2nd half optimism!!

[Patrick425]

Last year, through 144 games, St. Louis was 7.5 games out of the Wild Card and they were given a 2.4% chance of making the playoffs. So...I don't really give a lot of credence to these probabilities. Odd things happen in sports that can not always be prognosticated by a computer simulation program.

 

Yes, odd things happen. That's why the probability isn't zero.

 

Well, according to this link....a lot of "Odd" things happen:

 

http://www.coolstandings.com/comebacks.asp?i=1&sn=2012

 

Seems to me those probabilities are somewhat meaningless.

[Outlander]

If I'm not mistaken, unless the Dodger fall 2 games back tonight (meaning the Brewers would not gain any ground tonight), the most the Brewers could gain over the weekend (starting tomorrow actually) would be a game and a half. In other words, the closest they could possibly be, if everything went perfectly, by the end of this weekend is 1.5 games out.

 

Correct, the best they can be is 1.5 games out of first and the worst is 8.5 games out of first by the end of the day Sunday.

[Oxy]

Last year, through 144 games, St. Louis was 7.5 games out of the Wild Card and they were given a 2.4% chance of making the playoffs. So...I don't really give a lot of credence to these probabilities. Odd things happen in sports that can not always be prognosticated by a computer simulation program.

 

Yes, odd things happen. That's why the probability isn't zero.

 

Well, according to this link....a lot of "Odd" things happen:

 

http://www.coolstandings.com/comebacks.asp?i=1&sn=2012

 

Seems to me those probabilities are somewhat meaningless.

 

That's a fun list! 94 times in the last 108 years a team's playoff odds have been below 10% at some point in the season and they still made the playoffs (according to these oddsmakers, anyways). Still, that doesn't mean that the stats are wrong or meaningless. That is the LOWEST point of the entire season for that team, and it gets into some pretty complicated math that I don't want to to do to try and figure out to determine if the numbers are close. There is a weird time component that really complicates matters when you use the entire season and get to cherry pick a teams lowest playoff odds. It would be less deceptive if they had different lists for a specific number of games remaining. Still, it means that MOST years at least one playoff team will have defied the odds by coming back from a significant deficit from some point in the season.

 

It's probably not actually "defying the odds" though, since we don't actually know how many other teams have been in the same situation as each of those teams and didn't make the playoffs.

 

EDIT: After looking at the list again, they do list an AVGPOFF, which when combined with the lowest playoff odds makes for some even more unlikely scenarios and also removes some of the deception. I do think that the odds throughout August are probably very screwed up because of roster changes and the fact that it is "make or break" time for a lot of teams.

[rluzinski]

It's very difficult to be the team out in front in these situations, it's almost better to be a little behind but playing good ball. The Brewers have been virtually ignored until this week, but the Packers aren't playing this weekend and with another win today there will be a lot of attention on them at Miller Park this weekend. They couldn't respond to pressure earlier in the season, so will they be able to this time?

 

All teams have their ups and downs in a season and there is little predictable about any of it. This insistence on persistence is frustrating to me because I know so much of it is just white noise; I can prove it is mathematically. How are you guys so good at identifying when it isn't just luck? For instance, you seem to imply that the Brewers performed poorly at least in part because they felt "pressure" (implied correlation). How do you know pressure had any meaningful effect on team performance, either positive or negative?

 

Not long ago, the Brewers were swept by the Rockies and fell to 52-64. Right around that time, someone wrote in a game thread, "Things will get worse before they get better." Of course, in all likelihood, things were going to get better but baseball fans don't seem to think that way.

[owbc]

All teams have their ups and downs in a season and there is little predictable about any of it. This insistence on persistence is frustrating to me because I know so much of it is just white noise; I can prove it is mathematically. How are you guys so good at identifying when it isn't just luck? For instance, you seem to imply that the Brewers performed poorly at least in part because they felt "pressure" (implied correlation). How do you know pressure had any meaningful effect on team performance, either positive or negative?

 

Not long ago, the Brewers were swept by the Rockies and fell to 52-64. Right around that time, someone wrote in a game thread, "Things will get worse before they get better." Of course, in all likelihood, things were going to get better but baseball fans don't seem to think that way.

 

The mathematical answers are often unsatisfying. Correlation does not equal causation. You are right. We can't predict much about what the Brewers will do in the next week based on what they have done this season. The most logical explanation relates to the performance of the pitching staff, in particular the bullpen.

 

To me, that's boring. It's fun to speculate on what might be responsible for this surge. I've proposed a number of ideas in various posts...is it Roenicke, the team attitude, lack of pressure, infusion of young talent, all of the above, none of the above, or something else? Who knows? But baseball players are human beings, they have emotions and there is no doubt that they do respond to stimuli that can't always be explained numerically. It's complicated.

 

So I think you are right that I should be more careful when speculating about such things. At least I should imply that it is speculation. But I still strongly feel like the infusion of media this weekend will affect the players--there's no way I could prove that it affects whether they win or lose, but I still think it is worth mentioning.

[rluzinski]

It's fun to speculate on what might be responsible for this surge. I've proposed a number of ideas in various posts...is it Roenicke, the team attitude, lack of pressure, infusion of young talent, all of the above, none of the above, or something else? Who knows? But baseball players are human beings, they have emotions and there is no doubt that they do respond to stimuli that can't always be explained numerically. It's complicated.

 

I'm not suggesting you or anyone else shouldn't speculate. That's half the fun. Nor am I suggesting that all those human factors play no role. I agree that there are parts of the game that will never be fully quantifiable. I am only speaking for the parts of the game that can be.

[topper09er]

 

Well, according to this link....a lot of "Odd" things happen:

 

http://www.coolstandings.com/comebacks.asp?i=1&sn=2012

 

Seems to me those probabilities are somewhat meaningless.

 

Actually, since 1903 there have been

16 teams * 58 seasons (1903-1960)

18 teams * 1 season (1961)

20 teams * 7 seasons (1962-1968)

24 teams * 8 seaons (1969-1976)

26 teams * 16 seaons (1977-1992)

28 teams * 4 seaons (1993-1997) [MINUS 1994]

30 teams * 14 seasons (1998-2011)

_______________________________

2226 team-seasons

 

1% of that is 22, so we should expect about 22 teams to have made the playoffs given a 1% playoff chance since 1903

 

Counting the 2011 cardinals who bottomed out to 1.1, there have been 19 teams since 1901 to make the playoffs with a 1 % chance (all teams with a min chance below 1 eventually got up to 1% on their rise towards the playoffs)

 

Not too bad

[homer]

I'm excited to even be talking about playoffs given the way the bulk of the season has gone. I would probably be even more excited if Philly hadn't decided to get hot as well. They've been even hotter than Milwaukee.

[dlk9s]

I'm excited to even be talking about playoffs given the way the bulk of the season has gone. I would probably be even more excited if Philly hadn't decided to get hot as well. They've been even hotter than Milwaukee.

 

Thing is, I'm not even worried about Philly. Not because they don't have a chance, it's just that if the Brewers do well enough to make the playoffs, Philly almost certainly won't be able to keep up the same pace. Of course, there's always the chance that the Brewers could make the playoffs with just a decent record the rest of the way, but it's more likely they'll need to go something like 16-4 or 15-5 and I doubt Philly will be able to match/beat that.

[GamelToe]

Could gain another game here if the Crew wins. 3 GB? YES WE CAN.

[igor67]

topper's method is probably the most accurate way to estimate how likely these long shots are. At first glance there seems to be a lot of big comebacks, just realize that every season there are 15-20 teams that are in a position for a long shot comeback. The probability of any particular team doing it is small, but you have to multiply that by all the teams that fade out to get the real chance of it happening per season. Things are interesting right now, but its hard not to think about losing that extra inning game to the Cards, we'd only be 2 games back!

[BrewerTerp]

baseball is a lot of fun when your team is playing with house money. i just hope i'm not too crushed when they pull the chips back.

[torts]

I LOVE THIS TEAM, I LOVE THIS SPORT, I LOVE WINNING

[BoxedWineWarrior]

I LOVE THIS TEAM, I LOVE THIS SPORT, I LOVE WINNING

 

Yeah, what he said.

 

Someone tell this team they're "done" and chasing unicorns. What a joy to watch them not quit.

[pogokat]

CAPS LOCK!!!!!1!!!1!11

[homer]

http://zipmeme.com/uploads/generated/g1337436914921846786.jpg

[Hitman_Hart]

CAPS LOCK KUNG-FU IS STRONG KUNG-FU!!!!!

[RockCoCougars]

It absolutely blows my mind that the Brewers would have only been a game out of the WC as we stand if they had pulled out the W on Sunday.

[And That]

Another bizarrely good day and night so far for the Brewers as the Braves, Cardinals, Pirates all lose and the Dodgers just blew their lead in Arizona. Pretty unbelievable.

[brewmann04]

I checking my magic eight ball for the ultimate answer.

[Bombers]

http://zipmeme.com/uploads/generated/g1337436914921846786.jpg

Hahaha - awesome

[jerichoholicninja]

Based on what I've seen this team do the last few seasons I am fully expecting the Mets to sweep this weekend.

[Oxy]

Another bizarrely good day and night so far for the Brewers as the Braves, Cardinals, Pirates all lose and the Dodgers just blew their lead in Arizona. Pretty unbelievable.

 

Say the Dodgers lose--what were the odds on Sunday night that the standings would look like they do tonight? 11 straight games all falling in the Brewers' favor. At roughly 50/50 per game, that's .5^11, right? Or 1 in 2048? Slightly less than 0.05%?

[homer]

One week ago, the Brewers had a .8% chance of making the playoffs according to Coolstandings.com. Tonight they have a 6.6% chance. Pittsburgh had a 26.2% chance a week ago. Now they are at just 8.7%

[Fear The Chorizo]

The way the teams in front of the Brewers are playing, I'd almost rather have them not play each other - that way at least none of them are guaranteed of winning.