2nd half optimism!!

[torts]

77 games remain.

 

12 games remaining against pirates

9 games remaining against cardinals

9 games remaining against reds

9 games remaining against astros

7 games remaining against chicago

 

31 games remain outside our division

 

I still believe in this brewers team.

[slappzilla]

These next 3 upcoming series will tell the tale.

 

PIT/STL/CIN

 

After those series are done. I assume Doug is going to sit down with Mark and they're going to make the ultimate buy or sell decision.

 

Thing to remember, the Brewers are 40-45, 5 games under .500. Even if they take 2 out of 3 from all 3 division contenders, going 6-3 during the stint, they'll still be 46-48, 2 games below .500.

 

Going to need a serious hot streak in order to justify having a solid shot at contending and not selling.

[pacopete4]

Win 2 of 3 each series from here out and we are 91-71. Win series. That'll get us to where we want to be... hopefully.

[slappzilla]

yeah, that's easily obtainable too.

 

Why not just win out?

 

117-45

[torts]

an average of 2-3 wouldnt be hard, some series the brewers arent going to win... but if they crush the pirates as they have in the past, that'll make up for losing a series or two or three elsewhere.

[slappzilla]

putting together a 90 win season after a 40-45 start will be hard. Optimism aside, the odds are not in the Brewers favor right now.

 

Injuries, crapo bullpen, crafty lefty with a an almost 6 ERA, knucklehead base running, knucklehead fielding, predator batting below the mendoza line...it's a lot to overcome.

 

Not trying to be debbie downer here. I am rooting for them, but you can't be serious in saying it wouldn't be hard for them to contend from here out.

[Oxy]

If everybody on the team plays up to their capabilities though the end of the season, I think the playoffs are within reach. That basically means Yo, Grienke, and the bullpen need to be lights out good which they can be, and Wolf needs to revert to last season's form. The offense has basically performed as expected in the last month, with Weeks and Ramirez turning it around a little bit. Getting Lucroy back and having him hit .300 would be a plus as well.

 

All that said, it isn't likely to happen, but it certainly isn't impossible with the extra playoff slot this year.

[theavrock]

there is a reason the thread is titled second half optimism. ITT things should be looked from that perspective as opposed to the realistic or pessimistic viewpoint.

[slappzilla]

I'm all about optimism.

 

It's when someone says...

 

winning an average of 2 out of 3 games the rest of the way wouldn't be hard

 

...that I had to chime in with a bit or reality.

 

84-86 wins with help of a weak division and/or extra playoff spot and they could do it. I am truly optimistic that could happen.

[FVBrewerFan]

Optimisitc side of me says nobody in the lineup is playing over their heads, with reason to believe Weeks and Hart can have a btter 2nd half. More than makes up for Lucroy dropping off a little. Plus, you may catch lightning in a bottle with a guy like Bianchi (if he ever plays.) Almost any offense from SS would be an improvement.

 

On the mound, if Wolf keeps struggling there are options to rpelace him in Thorny, Peralty, Burgosy, etc. Greinke and Yo fully capable of putting together really solid or even spectacular 2nd halfs. Bullpen is biggest concern, but at lest they realize they have a problem- always the first step in recovery. There are options there too if Vargas, Loe, and KRod continue to struggle. Maybe you don't DFA them, but bring in other guys to handle the critical innings.

 

Frankly, if they get real hot real early I woudn't even mind giving up some mediocre prospect for a solid bullpen arm. Especially if that arm is cheap and under contract for a couple more years. If they can't get a top shelf prospect for Greinke, I really don't have a problem riding him out anyhow.

 

There is no dominant team in the NL, and the Brewers in a strange way may have a better rotation for the playoffs than last year by replacing Marcum with a Fiers (if he's still "hot") or even catch lightning in a bottle with a guy like Burgos. At any rate, once they're in they have as good a chance as last year- especially if they come into the playoffs hot. (Which they would have to be to make it that far.)

 

Now, I could poke holes in all this. But this IS the OPTIMISM thread.

[slappzilla]

lol, I was actually thinking of starting a anti-optimism thread of sorts to do just that (poke holes in optimistic outlook for rest of season) but the true brewer fan in me told me not too.

[torts]

I'm all about optimism.

 

It's when someone says...

 

winning an average of 2 out of 3 games the rest of the way wouldn't be hard

 

...that I had to chime in with a bit or reality.

 

84-86 wins with help of a weak division and/or extra playoff spot and they could do it. I am truly optimistic that could happen.

 

they've got 33 games vs below .500 teams, if they win 2 of 3 it would be 22 wins.

they've got 12 against the pirates, if they win like they have over the last 5 years, thats at least another 9 wins.

 

that puts them at 71 wins.

 

if they win 1 of 3 of the rest of the 32 games, thats another 11 wins, that puts them at 82 win.

[RockCoCougars]

I think that they basically need to go at least 6-3 in the first 9, which I don't think is extremely unrealistic. If they can't take at least 2 of 3 at home from Pittsburgh with Greinke/Gallardo going, there are issues moving forward.

[torts]

I agree. I think the series against the Pirates this weekend is the biggest series going forward. cards and reds are good teams, but the pirates are riding high on some over-acheivers right now.. its a must win series

[JohnBriggs12]

I think 6-3 or better is what's needed over the next 9. I'll even go further. I think they must go 10-5 out of the break. If that happens, instead of selling, they'll be buying. The 28 games that follow that include 7 with the Cubs who could be minus both Dempster and Garza, 4 with the Phillies likely without Hamels, 6 with the lowly Astros, and 3 with the lowly Rockies, albeit in Denver. If they can go into that 28 game stretch .500, they are in decent shape. They've been a very good team in August over the years.

[Invader3K]

I agree they need to go at least 6-3 over the next three series to really be in it. I think that is achievable. I think the team will come into this homestand fired up and ready to win, judging by comments from Braun during the All-Star break.

 

The situation right now is eerily similar to the middle of the 2006 season, when Carlos Lee was still on the team. The team knew they had to win to keep El Caballo around, but they couldn't do it. That situation is mirrored with the Zack Greinke trade rumors. The difference is that this team is much more talented than the 2006 team was (at least in my opinion).

[igor67]

The team has had chances the last month or so to really change the dynamic, but certainly this is the time for that one big hot streak. You pull off an 8-1 mark and you pretty much cut that deficit in half in a week and a half. Not the most likely thing, but it can certainly happen. Just remember how badly the Pirates imploded at the end of July last year too. They might be somewhat better, but their offense is still pretty suspect.

[Raw Biz]

The optimist in me says Texas really wants to win it all so they will trade Profar, Olt, Odor, and Perez for Greinke, KRod, and Wolf.

[slappzilla]

I'd tank the season for that deal.

 

Get Nolan on the phone...

[Oxy]

The team has had chances the last month or so to really change the dynamic, but certainly this is the time for that one big hot streak. You pull off an 8-1 mark and you pretty much cut that deficit in half in a week and a half. Not the most likely thing, but it can certainly happen. Just remember how badly the Pirates imploded at the end of July last year too. They might be somewhat better, but their offense is still pretty suspect.

 

I'd say that the entire Pirates team is suspect outside of McCutcheon and Hanrahan. Do they even have another player on the roster that is above average? Do you want to rely on James McDonald, AJ Burnett and Kevin Correia? I don't think I'd trade any player on the Brewers for their counterpart on the Pirates except for our CF platoon for McCutcheon. It can't and won't last. Hopefully I don't eat my words this weekend.

[Fear The Chorizo]

The scheduling gods have once again done the Brewers a favor - 9 games against the 3 teams they trail in there division. Granted, they're currently behind a pile of NL teams for the wildcard spots, but the entire NL is a jumbled mess. Go on a hot streak against teams in front of you for 10 days and you shoot up the standings.

 

Two optimistic scenarios can play out...

 

1. The team plays well and finishes this stretch 6-3 or better, cuts the overall division lead in 1/2 and sets up a 4-team race in the NL Central while also climbing into legit wild card position.

 

2. The team struggles and finishes below 0.500 during this stretch, falls out of realistic contention, and forces Brewers' management to become sellers at the trade deadline.

 

I think the worst scenario is for the Brewers to go 4-5 or 5-4, and have management hemming and hawing about what to do.

[RockCoCougars]

I think the worst scenario is for the Brewers to go 4-5 or 5-4, and have management hemming and hawing about what to do.

 

Unfortunately, if Vegas were to lay odds, that would probably be the most likely scenario here. It's probably in the 50/50 range or slightly better that they win 4 or 5 of these games.

 

Though I hate calling for a sweep, I really think that the Brewers need to sweep the Pirates. If they do that, they would likely be only 5 or 6 games back. The Cardinals have a very favorable schedule coming up after the next week, so that series looms big as well.

[Invader3K]

 

I think the worst scenario is for the Brewers to go 4-5 or 5-4, and have management hemming and hawing about what to do.

 

Ugh. I really hope that doesn't happen. I can't take reading too many quotes from Doug Melvin like, "We think we're still in this thing," etc.

[Raw Biz]

I really don't care about winning the wild card, I think they should be focused on the division. I know they aren't actively trying to settle for the WC but I'm focusing on the 8 back in the division rather than the 6 back in the WC. I don't want to have to play a one-game playoff. If we did that and lost, it would be just devastating, especially knowing how many guys are walking away for practically nothing.

 

Basically what I'm saying is after this stretch, if they think they have a shot at the division, then fine. But if they're only shooting for the WC because they're like 4 or 5 back of that (but 6-7+ in the division), then I'd sell.

[torts]

The team has had chances the last month or so to really change the dynamic, but certainly this is the time for that one big hot streak. You pull off an 8-1 mark and you pretty much cut that deficit in half in a week and a half. Not the most likely thing, but it can certainly happen. Just remember how badly the Pirates imploded at the end of July last year too. They might be somewhat better, but their offense is still pretty suspect.

 

I'd say that the entire Pirates team is suspect outside of McCutcheon and Hanrahan. Do they even have another player on the roster that is above average? Do you want to rely on James McDonald, AJ Burnett and Kevin Correia? I don't think I'd trade any player on the Brewers for their counterpart on the Pirates except for our CF platoon for McCutcheon. It can't and won't last. Hopefully I don't eat my words this weekend.

 

Pirates are my #2 team, but I am 100% with you. McDonald is on pace for over 200IP, he had 171 last year with a 4+ ERA, the most innings he's pitched. I dont think he'll keep his level of dominance up. Mccutchen and Walker are the two hitters I think are for real on the team, the rest are all mediocre at best