2nd half optimism!!

[brewmann04]

Lets see what the Brewers do coming out of the gate before we get to optimistic.

[torts]

Lets see what the Brewers do coming out of the gate before we get to optimistic.

 

no, that defeats the point. come out of the gate optimistic, deal with the results later.

[brewmann04]

OK i will try, we have our best going this weekend so i will remain positive.

[pebadger]

The Brewers will sign Hatteberg to play first after trading Hart for pitching and proceed to win 21 games in a row, topping the As and tying the Cubs NL record.

 

Seriously, I made the optimism comment in the game thread following the first game of the Marlins series. I'll stand by what I said there, which means I think the Brewers have to find a way to go 7-2 in these next 9 if they really want to take themselves seriously. 6-3 is a maybe, but then you have to sweep the Phils IMO.

 

My adjusted rule of thumb: As soon as it become mathematically impossible to be at .500 when the Nats come to town, you start the sale. That means they need to go 9-3 in the next 12. If that seems an impossibly high standard, well, too bad. This team has simply squandered too many chances to this point. They simply won't get the best deals possible if they wait too long. This rule balances the realities of the situation on both sides: win at that rate and standing pat/adding can be justified. If they can't do it they will mean they have lost ground to their direct competition in the division to an extent that it would be unreasonable to continue acting as if they have any legitimate shot at making teh post-season.

[torts]

The Brewers will sign Hatteberg to play first after trading Hart for pitching and proceed to win 21 games in a row, topping the As and tying the Cubs NL record.

 

Seriously, I made the optimism comment in the game thread following the first game of the Marlins series. I'll stand by what I said there, which means I think the Brewers have to find a way to go 7-2 in these next 9 if they really want to take themselves seriously. 6-3 is a maybe, but then you have to sweep the Phils IMO.

 

My adjusted rule of thumb: As soon as it become mathematically impossible to be at .500 when the Nats come to town, you start the sale. That means they need to go 9-3 in the next 12. If that seems an impossibly high standard, well, too bad. This team has simply squandered too many chances to this point. They simply won't get the best deals possible if they wait too long. This rule balances the realities of the situation on both sides: win at that rate and standing pat/adding can be justified. If they can't do it they will mean they have lost ground to their direct competition in the division to an extent that it would be unreasonable to continue acting as if they have any legitimate shot at making teh post-season.

 

THEY CAN DO IT!

[SoCal Brew Crew Fan]

There is no team in the NL that is dominant. The Brewers are just as good as any of them, all they need to do is get on a roll.

 

They are scoring runs, fielding adequately and the starting pitching has been solid...if the bullpen can use this downtime to get healthy and get in a groove, they'll win more than they'll lose.

 

This much I know...I'll be watching!!!

 

BTW...this Braun guy is really good at baseball.

[joepepsi]

They are 17-16 since the start of June. In those 33 games Axford has blown a save and/or taken the loss 5 times. That's not counting a game on June 13th when he gave up 3 runs in 1/3rd of an inning. In this same stretch, K-Rod has provided another 4 games where he blew a save or took the loss, pitching to a 10.54 ERA.

 

Every player goes through bad stretches, but it's clear to see Axford and KRod are the problem this summer. The offense could be better, but it has shown some improvement over recent weeks. The bullpen has to stop giving up what leads the offense provides. If that happens they are back in this thing. If not, then they'll struggle to get to .500.

[torts]

WHERE IS YOUR OPTIMISM! ITS A NEW START, 77 GAMES, JUST HAD A 4 DAY BREAK! SEE THE SUN BREAK THROUGH THE DARK CLOUDS! .800 down the stretch, LETS GO!

[hawing]

I think the worst scenario is for the Brewers to go 4-5 or 5-4, and have management hemming and hawing about what to do.

I just hate it when this happens! Every time I see that phrase in this thread I wonder why someone is talking about me.

 

I tend to lean toward hopefulness, so I'm happy enough just to see play resume tonight, and to see Zack on the mound again. History!

[rluzinski]

The Brewers are going to be huge favorites tomorrow (as they always are in Greinke home starts)

 

I doubt that the Brewer's line gets much of a boost from Greinke pitching at home, above the average home field advantage. Those are the kind of mostly-random splits that most gamblers know not weigh to heavily.

 

EDIT: Brewers at -137. subtracting the juice, that gives the them a 57% chance of winning. Average home field advantage is around 4%. If anything, that seems way lower than it should be:

 

ZiPS updated projections:

McDonald: 4.06 ERA

Greinke: 2.88 ERA

 

I don't know how you don't give the Brewers a substantial edge offensively as well.

[RockCoCougars]

The Brewers are going to be huge favorites tomorrow (as they always are in Greinke home starts)

 

I doubt that the Brewer's line gets much of a boost from Greinke pitching at home, above the average home field advantage. Those are the kind of mostly-random splits that most gamblers know not weigh to heavily.

 

EDIT: Brewers at -137. subtracting the juice, that gives the them a 57% chance of winning. Average home field advantage is around 4%. If anything, that seems way lower than it should be:

 

ZiPS updated projections:

McDonald: 4.06 ERA

Greinke: 2.88 ERA

 

I don't know how you don't give the Brewers a substantial edge offensively as well.

 

I'm surprised that this line is so low. I'm sure that some of it is due to the fact that the Pirates are becoming known as a 'good' team and McDonald is pitching. In 4 of the 7 home starts that Greinke has at MP this year, the lines have been at -175 with two greater than -200. Much of that is due to the quality of the opponents, but I bet if the game tonight had been played in April, the odds would be much higher.

[rluzinski]

Much of that is due to the quality of the opponents, but I bet if the game tonight had been played in April, the odds would be much higher.

 

There's no doubt that it would have, as McDonald is having a break out year. My point was simply that I don't think Greinke's home/road splits at Miller Park is much of a factor at all.

[thebruce44]

I really don't care about winning the wild card, I think they should be focused on the division. I know they aren't actively trying to settle for the WC but I'm focusing on the 8 back in the division rather than the 6 back in the WC. I don't want to have to play a one-game playoff. If we did that and lost, it would be just devastating, especially knowing how many guys are walking away for practically nothing.

 

Basically what I'm saying is after this stretch, if they think they have a shot at the division, then fine. But if they're only shooting for the WC because they're like 4 or 5 back of that (but 6-7+ in the division), then I'd sell.

 

Seriously, if you lose that 1 game playoff, do you even feel like you "made the playoffs?"

[RockCoCougars]

Much of that is due to the quality of the opponents, but I bet if the game tonight had been played in April, the odds would be much higher.

 

There's no doubt that it would have, as McDonald is having a break out year. My point was simply that I don't think Greinke's home/road splits at Miller Park is much of a factor at all.

 

I don't know. Many gamblers love looking at trends and streaks, and I'm sure that many are aware that the Brewers are 26-1 or whatever in MP Greinke starts. Obviously, past performance doesn't ensure future success, especially with all the variables in sports gambling, but I've noticed that Vegas has put a premium on the Brewers when Greinke starts at MP- there is often a big difference in the vig (maybe 20 cents or so) between his starts and Gallardo starts at home against the same opponents and similar opposing pitchers. Greinke has been the better pitcher this season, but not by that much.

 

Today, the odds are moving toward the Pirates. I'm not sure if that's because the Pirates have gained a lot of believers or that Vegas wants people to bet the Brewers and ride Greinke's streak. I'm guessing mostly the former, but I do find it a tad ominous that they set the opening line so low.

[rluzinski]

Many gamblers love looking at trends and streaks, and I'm sure that many are aware that the Brewers are 26-1 or whatever in MP Greinke starts. Obviously, past performance doesn't ensure future success, especially with all the variables in sports gambling, but I've noticed that Vegas has put a premium on the Brewers when Greinke starts at MP

 

I am skeptical that is true. Yes, you can call hotlines to get "free" gambling tips and they generally focus on all kinds of crazy trends and streaks, most of which are almost completely random. I am sure there are some gamblers that have been playing on the Greinke home record but I suspect that they aren't prevalent enough to have moved the line significantly. I would be surprised if the line moves even 5 cents because of it.

 

...there is often a big difference in the vig (maybe 20 cents or so) between his starts and Gallardo starts at home against the same opponents and similar opposing pitchers. Greinke has been the better pitcher this season, but not by that much.

 

There IS a significant difference between Greinke and Gallardo. You would never have known it had you been reading this message board last year but Greinke was and continues to be the superior starting pitcher. I don't hear anyone claiming this year that Gallardo is obviously the better pitcher and Greinke really has only had 3 good months in his career (yes I am exaggerating but it was all pretty silly).

 

Here are their ZiPS projections for the rest of the year:

 

Greinke 2.88 ERA

Gallardo: 3.73 ERA

 

That means Gallardo projects to give up about an extra .6 runs over a 6 IP start. If we assume a 6 IP start, 4.5 runs of offense and a 4 ERA from the relievers:

 

Greinke: 4.5 RS/game, 3.25 RA/G, 64% win probability, -147 no juice line

Gallardo: 4.5 RS/game, 3.82 RA/G, 57% win probability, -131 no juice line

 

If I didn't screw that up, the difference between the two translates to around 16 cents. I don't claim projections or these kind of calculations are infallible but they are great as a gut check.

 

Seriously, if you lose that 1 game playoff, do you even feel like you "made the playoffs?"

 

I would argue that the losing team didn't really make the playoffs at all.

[adambr2]

The so-called 2nd wild card is a joke in my opinion. It does nothing except force the actual wild card winner to have to beat a team in 1 game that they were better than over the course of 162 games to get in. That's all it is.

[PrinceEatMeat]

The so-called 2nd wild card is a joke in my opinion. It does nothing except force the actual wild card winner to have to beat a team in 1 game that they were better than over the course of 162 games to get in. That's all it is.

 

I agree. I'm not a fan of it. They especially shouldn't've done it this year while the leagues are still uneven. There are gonna be a some cases where the 1st WC team finishes with a far better record than the 2nd WC team and ends up losing the 1-game playoff. That's not fair in my opinion. The WC winner should earn a 5-game series.

[igor67]

Yes it is in some sense supposed to punish wild card winners, and give teams a reason for wanting to be division winners. In that sense it is more fair than football where some of the division winners also have an extra play in game and others don't.

[The stache]

I love your optimism, torts, and I'm totally on board! Here's why:

 

First and foremost, as poorly as the Brewers have played in the first half as a team, nobody has run away with the NL Central as of yet. We are only 7 games out, a deficit that is by no means insurmountable. And quite honestly, none of the other teams in the central scare me. Cincy, Pittsburgh and St. Louis are good, but I don't look at their squads and think to myself "they're clearly superior than the Brewers". The teams ahead of us are beatable. The Pirates are not a lock by any means. They faded big time last season after a great first half, and if we take this series (after winning yesterday), some of that doubt will start to creep in. We have owned the Pirates for years, and while they are greatly improved, they should not intimidate the Brewers at all. Andrew McCutchen, who is my favorite for the NL MVP right now, is playing above himself. I think he's a tremendous player, and he's going to be a perennial All Star (and I hope nobody thinks I'm dissing him, as I am not). But he's not a .360 hitter. He will cool off, and I expect the Pirates to fall back just a little. The Cardinals? Losing Carpenter for the year is going to hurt them as the season wears on. Wainright has been better as of late, but I'm not sure how long he can last. Missing a whole season, especially as a pitcher, will mess up your endurance. They have some great young pitchers on the way (Shelby Miller and Carlos martinez), but will they make an impact this season? Their lineup is talented, but they have a daily bus shipping players to and from the DL. Berkman has not had an impact yet, and I'm not sure how healthy he is going to be. Beltran needs help, and Jay, Freese, Craig and Holliday are all injury prone. I think the Reds are the class of the division. Votto is the one guy in the NL that I think is in the same class as Ryan Braun as far as hitting goes. But do they have the pitching?

 

Beyond our divisional foes, the Brewers are going to improve. We're going to have Jonathan Lucroy back soon. He won't hit at the same clip he did in the first half, but I expect him to keep his average above .300, and he'll drive in plenty of runs. He's a clutch bat, and he'll instantly improve the offense. Rickie Weeks has looked more like the Rickie Weeks of old. The numbers for the year still look awful. But if you look beyond that, specifically at July, and he's coming on. For July he's batting .344 (11 for 32), and his strikeout rate is dropping (6 times in his last nine games). Over the last 4 games, he's got 2 HR and 6 RBI. If he hits .250 and hits 10 HR the rest of the way, which I am expecting, and plays steady defense, the team as a whole will get a boost. Finally, Aramis Ramirez has completely shaken off his really cold start, and he's on a pace to drive in 100 runs. An effective Aramis Ramirez means that pitchers will have to continue throwing to Ryan Braun.

 

If our bullpen improves at all, we are going to get back in this thing. I really believe it.

[Nottso]

Last night was a good start. They had every opportunity to fold to a pretty good Pirates team and didn't. Hopefully tonight they can administer a good beating and make a statement.

[torts]

I love your optimism, torts, and I'm totally on board!

 

YOU NEED TO SAY NO MORE! 1 DOWN, 76 WINS TO GO! 1.000 HERE ON OUT!

[torts]

2 of 3! LETS GO! CONFIDENCE BUILDInG SERIES!!!

[TooLiveBrew]

[disclaimer: I don't want to crap on this thread, merely want to comment on the Pirates]

 

I really don't think beating the Pirates is any big accomplishment. That is one horrible offense. It's really surprising to me that they've won so many games this far. I think their org. has been heading in the right direction for several years now, but this team is not a legit contender.

 

Nice to see the Brewers take a series! And today's game was definitely excellent to watch.

[SoCal Brew Crew Fan]

There are no complete teams in the NL. Everyone has strengths and weaknesses. The Pirates used some early season luck and started to get rolling once the offense kicked in. Their starters aren't bad and their bullpen is solid. I can see them keeping up in the Central the rest of the season.

 

The Brewers are every bit as good as any of them...their pen has just cost them too many games and they aren't so dominant in any other phase to overcome it. A little roll could get them in it...hope it happens this week.

[torts]

BRING ON THE CARDS!!!!!