what Baseball America thinks.

 

Rogers needed time to get his velocity up, his innings up, and just get back in the groove again. Perfect example of how you need to look at the whole story when evaluating a player. Burgos isn't on any "expert's" top prospect list. Yet he's been dominant all year. Yes, dominant. Fiers was nowhere near a top prospect and has been outstanding.

 

THAT'S why I'm optimistic. We don't need 30 of these guys to be key contributors, just a handful. And there's every reason to believe we have that in the system.

[pebadger]

When it comes to the farm system, it's nice to have 'prospects' that are recognized as such by everyone, but in the end what matters is having established 'players'. Prospects are nice in that you can trade them for other organization's players Prospects are also more likely to become players (and stars) than the guys who make up the rest of the system, but you're still only dealing in likelihood. Nobody really thought too much of Maldanado as much of a 'prospect', but it looks like he's a player.

 

In the end, a team needs stars, but it also needs a bunch of solid players. I don't care if those guys were 'prospects' or if they just become players as a result of player development. If there's one beef I have with Milwaukee's farm system, as opposed to some others, it's that the system has been too dependant on high profile prospects and light on general player development. Seems like that's exactly where they're going to need to excel if they want to build from within in the medium-term.

[JimH5]

Just look at the Huntsville offense if you want a reason to feel better -- Morris (.908 OPS, probably the top contender for SL MVP at this point), Khris Davis (1.013 OPS... no, that's not a typo), Kentrail Davis (.920 second half OPS so far), Gennett... Hiram Burgos has had a great season on the mound (1.94 ERA) so far, including a 1 ER CG performance last night.

 

Thornburg & Fiers have graduated to MLB. Wily Peralta seems to have turned his season around (3.58 ERA over his past 10 starts). Mark Rogers also looks to have found something -- 4.58 ERA last 10 starts, but drops to 3.19 if you throw out a 10 ER implosion on June 10th. His last three starts have amounted to 19 IP, 9 H, 5 BB, 20 K, 0.95 ERA.

 

That's only scratching the surface of the farm system, and obviously there are guys who've been disappointing, too. But I'd be willing to bet that pre-2013, the Brewers will rank significantly higher in those system ranking pieces.

 

I will grant you that Morris is having a fine season and fine minor league career. He looks to have some promise, though as a major league 1st baseman, he will have to be a good hitter if he wants to stick.

 

Kentrail Davis is 24 and in AA he has a .401 SLG in 86 games. He has 87 Ks in 317 ABs. What is his upside in the majors? Is he going to be better than Aoki or Morgan or Gomez?

 

Khris Davis is having a nice stretch, but he turns 25 in the offseason. Most good players are already in the majors at 25. Corey Hart was good in the Southern League at 21. Is Khris Davis going to be a better major leaguer than Hart?

 

Is Scooter Gennett going to be a substantial major leaguer? He's not a burner and he doesn't have any power. He hasn't hit lefties this year. Doesn't that project as a #8 hitter on a mediocre team? Or a bench guy on a good team?

 

And Burgos is having a fine season, but again, he turns 25 in a few days and he's pitching in AA. Is he just older than his competitors? And his great outing was against the team with the fewest runs scored in the league.

 

I'm not completely dismissive of the farm system. Maldanado is a complete surprise and could play for a long time. Fiers has been remarkable. But with what looks like a huge turnover in roster spots from this year to next, I just can't see this system being able to adequately fill those holes with players capable of being contributors on a playoff team.

 

I think we're in for a long slog.

[TooLiveBrew]

And Burgos is having a fine season, but again, he turns 25 in a few days and he's pitching in AA. Is he just older than his competitors? And his great outing was against the team with the fewest runs scored in the league.

 

I guess you can just toss out his sub-2 ERA on the season then, too... ? He doesn't project to be a top of the rotation guy, but I think you're being overly harsh on him, as well as your overall analysis.

 

 

I'm not completely dismissive of the farm system. Maldanado is a complete surprise and could play for a long time. Fiers has been remarkable. But with what looks like a huge turnover in roster spots from this year to next, I just can't see this system being able to adequately fill those holes with players capable of being contributors on a playoff team.

 

The thing is, though, Maldonado isn't a complete surprise -- he just didn't come with the Top Prospect™ label. And Fiers is a perfect example of why not to be down on Burgos's breakout season.

 

I don't disagree that the system lacks All-Star caliber talent, but it's not as dire a situation as you make it out to be. That will especially be true if Melvin is able to hit on a Greinke trade.

[logan82]

Once a guy hits 25 in the minors he obviously turns into a pumpkin. No good player has ever been in the minors once they turn 25.

[JimH5]

I guess you can just toss out his sub-2 ERA on the season then, too... ? He doesn't project to be a top of the rotation guy, but I think you're being overly harsh on him, as well as your overall analysis.

 

Congrats to him on getting Southern League hitters out. But if he's not a top of the rotation guy, then what should we expect? Will he be better than Marcum? Will he be a better than average major leaguer? Is he someone who can get major league hitters out in the postseason?

 

I don't disagree that the system lacks All-Star caliber talent. . .

 

And therein lies my lack of optimism.

 

Every organization has guys that they can churn into roster fillers. And too often, we have seen even top Brewer minor leaguers turn into pedestrian major leaguers or worse (Bill Spiers, Ron Belliard, Brad Nelson, Billy Jo Robidoux, Antone Williamson, Matt LaPorta, Jeff D'Amico).

 

We can't buy All-Stars, so we have to make them. And I'm not confident that we can make enough of them to get the Brewers to 88 wins or more.

 

I'm truly glad that you see a better future than I do. If everyone was as grouchy and doubtful as me, it would be boring. And I do hope you're right that these guys I've deemed too old to be real prospects, actually are. It appears that we're about to find out.

[JimH5]

Once a guy hits 25 in the minors he obviously turns into a pumpkin. No good player has ever been in the minors once they turn 25.

 

I'm guessing that was meant to be in blue. . .and of course there are guys who spent time in the minors at 25 and then became good major leaguers. But it's not many.

 

Take a look at guys right now with an OPS over .800 in the majors. There's 56 guys on the list. Only four of them (Ben Zobrist, David Freese, Dexter Fowler & Josh Willingham) were in the minors at 25, and only Zobrist & Freese hadn't spent at least some time in the majors to that point.

 

Occasionally we stumble across one of these guys, but it's not often, and I wouldn't build a case for optimism around them.

[TooLiveBrew]

Congrats to him on getting Southern League hitters out. But if he's not a top of the rotation guy, then what should we expect? Will he be better than Marcum? Will he be a better than average major leaguer? Is he someone who can get major league hitters out in the postseason?

Well, in short, I don't know. But it sucks to see you be so dismissive of the Southern League -- that's good baseball, and by no means should anyone who posts a sub-2 ERA be questioned due to age imo. This isn't a MLB vet who's gone down to try & rejuvenate his career, this is a young man who's obviously made massive strides in his development... and that's what the MiLB system is all about. I don't think anyone should expect him to be better than Marcum, but do you expect Fiers to be better than Marcum? Probably not, but there's no reason not to be excited about having Fiers in the fold for the next six seasons or so.

 

We can't buy All-Stars, so we have to make them. And I'm not confident that we can make enough of them to get the Brewers to 88 wins or more.

 

I'm truly glad that you see a better future than I do. If everyone was as grouchy and doubtful as me, it would be boring.

And likewise, I'm glad someone's banging the pessimism drum. Seriously. It's important to remember that -- like you say -- when you need to 'grow your own', no farm system can possibly be talented enough or deep enough. You should always be questing after more top-tier talent.

 

I guess my larger point on the system is that sometimes that top-tier talent comes from guys you weren't expecting it from. Maybe Hunter Morris is one of those guys... maybe Kh Davis will be a legit late bloomer and go on to provide a few seasons of good value like Nelson Cruz has for TEX. Obviously you never know, but I believe that there's enough talent currently in the system to provide multiple good players in the near future. So for Bruce Seid & Co., keep on doing the grunt work & hope your scouting pays off with the draft & in Latin America.

[yoshii8]

I hope Burgos gets a September callup to see what we have. I'm very intrigued by him, and wonder if he's changed something to have this breakout season.

[JimH5]

I don't know that I'm dismissive of the Southern League--though I definitely am dismissive of older players doing well in the minors and how that equates to the majors. Ben Hendrickson was dominating AAA while pitching at a younger age than Burgos is now.

 

I lived in Jacksonville for 3 years and spent a few evenings watching Southern League play. The Suns were a Dodger farm team then, and they had a well regarded roster.

 

Victor Diaz was supposed to be the jewel on offense and Ricardo Rodriguez was their elite pitcher. I thought Heath Totten was going to be great, but obviously it didn't turn out that way. Diaz and Rodriguez also flamed out. Lots of guys flame out.

 

It is such a long shot for a minor league to make it in the bigs. And with a team having as many holes as the 2013 Brewers, I'm just skeptical they will find them in the system that was so dismissed

at the beginning of the year.

[xisxisxis]

It is such a long shot for a minor league to make it in the bigs. And with a team having as many holes as the 2013 Brewers, I'm just skeptical they will find them in the system that was so dismissed at the beginning of the year.

 

Jim, your series of posts here are one of the reasons i still come to Brewerfan, excellent unbiased analysis.

 

Of course any system has bright spots you can point to such as burgos and last year (not this year) Wily Peralta, but all systems have bright spots. All systems have a breakout year by a few players who never see day 1 in the majors. No matter what anyone says, it IS pretty damning that the brewers system is rated so low. There is a lack of projectable talent in the Brewers system compared to other systems and unbiased 3rd parties almost all agree that is the case.

[JimH5]

Jim, your series of posts here are one of the reasons i still come to Brewerfan, excellent unbiased analysis.

 

Thanks for that, though I was also the guy who was blasted last year for calling Mark Rogers a loser following his substance suspension! So I'm just as capable of drawing the ire of my sitemates. . . but thanks the same.

[torts]

HERE COMES AUGUST!!!!! 20 GAMES VS NL CENTRAL!!!! ONLY 3 AGAINST CINCY! RUN IT BABY, LETS SEE SOME MAGIC HAPPEN HERE!!!!

[slappzilla]

ha, I knew you'd bump this thread up after yesterdays sweep.

 

I am actually optimistic about the 2nd half, just to see how the rotation does.

 

Think of it this way...

 

MVP candidate

two possible (stretching maybe) ROTY candidates

 

The guy we replaced Prince with in the clean up spot leads the league in Doubles and is on fire.

 

Actually, bringing up the above just makes me rage even more about the bullpen. grrrr

[torts]

THATRS WHAT IM TALKINA BOUT!!!!!! AAWWWWWWWW YEAAAAAAHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH

[torts]

KABOOOOOM!!!! HOW SWEEP IT IS!!!!

[torts]

HERE WE COME .500!!!!!!!! YOU BEST BE READY

[pogokat]

i appreciate this

[Patrick425]

Call me crazy...but I'm still holding out hope for some sort of miracle September from the Brewers. If I'm not mistaken, the Cards were 7.5 out of 1st and 8.5 out of the wild card at this point last year.

 

And believe me, this is coming from someone who is not exactly a "glass is half full" type of guy.

[KCBrewerfan34]

How close do we have to get to think we're in it, 5 games?

[Bombers]

Call me crazy...but I'm still holding out hope for some sort of miracle September from the Brewers. If I'm not mistaken, the Cards were 7.5 out of 1st and 8.5 out of the wild card at this point last year.

 

And believe me, this is coming from someone who is not exactly a "glass is half full" type of guy.

The bad news is 12 of the cards last 25 games come against the padres, cubs and Astros. If the cards go 13-12 we need to go 20-5

[pogokat]

i think they need to win 23 games to have a shot---25 for me to feel good...so a miracle is what it would take...25-5 ...there ya go

[brewmann04]

it nice to see them get to 500 and finish strong.

[brewmann04]

it nice to see them get to 500 and finish strong.