2nd half optimism!!

[Oxy]

I am optimistic but the upcoming roadtrip is keeping me from getting to excited.

 

If they could somehow be within 2 games going into the last homestand aginst HOU and SD that would be ideal. However that means they probably have to win today and at a minimum go 6-3 or 7-2 on the roadtrip through CIN, PIT, and WAS. That is going to be extremely unlikely. Yes PIT has fallen off a cliff but winning series against CIN and WAS, the two best teams in the NL, is going to be a huge task.

 

I agree that being 2 games out going into the last homestand is the most realistic shot at maintaining hope, but I don't think they need to go 8-2 on that trip to do it. They are 4 games back right now. Make up 1-2 games in the next 4 home games, then either make up another game or hold steady over that 10 games road trip. If the Crew goes 3-1 over the next 4 games and the Cards go 2-2, They'll be 3 back. Go 6-4 over the 10 game road trip (including at least 2 wins against PIT), and have the Cards go 5-5 over that same stretch. There you go, 2 games back with 6 home games against HOU and SD left, and you didn't even have to rely on the Cards to completely tank to do it.

[wisniewski]

So, so exciting. Baseball is a funny game.

 

I can't even begin to think about football until this is all sorted out for the Crew.

[djoctagone]

hope springs attorney.

[fondybrewfan]

Its not just the Cards we have to worry about LAD is right there too. I think it would be unrealistic to expect both STL and LAD to slump here at the end. Thats why I think 7-3 8-2 is pretty much mandatory on the road trip. And that isn't even considering the upcoming NYM series which they have to win a minimum of 2 games. It would be great if they could avoid Dickey in that series.

 

Don't get me wrong I am excited; but it is a more tempered enthusiasm. I think we are fully capable of catching both STL and PIt since STL has major injury issues and PIT has major suck issues. The team I don't know that we can catch is LAD. Not to mention PHI who we are tied with.

[rluzinski]

However that means they probably have to win today and at a minimum go 6-3 or 7-2 on the roadtrip through CIN, PIT, and WAS. That is going to be extremely unlikely. Yes PIT has fallen off a cliff but winning series against CIN and WAS, the two best teams in the NL, is going to be a huge task.

 

The Brewers may need to finish with 87 or so wins to get even a share of the last wildcard spot. That translates to a 16-4 finish. The level of talent the Brewers face becomes pretty irrelevant at that point. Baseball Prospectus estimates that the Brewers have a 1.8% chance to make the playoffs right now. If you replaced Was and Cin with a generic average team, for each game it might be the difference between a 36% of beating Was or Cin vs. a 46% chance. That's going to raise the odds of making the playoffs by very little.

 

The bigger issue is that the Brewers only have 3 games left against teams above them in the WC standings. That means that even if the Brewers do the improbable and finish on a 16-4 tear, they STILL might not make the playoffs.

 

That's why I don't even bother looking at the long odds. The Brewers need to win 3 of their next 4 games. That's a "reasonably optimistic" short term goal.

[Oxy]

Its not just the Cards we have to worry about LAD is right there too. I think it would be unrealistic to expect both STL and LAD to slump here at the end. Thats why I think 7-3 8-2 is pretty much mandatory on the road trip. And that isn't even considering the upcoming NYM series which they have to win a minimum of 2 games. It would be great if they could avoid Dickey in that series.

 

Don't get me wrong I am excited; but it is a more tempered enthusiasm. I think we are fully capable of catching both STL and PIt since STL has major injury issues and PIT has major suck issues. The team I don't know that we can catch is LAD. Not to mention PHI who we are tied with.

 

Of course it isn't likely. The odds are something like 4%. But the confidence interval for that 4% is very wide. I'd rather take the chances of flipping a coin up heads five times in a row than rolling a 25 sided die and coming up roses once. Mathematically, it may all come out in the wash, but this isn't mathematics. It's sports .

 

EDIT: I got the 4% from ESPN. If Baseball Prospectus has different numbers, so be it. Perhaps they take into account winning the first "sudden death" tie-breaker game to get to the next sudden death tie-breaker game to then actually join the playoffs? Baby steps .

[rluzinski]

But the confidence interval for that 4% is very wide.

 

Why do you say that? I guess in terms of % difference in the two estimates but not absolute difference I don't think.

 

We obviously don't know the true odds of winning each of the last relevant games but even if we assume 50/50 odds, you are going to come to reasonably similar odds I would think. Coolstandings has a "smart" and "dumb" version of their estimate and there is only a .7% difference between the two.

 

BP's estimate of true team talent must be very different.

[Patrick425]

I don't understand how St. Louis has a 58.7% chance of making the playoffs and LAD only has a 23.9% chance. LA is only 1 game behind St.L and they play a 4 game series against each other this weekend. I understand it's a complex simulation that they run millions of times to come up with these numbers, but still, something seems flawed there.

 

Last year, through 144 games, St. Louis was 7.5 games out of the Wild Card and they were given a 2.4% chance of making the playoffs. So...I don't really give a lot of credence to these probabilities. Odd things happen in sports that can not always be prognosticated by a computer simulation program.

[GamelToe]

hope springs attorney.

Wait... what?

[owbc]

I don't understand how St. Louis has a 58.7% chance of making the playoffs and LAD only has a 23.9% chance. LA is only 1 game behind St.L and they play a 4 game series against each other this weekend. I understand it's a complex simulation that they run millions of times to come up with these numbers, but still, something seems flawed there.

 

Pythagorean record is a big factor in the Coolstandings formula, and the Cardinals are +84 compared with +17 for the Dodgers. The odds are a useful tool but have to be considered within their limitations: they do not care about injuries, whether or not the Brewers are on a 10 game winning or losing streak, etc. It does know future schedule which is important to an extent, but remember, the Reds and Nationals might be on cruise control by the time they play the Brewers. No Strasburg to worry about already.

 

The odds can also fluctuate wildly from game to game--which is why September baseball is so exciting. The 2008 Brewers were down to 13% odds with 10 days to go, jumped up 30% for a win, back down 30% for a loss, and then from 45% to 100% when they won on the last day of the season and the Mets lost. The 2011 Red Sox were at 88% with 3 days to go!

 

Right now, the situation is that a team other than the Cardinals or Dodgers will get the final playoff spot 1 in 5 times. Those are decent odds--and that doesn't even factor in that those two teams are heading in the wrong direction. It still looks ugly from a pure objective analysis perspective, but recent history suggests that teams are capable of finishing off these comebacks.

[TooLiveBrew]

Fighting for a chance to get into a one-game playoff to be the last team in the postseason is definitely not a pennant race.

 

I realize this is the optimism thread, but the Brewers are fighting to finish with the 5th best record in the NL.

 

Really?

 

First off it's not a one game playoff to be the last team. If you win the 2nd wild card you are technically in the playoffs. You can hang a banner for it and everything. So by default, yes the Brewers are in a pennant race.

 

Second off, fighting for the 5th best record in the NL? The Cardinals last year, the Marlins twice, The Red Sox in 04, the Angels in 02 all have won the world series as the wild card. I highly doubt they were "fighting for 4th best record".

Since this thread is all about optimism, I'll try to be brief & then duck out.

 

The reason I'm having a hard time getting excited about the Brewers possibly qualifying for the play-in game is that the team as a whole doesn't inspire confidence in me, in terms of being able to do anything once in the playoffs. I fully understand that other teams with subpar regular seasons have gone on to win the WS, and 'anything can happen!'. I'm just not drinking the blue Kool-Aid at this point, since I've seen the 2012 bullpen too many times to be able to genuinely get my hopes up.

 

Anyway, just wanted to explain myself since I played the part of Debbie Downer earlier. Carry on.

[logan82]

St. Louis is in the playoffs if the season ended today, LA isn't. LA would have to outplay St. Louis the rest of the way to get in. At least that would be my simple explanation.

[Patrick425]

The reason I'm having a hard time getting excited about the Brewers possibly qualifying for the play-in game is that the team as a whole doesn't inspire confidence in me, in terms of being able to do anything once in the playoffs.

 

I think most of us have not thought that far ahead. We are just happy about the small glimmer of Sept excitement that they are providing us.

 

St. Louis is in the playoffs if the season ended today, LA isn't. LA would have to outplay St. Louis the rest of the way to get in. At least that would be my simple explanation.

 

My point was that a one game difference should not mean a 35% confidence difference between the two teams. OWBC's explaination cleared it up a bit for me. Yes, the calculated probabilities have a lot of limitations to them.

[Fear The Chorizo]

the calculated probabilities shouldn't be looked at as predictive - they do a good job of providing a summary of how often teams made the playoffs based on snapshots of the season compared to historical outcomes, but frankly that's about it. They attempt to be predictive based on remaining schedule and some other factors, but september roster expansions and the likelihood of contending teams resting players or organizing their playoff rotations after clinching throws wrenches into things, too.

 

highly unlikely that the Brewers make the playoffs, let alone do anything in them if they do get in. The same was said of the 2010 Cards and Rays at this time last year, too. I say let's enjoy the ride of an unexpected period of playoff fever and scoreboard watching, however long it lasts.

[djoctagone]

hope springs attorney.

Wait... what?

infamous quote from kent sommerfeld. either jim powell or bob uecker shared it on the air.

 

it's appropriate now.

[jmeks23]

This reminds me more of the Astros a few years ago or even the Marlins a few years ago. They would always get really hot at the end of the year and make a ton of ground up in the standings, but all for naught as they would fall a few games short. Hopefully it ends up differently but with this many teams ahead of the crew, plus a relatively tough schedule I'm not sure.

[Patrick425]

han%20solo.jpg

[JohnBriggs12]

I'm quoting from Buster Olney's blog today: "Rather than asking whether the Brewers have enough to get to the top, maybe the more appropriate question is: Have they been a good team all along, weighed down only by an absurdly poor bullpen?"

 

He goes on to basically answer his own question in the affirmative by pointing out Axford's recent success. Of course anyone that's followed the Brewers all season knew that. Who knew Stan Kyles was the problem after all?

[And That]

Wonder what the over/under would be on the number of games the Brewers need to win of their last 20 to make the playoffs... I'd put money on the over for 14, but not sure how much higher I'd push it than that.

[rluzinski]

Wonder what the over/under would be on the number of games the Brewers need to win of their last 20 to make the playoffs... I'd put money on the over for 14, but not sure how much higher I'd push it than that.

 

BP thinks the Cardinals will earn the final spot with about 87 wins, hence my claim that the Brewers probably need 16 more wins to force a 1 game playoff for the right to play a one game playoff to get into the playoffs

 

I'm sure 15 would still give the Brewers some reasonable chance.... 14 probably very little chance.

[owbc]

For the Cardinals to finish with 87 wins, they would have to go 4 games over .500 the rest of the way, 12-8. That doesn't seem too difficult, but if they keep up their recent play, they probably have an equal chance of going 8-12 which would almost certainly result in elimination. It's unfortunate but if either the Cardinals or Dodgers decide to wake up, the race is over. If everyone goes .500, the Cardinals finish with 85 wins and the Dodgers with 84, and the Pirates with 82 or 83. The Brewers still need to go 14-6 to get to 85 which would allow them to lose 1 game in each of their 6 remaining series (not including tonight's game).

 

With all these teams bunched together, it seems reasonable that somebody will get to 86, most likely the winner of the Cardinals/Dodgers series. If there is a split, it seems likely that one of the Philles, Pirates, or Brewers will pick up a game or even two. So by the end of next weekend there could easily be 4 or even 5 teams within 2 games of each other.

 

I think if anyone that gets to 87 or higher they will get in without a tiebreaker. The odds of the Brewers being that team are quite slim. At 86 wins, you probably have a two-team tie. At 85 or 84, there could be as many as four teams tied for the second wildcard. The Brewers would still have to play well to get into that mess, but could get away with a few extra losses.

 

It's very difficult to be the team out in front in these situations, it's almost better to be a little behind but playing good ball. The Brewers have been virtually ignored until this week, but the Packers aren't playing this weekend and with another win today there will be a lot of attention on them at Miller Park this weekend. They couldn't respond to pressure earlier in the season, so will they be able to this time?

[JohnBriggs12]

Cardinals have been running on fumes, but they have a 9 game stretch coming up vs. Astros (6) and Cubs (3). Even stumbling teams can get healthy with a stretch like that. I think the Brewers need to go 16-4.

[dlk9s]

Last year, through 144 games, St. Louis was 7.5 games out of the Wild Card and they were given a 2.4% chance of making the playoffs. So...I don't really give a lot of credence to these probabilities. Odd things happen in sports that can not always be prognosticated by a computer simulation program.

 

Yes, odd things happen. That's why the probability isn't zero.

[torts]

Maholm is 3-10 with a 4.86 ERA against the Brewers lifetime with 15 HR, 47 BB and 89 K in 129 IP in 21 games. BRING ON THE BROOMS EVERYONE, TIME TO SWEEP THE BRAVES OUTTA TOWN!

[Patrick425]

If there is a split, it seems likely that one of the Philles, Pirates, or Brewers will pick up a game or even two.

 

If I'm not mistaken, unless the Dodger fall 2 games back tonight (meaning the Brewers would not gain any ground tonight), the most the Brewers could gain over the weekend (starting tomorrow actually) would be a game and a half. In other words, the closest they could possibly be, if everything went perfectly, by the end of this weekend is 1.5 games out.